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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #201
  • Dec 4, 2019 3:03am Dec 4, 2019 3:03am
Quoting Edd111111
Hi @Igrok, thanks for you previous replies have you been looking at AUDCAD at all ? daily and weekly show some diamond possibility{image} daily shown below
at first glance it seems like a fully legit single-diagonal reversal diamond pattern... though from the second glance it becomes apparent that there is no broadening triangle on the left side... the second wave down doesn't make new low below the bottom of the previous wave... so, it's not a diamond at all...
  • #202
  • Dec 4, 2019 3:22am Dec 4, 2019 3:22am
Thanks so much for the quick reply @Igrok. Your opinion is highly valued.
  • #203
  • Dec 4, 2019 3:24am Dec 4, 2019 3:24am
Quoting Edd111111
Thanks so much for the quick reply @Igrok. Your opinion is highly valued.
it's relatively simple... just pay attention to details...
  • #204
  • Dec 4, 2019 3:29am Dec 4, 2019 3:29am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Buying, buying and more buying. I'm buying dips, flash crashes and the like and will buy if and when the US market makes an official correction. I've become wealthy buying when everyone is predicting the "end of the US stock market" and panic selling. I bought when the market was "tanking" during the housing debacle around 2008-2009. In fact this single move on my part made me more money than anything else. If the US stock market "ends" then might as well throw in the towel because nothing else will matter.
"martingale" is a losing strategy over longer term... proven by the mathematical "Game theory"...
  • #205
  • Dec 4, 2019 3:36am Dec 4, 2019 3:36am
will endeavour, still aiming for around the 92 mark by Christmas. The Diamond would have implied a greater return. Thanks again , and yes I will look for the definite early broadening pastern.
  • #206
  • Dec 4, 2019 4:59am Dec 4, 2019 4:59am
Quoting Edd111111
will endeavour, still aiming for around the 92 mark by Christmas. The Diamond would have implied a greater return. Thanks again , and yes I will look for the definite early broadening pastern.
sure... wishful thinking usually leads to some sort of a dead end at best...not to mention the worst case scenario...
  • #207
  • Dec 4, 2019 4:59am Dec 4, 2019 4:59am
Igrok,
Where do you see gold if the DJIA drops to 18k or even 5k?
  • #208
  • Edited 5:55am Dec 4, 2019 5:43am | Edited 5:55am
Quoting timoportojr
Igrok, Where do you see gold if the DJIA drops to 18k or even 5k?
have no idea... on my level it's impossible to make such a complex projection in advance... it's just well beyond my analytical skills...making of any such a prediction would definitely be a pure speculation...
  • #209
  • Dec 4, 2019 6:12am Dec 4, 2019 6:12am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} "martingale" is a losing strategy over longer term... proven by the mathematical "Game theory"...
With no leverage and long time horizon, this is not true (EDIT: based on history of the DJIA/S&P/NQ100).

However, if you truly think that the DJIA is going to $5,000, Winston is also correct. There will be much larger problems than simply what to trade, more akin to the end of civilizations. Essentially you are predicting a doomsday scenario based on something that looks like a diamond in the chart? I'm not trying to be dismissive, but this just seems a little bit crazy.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #210
  • Dec 4, 2019 7:21am Dec 4, 2019 7:21am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} With no leverage and long time horizon, this is not true (EDIT: based on history of the DJIA/S&P/NQ100). However, if you truly think that the DJIA is going to $5,000, Winston is also correct. There will be much larger problems than simply what to trade, more akin to the end of civilizations. Essentially you are predicting a doomsday scenario based on something that looks like a diamond in the chart? I'm not trying to be dismissive, but this just seems a little bit crazy.
unfortunately, you're absolutely right... though the biggest problem is that being here in Moscow for over the last few months I've been closely communicating with some top Russian macro-economists... they are not that well known around the world, but are extremely well educated and with absolutely brilliant minds and are close to the Russian government... even to my own surprise, the fact is that they took my pictures and predictions shown and posted here quite seriously... and the reason for that is that they all have already come to some very similar conclusions but from totally different perspectives and absolutely independently from each other... they all are scared to death themselves... pretty much like me as well... I can only hope that we all are wrong on our expectations...
  • #211
  • Dec 4, 2019 7:42am Dec 4, 2019 7:42am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} unfortunately, you're absolutely right... though the biggest problem is that being here in Moscow for over the last few months I've been closely communicating with some top Russian macro-economists... they are not that well known around the world, but are extremely well educated and with absolutely brilliant minds and are close to the Russian government... even to my own surprise, the fact is that they took my pictures and predictions shown and posted here quite seriously... and the reason for that is that they all have already come to some...
Well, you all sound like smarter people than myself so I guess we'll see. But there have been similar predictions since the beginning of time, none of which have come to pass (yet).
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #212
  • Dec 4, 2019 7:53am Dec 4, 2019 7:53am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Well, you all sound like smarter people than myself so I guess we'll see. But there have been similar predictions since the beginning of time, none of which have come to pass (yet).
I cannot answer for others... I always express my own opinion only... though at this point I just have accidentally come across some other highly qualified people that agree with me...
  • #213
  • Dec 4, 2019 10:39am Dec 4, 2019 10:39am
this is one of those who agrees with me... Mr. Mikhail Khazin, macro-economist, presidential economic adviser, former vice-head of the Economy Department in the Russian President Yeltsin's Administration...
he has his own theory about what's gonna happen after the disaster strikes... and even wrote a book about it that was published just a couple of weeks ago...

here is my latest interview with him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=8fRypcRc60k&feature=emb_logo
  • #214
  • Dec 4, 2019 11:21am Dec 4, 2019 11:21am
its in Russian
  • #215
  • Dec 4, 2019 11:24am Dec 4, 2019 11:24am
Quoting Unitedgold
its in Russian
that's the problem so far... but they are working on it... will be translated and published in English soon...
  • #216
  • Edited 11:43am Dec 4, 2019 11:28am | Edited 11:43am
here is another one... Prof. Valentin Katasonov, former member of the Advisory Board for the President of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development...
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9A%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2,_%D0%92%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BD_%D0%AE%D1%80%D1%8C%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1JZAP_enUS813US813&sxsrf=ACYBGNQoR2PiqR5bRvBb269JSXBWGk58cg%3A1575474874961&ei=utbnXfamOp6Hk74P-_KOMA&q=%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2&oq=%D0%9A%D0%B0&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.35i39j35i39i19j35i39j0l7.177862.183629..186549...1.1..0.66.127.2......0....1..gws-wiz.....10..0i71j35i362i39.s8HrbKkRftY

he's currently the head of the school of economic development in the Moscow State Institute of International Relations

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_State_Institute_of_International_Relations

he's got quite similar views on the future of the global financial markets with quite apocalyptic expectations for the world economy in general...
  • #217
  • Dec 4, 2019 11:47am Dec 4, 2019 11:47am
My general take on all this is there is some sort of political motivation to these comments.

Again, the apocalypse has been forecast since BCE and yet to materialize. They, and you, may be correct, but on what time horizon? Why now? In 100 CE, those forecasters who "short the market" (different actions than would be taken now) would be sitting in enormous draw down waiting for their doomsday predictions to come true.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #218
  • Edited 10:09pm Dec 4, 2019 12:07pm | Edited 10:09pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
My general take on all this is there is some sort of political motivation to these comments. Again, the apocalypse has been forecast since BCE and yet to materialize. They, and you, may be correct, but on what time horizon? Why now? In 100 CE, those forecasters who "short the market" (different actions than would be taken now) would be sitting in enormous draw down waiting for their doomsday predictions to come true.
I have no stake at convincing anyone in anything... no financial, political or any other interest in it... just exercise my free speech right by publishing my personal opinion... everyone can take it into consideration or not at his own will and discretion... there is no ground for an argument... personally I never give a damn about anyone's opinion about the markets but my own...it's just a pure coincidence that this time my opinion got in line with someone else's in regards to the matter in discussion...
  • #219
  • Dec 4, 2019 12:40pm Dec 4, 2019 12:40pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I have no stake at convincing anyone in anything... no financial, political or any other interest in it... just exercise my free speech right by publishing my personal opinion... everyone can take it into consideration or not at his own will and discretion... there is no ground for an argument... personally I never give a damn about anyone's opinion but my own...it's just a pure coincidence that my opinion got in line with someone else's in regards to the matter in discussion...
I too am just stating my opinion, and don't mean to argue (at least not in a hostile way).
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #220
  • Dec 4, 2019 1:08pm Dec 4, 2019 1:08pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} I too am just stating my opinion, and don't mean to argue (at least not in a hostile way).
me too... besides, arguing about future makes no sense whatsoever...
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