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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #221
  • Dec 4, 2019 4:28pm Dec 4, 2019 4:28pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} that's the problem so far... but they are working on it... will be translated and published in English soon...
Given the high valuations I see, plus these divergences between many different indices, I am aware that many bull markets have ended with a rally similar to what we have seen since August,” firm founder Ned Davis said in a note.
One rally similar to this one happened between Oct. 15, 1999, and Jan. 14, 2000, just before the dot-com bubble burst. The Dow rallied 17% over 64 trading days back then. Another one took place from Aug. 16, 2007, to Oct. 9, 2007, preceding the financial crisis. In that time, the Dow jumped 10.3% in just 38 trading days.
Stocks were on fire last month in large part because of easier monetary policy and expectations that China and the U.S. will strike a trade deal. The Federal Reserve cut rates twice since August and has signaled it will keep them at current levels for a while. Also, China and the U.S. have said they were closing in on a “phase one” trade agreement to be signed before year-end, although President Donald Trump suggested on Tuesday that an agreement may not come until after next November’s election.
  • #222
  • Dec 4, 2019 6:07pm Dec 4, 2019 6:07pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} "martingale" is a losing strategy over longer term... proven by the mathematical "Game theory"...
Who's talking about Martingale? Just buying the US which historically has done nothing but go up despite naysayers like you. I've been buying US for over 35 years my friend. How's that for the long term?!
Freedom is not free
  • #223
  • Edited 11:01pm Dec 4, 2019 10:47pm | Edited 11:01pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Who's talking about Martingale? Just buying the US which historically has done nothing but go up despite naysayers like you. I've been buying US for over 35 years my friend. How's that for the long term?!
so what?... whatever's thrown up will eventually come down... your reasoning is no longer valid and irrelevant at this point as there is a technical signal pointing at the market turning south with a certain target located quite low...for you it also means that you will definitely get a great chance and an opportunity to buy US at much better market levels... same strategy, different prices...then just wait for another 35 years perhaps to cash it out...
  • #224
  • Dec 5, 2019 10:46am Dec 5, 2019 10:46am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} so what?... whatever's thrown up will eventually come down... your reasoning is no longer valid and irrelevant at this point as there is a technical signal pointing at the market turning south with a certain target located quite low...for you it also means that you will definitely get a great chance and an opportunity to buy US at much better market levels... same strategy, different prices...then just wait for another 35 years perhaps to cash it out...
I'm not sure if we go to 5,000 on the DJIA, there will be anyone left to buy anything as we would likely be in some sort of apocalyptic, nuclear winter type scenario.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #225
  • Dec 5, 2019 11:54am Dec 5, 2019 11:54am
Igrok, i've never really studied diamond patterns, but think i see (potentially) one here in NQ. Putting aside macro biases, etc., what is the expected outcome of diamonds?

I would see this as an expanding triangle that has now turned into a triangle which i typically view as having 50% chance of either direction, and 50% chance that the first direction fails.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NQ 12-19 (5 Minute) 2019_12_05 (9_54_20 AM).png Size: 89 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #226
  • Dec 5, 2019 2:25pm Dec 5, 2019 2:25pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
Igrok, i've never really studied diamond patterns, but think i see (potentially) one here in NQ. Putting aside macro biases, etc., what is the expected outcome of diamonds? I would see this as an expanding triangle that has now turned into a triangle which i typically view as having 50% chance of either direction, and 50% chance that the first direction fails. {image}
apparently, in this case it's not a diamond at all...a real and tradable diamond must appear at the very end of an easily identifiable trend... it cannot be built into some sort of another consolidation like in this particular example... also they are quite rare indeed...
  • #227
  • Edited 3:25pm Dec 5, 2019 2:41pm | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} I'm not sure if we go to 5,000 on the DJIA, there will be anyone left to buy anything as we would likely be in some sort of apocalyptic, nuclear winter type scenario.
theoretically possible... practically I doubt it... it seems that there are some other (not so grim) options exist... Mr. Mikhail Khazin, for example, has a theory that it will only mean the end of the modern capitalistic system, which ran out of steam, though then switching to something different, that doesn't even has its own definition yet... his economic model for the future looks like the split of the entire world into 5-6 separate and isolated from each other economic zones, each of which is gonna have its own currency... quite an interesting theory and logically flawless from my point of view... I'm insisting on a regular daily basis to translate and publish his latest book in English ASAP to make it public among general western population as I see it extremely important...
  • #228
  • Dec 5, 2019 2:54pm Dec 5, 2019 2:54pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} apparently, in this case it's not a diamond at all...a real and tradable diamond must appear at the very end of an easily identifiable trend... it cannot be built into some sort of another consolidation like in this particular example... also they are quite rare indeed...
Ah okay, got it - thank you -
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #229
  • Edited 3:18pm Dec 5, 2019 2:59pm | Edited 3:18pm
BTW here is yet another top Russian economist that supports my view on the future of the US stock market... Mr. Mikhail Delyagin... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Delyagin

he also thinks that Khazin's ideas are quite plausible... here on the video we're talking about the inevitability of the next economic crisis and it's political and social consequences for the general world population...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=qNxnIV-5Deo&feature=emb_logo
  • #230
  • Dec 5, 2019 3:31pm Dec 5, 2019 3:31pm
not long ago found quite an interesting prophesy which is about 40 years old... amazing interview.... seems like every word of it has come true by now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3qkf3bajd4&t=347s
  • #231
  • Dec 5, 2019 8:01pm Dec 5, 2019 8:01pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} so what?... whatever's thrown up will eventually come down... your reasoning is no longer valid and irrelevant at this point as there is a technical signal pointing at the market turning south with a certain target located quite low...for you it also means that you will definitely get a great chance and an opportunity to buy US at much better market levels... same strategy, different prices...then just wait for another 35 years perhaps to cash it out...
Buying dips will always be a relevant and valid strategy for the US stock market because it's the US economy which drives the world economy. Your technical signal may be valid for a pullback or even a significant correction of some kind at which time I will be there buying your stop losses on the long side when the market recovers. But a catastrophic drop would not only kill the US but also the world economy.

Predictions of another great depression are ridiculous. If that were to really happen it wouldn't matter if you were right because you likely wouldn't collect on such a catastrophic drop in the market. I'm nearing retirement so I'll soon be reaping the benefits of buying the US stock market for the last 30 years. But you keep predicting armageddon and selling.
Freedom is not free
  • #232
  • Dec 5, 2019 9:04pm Dec 5, 2019 9:04pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Buying dips will always be a relevant and valid strategy for the US stock market because it's the US economy which drives the world economy. Your technical signal may be valid for a pullback or even a significant correction of some kind at which time I will be there buying your stop losses on the long side when the market recovers. But a catastrophic drop would not only kill the US but also the world economy. Predictions of another great depression are ridiculous. If that were to really happen it wouldn't matter if you were right because...
it seems that even such a simple thing as commons sense has become extremely uncommon nowadays... therefore let's take current situation into consideration step by step:
1. DJIA (as well as other major indices) have more than quadrupled over the last 10 years... does it mean that the US economy also quadrupled over the course of this period?... take a look around and it will become apparent that this is not the case... the productivity of the US economy didn't in fact increase that much... so, apparently such a rise in the US stock market capitalization is quite artificial... that money being pored into the stocks didn't even exist back then... just freshly printed bucks... those are the fictitious money representing no real value in them... virtual capital I would say...
2. that capitals, that came out of nowhere being artificially created by the Federal Reserve only for the sake of making a false impression that everything is fine with the economy, perhaps can also disappear without a trace... therefore it seems that social, political and economical impact of such disappearance is quite hard to predict and estimate in advance... it may or may not lead to some sort of armageddon... at least we already know and have already seen that a similar drop in the Japanese stock market capitalization was unable to ruin Japanese economy back then...
3. technical signal is a technical signal... I'm pretty good in reading charts now and have been for years... it's definitely there and points out at the 82% potential drop with the probability of no less than 80%... it's an objective thing that has nothing to do with someone's strong beliefs in the US economy being some sort of a train constantly and gradually moving just in once and for all predefined in advance direction along the rail tracks...
  • #233
  • Dec 5, 2019 9:32pm Dec 5, 2019 9:32pm
here is another interesting story... have no idea what to make of it....

https://steemit.com/deepstate/@citizenpresscorp/usd14-3-quadrillion-lien-taken-against-all-u-s-land-real-estate-and-people-follow-the-yellow-brick-road
  • #234
  • Dec 6, 2019 3:13am Dec 6, 2019 3:13am
There is about as much chance of the Dow correcting to 5k as there is of Xi Jinping becoming president of the USA barring aliens landing or an outer space object causing chaos on earth, I do not doubt a correction is needed and overdue to the fact that a lot of stock over the past years has been bought back by companies in order to use as leverage for loans and the debt levels can not be sustained for ever without any significant increase in growth in the world economy.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #235
  • Dec 6, 2019 8:20am Dec 6, 2019 8:20am
80% certainty of 82% correction is pretty strong conviction.

May I ask whether you trade currencies primarily or equity indexes (or both equally)?

EDIT: Also, is the diamond pattern still valid in the DJIA? Hasn't it broken to the upside out of your diamond, or is that part of the pattern that leads to an 82% drop?
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #236
  • Dec 6, 2019 9:49am Dec 6, 2019 9:49am
Quoting jmflukeiii
80% certainty of 82% correction is pretty strong conviction. May I ask whether you trade currencies primarily or equity indexes (or both equally)? EDIT: Also, is the diamond pattern still valid in the DJIA? Hasn't it broken to the upside out of your diamond, or is that part of the pattern that leads to an 82% drop?
The Diamond pattern broke to the upside as you have said, the dooms day scenario is not upon us, now i will have to cancel my preppers underground survival bunker , lol
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #237
  • Dec 6, 2019 9:54am Dec 6, 2019 9:54am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} The Diamond pattern broke to the upside as you have said, the dooms day scenario is not upon us, now i will have to cancel my preppers underground survival bunker , lol
Perhaps the break to the upside of the diamond means that it will go up 82% with 80% certainty.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #238
  • Dec 6, 2019 12:18pm Dec 6, 2019 12:18pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} it seems that even such a simple thing as commons sense has become extremely uncommon nowadays... therefore let's take current situation into consideration step by step: 1. DJIA (as well as other major indices) have more than quadrupled over the last 10 years... does it mean that the US economy also quadrupled over the course of this period?... take a look around and it will become apparent that this is not the case... the productivity of the US economy didn't in fact increase that much... so, apparently such a rise in the US stock market...
I know what common sense is and it's not this ridiculous prediction: 82% potential drop with the probability of no less than 80%. If such a catastrophic stock market collapse occurred no one would make a dime. You call this common sense. If it's so common why are you the only making the prediction? "common sense...pfft!
Freedom is not free
  • #239
  • Dec 6, 2019 1:41pm Dec 6, 2019 1:41pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
80% certainty of 82% correction is pretty strong conviction. May I ask whether you trade currencies primarily or equity indexes (or both equally)? EDIT: Also, is the diamond pattern still valid in the DJIA? Hasn't it broken to the upside out of your diamond, or is that part of the pattern that leads to an 82% drop?
I don't really know how to explain my concept better than I have already done... I already posted all the pictures needed to get to the point and still there is some sort of controversy exists... so far, there is no diamond on the charts... that's quite obvious and can be seen from a single glance at it... there is however a broadening triangle still in the making, which has a good potential to turn into a fully legit diamond in about a year or so... IF and WHEN it happens then my outlook comes into the game...
  • #240
  • Dec 6, 2019 1:49pm Dec 6, 2019 1:49pm
Quoting Abe16
{quote} I know what common sense is and it's not this ridiculous prediction: 82% potential drop with the probability of no less than 80%. If such a catastrophic stock market collapse occurred no one would make a dime. You call this common sense. If it's so common why are you the only making the prediction? "common sense...pfft!
the more I read you and other people with similar views - the better I feel... the more of your kind - the better... someone has to become a source of profits for my trading operations...
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