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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #341
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:34am Sep 15, 2019 11:34am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Was it you last night acting in that forex infomercial ? But wait you forgot to mention your flying session https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpsncJlNX68
was it you on the benefits fraud show last night?
  • #342
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:35am Sep 15, 2019 11:35am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} You are not staying on topic Here it is again: Therefore it's always a question of probability, it can never be a sure thing, unless of course you are a fan of those late night forex infomercials. They seem to have all the answers on how to become a retail forex millionaire.
The game is about anticipating what others will do, what do you think people do when prices rises? What do you think they do when prices fall? I think the market is not random but it is always biased in one direction or the other.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #343
  • Sep 15, 2019 12:47pm Sep 15, 2019 12:47pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
...Day traders with strong past performance go on to earn strong returns in the future. Though only about 1% of all day traders are able to predictably profit net of fees. 1 Traders with up to a 10 years negative track record continue to trade. This suggest that day traders even continue to trade when they receive a negative signal regarding their ability. 1 Profitable day traders make up a small proportion of all traders 1.6% in the average year.However, these day traders are very active accounting for 12% of all day trading activity. 1 Among all...
I had to cut down the quote, to the relevant sections.

Now that study has told us what we already know; that 1% make it, they trade high lot sizes while everyone else is losing.

The 1.6% have 12% of retail volume, sounds about right.

Making it in FX is comparable to poker and blackjack.

1.6% is a good statistic. FX has lower barriers to entry.

Professional sports will have lower rates than 1.6%.

Example, Graduates that apply have a less than 1% chance of being an Investment banker (Front Office).
All Assets NAS100 GLD BTC AUS JPY GBP All Time Return: 18.2%
  • #344
  • Sep 15, 2019 1:02pm Sep 15, 2019 1:02pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
Hi Profitfarmer, I simply can't stand liars. But you make a good point that it's worthless to discuss with snake oilers. A waste of time. So please Tropy, Aussi, Drolph... and all other snake oilers running in overdrive.... cool down in an other tread. Thanks, Hudi.
you are preaching on deaf ears because 1, greed 2, greed and 3, greed , you see you are fighting greed , i could go on but my dad said you cant talk to person who as a one sided view and every time you bring a positive and true view , that person will call you names and shout and yell like a big mouth like you did , its pointless to argue with a uneducated person who lacks understanding
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #345
  • Sep 15, 2019 2:42pm Sep 15, 2019 2:42pm
Quoting alphaomega
I have to say that most of the presented facts and claims in this thread are 100% correct. I know this not because I trust the research papers (some of them are wrong) but because I made my own research. I studied the market extensively in the last few years. This includes thousands of simulations, data mining, demo testing, live testing...... I personally wrote several millions lines of code. And I also used data mining tools like the Strategy Quant platform and others. I even made my own data mining tools for MT4 and MT5. Over the last few years...
All you have done is prove why algorithms cannot win in the market without a good trader constantly tweaking it. If math could win the market, it would have already happened.

Everyone keeps forgetting: In general, there is a daily high and a daily low. Who creates these? They are your meal ticket.
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  • #346
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:04pm Sep 15, 2019 3:04pm
Quoting alphaomega
... The funny thing is, after awhile these rock-stars super traders always disappear somewhere. And then you are thinking, well they must be too busy, spending all these millions. While in reality they all go bankrupt and are too ashamed to admit it!
Please provide the proof that "they all go bankrupt"... how do you know this? or is this just your opinion?
  • #347
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:06pm Sep 15, 2019 3:06pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} you are preaching on deaf ears because 1, greed 2, greed and 3, greed
Do you have proof of this? All traders trade because of greed? Can't other emotions make traders trade also?
  • #348
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:17pm Sep 15, 2019 3:17pm
Quoting DojiSan
{quote} Do you have proof of this? All traders trade because of greed? Can't other emotions make traders trade also?
did not say all traders , but if you want proof dont be lazy and ask me you can find plenty of proof on the net addicted gamblers are addicted to greed , and i agree other emotions are a big part of trading
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #349
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:24pm Sep 15, 2019 3:24pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Wrong.... they can end up with an desastrous negative balances..... Maybe it's worth to refresh the collective memory.....just one example..... The Swiss SNB Tsunami........15.01.2015 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7995664 Retail forex with typical leverage up to 100 and in some cases even up to 1000 (at very shady brokers) can financially ruin you within the blink of an eye, if you trade overleveraged. T
Didn't the brokers cover their retail client's the negative balance? Here's one
"Canada-based foreign exchange broker OANDA said in a statement it “will pardon our clients’ negative account balances associated with this market event” and would not “re-quote or amend” clients’ trades on the Swiss currency. "
  • #350
  • Sep 15, 2019 3:57pm Sep 15, 2019 3:57pm
Quoting DojiSan
{quote} Please provide the proof that "they all go bankrupt"... how do you know this? or is this just your opinion?
You want proof? this is easy to find. But if you understand the math and the odds in Forex such proof is no longer necessary.
But anyway... here is what you have to do to get your proof (besides math):

1. Simply go on all large social trading sites where the "best" traders post their trading accounts. Most of them sell signals and you can copy their trades for a small monthly fee. But it's not necessary..... to pay.

2. Find the top 20 traders in each site and take screenshots of their performance on a regular basis, every month.

3. Keep the records and after some time, maybe 6 months, maybe a year.....you will start to notice interesting things happening. You will notice that the old leaders in top 20 will disappear (completely), and will be replaced with new leaders. And this process is constant.

The other interesting fact is that there are hundreds of thousand of traders online, in forums, in social networks everywhere. But the percentage of leaders is extremely small. In fact it's abnormally small. Even in a completely random but fair game given such large sample of players we should see thousands of winners everywhere. Many of them with huge compounded accounts over 100 mil. and even billions. But we don't see any of that in the retail forex space.

There are some billionaire "traders", but they don't trade forex, they invest in the stock market mostly long term, and they make money primarily by charging their investors performance fees. The investors take all of the risk, and the manager simply collects the sure winners (the fees). Completely different game, with positive expectancy. Of course they will make billions.... But I digress here..
  • #351
  • Sep 15, 2019 4:02pm Sep 15, 2019 4:02pm
i see people picking there nose and not trading
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #352
  • Sep 15, 2019 4:48pm Sep 15, 2019 4:48pm
Quoting Aussi
i see people picking there nose and not trading
  • #353
  • Sep 15, 2019 5:21pm Sep 15, 2019 5:21pm
This is a very interesting idea AO, and I will take up the challenge - but please answer some questions for me if you can?
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} You want proof? this is easy to find. 1. Simply go on all large social trading sites where the "best" traders post their trading accounts.
So - Forexfactory and where else? Etoro? Darwinex? Tradeo?
Quote
Most of them sell signals and you can copy their trades for a small monthly fee. But it's not necessary..... to pay. 2. Find the top 20 traders in each site and take screenshots of their performance on a regular basis, every month. 3. Keep the records and after some time, maybe 6 months, maybe a year.....you will start to notice interesting things happening. You will notice that the old leaders in top 20 will disappear (completely), and will be replaced with new leaders. And this process is constant.
You know this because you have done this, yes? Did you keep your screenshots to show us?
Quote
The other interesting fact is that there are hundreds of thousand of traders online, in forums, in social networks everywhere. But the percentage of leaders is extremely small. In fact it's abnormally small. Even in a completely random but fair game given such large sample of players we should see thousands of winners everywhere. Many of them with huge compounded accounts over 100 mil. and even billions. But we don't see any of that in the retail forex space.
I'm sure you are familiar with the truism, 'absence of evidence is not evidence of absence'; what do you consider to be a 'leader'? I know that if I were trading such large accounts the risk of revealing anything publicly would be so great that I would vanish. If your theory holds then couldn't it simply reveal that the loudest, most visible traders online are the biggest losers?
  • #354
  • Sep 15, 2019 6:36pm Sep 15, 2019 6:36pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} You want proof? this is easy to find. But if you understand the math and the odds in Forex such proof is no longer necessary. ..
You stated that "ALL GO BROKE". That means you have access to ALL their accounts and saw that they ALL GO BROKE. I was just asking for the proof of your statement.How do you know ALL GO BROKE?. Going to those signal website probably doesn't even represent 1% of all forex traders..

"There are some billionaire "traders", but they don't trade forex,"
Some billionaires do trade forex, George Soros for one and also Warren Buffet.

"Many of them with huge compounded accounts over 100 mil. and even billions. But we don't see any of that in the retail forex space."
Could it be because those trader don't want you or everyone else to know they're profitable? Just saying..
  • #355
  • Sep 15, 2019 6:45pm Sep 15, 2019 6:45pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} did not say all traders , but if you want proof dont be lazy and ask me you can find plenty of proof on the net addicted gamblers are addicted to greed , and i agree other emotions are a big part of trading
I'm not trying to be lazy I just thought you already had the data sheet in hand that proved the statement you made ..hehehehe ..but could it also be that some gamblers are addicted for some other reason besides greed, like, pleasure of winning, or maybe even they are addicted to losing, or they are addicted because they want to come up with a winning system..etc..
  • #356
  • Sep 15, 2019 6:54pm Sep 15, 2019 6:54pm
Quoting DojiSan
{quote} I'm not trying to be lazy I just thought you already had the data sheet in hand that proved the statement you made ..hehehehe ..but could it also be that some gamblers are addicted for some other reason besides greed, like, pleasure of winning, or maybe even they are addicted to losing, or they are addicted because they want to come up with a winning system..etc..
no mate no data sheet yes i would agree with you but back to trading
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #357
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:07pm Sep 15, 2019 7:07pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} but back to trading
We are in agreement! usdcad down after that Saudi attack..
  • #358
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:09pm Sep 15, 2019 7:09pm
Quoting DojiSan
{quote} We are in agreement! usdcad down after that Saudi attack..
yes mate i have sells gold oil buys cad , jpy
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #359
  • Sep 15, 2019 7:24pm Sep 15, 2019 7:24pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} yes mate i have sells gold oil buys cad , jpy
Katching!!
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  • #360
  • Sep 15, 2019 11:14pm Sep 15, 2019 11:14pm
Quoting alphaomega
{quote} You want proof? this is easy to find. But if you understand the math and the odds in Forex such proof is no longer necessary. But anyway... here is what you have to do to get your proof (besides math): 1. Simply go on all large social trading sites where the "best" traders post their trading accounts. Most of them sell signals and you can copy their trades for a small monthly fee. But it's not necessary..... to pay. 2. Find the top 20 traders in each site and take screenshots of their performance on a regular basis, every month....
Did you ever take the possibility into account, that traders who are successful are not publishing their trading history on public channels? Your argumentation is based on the assumption that the well known sources for trading accounts (myfxbook, fxblue .. you name them) are showing the completely distributed situation of all retail clients. That is most likely not the case.

I can only speak for myself but got the confimation of at least 2-3 other candidates as well: there is no motivation to share your system(s) if you are really making money with it.
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