What increased your probabilities as a trader? | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Odds and Edge - Probabilities in Day Trading 1 reply

Market Statistics & Probabilities (requests welcome) 117 replies

Great Question, About Trade probabilities and MM 3 replies

Trading and Probabilities 3 replies

enoc's psychology&probabili ties thread 23 replies

Attachments: What increased your probabilities as a trader?
Exit Attachments

What increased your probabilities as a trader?

  • #61
  • Nov 20, 2019 3:14am Nov 20, 2019 3:14am
Quoting CashBox
{quote} Not sure I understand what you're asking about, but if my trade gets stopped out i have a limit order at the area of my stop that takes the same lot size as the trade that gets stopped out and this opposite trade averages a return of 1 to 7x my loss. the idea is...if price gets through my entry area and stop loss then it's strong enough to keep going in the new direction.
Thanks for making it clear CashBox.

It seems good, 1:7 average return from your demo account and looks like, it is paying your hard work
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #62
  • Nov 21, 2019 1:07am Nov 21, 2019 1:07am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} It sounds good, how do you manage that? ...I Just read this in your profile: Discretionary probability adjudication on MMs and Banks action. Mostly trading what's "cooking". Can you share some more, how do you know, or understand what MMs and Banks do?
- watching the whole fx market:
at any time looking at the entire fx market (also with % changes)
- discretionary probability adjudication on MMs and Banks action:
understanding sessions, derivatives, price-levels & and their connection
- trading most likely what's cooking:
understanding & seeing bias (where the music plays)

Banks and MMs not only make money from commissions, insider trading (piggy-backing, frontrunning client orders or besides some other manipulations), they also issue ("sell") tons of different leveraged derivatives. This market is huge and all big banks are involved.

Combined with excellent bias reading, you know which levels will be tested or become a breaching target.
You also know what will happen next when they've achieved their "daily goal" and trade accordingly with it (to,from,around these levels).

That's how.
  • #63
  • Nov 21, 2019 2:07am Nov 21, 2019 2:07am
Quoting The-Flipper
{quote} - watching the whole fx market: at any time looking at the entire fx market (also with % changes) - discretionary probability adjudication on MMs and Banks action: understanding sessions, derivatives, price-levels & and their connection - trading most likely what's cooking: understanding & seeing bias (where the music plays) Banks and MMs not only make money from commissions, insider trading (piggy-backing, frontrunning client orders or besides some other manipulations), they also issue ("sell") tons of different leveraged derivatives....
Thanks for helping The-Flipper. What type of derivatives are you using for levels?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #64
  • Nov 21, 2019 2:34am Nov 21, 2019 2:34am
Since volume in exotic K.O.s is almost twice as much as vanillas, that's them.

Usually for RN and (1/4 increments for lesser volatile fx pairs).
  • #65
  • Nov 21, 2019 3:47am Nov 21, 2019 3:47am
Quoting The-Flipper
Since volume in exotic K.O.s is almost twice as much as vanillas, that's them. Usually for RN and (1/4 increments for lesser volatile fx pairs).
Sorry that I bother you again, but I can not understand what the RN mean.

Also for K.O.s how do you find what is a barrier option and what is not from the net?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #66
  • Nov 21, 2019 5:02am Nov 21, 2019 5:02am
RN = round numbers.

EUWAX (Stuttgart exchange) or Scoach (Frankfurt exchange).
They are the biggest derivatives exchanges (exotic & vanilla) for retailers.
Trading directly with all major Banks/MMs via OTC is possible, too.

Institutions however trade the same and way more "instruments" & levels, but on a much larger scale and through other platforms/interfaces.
Especially in the fx market, not accessible for retailers.
  • #67
  • Nov 21, 2019 5:19am Nov 21, 2019 5:19am
Quoting The-Flipper
RN = round numbers. EUWAX (Stuttgart exchange) or Scoach (Frankfurt exchange). They are the biggest derivatives exchanges (exotic & vanilla) for retailers. Trading directly with all major Banks/MMs via OTC is possible, too. Institutions however trade the same and way more "instruments" & levels, but on a much larger scale and through other platforms/interfaces. Especially in the fx market, not accessible for retailers.
That is great, thank you again.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #68
  • Nov 21, 2019 11:22am Nov 21, 2019 11:22am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Thanks for making it clear CashBox. It seems good, 1:7 average return from your demo account and looks like, it is paying your hard work
Keep things simple.
This morning I entered with the trend on a currency pair and was wrong. I was stopped out and the trade was reversed. Made up the loss and hit my 3% target for the day.
Keep things simple.
There are emotions involved, but I followed my simple plan. When I'm wrong, I know things will work out...if I follow my simple plan.
Keep things simple.
  • #69
  • Nov 21, 2019 11:25am Nov 21, 2019 11:25am
Our profitability as traders increases each time we make a mistake and learn from it.

Fail-forwarding is essential and unavoidable.

  • #70
  • Nov 21, 2019 11:33am Nov 21, 2019 11:33am
Also, think creatively,
since if you develop the worst system in the world, it automatically also would be the best in this zero-sum market.
  • #71
  • Nov 21, 2019 11:39am Nov 21, 2019 11:39am
Just blew an account?
Bring with you what to avoid next time, expensive lessons will be taught.
The more expensive the more we will pay attention, haha
  • #72
  • Nov 21, 2019 11:46am Nov 21, 2019 11:46am
Quoting Lekkim
Just blew an account? Bring with you what to avoid next time, expensive lessons will be taught. The more expensive the more we will pay attention, haha
I have burned an account once and this tought me to stop over-leverage a position, because 100% wins can't be done after some big streak.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #73
  • Nov 21, 2019 11:57am Nov 21, 2019 11:57am
Test every indicator you can find.
Don't stop until you understand all the underlying 'mechanics', test thoroughly if you spot potential.
Save, discard and repeat
  • #74
  • Nov 21, 2019 12:00pm Nov 21, 2019 12:00pm
Structure-based price action trading with confluence of factors.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #75
  • Nov 21, 2019 12:03pm Nov 21, 2019 12:03pm
Regarding this threads vote:

All technical indicators are price-based, this concept you either believe in or u don't.
IMO: MA's and osc's only useful for visual pleasure. Fibonacci works great in theory and if we all would have the same price charts, however when that's not the case, those precise lines might become of no use.
  • #76
  • Nov 21, 2019 2:52pm Nov 21, 2019 2:52pm
Quoting Lekkim
Test every indicator you can find. Don't stop until you understand all the underlying 'mechanics', test thoroughly if you spot potential. Save, discard and repeat
But when do you stop searching and testing? It can go on forever. I didn't become consistently profitable until I stopped searching and testing and decided to do just one strategy with one currency pair. I'm thirteen years into this journey and three years ago I either had to stop moving from thing to thing or had to quit trying because it was physically, emotionally and mentally wearing me down. I decided to focus on a demo account doing one strategy: turned 10k into 600k in 2.5 months.

I studied that demo experience and:
1- reduced my leverage down to 1%,
2- started controlling my emotions by developing a close and reverse plan if I had a trade going against me during high market volume times (had to use it this morning)
3- created a spreadsheet that shows me the lot size for the day based on my 1% risk allowed and then took that and divided it by three so I could take 3 entries (accumulation) totalling 1% risk.
4- restricted my entry areas to only allow for the highest return, lowest risk, smallest stops (6 to 15 pip average stops) which allows for larger lot sizes and hitting daily goal faster...meaning, if you're risking 1% and have a 25 pip stop loss then the pair must move 25 pips to hit 1% profit verses if you're risking the same 1% and you have a 10 pip stop loss then you only need to move 10 pips to hit 1%. so, in the same 25 pip move you would make 2.5% return.

The list goes on, but again, when do you stop searching and testing everything? Why even search and test everything? Why not find a system that someone else made that has been proven to work and just learn it and do it? That will save years of your life.
  • #77
  • Nov 21, 2019 3:00pm Nov 21, 2019 3:00pm
Quoting CashBox
{quote} But when do you stop searching and testing? It can go on forever. I didn't become consistently profitable until I stopped searching and testing and decided to do just one strategy with one currency pair. I'm thirteen years into this journey and three years ago I either had to stop moving from thing to thing or had to quit trying because it was physically, emotionally and mentally wearing me down. I decided to focus on a demo account doing one strategy: turned 10k into 600k in 2.5 months. I studied that demo experience and: 1- reduced my...
Traders natural search of optimization should never stop, however, once you believe you got something that could bring you closer to economic freedom, you should prioritize time and energy on the development of that path

Yup, it sure is challenging, health should also be a priority. Well done with the demo and good you've found a strategy and money management plan that works for you You are right in, that it's important to understand that in general, leverage works against you. You also seem to be able to guard yourself with the patience needed.
  • #78
  • Nov 24, 2019 3:27am Nov 24, 2019 3:27am
Good day traders. In the poll I created with the title: Tool that you use for advantage the most the results are at the time of writing:

Oscillator 7 Votes 12%

Moving average 21 Votes 37%

Fibonacci retracement 9 Votes 16%

Other (please mention in the thread) 20 Votes 35%

As you can see most of traders use moving average for their trading, but with a big percent using other as a tool this is too close with 37% and we should give some base on the answers on this thread to understand how we are going to be better.

Also the smallest percent is using Oscillator, so it is good to avoid these kind of tools, because the biggest the chances of losing, we want to be sure and protect our money, if we want to.

Thanks for participating, this thread will be open and so the poll, so we can continue learning how we can increace our chances on probabilities and make more money.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #79
  • Nov 24, 2019 4:21am Nov 24, 2019 4:21am
HI,
Mate ... I see no reason to make any conclusion form this poll … why?
1. ONLY 57 participants …
2. We know nothing about them, are they profitable in long run? All of them? … or maybe only those using oscillators are profitable? You just do not know mate.
Strongly suggest do not stick o result of this poll because this statistic is absolutely irrelevant…
  • #80
  • Nov 24, 2019 10:19am Nov 24, 2019 10:19am
Quoting BlackNapkins
HI, Mate ... I see no reason to make any conclusion form this poll … why? 1. ONLY 57 participants … 2. We know nothing about them, are they profitable in long run? All of them? … or maybe only those using oscillators are profitable? You just do not know mate. Strongly suggest do not stick o result of this poll because this statistic is absolutely irrelevant…
You are righ, but there is a big difference in the numbers between the two (ma and oscillator) I am sure there are traders who can see the difference and trade succesfull with oscillators too.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
0 traders viewing now