Forex - A negative sum game for losers

yes i am from AUSTRALIA , problem is there is to many people who tell us lies by manipulating the the true to fit what they are saying at the time same as the global warming nut cases , to many arsesoles telling what we can and can not do ,years ago i had diverticulitis 7 times in 2 years , was given a list of what i can not eat 12mths later with my 6 attack the dietitian came in gave me a new list 90% of the list was gone , a study done in England by a English doctor there was no coloration food nuts etc etc caused divi in the 80,s was told we going to run out of oil in 10 years i could go on and on , lies are a constant theme to day by well meaning people

you are preaching on deaf ears because 1, greed 2, greed and 3, greed , you see you are fighting greed , i could go on but my dad said you cant talk to person who as a one sided view and every time you bring a positive and true view , that person will call you names and shout and yell like a big mouth like you did , its pointless to argue with a uneducated person who lacks understanding
"those who say it can't be done should get out of the way

1

It's incredibly more likely that I do have a job or that I don' have a job than you making a living from retail forex trading as your only source of income

You obvioulsly have a problem with logic.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

what's wrong Mingary, is it difficult for you to release personal financial information? Yet its a requirement for anyone to prove to you that they can trade. you're a loser and you know it.

I am not saying you are selling something, I could not care less if you are or not. I am showing you a glimpse of the true face of retail forex trading
Stop the lies.
Retail forex trading destroy lives.

there is no doubt there are a lot of scammers out there, nobody doubts or questions that. it doesn't however imply that the entire industry is a scam.

If only you knew you would realize what a stupid statement that is.

been in the industry mate for a long long time , tell me about the true face retail forex

I'm not the one preaching forex is a scam.

The entire retail forex industry is a scam to the extent that it's not what it claims to be.

are you incapable of navigating the bullshit to find success? do you realise what that says about you!

I have to say that most of the presented facts and claims in this thread are 100% correct. I know this not because I trust the research papers (some of them are wrong) but because I made my own research. I studied the market extensively in the last few years. This includes thousands of simulations, data mining, demo testing, live testing...... I personally wrote several millions lines of code. And I also used data mining tools like the Strategy Quant platform and others. I even made my own data mining tools for MT4 and MT5. Over the last few years I basically tested any mechanical strategy you can imagine - I tested pretty much everything.

And indeed it turns out that my worst "fears" and suspicions now are proven correct! Right from the start Forex was and still is a negative sum game and the vast the majority of traders, over 99% will never make profit in the long run. In fact the real problem is not the lack of skill or resources/tools. The real problem is that there is no consistent edge that can be exacted from Forex time series with mechanical system. There are no stable and persistent inefficiencies in the price movements. Nothing reliable.

Long term, short term, intraday, scalping, trend following, breakouts, mean reversion, grids, martingales, averaging, pyramiding...... news trading, fundamental trends....anything you can think of - it's all the same random result. Also there are no consistent correlations between fundamental events and price action. Because as traders we have information disadvantage in regards to news, from our perspective the market is random and unpredictable. You don't know what the intentions of the large players are, you don't know what their positions are, you know nothing basically. And you always trade the news after the fact.

You see, in the end of the day trading is a simple chance operation with built in negative expectation. Now this part for some reason is extremely hard for most people to understand. Even very intelligent people have a hard time grasping the concepts of probability theory, game theory, randomness and statistics. I guess our minds are not good at all when it comes to calculating these things naturally. But thankfully, today we have computers and amazing software. And now everything can be revealed. All cards are down, all "secrets" are out in the open.

But people continue to ignore the facts. (Very strange and irrational behavior) They want to believe! The want to believe that it's possible to make a living and consistent income from trading. But why to blame them? After all, the whole idea of trading for a living with all of the potential benefits and freedom.......this is very very attractive dream.... so attractive (or should I say effective) that people lose their minds just thinking about it. But we know how it goes and we know how it ends.

So let me explain a few things. Pay attention because it's important!

1. I don't care how smart you are. I don't care how successful you are. I'm here to tell that you will get fooled by randomness, period! Your brain simply CANNOT comprehend the concepts of randomness by default. In order to understand the nature and the different nuances of randomness, you will have to study the math problems in the context of markets for a long, long time. Years.

2. Pointing at "successful" traders as a proof that it's possible to extract consistent profits is completely meaningless. The very fact that someone points to some other traders as a proof shows that the person does not understand randomness in the context of markets.
A rising equity curve is not a valid proof! Someone made money for a while.....so what? Who cares.....

Let me ask you something - how many rising curves you can expect to see in 100 000 unbiased random simulations??? The answer is - 50% (50 000)!
If you add some bias to the simulation the curves will tilt to one side, but you still get thousand of positive and negative curves.
The most important thing to understand is that systems with negative expectation also can produce positive curves.

And this is how people get fooled by randomness.
You win some money for a while and you think - this is great, now I have a winning system. But then you lose money and you think - damn, my system is not working anymore. I have to research more. I have to make new system....
In the meantime you see some other traders making money, gathering attention, showing off their accounts, and you think - at least we have a proof. There are successful traders. It's possible to win. The funny thing is, after awhile these rock-stars super traders always disappear somewhere. And then you are thinking, well they must be too busy, spending all these millions. While in reality they all go bankrupt and are too ashamed to admit it!
You see, it's human nature. If someone was really successful in the long run and making millions - he will not stop bragging about it. You will see millionaire traders all over the forums and social media posting their accounts. And showing their luxury lifestyle. But we don't see this. And there is very good reason for this.

RANDOMNESS! Randomness will give you money, and randomness will take it back from you..... + interest!
But if you analyze the problem deeper, you see it's not randomness, but your lack of understanding that is casing you to ride this emotional and financial roller coaster. You play the game because you don't understand it. Just like the people who play in casinos. Or like the people who spend money emotionally with their credit cards and pay 20% interest.

OK enough "BS" for now. You have your daily dose. I will write more on the topic soon, and I will show you what they don't want you to know

if you are testing only technical strategies without any consideration for factors behind market moves then yes, randomness is a problem. this is why traders look at things in probability terms. I am not referring to predicting anything but rather reactionary. so here is a current example. this weekend drone attacks took out 5.7 million barrels of oil production in Saudi Arabia. by itself it isn't a trade but should CAD begin to strengthen at open tonight or tomorrow, you have a tangible reason to buy CAD. this isn't a random event it is something you can trade almost every day of every week which is how I make a living. ECB last week I made 4.75 percent on the initial release, a reactionary trade that is not random.

so if you are just testing technical strategies without any input into those amazing and profitable events then you will be rather depressed at the results.

If we entertain the idea that perhaps you found a better mouse trap, it's very likely that many other people have found it also
You and them cannot be right all the time and you and them cannot be wrong all the time
The same goes for Technical Analysis (Totally Asinine) or Fundamental Analysis (Funny Mental analysis)
Therefore it's always a question of probability, it can never be a sure thing, unless of course you are a fan of those late night forex infomercials. They seem to have all the answers on how to become a retail forex millionaire.

And rightly so, you are saying that randomness is a problem, because indeed the markets are random.

Why navigate the bullshit when any real job will make more money long term than any venture in retail forex trading

the markets are NOT random if you trade an event that the market pays attention to.

doubtful.

not only do I make more money than the bottom 90 percent but I have a better work life balance. tomorrow morning I'll be on the golf course followed by a walk on the beach and ending with a few drinks on my decking with this view. you on the other hand will be getting ready to take orders from your boss having a dress code and a set time to be at work and when to leave.

Was it you last night acting in that forex infomercial ?
But wait you forgot to mention your flying session

You are not staying on topic
Here it is again:

Therefore it's always a question of probability, it can never be a sure thing, unless of course you are a fan of those late night forex infomercials. They seem to have all the answers on how to become a retail forex millionaire.

I am right on subject to your statement of a working life being better tha a forex life. now as to your statement on probability. if it is based on hindsight analysis then I would say its worth far less in terms of quality than if it was based on a news event. you don't have to predict in order to make money. you just need to know when an event is significant to the extent that there is scope for profit while the market is reacting.