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  • #461
  • Oct 27, 2019 5:26pm Oct 27, 2019 5:26pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Breadth is solid, I think we see new highs near term. Definitely wouldn’t short here unless it’s a quick scalp.
Cheers EF, I'm thinking 8090 or there about, any higher and I have it wrong, maybe the thought is to wait for this point and enter, it gapped though, they may take a while but they close, thanks for the heads up, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #462
  • Oct 27, 2019 6:08pm Oct 27, 2019 6:08pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Cheers EF, I'm thinking 8090 or there about, any higher and I have it wrong, maybe the thought is to wait for this point and enter, it gapped though, they may take a while but they close, thanks for the heads up, D
You’re welcome.

I’m on the other side of the trade this time around, but I’m pulling for you none-the-less! Given we have a new advance-decline high I’m thinking we see 3,050-3,100 SPX soon. Not sure what the NQ equivalent would be.

After seeing such good breadth, I’m thinking “the top” is going to be a little higher. We might be looking at SPX 3,200 before the crash.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #463
  • Oct 28, 2019 8:50am Oct 28, 2019 8:50am
US Dollar Index parked below 98.00, focus on FOMC, data
28 October 2019, 17:41

 

  1. DXY remains within a tight range near 97.70.
  2. US 10-year yields climb above 1.85%.
  3. US trade deficit shrunk to $70.39 billion in September.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a bundle of its main rivals, remains on the defensive around the 97.70 region, a tad below recent peaks.
US Dollar Index focused on Fed, data
The index met strong resistance in the vicinity of 97.90 during early trade, area coincident with a Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 down move and is looking to stabilize around those levels.
The Greenback came under some renewed selling pressure at the beginning of the week in response to a pick up in the sentiment surrounding the riskier assets on auspicious Brexit headlines, lifting GBP, EUR and US yields.
In the US data space, September’s trade deficit narrowed to $70.39 billion while the Chicago Fed index dropped to -0.45 for the same period.
Later in the week, the FOMC event is expected to grab all the attention on Wednesday, ahead of Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls and the ISM Manufacturing.
What to look for around USD
The index managed to regain fresh buying impetus and advanced to peaks near the 98.00 handle. Rising scepticism on the US-China trade front and worsening conditions in the Brexit process as well as the looser ECB stance are seen as key drivers for the price action for the time being, while market participants have already priced in another ‘insurance’ cut by the Fed at its meeting on Wednesday in response to persistent signs that the US economy is running out of steam somewhat. On the broader view, the constructive outlook in DXY looks a bit damaged but it still is in play amidst a divided FOMC vs. a broad-based dovish stance from the rest of the G-10 central banks, the Dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’.
US Dollar Index relevant levels
At the moment, the pair is losing 0.08% at 97.75 and faces the next support at 97.14 (monthly low Oct.18) seconded by 97.03 (monthly low Aug.9) and then 96.67 (low Jul.18). On the upside, a breakout of 97.89 (high Oct.28) would open the door to 98.35 (55-day SMA) and finally 99.25 (high Oct.9).

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #464
  • Oct 28, 2019 11:22am Oct 28, 2019 11:22am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} You’re welcome. I’m on the other side of the trade this time around, but I’m pulling for you none-the-less! Given we have a new advance-decline high I’m thinking we see 3,050-3,100 SPX soon. Not sure what the NQ equivalent would be. After seeing such good breadth, I’m thinking “the top” is going to be a little higher. We might be looking at SPX 3,200 before the crash.
Good call Ef, my short is hurting a little, best I can go for is a retrace to exit, price now at the extremities on the 4hr, if it's over bought may not even give me a bone, still sitting on it, historically it does come back but "when" is more the question, cheers D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #465
  • Oct 28, 2019 11:34am Oct 28, 2019 11:34am
Quoting Ll1979
US Dollar Index parked below 98.00, focus on FOMC, data 28 October 2019, 17:41 DXY remains within a tight range near 97.70. US 10-year yields climb above 1.85%. US trade deficit shrunk to $70.39 billion in September. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a bundle of its main rivals, remains on the defensive around the 97.70 region, a tad below recent peaks. US Dollar Index focused on Fed, data The index met strong resistance in the vicinity of 97.90 during early trade, area coincident with a Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 down...
Great post as ever Li, I opted to give the majors a miss and went for SGD/JPY, figuring a fall was coming, seems my judgement was akin to the Naz, wrong!!, well wrong if I call time, will hold thought and trust the chart, cheers, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #466
  • Oct 28, 2019 1:23pm Oct 28, 2019 1:23pm
Reminder

Earnings reports are coming out, many released after 16:00 ET. Tech stocks can react strongly, driving NQ.

NQ just had a massive drop, likely for disappointing earnings.
  • #467
  • Oct 28, 2019 1:26pm Oct 28, 2019 1:26pm
Yeah, I also have some reminder... Markets might be DEAD, specially at hours like this, before the famous FED talk... So your internet connection/ISP might be just fine... BTW I have checked my internet connection for the past 15minutes when I tried to actually trade this DEAD BEAT atm
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #468
  • Oct 28, 2019 1:32pm Oct 28, 2019 1:32pm
Quoting timingchain
Reminder Earnings reports are coming out, many released after 16:00 ET. Tech stocks can react strongly, driving NQ. NQ just had a massive drop, likely for disappointing earnings.
TC, if this follows what I have charted it could be as low as 7500, the 4hr is leading the way, a grand prediction some may say, the rise was expected and it could well continue, my short might not stand the margin, the price gapped on open Sunday night so if nothing else close the gap, as to holding for the targeted figure is another thing,D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #469
  • Oct 28, 2019 1:33pm Oct 28, 2019 1:33pm
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) fell short of analysts’ estimates for third-quarter profit on Monday.
  • #470
  • Oct 28, 2019 1:45pm Oct 28, 2019 1:45pm
Quoting detector
{quote} TC, if this follows what I have charted it could be as low as 7500, the 4hr is leading the way, a grand prediction some may say, the rise was expected and it could well continue, my short might not stand the margin, the price gapped on open Sunday night so if nothing else close the gap, as to holding for the targeted figure is another thing,D
NQ has recovered some from the drop, difficult to forecast with any confidence. But, 7500 is certainly within reach if earnings reports are weak.
  • #471
  • Oct 28, 2019 1:46pm Oct 28, 2019 1:46pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Good call Ef, my short is hurting a little, best I can go for is a retrace to exit, price now at the extremities on the 4hr, if it's over bought may not even give me a bone, still sitting on it, historically it does come back but "when" is more the question, cheers D
Thanks detector! Sorry your short didn't work out. I'm kicking myself for selling 40% of my equity holdings last week without checking breadth first. I would have made quite a bit more if I just held 3 more days... Live and learn.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #472
  • Oct 28, 2019 1:51pm Oct 28, 2019 1:51pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Thanks detector! Sorry your short didn't work out. I'm kicking myself for selling 40% of my equity holdings last week without checking breadth first. I would have made quite a bit more if I just held 3 more days... Live and learn.
Ditto Ef for you selling early, my position is still open, I may be holding a while, at a guess it could be at a critical point, if you made the call to close, you done the right thing, I've done it many times seeing the price keep going and kicking myself, but all to many times, a pat on the back as it turned, good call thoughD
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #473
  • Oct 29, 2019 12:46pm Oct 29, 2019 12:46pm
Hello all, hope you'r all well, Naz short still open, as is SGD/JPY, holding has been a bit of a pain, SJ seemingly loitering with intent, could post higher but still in for the fall, may happen then continue, still live though, Naz off its perch and coming back down, sitting just above entry point, all in all if they come to fruition, not a great DD has been experienced enough to warrant closing, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #474
  • Oct 30, 2019 12:27pm Oct 30, 2019 12:27pm
Quoting detector
Hello all, hope you'r all well, Naz short still open, as is SGD/JPY, holding has been a bit of a pain, SJ seemingly loitering with intent, could post higher but still in for the fall, may happen then continue, still live though, Naz off its perch and coming back down, sitting just above entry point, all in all if they come to fruition, not a great DD has been experienced enough to warrant closing, D
Spike on the SJ seems encouraging, indicators on the 4hr moving down so we may see the "intent" happen, also the 1hr showing what could be the Kansas shuffle,(Bruce Willis Lucky Number Sleven) volume/activity spike up, as is the price then a down, been holding for a while so hope the result comes our way.
The Naz has shown some "Grit" a stellar rise on a short position, had a few chances to close for BE+ but will still hold for the all important one if it comes, all in all not too much erosion, good chess all, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #475
  • Oct 30, 2019 2:47pm Oct 30, 2019 2:47pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Spike on the SJ seems encouraging, indicators on the 4hr moving down so we may see the "intent" happen, also the 1hr showing what could be the Kansas shuffle,(Bruce Willis Lucky Number Sleven) volume/activity spike up, as is the price then a down, been holding for a while so hope the result comes our way. The Naz has shown some "Grit" a stellar rise on a short position, had a few chances to close for BE+ but will still hold for the all important one if it comes, all in all not too much erosion, good chess all, D
Good luck. I'm still thinking NQ goes higher in the short run, but it's with a lot less conviction than I had earlier. ES is over the 3,050 mark I thought it would get to so I'm guessing it stalls out relatively soon. Maybe it gets to 3,070 before retracing to 3,020...

3,000 on ES has a ton of psychological significance. The bulls have battled hard to get it above 3,000 so if it goes back below it'll be depressing from their perspective. I could see there being quick mini-crash below 2,900 if 3,000 doesn't hold.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #476
  • Oct 30, 2019 2:56pm Oct 30, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Good luck. I'm still thinking NQ goes higher in the short run, but it's with a lot less conviction than I had earlier. ES is over the 3,050 mark I thought it would get to so I'm guessing it stalls out relatively soon. Maybe it gets to 3,070 before retracing to 3,020... 3,000 on ES has a ton of psychological significance. The bulls have battled hard to get it above 3,000 so if it goes back below it'll be depressing from their perspective. I could see there being quick mini-crash below 2,900 if 3,000 doesn't hold.
NQ reached a new high, but it could be building a multi-day top.
  • #477
  • Oct 31, 2019 6:03am Oct 31, 2019 6:03am
SJ has turned and now +ve, Naz still wayward but indis look to be showing a little divergence on the 1hr, it's not playing by the rules but could see a turn, the Dow showing some signs that it too could be a short, Naz could follow in the turn, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #478
  • Oct 31, 2019 6:09am Oct 31, 2019 6:09am
As forecasted the correction started, but definitely has not over
It can be a long and slow correction (like previous one) or a faster correction following with an impulse.

Watch it when the price reaches the green arrows for buys

Note: This is a counter-trend trade and the sell can place only after a sharp break out and a confirmation flag (but I took a small lot aggressive trade at the red arrow)

https://t.me/fxean/1034

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 51 KB

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...ion-on-GBPJPY/

Trade with care and stay green.
We can't control the sea, but we can learn how to surf the waves.
  • #479
  • Oct 31, 2019 6:19am Oct 31, 2019 6:19am
Quoting aariapoor
As forecasted the correction started, but definitely has not over It can be a long and slow correction (like previous one) or a faster correction following with an impulse. Watch it when the price reaches the green arrows for buys Note: This is a counter-trend trade and the sell can place only after a sharp break out and a confirmation flag (but I took a small lot aggressive trade at the red arrow) https://t.me/fxean/1034 {image} https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GB...ion-on-GBPJPY/ Trade...
Great analysis Aariapoor, I still had this on my list to come back to, previous stages while at this point have spiked before the fall, could be looking to join on a rise, thanks and as ever, great informative chartD
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #480
  • Oct 31, 2019 6:44am Oct 31, 2019 6:44am
Target for Naz,7680 if it goesD
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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