Of course, the big boys are expected to play around with the price in order to collect some money from stops. So, true to their nature, this is what they did for most of the day today … But, as previously said, I do not trust them… I trust the stoch gaps. So, price reversed UP as expected.
But… I still need to work on my patience… Patience is money… When I see a gap (as was the case on H4 this morning) I am in a hurry to enter…. Too early… So, the gaps show me in advance the next move but many times this is too much in advance. I need to fine-tune my entries so that I can maximise profits. Please help me fine-tune entries… Many people are reading the threat… but not many trying to help… As previously said, I am not selling a system here, I am trying to develop one based only on 3-different-period Stochastics (5,25 and 125). That’s it. If it works for me, should work for you, too.
Let me analyse what happened today.
We started the day with a H4 gap between stoch.5/stoch.25 and stoch.125 (see previous post). Price, however, did not go UP as quickly as expected and started hovering around that level keeping the gap as wide as it was in the morning. To understand the details let’s go to the lower M15 timeframe. I entered at point 1, seeing the nice up candle and having seen the large H4 gap… but…
- still a major gap on M15 between Stoch.25 and Stoch.125 (yellow box; it needs to close, thus price still has the potential to go down)… should have waited
- Both Stoch.25 and 125 still in a down-trend. No signs of reversal (no higher low yet, only lower highs)
- I expected Support line 1 to hold but should have waited for at least Trendline 2 to form or even better for support line 2 to form.
NOTE on trendlines and S/R lines: I find trendlines (sloping up or down) more reliable than the horizontal support/resistance lines (S/R). Among the S/R I find support lines that lie on previous support (point 2) are better (more reliable) than those that lie on previous resistance (point 3). In this case support line 2 is supported by a previous support while support line 1 is supported by a previous resistance. In addition, I see many times fake breakouts at S/R lines and much less at sloping trendlines. This is why one of my rules (from one of the above posts) is to enter on fake breakout of S/R lines.
The ideal entry of today’s EURJPY is Point 4. Why?
- Confirmed higher low on M15 and H1 of all the 3 Stochs (5, 25 and 125)
- No more major gaps on H1 which means no more potential for a down move. All stochs on H1 “oversold” (all are at extreme low point)
- H1 showing beautiful cycle completion which confirms the low prior to point 4…
- Failed (fake) breakouts of trendlines 2 & 4. Fake breakouts are ideal entries on their own…
Today’s lesson: the absolute minimum rule for a day-trade entry should be a confirmed higher low of Stoch.25 (preferably also of Stoch.125) on M15 & H1. Unfortunately, trendlines and S/R lines are not as reliable as we wish them to be…. Price broke several lines many times today… Stoch gaps are more reliable to show direction… The important thing to fine-tune now is timing.
Always easier to analyse after the facts… however, one thing is sure… whatever the news is and whatever the big boys do to prices…. Stoch gaps need to be closed and therefore they always show the direction.
Now expecting to finally go positive with my buy from this morning... Lost the day on this entry but will keep at least to Monday and even beyond.
But… I still need to work on my patience… Patience is money… When I see a gap (as was the case on H4 this morning) I am in a hurry to enter…. Too early… So, the gaps show me in advance the next move but many times this is too much in advance. I need to fine-tune my entries so that I can maximise profits. Please help me fine-tune entries… Many people are reading the threat… but not many trying to help… As previously said, I am not selling a system here, I am trying to develop one based only on 3-different-period Stochastics (5,25 and 125). That’s it. If it works for me, should work for you, too.
Let me analyse what happened today.
We started the day with a H4 gap between stoch.5/stoch.25 and stoch.125 (see previous post). Price, however, did not go UP as quickly as expected and started hovering around that level keeping the gap as wide as it was in the morning. To understand the details let’s go to the lower M15 timeframe. I entered at point 1, seeing the nice up candle and having seen the large H4 gap… but…
- still a major gap on M15 between Stoch.25 and Stoch.125 (yellow box; it needs to close, thus price still has the potential to go down)… should have waited
- Both Stoch.25 and 125 still in a down-trend. No signs of reversal (no higher low yet, only lower highs)
- I expected Support line 1 to hold but should have waited for at least Trendline 2 to form or even better for support line 2 to form.
NOTE on trendlines and S/R lines: I find trendlines (sloping up or down) more reliable than the horizontal support/resistance lines (S/R). Among the S/R I find support lines that lie on previous support (point 2) are better (more reliable) than those that lie on previous resistance (point 3). In this case support line 2 is supported by a previous support while support line 1 is supported by a previous resistance. In addition, I see many times fake breakouts at S/R lines and much less at sloping trendlines. This is why one of my rules (from one of the above posts) is to enter on fake breakout of S/R lines.
The ideal entry of today’s EURJPY is Point 4. Why?
- Confirmed higher low on M15 and H1 of all the 3 Stochs (5, 25 and 125)
- No more major gaps on H1 which means no more potential for a down move. All stochs on H1 “oversold” (all are at extreme low point)
- H1 showing beautiful cycle completion which confirms the low prior to point 4…
- Failed (fake) breakouts of trendlines 2 & 4. Fake breakouts are ideal entries on their own…
Today’s lesson: the absolute minimum rule for a day-trade entry should be a confirmed higher low of Stoch.25 (preferably also of Stoch.125) on M15 & H1. Unfortunately, trendlines and S/R lines are not as reliable as we wish them to be…. Price broke several lines many times today… Stoch gaps are more reliable to show direction… The important thing to fine-tune now is timing.
Always easier to analyse after the facts… however, one thing is sure… whatever the news is and whatever the big boys do to prices…. Stoch gaps need to be closed and therefore they always show the direction.
Now expecting to finally go positive with my buy from this morning... Lost the day on this entry but will keep at least to Monday and even beyond.
Target on EURJPY almost reached and I am out. I started seeing weakness in all EUR pairs going into next week and do not want to stay in EURJPY any more. Actually I entered sell on EURUSD. Why? See picture below. There is no way price can go up any more today... I entered with a small amount and planning to exit before market closes tonight.
This sell follows my thoughts on lower highs on M15 for an entry that one can keep for 2-3 H4 candles. I do no thave the time for 2-3 H4 candles but hoping for some pips within 2-3 H1 candles.
This was an overall good learning day for me; profitable, too.
Good weekend to all!!
This sell follows my thoughts on lower highs on M15 for an entry that one can keep for 2-3 H4 candles. I do no thave the time for 2-3 H4 candles but hoping for some pips within 2-3 H1 candles.
This was an overall good learning day for me; profitable, too.
Good weekend to all!!
Before going off on a relaxed weekend, let me just share how I do a fast screening for good entries in the morning.
Attached (the zip file) are the scripts I use to change the timeframe on all charts in a given profile.
I have a profile “ALL” which contains all (without the exotics) charts I have available from my brokers. One of them is giving me around 40 the other more but I still screen not more than 50 pairs. I drag and drop the script “TF_H1” into any of the charts in this profile and the script ensures that all charts within the profile “ALL” are H1 charts. Then I quickly browse through all of them looking for a higher low on Stoch.125 (green, to buy) or for a lower high on Stock.125 (green, to sell). If I find a chart with this pattern, I go into H4 and D1 to check whether a suitable gap has formed. If this is the case, I enter. This is a setup for a trade I hold for 2-3 days. If you want to hold only several hours, then drag and drop the script “TF_M15” and find the same higher lows and lower highs of Stoch.125 on M15 charts; and then go to H1 and H4 of that particular pair looking for a confirmation gap. You will need to get out of this trade by the end of the day (usually within 3-4 H4 candles, not more).
This is how the day starts
. This is how Monday will start…
Attached (the zip file) are the scripts I use to change the timeframe on all charts in a given profile.
I have a profile “ALL” which contains all (without the exotics) charts I have available from my brokers. One of them is giving me around 40 the other more but I still screen not more than 50 pairs. I drag and drop the script “TF_H1” into any of the charts in this profile and the script ensures that all charts within the profile “ALL” are H1 charts. Then I quickly browse through all of them looking for a higher low on Stoch.125 (green, to buy) or for a lower high on Stock.125 (green, to sell). If I find a chart with this pattern, I go into H4 and D1 to check whether a suitable gap has formed. If this is the case, I enter. This is a setup for a trade I hold for 2-3 days. If you want to hold only several hours, then drag and drop the script “TF_M15” and find the same higher lows and lower highs of Stoch.125 on M15 charts; and then go to H1 and H4 of that particular pair looking for a confirmation gap. You will need to get out of this trade by the end of the day (usually within 3-4 H4 candles, not more).
This is how the day starts
. This is how Monday will start…
Wow, just noticed while screening various charts.... these are like twins... different pairs, very different timeframes and yet action is almost the same... Look at the stochs.... so similar, same patterns, same entry points... Just a conformation that patterns are the same regardless of the time period.
All AUD pairs seem weakening going into next week (Nov.4th - 9th). AUDCHF seems easiest to forecast and I will be focusing my attention to it next week for my trading.
Except for Monday (Nov. 4th) when it could be still hesitating (so, flat to slightly down), I am expecting a sharper down move as a result of the RBA Rate statement on Nov. 5th.
Just a side note on my attitude to the influence of news on prices: NONE in terms of direction; BIG in terms of timing...
So, I do not know and I do not care what the RBA would decide, the chart is telling me that the AUD will go down after their decision (whatever it is). The time when AUD starts moving down, however, should be influenced by their announcement. Thus, flat to slightly down movement for AUDCHF (and other AUD pairs) before their decision but a stronger/increasing move down upon RBA decision.
Target zone for AUDCHF is around 0.6740-0.6750.
Longer term forecast: After Nov. 12th-13th, the up move should resume and could be generally UP till the end of the year.
Why a forecast like this: large stoch.5 gap on W1 which should be closed with a down weekly move next week PLUS lower high on stoch.125 on H4 indicating a short-term reversal to the downside. For the longer forecast, the stoch.125 has already formed a higher low on W1 and price has already bounced from a strong support weekly/monthly line. Also, D1 stoch.125 is in an up-move and I see no signs of weakening for the next weeks. Thus, a sort-term (Nov. 4th - 9th) down move, followed by resuming the UP move from Nov. 12th/13th onwards.
Any comments will be welcomed.
Except for Monday (Nov. 4th) when it could be still hesitating (so, flat to slightly down), I am expecting a sharper down move as a result of the RBA Rate statement on Nov. 5th.
Just a side note on my attitude to the influence of news on prices: NONE in terms of direction; BIG in terms of timing...
So, I do not know and I do not care what the RBA would decide, the chart is telling me that the AUD will go down after their decision (whatever it is). The time when AUD starts moving down, however, should be influenced by their announcement. Thus, flat to slightly down movement for AUDCHF (and other AUD pairs) before their decision but a stronger/increasing move down upon RBA decision.
Target zone for AUDCHF is around 0.6740-0.6750.
Longer term forecast: After Nov. 12th-13th, the up move should resume and could be generally UP till the end of the year.
Why a forecast like this: large stoch.5 gap on W1 which should be closed with a down weekly move next week PLUS lower high on stoch.125 on H4 indicating a short-term reversal to the downside. For the longer forecast, the stoch.125 has already formed a higher low on W1 and price has already bounced from a strong support weekly/monthly line. Also, D1 stoch.125 is in an up-move and I see no signs of weakening for the next weeks. Thus, a sort-term (Nov. 4th - 9th) down move, followed by resuming the UP move from Nov. 12th/13th onwards.
Any comments will be welcomed.
My best pick of the day. Not a real day trade; I am planning to hold it at least until the end of next week (ending Nov. 29th). Will monitor to make sure that no disaster happens but will try to not interfere with my buy positions. This is a little aggressive entry, since the day has just begun, however, I am trying (yet again), to enter at the lowest possible levels (which is usually a bad idea ...). Will see, fingers crossed.
Profitable trading everyone!!
Profitable trading everyone!!