Technical Analysis of Energy Markets

So you see further strength? I'm following Trump/China completely now. The more tension that is eased, the stronger crude will get on demand prospects... in my opinion. But that's not technical!

The fact that Crude rallied this much has been a surprise. But then rallying above $60.5 looks difficult.

Crude has moved above its main downward sloping trendline and is now headed towards $60.50 a rally above which looks unlikely. Note the short term trender indicator on the daily chart has changed its position and is now showing a buy.

I was out on a small vacation and what a week it was to miss out. The last update had indicated that the daily chart had given a buy signal on crude, and the same is continuing as of now. Infact now all 3 of my trender indicators have turned Green and Bullish.

No real change in view so far but it appears to have a short term support at around $57.17 which is likely to hold for the time-being.

Just a quick update: Crude looks to be headed to $55.0 to test the trendline on the chart. On the short term, it could be a buy with a stop below $53.70

Crude is incredibly close to breaking its trendline and is currently in the middle of its range of roughly $60 - $50, however headed down as of now:

Crude heat-map. In 7 out of the last 10 years, crude has had a big move in October. Big move is defined as more than 5% move. Probably a good idea to buy options this month. Perhaps a break of 50-60 range would be seen, being mindful of the fact that even a move from $54.5 (current mrp) to $50.0 is also a 9% move. So I would buy at the money call and put both with a strike of $55.0.

Nat gas always has had more than 3.5% move in Oct, apart from 2013, so Oct generally has a directional trend.



The charts are suggesting a downtrend:

Thanks for your posts! I read them every day!

Crude has fallen very sharply over the last few days and is now near a big chart support of $50.30. A break below that would be very bad for crude. However I think that could hold, at least provide a temporary bounce on first test, and thus one could purchase with a stop close to $49.90. A less risky option would be to buy $50 call.

Crude has been holding above its super important support of $50.30 for now, but I think given the fact that crude is not oversold yet, the support could break. However that may need some external news/trigger for it to happen.

Here is crude oil chart along with Ichimoku indicator where Crude is trading below the cloud and bearish.

Nat Gas has had a smart rally over the past few days and is now approaching an important resistance on the 4H chart, at around 2.516. New short positions can be initiated with stops above 2.516.

Nat Gas opened gap down this week and is sustaining the selling pressure. Looks more selling to come later on in the week. The 4H chart from EnergyExch is below:

That chart looks above my pay grade

Crude currently is really strong and is at its highest level in October and moving in a channel. Targetting next is around $57.5

I like your analysis and charting style. I could relate.

An interesting news which I was reading is this today: Fears Of A Global Financial Meltdown Loom Over Oil Markets

Crude just now near the lower end of the upward sloping channel and perhaps worth a buy as the price dips on higher than expected crude inventories: