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Time and Price Forecasting

  • #681
  • Oct 30, 2019 4:45pm Oct 30, 2019 4:45pm
An update to my USDCAD chart of a week ago (Oct23rd)

Comment.

1. Price fell a little further than I thought but reversed today to nearly touch the outer fork line.
2. It wasn't a perfect Gartley pattern but combined with a few other technical and fundemental factors this reversal was strong and quick.
3. Looking for a perfect Gartley is like finding a perfect hedge which only exists in a Japaneese garden.
4. The original target was adjusted slightly downward as the CD range expanded; the initial target is usually ,618% of that range.

Cheers,

S.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Gartley 2019-10-30.png Size: 75 KB
  • #682
  • Oct 30, 2019 9:58pm Oct 30, 2019 9:58pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Music and Math1.jpg Size: 59 KB

While we were discussing the relevance of Music To MathematicsAttachment g yesterday...Attachment g
Attached Image
Now I know where Gann got his Logo
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf epdf.pub_music-and-mathematics-from-pythagoras-to-fractals (1).pdf   7.8 MB | 5,264 downloads
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #683
  • Oct 31, 2019 2:47am Oct 31, 2019 2:47am
Quoting Swede
One question that bothers me regarding the Gann method as repackaged by Jenkins, Beck and all the other practitioners who have developed systems, and methods using Gann as the basis, seldom is Forex even mentioned or discussed. In fact, there are many fine posts in this thread with charts and explanations that are appreciated and considered, and the charts show very interesting areas of entries etc. But seldom is a live trade shown or the result of the live trade posted so all can see the value of the posters reasoning. Is it the fact Forex with...
Thanks Swede, for your honest and deep post

I am determined to see through Geometric concepts in Forex pairs.

Been heavily experimenting, and have never read so many books in such a short time

{Slight Diversion}
On this Forex price action journey, I consider having had 3 mentors:
1. Jonathon of forexschoolonline.com [ basics of trading naked price action ]
2. Captain Jack (CJ) aka John Saffron ( SHF and thecaptainschest.us ) [ that PRICE is not random, but directed. price patterns recur all the time ]
3. Pete aka DiamondMiner [ TIME & PRICE are the same manifestation, objective precision ]

CJ always held that ALL markets are manipulated and rigged (he traded both Stocks and Forex)
News is just a cover to move a market way more than they (real market makers) usually would.
This was his last post here on FF: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post11632795

I believe what we see as price levels (waves) or geometric relationships are all tracks of the Market Makers

I guess geometric concepts take some to practice, and MT4 is CRAP at drawing the relationships that we need

I agree with you that more live trades and reasoning would go a long way in cementing these concepts

{sorry for the long wind}
  • #684
  • Oct 31, 2019 2:55am Oct 31, 2019 2:55am
Quoting DiamondMiner
{quote} Swede, I believe these procedures work fine but in markets that are not manipulated by Sentiment, or at least currencies not manipulated much by the MM. That being said, it's not a pair of stretch pants with a elastic waist band, so one size fits all. To me, my take is choose Stock before Forex if you want to make money, stock will make you just as wealthy. P
Thanks Pete for this eye opener, your wisdom is always appreciated.

I have never traded Stocks before The nearest I have come is trading a few indices in the past

Have just opened a Boeing chart,...and feels like home ( same waves, M's and W's, etc), and tamer too.

Will give it a whirl ( and post up a chart )
  • #685
  • Oct 31, 2019 3:02am Oct 31, 2019 3:02am
GBPCAD long
Entered on 45 degree trendline break yesterday
Already out at top of the swing ( went in heavy, so didn't need it to go very far )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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.
  • #686
  • Edited 4:43am Oct 31, 2019 3:14am | Edited 4:43am
USDZAR: Building up shorts ( around area of Jenkins Secret Angle )

Missed the long train from the bottom.

This would either be:
1. Retrace before continuing long ( Level 1 to CJ or MarketMaker people ), or
2. Long was Retrace to the main swing before resuming another short cycle

Either way, if it does go down, ka-ching

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Edit: stopped myself out
  • #687
  • Oct 31, 2019 3:16am Oct 31, 2019 3:16am
Quoting selym_co
{quote} One live example (I will share the pic without any explanations - my boss is here ) My TP is just below second RES Best Regards {image}
Price was somehow stopped at RES +2, and now it is sliding towards RES +3 (I think)

Time will show everything - Best Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #688
  • Oct 31, 2019 4:54am Oct 31, 2019 4:54am
Quoting selym_co
{quote} Price was somehow stopped at RES +2, and now it is sliding towards RES +3 (I think) Time will show everything - Best Regards {image}

Target Reached
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDH1.png Size: 66 KB
Imagination rules the world ...
Selym Hyll Return This Year: na
  • #689
  • Oct 31, 2019 4:56am Oct 31, 2019 4:56am
Another one i'm watching ( to go short )

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20191031_euraud_h4_waves.png Size: 29 KB


.
  • #690
  • Oct 31, 2019 8:18am Oct 31, 2019 8:18am
fundiwambao,

Sure I could subscribe to that .

You probably have a longer term Bearish Bat and shorter term Bullish Gartley.

The latter may give you a bounce and the former may take you to a second target 1.27 CD extentsion to sub 1.60.

(You have already made the first target)

I have also added a PF or two.

Lets see

S.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD BB BG 2019-10-31_2.png Size: 110 KB
  • #691
  • Edited 9:23am Oct 31, 2019 8:57am | Edited 9:23am
Quoting fundiwambao
{quote} Thanks Pete for this eye opener, your wisdom is always appreciated. I have never traded Stocks before The nearest I have come is trading a few indices in the past Have just opened a Boeing chart,...and feels like home ( same waves, M's and W's, etc), and tamer too. Will give it a whirl ( and post up a chart )
Fundi, thanks for the shout out on post #683, but Fundi I am a lot of things but No, I am nobody's mentor. I've been a Chief Chemist, Gold Refiner, Miner, Chemical Engineer, Electrician, Jeweler, Founder, Pattern Maker, Leather Craftsman, Sculptor and even was made Chief of the Tribe in Tefeya, Sierra Leone West Africa but Mentor, No I am not qualified to be a Mentor. My Problem is after I accomplish my goal I move on to something different as I get bored too easily.
On the other hand: What I had provided you with already and if you traded Stocks is enough to make you all the money we'd ever need. What you learn in addition to that would only make the Cake Sweeter. You have a Bright Future.
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #692
  • Edited 10:47am Oct 31, 2019 10:14am | Edited 10:47am
Quoting Steve666
fundiwambao, Sure I could subscribe to that . You probably have a longer term Bearish Bat and shorter term Bullish Gartley. The latter may give you a bounce and the former may take you to a second target 1.27 CD extentsion to sub 1.60. (You have already made the first target) I have also added a PF or two. Lets see S. {image}
Steve666, you only just missed One Hugh Gartley that you could have got in on August 07, see the pic. I'm going to have to scan the pairs for you and give you the heads up, this is lost money here because of lack of awareness. Perfect Trend Reversal Gartley pattern. Entry would have been right at the Green Level 1.67970. Notice how the D leg reversal started exactly at the X leg level... Pretty Cool
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #693
  • Oct 31, 2019 11:39am Oct 31, 2019 11:39am
DM,

Patterns are certainly is in the eye of the beholder.

Not a classical Gartley where XD usually stops at .786 or .886. of XA.

In this case XD in my image is ~ 1.27%

Not sure why your programme is drawing XA n this manner perhaps just to illustrate an area under consideration.

I believe sometimes this pattern is called an Extended Gartley. Some may call it a Cypher.

I have marked on my image where AB=CD. Clearly CD is longer.

But I am not here to argue patterns or what they are named.

One could assume that larger the pattern then the longer the influence.

Lets see what happens.

This may be a good labratory experiment.


S.

Edit: I have added a modified image with a Schiff Pitchfork which nicely contains 2019 price action.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD BB BG 2019-10-31_5.png Size: 253 KB
  • #694
  • Oct 31, 2019 11:56am Oct 31, 2019 11:56am
Quoting Steve666
DM, Patterns are certainly is in the eye of the beholder. Not a classical Gartley where XD usually stops at .786 or .886. of XA. In this case XD in my image is ~ 1.27% Not sure why your programme is drawing XA n this manner perhaps just to illustrate an area under consideration. I believe sometimes this pattern is called an Extended Gartley. Some may call it a Cypher. I have marked on my image where AB=CD. Clearly CD is longer. But I am not here to argue patterns or what they are named. One could assume that larger the pattern then the longer the...
Steve, we're friends. In fact I consider you a very knowledgeable good friend. However, friends or no friends I wouldn't take that trade with the discipline I was trained under. I would have the former trade but not the latter, it doesn't pass the qualifying recognition with good symmetry. My point is: yes there are trades everywhere, but I will only take the trades that give me my designated edge. Just because there are harmonic patterns showing up doesn't mean they are good enough for me. I prefer to wait and catch the next bus. That is my opinion.
P
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #695
  • Edited 3:10pm Oct 31, 2019 12:16pm | Edited 3:10pm
Peter,

Yes there are trades everywher. No argument.

I don't trade FX, this makes me more objective.

I study FX because it affects some of the areas I trade.

Also, just trying to add what jumps out to me as a response (to fundiwambao) and as content to the forum.

I think this is in keeping with FF in that people put up their ideas for discussion, defend them and provide an idea followup all in a constructive manner.

IMHO, viewed this way this should be a very viable and long-lived forum as well as a library.


S.
  • #696
  • Oct 31, 2019 10:58pm Oct 31, 2019 10:58pm
Jenkins Brilliance never ends
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I am always impressed with Jenkins
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #697
  • Oct 31, 2019 11:36pm Oct 31, 2019 11:36pm
DM,

Yes that's impressive. Any reason why you statred your fans from the low price vs Jenkins who started them from the vertical intersection of the top and the 50% line. ??
  • #698
  • Oct 31, 2019 11:45pm Oct 31, 2019 11:45pm
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  • #699
  • Nov 1, 2019 12:07am Nov 1, 2019 12:07am
Quoting Steve666
DM, Yes that's impressive. Any reason why you statred your fans from the low price vs Jenkins who started them from the vertical intersection of the top and the 50% line. ??
Steve, I am trying to make it clear, it doesn't have to be complicated, use your imagination, there are about 47 different ways to get the same result. I like to first see what wants to in order to fit, by putting in a 1/8 or 1/10 cycles then, box in, square out and add circles or half circles., just as few test tell me what the pair or stock is responding to. Once that is established that stock pretty much stays the same.
P
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #700
  • Nov 1, 2019 12:37am Nov 1, 2019 12:37am
So said another way you are trying any number of combinations of lines from various spots to establish a vibration rate which you believe will continue in the future.

It might be more meaningful to use recent data points. Your examples are 10 years old.
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