Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2223 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #44,441
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:55am Sep 20, 2019 1:55am
The DAX Buy Zone hit TP last night as well. Went for max on the move of +7.
  • #44,442
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:59am Sep 20, 2019 1:59am
Dammit - we got our short move a bar early!
  • #44,443
  • Sep 20, 2019 1:59am Sep 20, 2019 1:59am
Quoting billytt
Morning all. Cable, 00-00 4 hour bar. High broke but I did not trade it. ( no reason why). Dax, 00-00 area. We had a re visit which did not go to plan,lol. So I put a counter on it. Now going to plan.
I traded it while sleeping Nice to awaken to profits
  • #44,444
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:16am Sep 20, 2019 2:16am
The Not-The-Billy-Bar took the trip South as hoped (expected?) and hit tp. I had it set for the edge of the micro-Demand, so took a little less but it did make the full +5.

Not-The-Billy-Bar +4.1

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  • #44,445
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:17am Sep 20, 2019 2:17am
Don't know if I'd be that keen on a continued Short move through the actual Billy-Bar now, mind you. We'll see.
  • #44,446
  • Sep 20, 2019 2:27am Sep 20, 2019 2:27am
Before all that, The Monster got on with it...

DAX 1-min +0.5 +0.5 +1 +1.5 +3.5 +3.5 +4 +5.5 [+20]

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  • #44,447
  • Sep 20, 2019 3:01am Sep 20, 2019 3:01am
Quoting billytt
Cable. 08-00 15 minute bar break. IT DOES NOT ALWAYS WIN. We do have bad days. Should it happen we stay calm. Either have a plan B or wait until next Trade day. t07-46
There are several ways to recover a loss.... Single entry, exit... Extra bullets to your initial setup, hedging in several ways, grid... Different sorts of martingale.... Your setups are really simple so it all comes down to manage the risk/loss..... I understand you maybe can't expand on how you do it.... But I guess without understanding your counter approach it almost isn't possible to even get close to your results.... And maybe even if I would understand or know how you do it... Even then it has to fit your personality..... Amazing how you do it... Can I duplicate it....? Guess not...

Trade well

Cheers
  • #44,448
  • Sep 20, 2019 3:30am Sep 20, 2019 3:30am
Quoting Chrobakx
I performed a simple back test of Billy's bar and not the Billy's bar/Lem's bar with SL of 10 pips and TP of 5 pips. No recovery trades, I used the 1.3 pips spread to be objective. If the following candle after the trigger candle was bigger on both sides, I counted it as a loss. I started from 13.06 till today 19.09 so 71 trades each or 142 together. Lem's bars was successful 44 times so winning percentage was 61,97% Billy's bars won 46 times so 64,78% Together it was 63,38%. With this ratio risk: reward 2:1, the winning rate must be minimum 66,67%...
Your results are correct. The edge is on the discretionary decisions: when/where open/close the recovery trade plus the trade size. It's not that simple.
  • #44,449
  • Sep 20, 2019 3:31am Sep 20, 2019 3:31am
Billy-Bar time. The initial short stalled and took a wander back through the candle range. It popped its head out the other side, which was annoying, however not so much for me, as I didn't take it. The sentiment for me had very definitely changed to a short bias and so I just hung in there.

I didn't take any WZ interest, which would have helped offset any negativity, so the two points balance out for me.

In the end, we got the drop we were waiting on all along.

Billy-Bar In

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Billy-Bar Out +5

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Plus again, as discussed previously, it went on for a chunk more than the +5.
  • #44,450
  • Sep 20, 2019 3:39am Sep 20, 2019 3:39am
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} Your results are correct. The edge is on the discretionary decisions: when/where open/close the recovery trade plus the trade size. It's not that simple.
@David and Pat. If you are interested in the basic premise, without having to consider the discretionary - learned skill - aspects, then I would suggest the H4 AU break is more for you. You can even clean that up by using the Bo-Variant, which deliberately ignores the first break and should it then fail, trades the reverse break, hunting the ADR.

You obviously have to consider the larger bar size but everything in (trading) life comes with a trade-off.

Bear in mind that the lower time frame methods here all morphed organically out of the original Daily EJ Break method, so techniques from the earlier one carry over into these later ones. It's all a process.

Perhaps somewhere in the middle ground would be The Dead Zone cw UC (run without countering) or just go with Claudia's Simple Dream basket-of-breaks.

Or hey, just scalp The Daily Wick-Zone / RAT-Zone.

There will be something that suits.
  • #44,451
  • Sep 20, 2019 3:57am Sep 20, 2019 3:57am
Quoting Patje
{quote} There are several ways to recover a loss.... Single entry, exit... Extra bullets to your initial setup, hedging in several ways, grid... Different sorts of martingale.... Your setups are really simple so it all comes down to manage the risk/loss..... I understand you maybe can't expand on how you do it.... But I guess without understanding your counter approach it almost isn't possible to even get close to your results.... And maybe even if I would understand or know how you do it... Even then it has to fit your personality..... Amazing...
We have re trace entries, hunt daily range, bigger lot size. Look for inside bars. .
i look for 5% as you all know, but sometimes I make 5.5 or 6. This extra goes to help a loss sometimes.
As long as I have 25% after 5 Trade days, I am not bothered if I was 30% - 40% up.
i play numbers. This isn't really trading.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #44,452
  • Sep 20, 2019 3:59am Sep 20, 2019 3:59am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} @David and Pat. If you are interested in the basic premise, without having to consider the discretionary - learned skill - aspects, then I would suggest the H4 AU break is more for you. You can even clean that up by using the Bo-Variant, which deliberately ignores the first break and should it then fail, trades the reverse break, hunting the ADR. You obviously have to consider the larger bar size but everything in (trading) life comes with a trade-off. Bear in mind that the lower time frame methods here all morphed organically out of the...
Yes indeed.
the A/U 04-00 4 hour bar is very good to Trade but rather slow.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #44,453
  • Sep 20, 2019 4:02am Sep 20, 2019 4:02am
Quoting billytt
{quote} We have re trace entries, hunt daily range, bigger lot size. Look for inside bars. . i look for 5% as you all know, but sometimes I make 5.5 or 6. This extra goes to help a loss sometimes. As long as I have 25% after 5 Trade days, I am not bothered if I was 30% - 40% up. i play numbers. This isn't really trading.
Oh I reckon it's the perfect definition of trading, Billy.
  • #44,454
  • Sep 20, 2019 4:08am Sep 20, 2019 4:08am
Off again ...
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  • #44,455
  • Sep 20, 2019 4:56am Sep 20, 2019 4:56am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Oh I reckon it's the perfect definition of trading, Billy.
Forgetting Cable 00-00 4 hour bar 1st break & Dax 00-00 area which I am playing/ testing.
We have several good methods, I trade my main break (5%) if that wins I then stop.NO MORE TRADES. If it fails move to the second trade. As I say, The More You Trade The More Chance To Lose.
i was going to say this earlier Lem. and also, I trade stats. Yaaaaaaay it's Friday, dinghy time.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #44,456
  • Sep 20, 2019 5:01am Sep 20, 2019 5:01am
@ Lem - Newbury. Adam 15.55 showing 4/1 worth an ew just.

Also 17.05 showing at 12/1 - going to cover that with a 5/1. Clive Cox as trainer and I like the horses name.
  • #44,457
  • Sep 20, 2019 5:06am Sep 20, 2019 5:06am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} @David and Pat. If you are interested in the basic premise, without having to consider the discretionary - learned skill - aspects, then I would suggest the H4 AU break is more for you. You can even clean that up by using the Bo-Variant, which deliberately ignores the first break and should it then fail, trades the reverse break, hunting the ADR. You obviously have to consider the larger bar size but everything in (trading) life comes with a trade-off. Bear in mind that the lower time frame methods here all morphed organically out of the...
thanks lem.
I just answered that guy with the stats. I think he's looking for a mechanical edge. I just pointed out that is not that simple as 'set and forget'
  • #44,458
  • Sep 20, 2019 5:12am Sep 20, 2019 5:12am
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} thanks lem. I just answered that guy with the stats. I think he's looking for a mechanical edge. I just pointed out that is not that simple as 'set and forget'
All good, I'm just trying fine tune the main "base" trade, find out what work best for me. Thank you all for your input and have a nice weekend.
  • #44,459
  • Sep 20, 2019 5:17am Sep 20, 2019 5:17am
Quoting Chrobakx
{quote} All good, I'm just trying fine tune the main "base" trade, find out what work best for me. Thank you all for your input and have a nice weekend.
I think stats are interesting with this sort of trades... Going through stuff myself and because I have to do it manually it takes a lot of time, also you can look at so many variables wich makes it interesting on the other hand....
  • #44,460
  • Edited 5:59am Sep 20, 2019 5:35am | Edited 5:59am
Back to the pivot trade. Getting out early as it is Friday as Lem says.

Edit: Got there without me. Never mind.
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