Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2288 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #45,741
  • Nov 30, 2019 10:25am Nov 30, 2019 10:25am
i dug out my old laptop, so i can post charts.
Next post i will show very simply worded BREAKOUT TRADE RETRACE TRADE. lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #45,742
  • Nov 30, 2019 10:40am Nov 30, 2019 10:40am
I am looking for 5 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable example 2.PNG Size: 18 KB

7 candles A to H ( NO D).
A = Trigger Candle. High= 12882.......Low = 12851.. Range is 31.
B = Broke Low for +5.
C = Retrace back uo into Trigger Candle A.
E = nothing.
F =Broke Low again but nothing.
G = Kept going down .
H = If you tried to retrace this candle, you would of failed.

So, we made + 5 and then a retrace up.
Once the retrace breaks the trigger we can add a short.
How far will it retrace???? Answer = we do not know. Look at H, straight up and fail.

Lets say we entered retrace trade at 12861 ,,, it did move up more but then dropped.
We could of made 5 pips, or we could of kept it to the low of 12851 to make +10 pips, or below trigger line for another 5 .
These are the trades where we make the money to help fix bad trades.
Look at H. this retrace we would of failed. but instead of losing 31, if original trade failed, we could of lost ????in example 21 (not 31) or even less.
Ask questions
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #45,743
  • Nov 30, 2019 11:09am Nov 30, 2019 11:09am
Somebody asked about average daily range.
Chart explains,,,,, i could of used a better example, but hey ho, its saturday evening.
Charts shows open with a ((100 Daily Range )) Showing. <<<<<<< it isnt 100% exact but it shows what i mean.
Attached Image

X = open at 12300 <<< it isnt quite that .Daily Range High at 12400...... Daily Range Low = 12200

NOW WE HAVE MOVEMENT DOWN.
Attached Image

The Daily Range is still 100, But the 100 is now added to the lowest low so Candle A ..Low was 12205.
add 100 to 12205 = New Daily Range High =12305.

So, until the daily range is made, just add or subtract 100 from the current highest high or lowest low.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #45,744
  • Nov 30, 2019 1:22pm Nov 30, 2019 1:22pm
Quoting billytt
I am looking for 5 pips. {image} 7 candles A to H ( NO D). A = Trigger Candle. High= 12882.......Low = 12851.. Range is 31. B = Broke Low for +5. C = Retrace back uo into Trigger Candle A. E = nothing. F =Broke Low again but nothing. G = Kept going down . H = If you tried to retrace this candle, you would of failed. So, we made + 5 and then a retrace up. Once the retrace breaks the trigger we can add a short. How far will it retrace???? Answer = we do not know. Look at H, straight up and fail. Lets say we entered retrace trade at 12861 ,,, it did...
Nice.

For those who occasionally take an interstellar flight, you will recognise the overlap with what Billy is doing here with the Wick Zone technique.

Very strong methodology.
  • #45,745
  • Dec 1, 2019 1:06am Dec 1, 2019 1:06am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Nice. For those who occasionally take an interstellar flight, you will recognise the overlap with what Billy is doing here with the Wick Zone technique. Very strong methodology.
i believe so Lem.
What i am getting at is, to others
If a bar has a 31 range,
we can trade a first break and short, if it fails we lose 31 points.

If we trade the retrace only, (if it happens).AND if it fails, we will lose less .

Another trick, use 2 lots (break lot size into 2).
first break, make +5 with one trade and let the other run for a few more points.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #45,746
  • Dec 1, 2019 12:56pm Dec 1, 2019 12:56pm
Quoting billytt
I am looking for 5 pips. {image} 7 candles A to H ( NO D). A = Trigger Candle. High= 12882.......Low = 12851.. Range is 31. B = Broke Low for +5. C = Retrace back uo into Trigger Candle A. E = nothing. F =Broke Low again but nothing. G = Kept going down . H = If you tried to retrace this candle, you would of failed. So, we made + 5 and then a retrace up. Once the retrace breaks the trigger we can add a short. How far will it retrace???? Answer = we do not know. Look at H, straight up and fail. Lets say we entered retrace trade at 12861 ,,, it did...

Hi Billy, this is the set up for the 0800 15 min trade correct?
  • #45,747
  • Dec 2, 2019 1:20am Dec 2, 2019 1:20am
GM, GU 15min +5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 15m.png Size: 88 KB
  • #45,748
  • Dec 2, 2019 1:32am Dec 2, 2019 1:32am
I decided to not wait for the break of the 08-15 candle today due to the DPV being in the range. I seen a few rejections at the DPV so I decided to go in short early and it paid off. Currently +17 pips. Thinking of taking half and letting the rest run to yesterdays low.

Edit: Price has made it's way back up to the Lower Trigger of the 00-00 4hr bar. Now would be a good time to add to your short if you're in the trade.
  • #45,749
  • Dec 2, 2019 2:21am Dec 2, 2019 2:21am
Quoting sheppy
{quote} Hi Billy, this is the set up for the 0800 15 min trade correct?
Hi Sheppy, This could be the 15 minute bar or/and a 4 hour bar.
If it is the 15 minute bar you need a decent range, over 10 preferably. We do not want whip/
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #45,750
  • Dec 2, 2019 2:23am Dec 2, 2019 2:23am
Quoting bojack34
I decided to not wait for the break of the 08-15 candle today due to the DPV being in the range. I seen a few rejections at the DPV so I decided to go in short early and it paid off. Currently +17 pips. Thinking of taking half and letting the rest run to yesterdays low. Edit: Price has made it's way back up to the Lower Trigger of the 00-00 4hr bar. Now would be a good time to add to your short if you're in the trade.
yes it did , retrace back upto the 00-00 low, this happens quite a lot and its dropped. yaaaaaaaaaaaay
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #45,751
  • Edited 2:37am Dec 2, 2019 2:24am | Edited 2:37am
GU +5, I think this one would be a retrace trade?
I was thinking to aim for a pivot with the first trade (weekly pivot in my case) but market moved before I made mine mind up.
I'd say enough for one day. +10 is plenty
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU retrace trade.png Size: 83 KB
  • #45,752
  • Dec 2, 2019 2:25am Dec 2, 2019 2:25am
Cable, 00-00 4 bar, High broke for a few, then retrace to break low.

08-00 15 minute bar, Low broke for + 5%.

I had bit of trouble with Dax. I traded off the 04-00 4 hour bar, all ok again yaaaaaaaaay

Trade Well All.

T10-25
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #45,753
  • Dec 2, 2019 5:31am Dec 2, 2019 5:31am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Sheppy, This could be the 15 minute bar or/and a 4 hour bar. If it is the 15 minute bar you need a decent range, over 10 preferably. We do not want whip/

Hi Billy, I always aim for 5 on the 800 bar with the 000 4hr I just aim for whatever the range has been in the first 4 hrs as my profit tgt, but only on the counter entry after the first failurem today I got 9 pips on the 4 hr and 5 on the 15 mim 800am bar
  • #45,754
  • Dec 2, 2019 5:32am Dec 2, 2019 5:32am
Quoting billytt
I am looking for 5 pips. {image} 7 candles A to H ( NO D). A = Trigger Candle. High= 12882.......Low = 12851.. Range is 31. B = Broke Low for +5. C = Retrace back uo into Trigger Candle A. E = nothing. F =Broke Low again but nothing. G = Kept going down . H = If you tried to retrace this candle, you would of failed. So, we made + 5 and then a retrace up. Once the retrace breaks the trigger we can add a short. How far will it retrace???? Answer = we do not know. Look at H, straight up and fail. Lets say we entered retrace trade at 12861 ,,, it did...
Great explanation Billy. I think the reason this works so well (especially on the 4 hour bar which we use to correct failed 15 minute trades) is that 4 hour bars generally tend to break out from one side of the previous bar. Just looking back at the last few months, I would say that around 70-75% of the time a 4 hour bar breaks out from one side of the previous bar on Cable. Just a quick visual test. I haven't compiled any stats on this yet.
  • #45,755
  • Dec 2, 2019 6:08am Dec 2, 2019 6:08am
Dax this morning - one winner and one loser.....AND
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DaxMon2.png Size: 523 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #45,756
  • Dec 2, 2019 6:15am Dec 2, 2019 6:15am
And I wish I didn't finish at 10am....look at Dax chart for later on :-(
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #45,757
  • Dec 2, 2019 7:29am Dec 2, 2019 7:29am
Quoting turnip15
And I wish I didn't finish at 10am....look at Dax chart for later on :-(
EDIT : (Problem with Pc but now resolved) - Chart - what I missed :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAXMon2A.png Size: 474 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #45,758
  • Dec 2, 2019 7:44am Dec 2, 2019 7:44am
The Dow went South.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DowMon2.png Size: 423 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #45,759
  • Dec 2, 2019 8:04am Dec 2, 2019 8:04am
Quoting samuel2133
Hi friends, Long time to see. I hope you doing well, Billy, claudia, Lem, MrGreen and all. DAX opens these days are a pain in the a**. It barely moves and when it does it goes either direction (50/50). I am better off tossing a coin. Also there is no real surge in volume at the open, you have to wait several minutes sometimes hours before you get that spike from which you can relatively easily profit. Anyways, looking forward to this weekly (see attached file) inside bar to be confirmed by tomorrow end of the day. Yes, it can always bounce back...
LOL how did you like the breakout
  • #45,760
  • Dec 2, 2019 11:03pm Dec 2, 2019 11:03pm
morning all.

Cable, 00-00 4 hour bar. I am Long, the bar is 10 range so easy to scalp if it plays up.
ADR = 73. at this moment the daily range high = 13000 area and low = 12880 area.
it would be better for me to see a drop so I can short it.
t07-03
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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