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Pivot Trading

  • #32,741
  • Nov 17, 2019 6:14pm Nov 17, 2019 6:14pm
Quoting Egbert
{quote} Agree, there will only be one chance to close.
often happens almost all cases.May require London NY liquidity.Asian liquidity often not strong enough to change direction which as you noticed often continues same direction as NY close.You can actually design entire trading system around Asia only
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,742
  • Edited 6:33pm Nov 17, 2019 6:20pm | Edited 6:33pm
Well known trader here claimed after 10yrs of trading after loses fees he collected 50k.He busted his account...When his TE was up he was heavily leveraged and compounding same red positions over and over that after 10yrs of experience!!!!
At some point to be successful is having realistic expectation.That realization can do wonders and can change how you see the market.
Another trader started a thread trying to take 50 dollars to a million in a year.Again without realistic expectation is sure to fail.I firmly believe without proper mental outlook failing in forex is almost guaranteed.You can have 10 15 20 years trading experience and still lose.Step back! take mental inventory what crucial aspect is missing in your trading and work on it.
I can categorically say people who play chess without reading, studying ,going over great games or watch masters play will stay same rating irregardless of how many years of playing because your brain is not having mental shocks of new information hence your playing becomes habitual.
You can test this try doing tactic exercises 20 of them then play chess you will see vast improvement almost immediately.Why is this? You broke your own limitation.Trading is same way you can get trapped in your losing ways for years and not be fully aware.Break the cycle force yourself to improve!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,743
  • Nov 17, 2019 6:24pm Nov 17, 2019 6:24pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,744
  • Nov 17, 2019 7:10pm Nov 17, 2019 7:10pm
Points that I am Considering this Week. ( EDT TIME )



r61 made a great summary to follow. Thank you for that!!!
For my trades I will consider just a few more points which are these:
The US and China : Do We have agreement? if so, I will be happy with my long AUD
GBP: So many risk for me. I will not trade GBP until election.


Tue Nov 19




8:30 USD Building Permits.......neutral.................1.39M 1.39M

8:30 USD Housing Starts.......optimism............... 1.32M 1.26M



If both numbers rise, the USD could follow North. If they both drop, USD could follow south.. However, they may go in opposite directions – offsetting each other.


Wed Nov 20


14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes


FOMC Meeting Minutes: Last Decision FED cut rates but signaled a pause. Jerome Powell, later indicated some chance to higher than cutting them. The minutes will provide a closer look at the tendency among central bankers and Fed’s thoughts on trade relations, inflation, and employment are of interest.

.

Thu Nov 21


07:30 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts


last time cut rates and announced the restart of the bond-buying scheme.
Let's see where the train goes.. The document may show if they are convergent same idea or divergent opposite idea.
The Governing Council braces for the new president – Christine Lagarde. The euro is set to move..

10:00 USD Existing Home Sales optimism 5.49M 5.38M


In September, Sales of existing, or second-hand homes, have stabilized and stood at 5.38 million.
It looks like the outlook is for an increase, which is good for USD



Fri Nov 22



3:15 EUR French Flash Services PMI...................... optimism...53.0..... 52.9
........French Flash Manufacturing PMI..................... optimism...50.9..... 50.7
3:30 EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI PMI... optimism....42.9.... 42.1
........German Flash Services PMI............................. optimism....52.0.... 51.6
4:00 EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI......................... optimism... 46.4.... 45.9
........Flash Services PMI.. ......................................... optimism.... 52.4.... 52.2

France is experiencing moderate growth – with Purchasing Managers’ Indexes scores above 50. However, Germany’s manufacturing sector is suffering an outright slump – well in contraction territory – that has dragged the economy into recession. The German manufacturing PMI is the most important figure, and need to rise this number 42.1 scores is necessary to cheer traders. The euro-zone manufacturing PMI stood at 45.9 points in October and services at 52.2. It looks like the perspective is very good here
  • #32,745
  • Nov 17, 2019 10:35pm Nov 17, 2019 10:35pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,746
  • Nov 18, 2019 1:51am Nov 18, 2019 1:51am
I expect a bounce of GC and EG in these levels. Let's see the evolution ....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADDaily.png Size: 52 KB
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Trade What's Happening... Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen
  • #32,747
  • Nov 18, 2019 5:59am Nov 18, 2019 5:59am
Down she goes!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADM30.png Size: 143 KB
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,748
  • Nov 18, 2019 6:25am Nov 18, 2019 6:25am
Quoting Egbert
Down she goes!! {image}
He reacted to the level (50pips) ... let's see if it continues
Attached Image
Trade What's Happening... Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen
  • #32,749
  • Edited 10:44am Nov 18, 2019 10:30am | Edited 10:44am
EC going to good setup for quick scalping on pullback. Remember that EUR should will be strong;
being CAD weakest, I am not surprised if it reaches R100 by friday, depending on that here also
CAD Manufacturing Sales m/m -0.5% 0.8%
  • #32,750
  • Nov 18, 2019 6:21pm Nov 18, 2019 6:21pm
Trading extremes can be very profitable when you know how to do it ....and at the same time extremely unprofitable if your on the wrong side....this trade had absolutely no draw down and it was based on several factors, pivots, price action formation, session open and known retrace targets....plus correlations with the base currencies being cable and yen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,751
  • Nov 18, 2019 7:27pm Nov 18, 2019 7:27pm
Taking this against the trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDM30.png Size: 137 KB
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,752
  • Nov 18, 2019 9:12pm Nov 18, 2019 9:12pm
Quoting Egbert
Taking this against the trend. {image}
May I ask your reasons....what gave you confidence to take a long trade other than a little bounce?
  • #32,753
  • Nov 18, 2019 9:26pm Nov 18, 2019 9:26pm
Quoting Egbert
Taking this against the trend. {image}
I was hoping more down in this area...think there may be some downside overnight...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,754
  • Nov 18, 2019 9:29pm Nov 18, 2019 9:29pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} I was hoping more down in this area...think there may be some downside overnight... {image}
I will sell again from R38 if PA confirms.
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,755
  • Nov 18, 2019 9:30pm Nov 18, 2019 9:30pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} May I ask your reasons....what gave you confidence to take a long trade other than a little bounce?

PA and if my Angleator confirms.
Big rejection candle with daily open.
And in a day and few hours there is FOMC meeting minutes BIG FACTOR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,756
  • Edited 2:23am Nov 19, 2019 1:39am | Edited 2:23am
I have had this monster spike on my broker IC Markets for GBPCAD at time 2019.11.19 0:03 marking a high at 1.71792.
This didn't happen with Pepperstone, another broker I have accounts with.
The same happened for EURCAD.

Did you detect the same price spike on other brokers ?

P.S.
Davit, apologize for this off topic but I have some open positions on GC, if you want I remove the post
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Porta itineris dicitur longissima esse
  • #32,757
  • Nov 19, 2019 1:42am Nov 19, 2019 1:42am
Quoting bubincka
I have had this monster spike on my broker ICMarkets for GBPCAD at time 2019.11.19 0:03 marking a high at 1.71792. This didn't happen with Pepperstone, another broker I have accounts with. The same happened for EURCAD. Did you detect the same price spike on other brokers ? {image} {image}
Yes same with me on the day open, my spike at least is not such a monster
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCADM30.1.png Size: 152 KB
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #32,758
  • Nov 19, 2019 1:46am Nov 19, 2019 1:46am
LoL on Fpmarket i've got it the other way down...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,759
  • Nov 19, 2019 2:31am Nov 19, 2019 2:31am
Quoting bubincka
I have had this monster spike on my broker IC Markets for GBPCAD at time 2019.11.19 0:03 marking a high at 1.71792. This didn't happen with Pepperstone, another broker I have accounts with. The same happened for EURCAD. Did you detect the same price spike on other brokers ? P.S. Davit, apologize for this off topic but I have some open positions on GC, if you want I remove the post {image} {image} {image}
She was everywere Yestrday...
  • #32,760
  • Nov 19, 2019 2:42am Nov 19, 2019 2:42am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30.2.png Size: 152 KB
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
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