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What increased your probabilities as a trader?

  • #41
  • Nov 17, 2019 4:27am Nov 17, 2019 4:27am
Quoting heispark
{quote} One question. How do you know people posting here are winners? NONE of them has live TE or audited statements. You're simply wasting your time...... No one shares his edge in public forums. EDIT: The only guy I know who was 100% transparent was Hilmy83. See his 100% transparent TE in his profile. And see what happened to this smart guy recently: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...334231/page-15 People here are pretending they are...
ok lets do this if i showed you my real account what would it do for your trading >>>>>>>>>>>nothing
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #42
  • Nov 17, 2019 6:52am Nov 17, 2019 6:52am
Quoting Shaga
{quote} Hi, can i download this red/white indi somewhere? Or is it a self developed one, and you dont want to share it? Thank you Cheers Shaga
It does not work on Candle charts
R
Ronnie Renko
  • #43
  • Nov 17, 2019 8:37am Nov 17, 2019 8:37am
Took months of work , But it was worth at the end. A clear roadmap of every visible point. Did fetch all important levels in to one window.. Literally everything, Highs Lows , Supports , Resistance , Deviation zones, Moving averages , OB/OS Areas... added some of my momentum indicator to see how fast is price moving.. At the end it seems as a very good thing for a nested zones where price have good probability to bounce. Atleast it stops me to buy or sell right in to wall.. I gave up from EA .. Deciding to go with Semi auto way is a turn point for me. Even big companies interrupt their algorithms when they don't trust on market condition. Full automation is endless sea.. Semi-Auto is good.. I get my tool , information then wait for a good trigger.
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Take it easy.
  • #44
  • Nov 17, 2019 11:01am Nov 17, 2019 11:01am
Quoting Quants
Took months of work , But it was worth at the end. A clear roadmap of every visible point. Did fetch all important levels in to one window.. Literally everything, Highs Lows , Supports , Resistance , Deviation zones, Moving averages , OB/OS Areas... added some of my momentum indicator to see how fast is price moving.. At the end it seems as a very good thing for a nested zones where price have good probability to bounce. Atleast it stops me to buy or sell right in to wall.. I gave up from EA .. Deciding to go with Semi auto way is a turn point for...
It looks complicated to me, but it can give a good eye if you know it.

All the tools and strategies you mentioned are used by the traders and the institutions Globally, so it should have success too. What makes it special?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #45
  • Nov 17, 2019 12:11pm Nov 17, 2019 12:11pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} It looks complicated to me, but it can give a good eye if you know it. All the tools and strategies you mentioned are used by
the traders and the institutions Globally, so it should have success too. What makes it special?
It may seem complicated for untrained eyes but its just simple at the end.
Each level represents whether there is a zone or not. Blue for buy , Red for sell. The more blue you see at max score 10 , More levels will be nested there
thus higher chance for a buy. I wait like a crocodile until price reach to my zone with good momentum , Means it must spike right in to it . The faster it goes , faster will be the reaction....

So i have just fetched everything in one place to see their correlation. I was so impressed previous week when i called GCAD short when all of them correlated. Thats right , Those levels are used for stop and take profit points and i expect reaction. Im using statistical approach to take my entries. Full automation will fail. It cannot be automated fully due to changing environment of markets. Semi auto is the key for me over long term. I can just cherry picking when i see all pairs and all levels in my front. I can sit on my hands if i just don't like the markets.

Thats what i am doing actually , exciting times ahead.
Take it easy.
  • #46
  • Nov 17, 2019 2:38pm Nov 17, 2019 2:38pm
Quoting havo
1.- Ditching "timeframe" based chart, at the beggining i was using range bars (nice change), ended up using renko: miles ahead out of anything out there, plain and simple the BEST way to visualize the price movement in a chart 2.- Learning FOR REAL how to read OHLC (its all there, it literally Speaks o you what its going to do next! dont be lazy and do your job!) 3.- Spot the unbalance pattern and located in the right place in the chart 4.- Stack pending orders with a high % per signal (i go 20% and sometimes more, depends on the moment) Oh a few...

Can you please explain 2) on a chart?
Double the account
  • #47
  • Nov 18, 2019 1:19am Nov 18, 2019 1:19am
Quoting havo
1.- Ditching "timeframe" based chart, at the beggining i was using range bars (nice change), ended up using renko: miles ahead out of anything out there, plain and simple the BEST way to visualize the price movement in a chart 2.- Learning FOR REAL how to read OHLC (its all there, it literally Speaks o you what its going to do next! dont be lazy and do your job!) 3.- Spot the unbalance pattern and located in the right place in the chart 4.- Stack pending orders with a high % per signal (i go 20% and sometimes more, depends on the moment) Oh a few...
Hi havo, this is the best post I read in this thread between and others, but it is missing some chart examples.

Also you are mentioning that you are stacking orders, what type of orders stop, or limit orders?

Thanks for your time.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #48
  • Nov 18, 2019 1:46am Nov 18, 2019 1:46am
Does this still depend on the principle of command? Or is it just a theory?
  • #49
  • Nov 18, 2019 1:54am Nov 18, 2019 1:54am
Quoting Powter
Does this still depend on the principle of command? Or is it just a theory?
Hi Powter, can you be more specific, what "does this" is for?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #50
  • Nov 19, 2019 8:27am Nov 19, 2019 8:27am
Quoting Ced74
{quote} I am with you Havo...I have been trading Renko for 17+ years....Aussi kindly allows me to post on his thread........I Continue to play with the S35 plan.....So simple. Here is an example and not Cherry Picked ...How hard is this I ask. Cheers, Ron {image} {image}
Ced74,

Thanks for that post, you got my creative juices going. This is awesome!

Found an MT4 script for Renko, did one up on a 4h TF w a 75p box size on GBPUSD. This is 2019 data w Bollinger band
She's just about ready to pop!
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  • #51
  • Nov 19, 2019 8:31am Nov 19, 2019 8:31am
Quoting Quants
Took months of work , But it was worth at the end. A clear roadmap of every visible point. Did fetch all important levels in to one window.. Literally everything, Highs Lows , Supports , Resistance , Deviation zones, Moving averages , OB/OS Areas... added some of my momentum indicator to see how fast is price moving.. At the end it seems as a very good thing for a nested zones where price have good probability to bounce. Atleast it stops me to buy or sell right in to wall.. I gave up from EA .. Deciding to go with Semi auto way is a turn point for...
looks awesome, have a general idea what i'm looking at, any recommendations for further readings on this. Looks like predefined variables with certain levels or measurement, then you identify combinations of variables that give a profitable buy/sell position. For every pair....

I'd imagine that'd take months. I'm doing manual trading atm, but know i'll eventually want to script my own EA with what i've learned. Nothing as complex. I'm teaching myself python using Jupyter for data analysis. Any info/website recommendations?

Cheers,
Ryan
  • #52
  • Nov 19, 2019 9:49am Nov 19, 2019 9:49am
Quoting Ra.
{quote} looks awesome, have a general idea what i'm looking at, any recommendations for further readings on this. Looks like predefined variables with certain levels or measurement, then you identify combinations of variables that give a profitable buy/sell position. For every pair.... I'd imagine that'd take months. I'm doing manual trading atm, but know i'll eventually want to script my own EA with what i've learned. Nothing as complex. I'm teaching myself python using Jupyter for data analysis. Any info/website recommendations? Cheers, Ryan
Yes this is a confluence indicator. You may see examples in my journal. Im really impressed with the predictivity of it for certain points You may like to join in our group Send me a message i will give you the invitation so u can see how we are doing there
Take it easy.
  • #53
  • Nov 19, 2019 12:50pm Nov 19, 2019 12:50pm
Instantly, constantly seeing & understanding what's REALLY going on in the fx most of the time - much much earlier than the competition.
No mumbo jumbo BS indicators.
  • #54
  • Nov 19, 2019 9:41pm Nov 19, 2019 9:41pm
Quoting DonPato
I have a story very similar to the above member. However my turning point was when I realized that math formulas, algorithms, and calculations were absolutely worthless. They mean absolutely NOTHING to the market structure and how it works. I realized that if I base any kind of market interaction on any of these formulas I will continue losing. My epiphany came when I understood HOW the market works. Here is a brief summation: (1) Anyone and everyone who wishes to participate in the market must do so by placing orders. (2) These orders are made...
Absolutely agree for the need to understand market structure, the need to act like a MM by identifying areas that can be exploited. The one thing I find very useful is weekly pivot levels ( not daily, monthly or yearly) in my analysis....
  • #55
  • Nov 19, 2019 11:54pm Nov 19, 2019 11:54pm
Quoting The-Flipper
Instantly, constantly seeing & understanding what's REALLY going on in the fx most of the time - much much earlier than the competition. No mumbo jumbo BS indicators.
It sounds good, how do you manage that?

...I Just read this in your profile:

 

  1. Discretionary probability adjudication on MMs and Banks action.
    Mostly trading what's "cooking".

Can you share some more, how do you know, or understand what MMs and Banks do?

Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #56
  • Nov 20, 2019 12:51am Nov 20, 2019 12:51am
I voted 'other'.
What helped me become profitable:
- learning how to buy low and sell high. seems like a duh, but how often do you do the opposite?
- sticking with one thing until i mastered it, not jumping from strategy to strategy or indicator to indicator like you're on here doing right now
- keeping it as simple as possible
- using a trade copier like Pecunia's Synergy that has percentage per trade, max loss, etc so if i mess up in my demo master account my live slave accounts do not lose more than x percentage per trade or per day
- developing my own trading process, trusting it, and doing it over and over the same way even if there's a loss from time to time. i control whether i do the process correctly while i don't control what the market does
- taking responsibility for myself and my trading and not begging others for their trading set up, indicators, or copying other people's trades
  • #57
  • Nov 20, 2019 1:23am Nov 20, 2019 1:23am
Quoting CashBox
I voted 'other'. What helped me become profitable: - learning how to buy low and sell high. seems like a duh, but how often do you do the opposite? - sticking with one thing until i mastered it, not jumping from strategy to strategy or indicator to indicator like you're on here doing right now - keeping it as simple as possible - using a trade copier like Pecunia's Synergy that has percentage per trade, max loss, etc so if i mess up in my demo master account my live slave accounts do not lose more than x percentage per trade or per day -...
The one with Bold letters which I quoted looks interesting. Let me guess you are doing your trading and the master account which is in a demo account do the job in different accounts using smaller risk and when you are losing you are recovering every one real account separate, do you use different money management after a loss?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #58
  • Nov 20, 2019 2:17am Nov 20, 2019 2:17am
There is a million ways to skin the cat and to each their own. In my 25 years of active day trading one thing I have always found consistent with failure was the inability to control risk i.e. adding to losers, too great of size. I have seen so many traders with profitable systems proven over a period of time fail because of one bad trade on one bad day in which they let their emotions take over and decided to break their rules. It happens on a daily basis, ask any experienced broker. Anyone can develop a system that fits within their style, but very few can control risks, day in/day out over a long period of time. Anyone can say they risk 2%/5% whatever number, but few can adhere to it strictly long term. If you've traded more than 5-10 years, you know exactly what I am talking about. If your still a pajama trader, you will learn. All it takes is one day.....

So my answer to this would be developing the ability to master one's emotions in controlling risk and allowing your trade to run when profitable. Easiest way as we approach 2020 is too automate the risk and hands off once trade is in play. Also add to this, find a market to trade that fits within your risk profile. There is a vast world full of instruments.
  • #59
  • Nov 20, 2019 2:23am Nov 20, 2019 2:23am
I started being profitable as soon as I dropped the idea of there being any type of indicator which will make you win.
In my opinion indicators can be good confirmations but if your trades aren't based on either news or price action then you're not going to be profitable.

I have a small question for y'all tho, I've been profitable for months now getting a very nice ROI.
I get a lot of entries on the daily but I noticed that when markets are ranging it gets tricky.

Anyone have any advice on how to predict a ranging market as accurate AS POSSIBLE?
I'm not asking for some holy grail that will tell me when the market will range because I know that's unrealistic but some pointers could always help

Thanks, happy trades!
  • #60
  • Nov 20, 2019 2:39am Nov 20, 2019 2:39am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} The one with Bold letters which I quoted looks interesting. Let me guess you are doing your trading and the master account which is in a demo account do the job in different accounts using smaller risk and when you are losing you are recovering every one real account separate, do you use different money management after a loss?
Not sure I understand what you're asking about, but if my trade gets stopped out i have a limit order at the area of my stop that takes the same lot size as the trade that gets stopped out and this opposite trade averages a return of 1 to 7x my loss. the idea is...if price gets through my entry area and stop loss then it's strong enough to keep going in the new direction.
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