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  • #32,861
  • Nov 23, 2019 1:22pm Nov 23, 2019 1:22pm
Quoting kleybenny
{quote} Thank you for honest experience.... I'm only curious: how do you manage now this situation? Do you close this positions? Or do you hold now this trades and hope for better price to close? Thank you.
Thank you.Its a good question which I contemplated on Friday to take the loss at lowest level or let it run.I decided to let it run since both weekly candles on GC and GA closed bear red. GC bounced little higher then I anticipated since we got GDP next Friday...still had enough data to let it run.
I'll see how MM will push these pairs on new week and make fresh assessment.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,862
  • Nov 23, 2019 2:15pm Nov 23, 2019 2:15pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} If you dont want to get burn dont become a cook.Volatility is life blood of trading and I love it.To frame your money "hard earned" is actually not constructive mindset.Proper mindset should be its a tool to make money.Yes takes money to make money hence easy hard money is irrelevant. You should be looking to capitalize on red events and not fear it.There is certain amount of courage necessary to be become a trader.Its not for the cautious and faint of heart..Its a battle and you should be looking forward to it! cheers
I appreciate your comments and thoughts....as a trader we will never be successful if we do not come to terms with our own strengths and weaknesses. My weakness is holding multiple positions, on multiple currencies while experiencing a major draw down awaiting a market correction. I envy those who, like yourself and others in this room who can do that and remain committed to the process. Work in progress I guess...
  • #32,863
  • Edited 7:34pm Nov 23, 2019 7:19pm | Edited 7:34pm
Points that I am Considering Next Week. ( EDT TIME )


We have holiday in the USA Thanksgiving & black Friday on 28th Thu
So, pay attention information from central bank speak and trade headlines could rock the FX markets.
USD: Fed Chairman Powell says he is ‘very worried‘ about growing amount of US debt. He will probably speaks on monday
AUD: RBA Governor Lowe speaks on Tuesday
NZD: RBNZ Governor Orr delivers a press conference on the Financial Report Wednesday local time

GBP:: So many risk for me. I will not trade GBP until election.

Mon Nov 25



4:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate.......optimism.................94.9 94.6


A monthly economic report that is issued in Germany toward the end of the month. The IFO surveys over 7,000 companies in Germany to obtain their opinion of the current business situation and asks them to quantify their response by selecting good, satisfactory, or poor and provide their expectations for the future business climate using the same criteria
Back in October, the poll showed stability in business confidence, at 94.6 points. A minor improvement may be seen in the report for November.

Tue Nov 26


10:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence.......optimism.................126.9 125.9


The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer sentiment has been dropping from the record highs but remains robust. Confidence is correlated with retail sales. The CB’s figure hit 125.9 points in October and may tick higher now, ahead of Black Friday.


Wed Nov 27



8:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m .......optimism................0.2% -0.4%
8:30 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m .................optimism............... -0.5% -1.2%
8:30 USD Prelim GDP q/q .......................................neutral.................1.9% 1.9%

US GDP: According to the first release of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product, the economy grew by 1.9% annualized. That expansion rate is unimpressive in absolute terms but above the levels seen in the euro-zone and in other developed economies. An upgrade to levels above 2% would push the dollar higher, while a downgrade toward 1.5% may weigh on it.


US Durable Goods Orders: While the GDP report refers to the three months that ended in September, the orders statistics are for October – thus more recent.
Back in September, headline durable goods orders fell by 1.2% and core orders slipped by 0.4%.


Fri Nov 29



5:00 EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y ...............optimism..... 0.8%.........0.7%


Euro-zone inflation: While headline euro-zone inflation has decelerated to 0.7% – a multi-year low – the Core Consumer Price Index accelerated to 1.1%, a level that provides some encouragement for the European Central Bank. Similar levels are likely now


8:30 CAD GDP m/m....................................... X.X% 0.1%

Canadian GDP: Canada publishes its GDP reports on a monthly basis – providing up to date data. In the past two months, Canadian growth has disappointed, with an increase of only 0.1% in August and stagnation in July. The figure for September concludes the third quarter and thus provides a broader picture of the economy. The expectation is for a faster expansion now
  • #32,864
  • Nov 24, 2019 4:12am Nov 24, 2019 4:12am
Quoting ppxdf
Points that I am Considering Next Week. ( EDT TIME ) We have holiday in the USA Thanksgiving & black Friday on 28th Thu So, pay attention information from central bank speak and trade headlines could rock the FX markets. USD: Fed Chairman Powell says he is ‘very worried‘ about growing amount of US debt. He will probably speaks on monday AUD: RBA Governor Lowe speaks on Tuesday NZD: RBNZ Governor Orr delivers a press conference on the Financial Report Wednesday local time GBP:: So many risk for me. I will not trade GBP until election. Mon Nov 25...
Agree with you not trading GDP going forward until election DEC 12. USD index was pushed high last week due to China trade issues and may go into correction mode.I think EU may set the tone. Nov 19 spiked to 98.31 then dropped now at 98.27 98.50 strong Resistance
good work as usual
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,865
  • Nov 24, 2019 4:20am Nov 24, 2019 4:20am
Got this sell on Friday, EURGBP
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,866
  • Nov 24, 2019 4:20am Nov 24, 2019 4:20am
interesting site
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/
when you click on technicals you get the whole retail trading enchilada with all its glory.Find it amusing

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/technicals/
Note how this data doe not account any fundamentals just blind mindless oscillators and MA's
There maybe direct relationship 95% forex traders losing money following oscillators and MA's and why industry keeps propping them up.Maybe the best bait "just follow the arrow" MA's Oscillators! forget using your head forget tracing events news just follow the MA's and oscillators! 2k programs with nice arrows and bells that scammers sell on BS data.Yes I have attended one such event...did not buy.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,867
  • Nov 24, 2019 11:07am Nov 24, 2019 11:07am
Quoting Davit
interesting site https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/ when you click on technicals you get the whole retail trading enchilada with all its glory.Find it amusing https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/EURUSD/technicals/ Note how this data doe not account any fundamentals just blind mindless oscillators and MA's There maybe direct relationship 95% forex traders losing money following oscillators and MA's and why industry keeps propping them up.Maybe the best bait "just follow the arrow" MA's Oscillators! forget using your...
I agree that MA/OSC screener's like those are generally a waste of time. I do use Tradingview and have since 2015. Not so much as a trading platform then a charting program. I use it for quick market screening, notes, alarms, etc. Things that are unavailable on MT4. Their mobile app is nice too, as I can pull up the same pivot setups.

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Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #32,868
  • Edited 11:31am Nov 24, 2019 11:20am | Edited 11:31am
My Calendar Events week four November

Focus will be on USD, AUD, NZD, EUR.
It goes without saying that any US-China news on trade have direct impact on AUD and NZD.

Mon
EUR German Ifo Business Climate It’s scheduled with a forecast of 94.9, slightly bigger the previous month’s figure of 94.6. If green, may give some recover to EUR.
NZD Core Retail Sales q/q 0.5% 0.2%. Green is expected here. Any unexpected weakness in the incoming data could revive bets for further rate cuts by the RBNZ in the coming months, providing some correction os NZD pairs. AN on watchlist for longs

Tues
AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
USD CB Consumer Confidence Forecast to edge up from 125.9 to 126.9. UC shorts is on my radar if this comes red
NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report After the RBNZ’s hold on interest rates earlier in the month, the report may will give some clues on what lies ahead
NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks Due to hold a press conference about the Financial Stability Report
AUD Construction Work Done q/q -1.0% -3.8%. If red, could provide some boost to EA north
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Forecast of 0.2% from -0.4%. Could be a mover but I don't think it will impact much.

Weds
USD Chicago PMI Very green is expected here. Projection to edge up 47.2 from 43.2
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m Projection is to improve 0.2% from 0%. If red this will be nice for USD shorts. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure
USD Crude Oil Inventories Red here is good for CAD
NZD ANZ Business Confidence Previous of -42.4. If worse than previous will be good for NZD shorts. AN on watchlist for longs
AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 0% -0.5%. If green could give some boost to AN north

Thurs
EUR German Prelim CPI m/m -0.7% 0.1%
USD Thanksgiving Day Don't expect much liquidity in US session. Have a blessed Thanksgiving for you guys in US!

Fri
EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y Forecast of 0.8% from 0.7%. I am considering EA shorts if opportunities present and this data come red
CAD GDP m/m Forecast to edge up 0.2% from 0.1%. UC shorts on watchlist. BoC Rate Decision next week, something to be aware!
CNY Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.3. Green here is good for AUD and NZD

I'll be looking to short UC and maybe EA, NC and longs on AN, AU
Looking for trades on 61-100 zone always watching PA and news ahead.

Let's pile the pips!
"In the end you only trade yourself."
  • #32,869
  • Nov 25, 2019 5:19am Nov 25, 2019 5:19am
Quoting ppxdf
Points that I am Considering Next Week. ( EDT TIME ) We have holiday in the USA Thanksgiving & black Friday on 28th Thu So, pay attention information from central bank speak and trade headlines could rock the FX markets. USD: Fed Chairman Powell says he is ‘very worried‘ about growing amount of US debt. He will probably speaks on monday AUD: RBA Governor Lowe speaks on Tuesday NZD: RBNZ Governor Orr delivers a press conference on the Financial Report Wednesday local time GBP:: So many risk for me. I will not trade GBP until election. Mon Nov 25...

4:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate.......optimism................. 95.0 94.9 94.6



Price Action So Far: Last 4 hours :. market reacts that 95.0 as not yet satisfactory
  • #32,870
  • Nov 25, 2019 5:37am Nov 25, 2019 5:37am
Back at it again...my most profitable pair last week NJ
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Fortune favors the brave.
  • #32,871
  • Nov 25, 2019 5:46am Nov 25, 2019 5:46am
AUDNZD
As we approach the end of the month I submit an observation with respect to Monthly Pivots. I look at these monthly pivots towards the end of each month albeit briefly and rarely consider them of much importance for Davit style trading. However, this month will they be of significance???
AUDNZD is at an interesting juncture??
In the past 9-moths, this pair has bottomed 3 times at S100 - seemingly close to a 3-month cycle??
Each time, close to the end of the month or very early into the new month (August).
Although, August was a spike down, news related, the other "bottoms" showed indecision on the daily candles as the end of the month approached. Price action on the Daily candles as the month ends, may suggest we are approaching a reversal zone. I have stated before in previous posts on this thread that failure at S38/R38 is a familiar characteristic of this pair. Today, have we reached a reversal at S38 now?
With NZD and AUD News today it will be interesting to observe how this level for AUDNZD acts today and over this week before month end?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,872
  • Nov 25, 2019 6:13am Nov 25, 2019 6:13am
Quoting Gmo
AUDNZD As we approach the end of the month I submit an observation with respect to Monthly Pivots. I look at these monthly pivots towards the end of each month albeit briefly and rarely consider them of much importance for Davit style trading. However, this month will they be of significance??? AUDNZD is at an interesting juncture?? In the past 9-moths, this pair has bottomed 3 times at S100 - seemingly close to a 3-month cycle?? Each time, close to the end of the month or very early into the new month (August). Although, August was a spike down,...

I understood that Retail / Sale in a few hours, even showing green, we should consider that should not cause further decline in this pair, because probably is the reversal is coming?
have you started loading buying, or would rather wait for retail sale?
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  • #32,873
  • Nov 25, 2019 7:46am Nov 25, 2019 7:46am
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,874
  • Nov 25, 2019 8:10am Nov 25, 2019 8:10am
Quoting ppxdf
{quote} I understood that Retail / Sale in a few hours, even showing green, we should consider that should not cause further decline in this pair, because probably is the reversal is coming? have you started loading buying, or would rather wait for retail sale? {image}
I'm already long on AN since last week.

Early and wrong entry based on the rumored closure of phase 1 of the China-US deal that should have favored more AUD.
Now in DD for the moment manageable.
Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #32,875
  • Nov 25, 2019 9:59am Nov 25, 2019 9:59am
GBP is rocking once again, GA in particular is trading at extreme levels.

EG, GN interesting too, just a little behind, but again who is willing to take an unknown risk since pound could go hundreds of pips higher ?
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #32,876
  • Nov 26, 2019 6:10am Nov 26, 2019 6:10am
Hi guys AN is in nice spot
lots of positive rumors about China deal which will be + for AUD
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,877
  • Nov 26, 2019 6:11am Nov 26, 2019 6:11am
Loading some longs on AN

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"In the end you only trade yourself."
  • #32,878
  • Nov 26, 2019 6:18am Nov 26, 2019 6:18am
ATM its ranging so what I do when it does I usually trade 1 direction of BO in case that happens if not get out repeat.
If you can nail 10 pips 3-4tmes that's a daily profit without much stress.Unlike lot of traders I love range trading and trend trading.Its important to have flexible approach in trading not be fixated in particular style.Its a battle and you must adapt to conditions whatever market throws at you
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,879
  • Nov 26, 2019 7:09am Nov 26, 2019 7:09am
Stab at GA short, was too tasty to ignore. In light of Brexit, this year I've been avoiding GBP pairs as much as possible
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  • #32,880
  • Nov 26, 2019 8:23am Nov 26, 2019 8:23am
This happens over and over Price exactly bouncing from pivot and some still skeptical...Above left 38 nice bounce
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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