Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

15 min Billy ya !!!!!

Balls of Steel Claudia!

I'll get to Cable in a minute but first, here's The DAX play for the morning. Didn't have time to post earlier as Cable stuck its nose in.

The view was clearer on the 5-min.

DAX 5-min Out of Demand +0.5 +1 +1.5 +3 +3.5 +5 +5.5 +6.5 [+26.5]

Lol it makes GN look tame.

As for Cable, well as Sheppy said, a choppy mess. Not the best day to begin running both of the time slots together.

Anyway, there is no point in trying to post the charts as it happened, as it makes no sense whatsoever and to be honest, I've already faffed about with it long enough for one day.

It does bring to back to me that it's a right royal pain in the butt when you have to wrangle it, as I miss all of my usual DAX action.

And wrangling was needed for sure...

The Not-The-Billy-Bar took a move short, failed and so in the end that first entry would end up -5.5 (I didn't just close it off, it was countered but as I said, this is going to get complicated enough without trying to explain in perfect chronological order, so for all intents and purposes, the first entry goes down as a loss).

From there, The Billy-Bar kicked off and at the same time the Not-The-Billy-Bar counter came into play.

Now Sheppy's chop really kicked in...

I am sorry - but with price trapped between micro S+D, there was no way I was going to ignore it as a way to unwind and cover the trades in-running. So, as a result, I played the bounce back up out of Demand and as such added +3 +2.5 +2.7 +2.5 all the while waiting for price to make up its bl**** mind!

(At this point, I was sitting at -5.5 +10.7).

Eventually, it did kick off and headed North and the 2 Long breaks that had been in-running (Not-The-Billy-Bar's counter and the Billy-Bar break itself) made the +5 +5 so I could finally get out of Dodge.

In the end, it all adds up to a final figure of +20.7

Still not quite sure how I managed to get that out of such a bunch of utter crud but happy enough.

I should also say that I was always planning to play the breaks as they came, just for stat's-sake, however in the real World of Lem, there is no way that I would have taken that first break short down into what was obviously a reasonably substantial Demand Zone.

Anyway, there ya' go.

I am now going to go off and no doubt get really ticked off at what I have missed off The Monster's back due to having to deal with all of that.

Hope nobody got too badly singed if they got involved in all that.

Back to sanity (and when would you ever call The DAX sane!?) and an easy set-up and play.

DAX 5-min +6

Check that move!

Is there any correlation between the B/Bar being a bit of a mess and that at this time it was within the lower WZ on the daily?

Ray

Cable, 08-00 15 minute bar. The High broke for 5%. Low nearly broke. We do not do near?

Dax. The 00-00. 12422 area was visited for 20 at the moment. I

Short answer, yes. Also thanks for pointing that out, as I had completely forgotten about that (although as I said, I wanted to run them both without my usual bias info anyway).

In addition to the Lower DWZ, you could also have borne in mind the RAT Zone influence.

Thanks Lem. Not looked at RAT zones yet, just getting to grips with what I'm learning at the moment.

Ray

nutcoin is in consolidation after big move - more fun ahead.

Edit: off we go ...

I performed a simple back test of Billy's bar and not the Billy's bar/Lem's bar with SL of 10 pips and TP of 5 pips. No recovery trades, I used the 1.3 pips spread to be objective. If the following candle after the trigger candle was bigger on both sides, I counted it as a loss.
I started from 13.06 till today 19.09 so 71 trades each or 142 together.
Lem's bars was successful 44 times so winning percentage was 61,97%
Billy's bars won 46 times so 64,78%
Together it was 63,38%. With this ratio risk: reward 2:1, the winning rate must be minimum 66,67%

Maybe one simple recovery trade in opposite direction will improve the winning rate. I don't really want scalping and hunt the pips after initial loss.

Lem, Billy, what are your thoughts please? Thanks

For me, I'd have begun to eat back into the "potential" 10 pip loss before it got there so I wouldn't be having that size of negative.

I also do use directional bias in my selection process. Bar shape and size also play a part.

Also, you are counting the tp as a fixed +5. This isn't so. +5 is a base target. It's there for the stats. In reality, you are taking more than that pretty much every time, often a lot more.

Once MOMO takes hold on a move, I will also stack into it on either micro-pullbacks or simply by jumping on its back.

Thanks Lem

'Morning, folks.

Foggy here, with low visibility and the same could be said about The DAX. Very messy and I haven't been able to get an in yet. Bl**** Fridays...

Finally...

DAX 1-min Pre-KO +1 +1.5 [+2.5]

Morning all.
Cable, 00-00 4 hour bar. High broke but I did not trade it. ( no reason why).

Dax, 00-00 area. We had a re visit which did not go to plan,lol. So I put a counter on it. Now going to plan.

Cable. 08-00 15 minute bar break.
IT DOES NOT ALWAYS WIN. We do have bad days.
Should it happen we stay calm. Either have a plan B or wait until next Trade day.
t07-46

I'd only be looking at shorts normally over in Billy-Bar Land. Price stuck up under a good, chunky Supply Zone. The Not-The-Billy-Bar is looking decidedly weedy at the moment as well.