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Energetic H1 Strategy (Crude/Brent/Gas)

  • #121
  • Oct 18, 2019 8:56am Oct 18, 2019 8:56am
Quoting vpn
{quote} My 2020 hindsight is happy I didn't enter that short, lol! {image}I don't have as advanced a view on the charts as you, however.
Lol yeah....its a good thing, but Tragruel made me aware of something i missed on the 4th short for the day on that oil trade, our signal lines began flattening out and hinting at a crossing over and as such shouldve been the first sign to stay out.


Lol instead of having 3/3 ended up with about 3/4 bud...
Natural Gas toyed with me aswell today, the buy orders got missed all morning and wached it rally higher about two or so times when i manually entered it just dipped lower and took out the stops, but will relook at the trades again this weekend and try and see where and how we can try earlier reversal signals.....



But its also NB that we note we wont win all of them, so long as we win the majority im good
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #122
  • Oct 18, 2019 9:12am Oct 18, 2019 9:12am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Lol yeah....its a good thing, but Tragruel made me aware of something i missed on the 4th short for the day on that oil trade, our signal lines began flattening out and hinting at a crossing over and as such shouldve been the first sign to stay out. Lol instead of having 3/3 ended up with about 3/4 bud... Natural Gas toyed with me aswell today, the buy orders got missed all morning and wached it rally higher about two or so times when i manually entered it just dipped lower and took out the stops, but will relook at the trades again this...
this is what i meant with the fake dip on nat gas....my stop was just too tight near our 200 EMA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XNGUSDH1 stop run.png Size: 39 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #123
  • Oct 18, 2019 5:43pm Oct 18, 2019 5:43pm
Quoting MzansiObi
18/10/19 Natural Gas Still Bullish as per system rules Levels of interest 2.3939 2.3793 2.3490 2.3052 2.2441 Trade Safe {image}
Hope we all had a good week.

Just as a reflection point, we try and look at why things work and why they dont:

  1. for now the stop out on the last retest of the entry line can be attributed to the Stops being too close to the 200 ema, by the looks of things, the stops wouldve been better off slightly below the previous days low, as price has gone on to rally and test the previous days highs

 

  1. Trading this system off of the higher H4 time frame will require a little more patience as the amount of time spent in a position tends to be longer as compared to the amount of time spent trading it off of the H1 system.
  2. Should i trade off of the higher timeframes, i will look to reduce the lot size in a bid to better manage the associated risk.





Trade Safe

4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #124
  • Oct 21, 2019 12:47am Oct 21, 2019 12:47am
21/10/19
XTIUSD
Oil
Crude Oil

Price has dipped back towards our entry line, both the signal line and entry line are above the 200 EMA,


Long 53.64
Sl Below the 200 ema and previous days low.



Levels of interest for today
55.18
54.13
53.16
52.62
52.11


(i) Signal Line crossover
(ii)Entry Line Cross over
(iii)SL area below the 200 and previous daily low
(iv) Entry line
(?) Possible right shoulder
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CrudeOil Outlook (2).png Size: 53 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #125
  • Oct 21, 2019 1:32am Oct 21, 2019 1:32am
21/10/19

Natural Gas

Signal line and entry line flat, Prices still above the 200 EMA so while still bullish, no entry just yet till there is a clear signal between our signal line and the entry line. To Go long, the 15 EMA will need to get back above the 50 EMA and slope upwards....will then look for price to pullback towards the 50 EMA and go long....

patience





Levels of interest for the day;

2.3690
2.3226
2.3025
2.2544
2.2300
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #126
  • Oct 21, 2019 2:03am Oct 21, 2019 2:03am
Quoting MzansiObi
21/10/19 Natural Gas Signal line and entry line flat, Prices still above the 200 EMA so while still bullish, no entry just yet till there is a clear signal between our signal line and the entry line. To Go long, the 15 EMA will need to get back above the 50 EMA and slope upwards....will then look for price to pullback towards the 50 EMA and go long.... patience Levels of interest for the day; 2.3690 2.3226 2.3025 2.2544 2.2300
Just updated the chart to look at the pattern from last week, The Head and Shoulder setup that formed but needs the Right shoulder to hold and price to break the neckline which lies in tandem with the 200 EMA, so incorporating this into our system, price should rally and open up the zone/area between the signal line and entry line, and stops below 200 ema and the previous daily low for longs..... the flat entry and signal line show us how PA is deciding whether or not to break the neckline or to use it as support, we remain patient and let price show us the way....


Green pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Natgas Last Week (2).png Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NatGas Current (2).png Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NatGasMondayRev (2).png Size: 69 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #127
  • Oct 21, 2019 3:11am Oct 21, 2019 3:11am
Quoting MzansiObi
21/10/19 XTIUSD Oil Crude Oil Price has dipped back towards our entry line, both the signal line and entry line are above the 200 EMA, Long 53.64 Sl Below the 200 ema and previous days low. Levels of interest for today 55.18 54.13 53.16 52.62 52.11 (i) Signal Line crossover (ii)Entry Line Cross over (iii)SL area below the 200 and previous daily low (iv) Entry line (?) Possible right shoulder {image}
Partial Profits taken, Stops taken out for minor profit...
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #128
  • Oct 21, 2019 4:07am Oct 21, 2019 4:07am
21/10/2019


XBRUSD

Brent Oil

Levels of Interest
60.88
60.1
59.08
58.57
57.98


Sell Order Filled on the tag of the
50 EMA entry Line...



Stops at BE Plus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XBRUSDH1Sell Setup.png Size: 39 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #129
  • Oct 21, 2019 2:24pm Oct 21, 2019 2:24pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Hope we all had a good week. Just as a reflection point, we try and look at why things work and why they dont: for now the stop out on the last retest of the entry line can be attributed to the Stops being too close to the 200 ema, by the looks of things, the stops wouldve been better off slightly below the previous days low, as price has gone on to rally and test the previous days highs Trading this system off of the higher H4 time frame will require a little more patience as the amount of time spent in a position tends to be longer as...

Very smart tips all around, like to see the openness about improvement!

"by the looks of things, the stops wouldve been better off slightly below the previous days low,"

Sorry, is this a general rule you are implementing or is that a specific observation about that trade?
  • #130
  • Oct 21, 2019 2:28pm Oct 21, 2019 2:28pm
Quoting nastynatty
{quote} Very smart tips all around, like to see the openness about improvement! "by the looks of things, the stops wouldve been better off slightly below the previous days low," Sorry, is this a general rule you are implementing or is that a specific observation about that trade?
Hey Bud,

Been looking at previous setups etc and it seems it may be one that we should be looking to implement across most setups, but we would need to use our discretion regarding this, as sometimes price may rally before dropping abruptly, as such, in such circumstances it becomes wise to maybe alter the position size or use the 200 ema handle as we have been doing as a guideline, and place the stops a couple of pips slightly below or above it...
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #131
  • Oct 21, 2019 2:44pm Oct 21, 2019 2:44pm
Quoting MzansiObi
21/10/2019 XBRUSD Brent Oil Levels of Interest 60.88 60.1 59.08 58.57 57.98 Sell Order Filled on the tag of the 50 EMA entry Line... Stops at BE Plus {image}
another setup on the cards....


(i) Bearish crossover occurs
(ii) Entry Level around the 50EMA mark
(iii) Stop Level in slightly above the 200 EMA and near that shoulder level, so looking at the handle to act as resistance for any possible bullish retest of the area...


The Rsi is sloping upwards so looking at that confirming prices heading towards our entry level, the stochs are also nearing that 80 mark and will look for the bearish crossover to validate the bearish move again....

We remain Patient though....


Green Pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XBRUSDH1EveningReview_LI.jpg Size: 780 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #132
  • Oct 21, 2019 11:17pm Oct 21, 2019 11:17pm
22/10/19

Morning Traders
Oil
Brent
XBRUSD

Current structure showing bearish setup on the formation.
Both our leading and entry emas have crossed below our longer term 200 EMA...
As such, outlook remains to look for possibly rallies to sell.


Sell limit
59.38
SL above the 200 EMA and or slightly above previous days High

Levels of interest
60.72
59.26
58.59
57.90
57.54

(i) Crossover
(ii) Entry Line
(iii) Stop Loss zone, above 200 EMA and prev Daily High..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XBRUSDH1MorningReview_LI.jpg Size: 825 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #133
  • Oct 21, 2019 11:53pm Oct 21, 2019 11:53pm
22/10/19

Morning Traders
Oil
Crude
XTIUSD

Current showing Hints of a bearish setup continuation,
The leading EMA(Blue) has crossed over and we waiting on PA to Pull our entry line
below the 200 EMA as it is currently sitting flat in line with the 200 EMA.
As such the outlook here for the day ahead is to wait for our entry line to dip below the 200 EMA
and enter short, as Tragruel highlighted, when flat stay out.....


Intra day levels of interest
54.96
53.58
52.86
52.17
51.95


(i) Leading line cross over
(ii) Flat entry line that isnt below the 200
(iii) Stop handle for sell setup, above the 200 and previous daily High
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XTIUSDH1MorningReview_LI.jpg Size: 716 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #134
  • Oct 22, 2019 1:48am Oct 22, 2019 1:48am
22/10/19

Morning Traders
Gas
Natural Gas
XNGUSD

Current structure is setup for sell setup, will look to continue the momentum
from yesterdays bearish momentum, as things stand
both or leading line and entry line have confirmed the cross-below the 200

As such waiting on price to pull back towards the entry line

Sell Limit 2.2688
SL above 200 and previous days high



Levels of interest for today

2.3117
2.2709
2.1877
2.1629
2.1443

(i) Confirmation Cross
(ii) Stop loss zone
(iii) Entry line


Trade Safe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XNGUSDH1SellSetup_LI.jpg Size: 745 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #135
  • Oct 22, 2019 7:03am Oct 22, 2019 7:03am
Quoting MzansiObi
22/10/19 Morning Traders Oil Brent XBRUSD Current structure showing bearish setup on the formation. Both our leading and entry emas have crossed below our longer term 200 EMA... As such, outlook remains to look for possibly rallies to sell. Sell limit 59.38 SL above the 200 EMA and or slightly above previous days High Levels of interest 60.72 59.26 58.59 57.90 57.54 (i) Crossover (ii) Entry Line (iii) Stop Loss zone, above 200 EMA and prev Daily High.. {image}
Update:
Short limit Order filled, Stops in place just above the 200 which has been capping prices and we just had the first bearish hourly close near the handle so lets see how it goes stops are also above previous days High, Lets see.
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #136
  • Oct 22, 2019 7:26am Oct 22, 2019 7:26am
Quoting MzansiObi
22/10/19 Morning Traders Oil Crude XTIUSD Current showing Hints of a bearish setup continuation, The leading EMA(Blue) has crossed over and we waiting on PA to Pull our entry line below the 200 EMA as it is currently sitting flat in line with the 200 EMA. As such the outlook here for the day ahead is to wait for our entry line to dip below the 200 EMA and enter short, as Tragruel highlighted, when flat stay out..... Intra day levels of interest 54.96 53.58 52.86 52.17 51.95 (i) Leading line cross over (ii) Flat entry line that isnt below the 200...
Update;
Good thing we waited on this one....Shout out to Tragruel, the flat entry line from this morning never made its way back below the 200 to give us the last confirmation signal to go short, as things stand it was a good call as price is trading back above the 200 mark....


Trade Safe
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #137
  • Oct 22, 2019 7:42am Oct 22, 2019 7:42am
Quoting MzansiObi
22/10/19 Morning Traders Gas Natural Gas XNGUSD Current structure is setup for sell setup, will look to continue the momentum from yesterdays bearish momentum, as things stand both or leading line and entry line have confirmed the cross-below the 200 As such waiting on price to pull back towards the entry line Sell Limit 2.2688 SL above 200 and previous days high Levels of interest for today 2.3117 2.2709 2.1877 2.1629 2.1443 (i) Confirmation Cross (ii) Stop loss zone (iii) Entry line Trade Safe {image}
Limit order to the short side not filled, it tagged the entry line and dipped back lower without, watching for retest to the level....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #138
  • Oct 22, 2019 7:52am Oct 22, 2019 7:52am
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Limit order to the short side not filled, it tagged the entry line and dipped back lower without, watching for retest to the level....
(i) Missed short at the entry line
(ii) for some reason the alert set didnt go off....


Oh well, lets wait for the next setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XNGUSDH1Missed Short Setup_LI.jpg Size: 751 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #139
  • Oct 22, 2019 12:20pm Oct 22, 2019 12:20pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Update: Short limit Order filled, Stops in place just above the 200 which has been capping prices and we just had the first bearish hourly close near the handle so lets see how it goes stops are also above previous days High, Lets see.
The stops on this setup got taken out, price rallied b above the stop levels and broke the previous day high.



Got the Natural Gas short currently running, its in some DD at the moment, looking to see how it ends at days close...


Trade Safe
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #140
  • Oct 22, 2019 2:22pm Oct 22, 2019 2:22pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Hey Bud, Been looking at previous setups etc and it seems it may be one that we should be looking to implement across most setups, but we would need to use our discretion regarding this, as sometimes price may rally before dropping abruptly, as such, in such circumstances it becomes wise to maybe alter the position size or use the 200 ema handle as we have been doing as a guideline, and place the stops a couple of pips slightly below or above it...
Sorry, just one more question (for now ). Will you keep this system running during big events like EIA inventories, API, etc? I usually shy away from those things since there can be volatility to knock you out of a position but then it can resume it's previous trend a lot of the time.
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