MY Journal-phil13

Turkish central bank defending its currency....

just for info for people who not seen this before and so they can see a CB fight...




edit.... with reference to above.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...erging-markets

E/U trade..... badly timed only one thing to do ...

E/U trade.... wit correct timing this time!



















cont' in post below...

cont' from above..

again just for info on the outcome after a CB defends its currency....

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12464095

now...

again for information purposes on p/a.... but being a weekend any news could affect this on monday.

Hey phil,

I wanted to discuss with you this post

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post10206919

just curious as to how piptits distort the technical read on our charts. Also, I am finding it difficult to consistently trade short tenure 5 min trends and I suspect that is the issue along with the liquidity issue fti mentions. That strategy seems to work fine in strongly trending markets (when D1, H1, 5m all line up) and/or the market is heavily Biased USD bear/bull. Thinking I might need to move up to the 15 minute for entries and trade a bit longer tenure. still developing the different strategies for the different phases of the market.

We can move this discussion to my thread as not to clutter and distract from what you are doing here.

hope you are well,

ps...where'd all the USD bulls go? thought we were going to see a bit more action this week than we are getting

Hi dbrown101

I am good thanks, it is ok we can discuss this here, it is good info for all people to understand.

The real market is quoted in 4 points behind the decimal, we retail have 5, this means they (our broker) can make any bars they want within say the real spread of 2 pips, so that to us means they own 20 piptits, the real market may not move but our retail platform chart can be made to do anything they want with those 20 piptits, they can fill it, put tails on it or do what ever they want.

As for working charts you have try it out yourself, I use M15 as you can see and have done for a long time but just because that suits and fits with me that does mean it will with everyone else, just test them out, to be honest even M15 are harder work now as the liquidity has dried up so much.

USD bulls? The daily is still in consolidation/tight range on most charts I posted. Low volumes so MM’s can do what they want with price atm… they can and do use time as a weapon to bore us out of our trades, remember they always make the spread at the very least for every trade we do.

Regards

Phil.

is open season atm on USDX.

phil,

I see what you mean. I might try out a longer tenure for experiment. still trying to find my niche. I basically take the above as the smaller 5 min bars aren't necessarily reflective of what the market is doing at the time and can be what the broker wants you to see. Another reason why momentum bars are so useful. so anything beyond this 2 pip spread can be looked at as a real move? Say you have a bunch of 2 pip bars and then one 6-9 pip (just for example). That 6-9 pip bar might be reflected as a real market move? or do the brokers have a wider range then the 2 or so pips they are offering?

Hi dbrown101

Ok, so say you have your 5min bar if they have say 2 pips spread (just guessing do not know what today’s actual real spread is) then this can extend either end so as much as 9 pips could/may be shown in theory.

The bars in the lower frames are really only of any real use at ‘areas of interest’, the other way to look at it is to track the highs and lows and think of them as the ‘bars’ (moves), you see me do this in my trades, remember there are moves within moves (trend within trends), so for this you will need a multi time frame outlook/approach, though to me there is no real time frame in retail fx for the way I trade, a time frame must have a beginning and an end that is dictated by a natural cycle, in stocks it is daily, in fx it is only the weekly that does this, but the weekly is way to far out for us trying to do shorter term trading, to me that only leaves the moves (waves) and the areas of interest, again this just basically only covers part of the ‘read’ part, that alone will not make you profitable from my own personal experience, when I show my next trade you will see this within a point in the trade that I got too and had to then implement my full MO, I was trying to separate the disciplines, I knew you cannot but I tried and have shown why it is just not possible even though I did not want to do that, I now know I can only show my trades with my full MO implemented, luckily my own personal ego is not big enough to think I can do something I can clearly see may turn out to bite me.

In quieter times individual brokers can spike the price where ever and by as much as they want and you do see this now and again to trigger all the stops and orders, I have highlighted a couple of cases of this from different brokers, they all do it, it is just something we retail have to allow for in our own personal MO’s.

Regards

Phil.

examples to try to help explain myself for post above...

Phil,

I understand. I look forward to seeing the next trade post. It's extremely kind of you take the time out of your day to answer my questions and post trades here. so thank you

Hi dbrown101

No problem my friend, I was helped by fti and his thread and all he asked of us was to try to help others with their journey into this fx world and give any excesses to good causes, I am just returning and doing what little was asked of us by documenting what I have learned on my own journey, if others get something from this that of help that is great.

Regards

Phil.

Hi phil! Thanks for thread again! You wrote here that you hedge in rescue mod not in same pair but another, can you explain if I sell eurgbp and it goes high, I need sell gbpusd but its not the same cause usd here. I think better buy eurgbp. If its not bother for you.

Hi protuberanec

sorry i am away for the next couple of weeks and have little time to respond at the moment, when i am back i will answer you question my friend.

regards

Phil.

Thanks phil, I dont hurry. Its a long run.
Best regards

Hi protuberanec

i am back home now for the next few weeks, hope you are well my friend and thank you for your patience.

you can trade the pairs in this formation i have posted using the two USD pairs and its cross, here is a link to a post of mine showing the chart set up to do such a thing.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...79#post9867879

regards

Phil.

amazing job Phil.

Hi antmindset

Thank you my friend, but I am just doing my little bit to document what I have learnt so far on my own learning curve as our friend asked of us, i appreciate you taking the time to drop by so i know i am just not talking to myself here.

Hope things are going well for you and you are welcome here anytime.

Regards

Phil.