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Pivot Trading

  • #32,161
  • Edited 6:30pm Oct 17, 2019 6:17pm | Edited 6:30pm
10pm Red Event on China should it print red expect AUD and NZD to take short lasting spikes down and maybe create opportunity to reload AC maybe NC longs at better prices.
The reason I insist on calandar analyses so you develop intuitive feel how events shape price and be on the forefront instead of being in ignorance which rarely pays off.
You can plan your trades.Example I like to go long AC now but wont take it now because I know China data coming at 10pm hence I am waiting out.With trades issues I anticipate red data and may enter my plan trades at whole lot better prices.This is the planning I am talking about and has NOTHING to do with candles or indicators its pure rational analyses.

On the flip side should it print green that would be great on my EN and EA shorts
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,162
  • Edited 7:53pm Oct 17, 2019 6:43pm | Edited 7:53pm
Quoting Davit
Spent some time going over the threads reading some posts and same issues problems facing even traders with years of experience wondering why they got stopped out? When they obeyed all their indicators candles etc and ZERO knowledge about events shaping price every day. This alone is staggeringly stupid to trade the markets believing in indicators instead of watching news,events that really effect Price. Market DOES not know about your little stupid wiggly lines but does know at 8.30am there is Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which printed red hence...
The market doesn't care whether you're short or long. It's emotionless and will do whatever it wants. What we're doing here are SWAG's as Lan Turner calls them. (Scientific Wild Ass Guesses) hopefully by combining technical and fundamental analysis we get it right half the time or better. My average in over a 1,000 fx trades has been 2/3 of the time I'm right. The 1/3 of the time I'm wrong I just rack that up to the cost of doing business. If you had a bricks and mortar business you'd have all kinds of expenditures. rent, property tax, utilities, employee payroll, etc. Pick whatever column floats your boat and stick your losses in there. I had a client in the brokerage that I was doing a lot of business with, suddenly they just stopped paying their bill they had 50 K in credit, luckily it was caught early and we put them on credit hold eventually all the numbers on the left moved to the right. In the eleventh hour they paid their bill and a week later ceased operations. People say trading is gambling, the reality is everything is gambling. Business or crossing the street, there are no guarantees in life. You teach them well Davit. If they don't pay attention to news events, risk management and position sizing its out of your hands.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #32,163
  • Oct 17, 2019 6:54pm Oct 17, 2019 6:54pm
Quoting Romanov102
{quote} The market doesn't care whether you're short or long. It's emotionless and will do whatever it wants. What we're doing here are SWAG's as Lan Turner calls them. (Scientific Wild Ass Guesses) hopefully by combining technical and fundamental analysis we get it right half the time or better. My average in over a 1,000 fx trades has been 2/3 of the time I'm right. The 1/3 of the time I'm wrong I just rack that up to the cost of doing business. If you had a bricks and mortar business you'd have all kinds of expenditures. rent, property tax, utilities,...
Great post.Obviously there are lot of ways to skin a cat but in most cases you must have a sharp knife.Not saying my approach is the best or only way to trade.Hardly the case but I am acutely aware after years of watching price certain knowledge is gained.Market is driven by fundamentals and this must be a starting point.
My 19yr son opened a 2k forex account and yesterday lost 1200 in 1 trade.I asked him why he said he had 1 lot sell order on EU at 1030
Wrong size order,Wrong fundamentals(he should of looking to buy not sell) but he refused to listen to me earlier when I tried to advise so I let him experience some pain...he did not ask my advise he thought "he figured out already" lol even my son acts like typical arrogant new trader who thinks they got it all worked out.Well nothing comes cheap I guess even lessons costs... I paid my dues...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,164
  • Oct 17, 2019 7:27pm Oct 17, 2019 7:27pm
Nice moves on EN
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,165
  • Oct 17, 2019 7:57pm Oct 17, 2019 7:57pm
Closed EN very nice gain. Total gain today
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,166
  • Oct 17, 2019 7:58pm Oct 17, 2019 7:58pm
Quoting Davit
Nice moves on EN
Yeah Kiwi is still on a raging ripper since yesterday, so opposite pairs are bleeding nicely.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #32,167
  • Oct 17, 2019 7:59pm Oct 17, 2019 7:59pm
Month of Oct so far
Funny part people used to scold me that I had thousands of pips and not much money gain....(criticism not based on merit)Well folks its other way around.More money less pips!Patience! First we go slow then we run!!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,168
  • Oct 17, 2019 8:00pm Oct 17, 2019 8:00pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Yeah Kiwi is still on a raging ripper since yesterday, so opposite pairs are bleeding nicely.
May drop after possible red China data tonight thus creating new opportunities
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,169
  • Oct 17, 2019 8:06pm Oct 17, 2019 8:06pm
EA turn to go south!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,170
  • Oct 17, 2019 8:07pm Oct 17, 2019 8:07pm
Quoting Davit
Nice moves on EN
Nice! EN's pricey for me $750 in margin per 10K with my Canadian account. I managed to reopen my Australian account I have one hiccup with it though. I opened it with a UK address and they'll only let me fund it from the UK. It's an obstacle to get a bank account opened without actually physically being there. I haven't found an economical way to open an account there yet. I do have some options but so far they come with crazy prices, high monthly fees and demands that I deposit over 1 K every month. probably easier to live with high margin.
Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #32,171
  • Oct 17, 2019 8:11pm Oct 17, 2019 8:11pm
Quoting Romanov102
{quote} Nice! EN's pricey for me $750 in margin per 10K with my Canadian account. I managed to reopen my Australian account I have one hiccup with it though. I opened it with a UK address and they'll only let me fund it from the UK. It's an obstacle to get a bank account opened without actually physically being there. I haven't found an economical way to open an account there yet. I do have some options but so far they come with crazy prices, high monthly fees and demands that I deposit over 1 K every month. probably easier to live with high margin....
Yes its pricey and GBP pairs specially crosses lucky I have no interest on GBP crosses too wild for my taste. Still love commodity pairs they are my milk and honey pay the bills currencies. Hope you sort it out
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,172
  • Oct 17, 2019 11:58pm Oct 17, 2019 11:58pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Yes its pricey and GBP pairs specially crosses lucky I have no interest on GBP crosses too wild for my taste. Still love commodity pairs they are my milk and honey pay the bills currencies. Hope you sort it out

Sure nice to see this forum light up again......Gbp still my favourite pair....but only after London Fix and ADR in red....best few days ever for me...but I have studied this beast for so many years I know when to trade and when to stay out....it’s a sickness I know....ha ha
  • #32,173
  • Oct 18, 2019 12:32am Oct 18, 2019 12:32am
Quoting Swede
{quote} Sure nice to see this forum light up again......Gbp still my favourite pair....but only after London Fix and ADR in red....best few days ever for me...but I have studied this beast for so many years I know when to trade and when to stay out....it’s a sickness I know....ha ha
And all 1 standard lot AFTER London Close and ADR in red.....oscillation trades based on failure at R78/...trade duration from 20 minutes to 1 hour. Also, Diamond miner taught me a bit about Gann levels...that helped for certain, but Pivots and ADR led the way...along with the exhaustion of GBP London traders....for new ones I urge you to really get to know your favorite currency..how it acts at certain times of the day....and all the false breakouts and spikes that market makers dish out every day... think im going to sleep for two days now.....what nerves?????
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  • #32,174
  • Oct 18, 2019 4:46am Oct 18, 2019 4:46am
Quoting Swede
{quote} And all 1 standard lot AFTER London Close and ADR in red.....oscillation trades based on failure at R78/...trade duration from 20 minutes to 1 hour. Also, Diamond miner taught me a bit about Gann levels...that helped for certain, but Pivots and ADR led the way...along with the exhaustion of GBP London traders....for new ones I urge you to really get to know your favorite currency..how it acts at certain times of the day....and all the false breakouts and spikes that market makers dish out every day... think im going to sleep for two days...
Great job there
I would advise not having position over the weekend on GBP for obvious reasons.
Continue on
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,175
  • Oct 18, 2019 4:49am Oct 18, 2019 4:49am
Hi guyzz,
october results r great, some trades r still on the table,i do not take too many positions only 4 to 5 trades per pair according to my MM, EN closed too early yesterday but am happy with the gains, AC and NC closed too with very good profits, thanx DAVIT and all thread members
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  • #32,176
  • Oct 18, 2019 5:13am Oct 18, 2019 5:13am
Probabilities of UK weakening after Brexit is great and despite of Gov Ramsden "rate will increase on table" is hollow vessel
Reality is we are heading global slow down already AUD NZD cut rates and Feds will follow then BOC joining the party..BOJ essentially running out of options and may go even deeper negative rate to keep the Yen cheap.Future is printing money...
Very high probability GBP crashes down again IMO
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,177
  • Oct 18, 2019 5:21am Oct 18, 2019 5:21am
"Combined with even weaker manufacturing and construction purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) earlier this week, September's all-sector PMI sank to 48.8 from 49.7. This was its lowest since the month after the referendum decision to leave the EU in June 2016, and before that 2009.
"Coming on the heels of a decline in the second quarter, [this] would mean the UK is facing a heightened risk of recession," said IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson. A recession is normally defined as when an economy contracts over two consecutive quarters."
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49919189


Gov Ramsden is delusional.
Oct figures
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,178
  • Oct 18, 2019 5:35am Oct 18, 2019 5:35am
NZDUSD An Interesting Juncture?
NU has struck Resistance at R61? Is this Cryptosurf's Late Week Markup? It has been attacking R61 for better that 10-12 hours.
I remain mindful that Consolidation Below Resistance is a Bullish sign!
Of note: visit https://www.forexfactory.com/news/95...ottom-in-place
The Market will decide!
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  • #32,179
  • Oct 18, 2019 5:51am Oct 18, 2019 5:51am
Quoting Gmo
NZDUSD An Interesting Juncture? NU has struck Resistance at R61? Is this Cryptosurf's Late Week Markup? It has been attacking R61 for better that 10-12 hours. I remain mindful that Consolidation Below Resistance is a Bullish sign! Of note: visit https://www.forexfactory.com/news/95...ottom-in-place The Market will decide! {image}
Hi friend! Welcome back!
Its not just NU but AU EU as well and my thinking is I rather let market push down on these and I'll buy the discounted prices because USD has been dominating for long time and after softer data US economy is showing cracks and Feds seem more open to cut rates.When you put everything together its better to be USD bear from this point on forward that is buying the dips against USD

Whole lot of room both on NU and AU not even yet at 38
I generally like to trade towards new trends and fundamentals.Fundamentals on USD is IMO corrections are taking place now and will continue
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #32,180
  • Oct 18, 2019 6:12am Oct 18, 2019 6:12am
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I am certain you were looking at her hands

Chopin was composing "heavy metal" shredding 200yrs ago!with melody ,substance,difficulty, feeling etc. Kids think what they hear now its new! Hardly its been done before 1000x better.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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