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  • #621
  • Nov 27, 2019 11:49am Nov 27, 2019 11:49am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} With the EIA report coming up, it was probably a good call getting out of WTI.
Ef, turned the position and out with a small profit, looking at the Dow for a short, any views, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #622
  • Nov 27, 2019 11:51am Nov 27, 2019 11:51am
Quoting detector
Opened gold buy 1459.1
Still active with the long, been a bit of a ride, indicators (short term) looking to be coming around, want the longer time frames to turn for some advance, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #623
  • Nov 27, 2019 12:01pm Nov 27, 2019 12:01pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Still active with the long, been a bit of a ride, indicators (short term) looking to be coming around, want the longer time frames to turn for some advance, D
If the direction continues 1465 is the first target (200ma 1hr) a target that has been hit on most rises from lows, makes an obvious one, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #624
  • Nov 27, 2019 12:25pm Nov 27, 2019 12:25pm
Closed long in gold at a loss, chart turning, stemming the loss, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #625
  • Nov 27, 2019 12:29pm Nov 27, 2019 12:29pm
Opened sell on the Dow 28164 speculative, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #626
  • Nov 27, 2019 12:35pm Nov 27, 2019 12:35pm
Quoting detector
Closed long in gold at a loss, chart turning, stemming the loss, D
You'll get the next one champ! Good to see you working on the risk management.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #627
  • Nov 27, 2019 12:57pm Nov 27, 2019 12:57pm
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} You'll get the next one champ! Good to see you working on the risk management.
Thanks Li, yeah, have to cut, even if it hurts, the chart looked to be turning for the worst and wasn't going to be part of it, no regrets, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #628
  • Nov 27, 2019 1:14pm Nov 27, 2019 1:14pm
Re-entered gold, seems a little mad yes but all speculative if the Dow goes as expected, have the indicators down, my luck for direction is zero ATM, still, doing as the chart is telling me, gold long 1454.9, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #629
  • Nov 27, 2019 1:30pm Nov 27, 2019 1:30pm
Long at 1454.71@lot 10 SL 1453.64, its yes a bit crazy i am in only cos i look at 109.49 in 4 hr as minor resistance for UJ.

One big candle up for UJ i will be stopped out
Think Think Think.
  • #630
  • Nov 27, 2019 1:40pm Nov 27, 2019 1:40pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Thanks Li, yeah, have to cut, even if it hurts, the chart looked to be turning for the worst and wasn't going to be part of it, no regrets, D
You'll get used to it when you've found your system (speaking of your results you've found it ). It's all part of the progress.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #631
  • Nov 27, 2019 2:10pm Nov 27, 2019 2:10pm
Quoting detector
{quote} looking at the Dow for a short, any views, D
I don’t really have any short term advice to offer unfortunately. It’s amazing you’ve been able to repeatedly short this bull market though, when we finally get a correction you stand to do very well.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #632
  • Nov 27, 2019 2:42pm Nov 27, 2019 2:42pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} I don’t really have any short term advice to offer unfortunately. It’s amazing you’ve been able to repeatedly short this bull market though, when we finally get a correction you stand to do very well.
Thanks Ef, the idea was the short side would be on the break for madness, as I've done again, may or may not happen, looking for the domino effect, if the Dow tumbles it could be epic so jocking for the best position, that said it's defying gravity as ever, thanks for taking the time, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #633
  • Nov 27, 2019 2:43pm Nov 27, 2019 2:43pm
Got a signal on WTI to buy, closed the speculative gold to a more robust signal,58.17, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #634
  • Nov 27, 2019 3:00pm Nov 27, 2019 3:00pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Thanks Ef, the idea was the short side would be on the break for madness, as I've done again, may or may not happen, looking for the domino effect, if the Dow tumbles it could be epic so jocking for the best position, that said it's defying gravity as ever, thanks for taking the time, D
My pleasure detector. You remind me of Paul Tudor Jones who took a lot of shots at calling tops/bottoms and managed to be very successful at it.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #635
  • Nov 27, 2019 3:16pm Nov 27, 2019 3:16pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} My pleasure detector. You remind me of Paul Tudor Jones who took a lot of shots at calling tops/bottoms and managed to be very successful at it.
Thank you for the compliment Ef, although recent trades have not been as lucrative, seems I cannot get over that bar ATM, bit like the hammer game at the fair where you ring the bell, just missing the top however I have missed a few opportunities where I could have taken profit but the trades turned, this was my forte (sorry not boasting) but I've tried squeezing the big one and getting caught, change is not good, will go back to the old way, speaking of which, my Dow is showing a little profit, do I close and go all in WTI, think this is on the way to 60, but very unstable for an "off the cliff" fall, all that being said, I'm a little distracted ATM, thinking retirement until the new year, but cannot put it down when I see the charts, will just have to figure this out, hope your good and thanks again,D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #636
  • Nov 27, 2019 5:14pm Nov 27, 2019 5:14pm
Dow falling off a little, if it carries on in the same vein 27500 could be a target,D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #637
  • Nov 27, 2019 5:16pm Nov 27, 2019 5:16pm
Quoting detector
Re-entered gold, seems a little mad yes but all speculative if the Dow goes as expected, have the indicators down, my luck for direction is zero ATM, still, doing as the chart is telling me, gold long 1454.9, D
Closed gold for the record, seems the gap on open after the break will be filled so it will be back down at some point, GN all speak tomorrow, good chess, D
EDIT
WTI closed also.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #638
  • Nov 27, 2019 9:04pm Nov 27, 2019 9:04pm
I read somewhere recently that US 10y yield leads equity indexes by 21 days. I decided to chart this, the S&P is Blue and 10y bond yield is Red.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I admit the relationship looks flimsy, but if it actually holds it does look bearish for the Dow, Nasdaq, etc going into December.

I also made a longer term chart (with no offset) plotting equities against bonds. Notice the divergence lately... I think this is very interesting and is probably also a negative for equities.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 17 KB
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #639
  • Nov 27, 2019 10:09pm Nov 27, 2019 10:09pm
Quoting Ef5
I read somewhere recently that US 10y yield leads equity indexes by 21 days. I decided to chart this, the S&P is Blue and 10y bond yield is Red. {image} I admit the relationship looks flimsy, but if it actually holds it does look bearish for the Dow, Nasdaq, etc going into December. I also made a longer term chart (with no offset) plotting equities against bonds. Notice the divergence lately... I think this is very interesting and is probably also a negative for equities. {image}
Looking at the short vs long end of the curve, I wouldn't be very confident that we are out of the woods in terms of the curve inverting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dsfasfds.png Size: 32 KB


Quoting Ef5
and is probably also a negative for equities. {image}
Agreed. Correction seems overdue.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #640
  • Nov 28, 2019 12:01am Nov 28, 2019 12:01am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Looking at the short vs long end of the curve, I wouldn't be very confident that we are out of the woods in terms of the curve inverting.
While it isn't inverted anymore, the signal is already in as far as I'm concerned and I'm planning accordingly. I'm still thinking we get another push higher in the S&P since we still don't have a breadth problem and I'd guess we're still looking at a top around 3,200. We're not that far so I might have to revise it higher depending on how things play out. I'm still about 60% long.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
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