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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #281
  • Aug 31, 2019 7:43pm Aug 31, 2019 7:43pm
Quoting clemmo17
A big problem with the 'currency trading is bad for society' argument is that some people in power, notably regulators, believe it on some level and then implement stupid rules to try to offset the risks. Inevitably they just make the problem worse. FIFO anyone? In Canada almost every FX trader has no choice but to use an offshore, poorly regulated broker because the restrictions placed by IIROC on brokers means its not worth the hassle of taking Canadians. This ironically increases the risk to Canadian traders. You know what's bad for society?...
have to say the Canadian government is going towards keeping people poor so they rely on the government for hand outs so they stop people from making money it will get worse
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #282
  • Sep 4, 2019 10:53am Sep 4, 2019 10:53am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} How would this work in the ontext of a popular thread like Davit's "Pivot trading" ?
This gives an overview how affiliate programs work in FX:

https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...iate-programs/

How could they generate money?
In a popular thread the thread owner is attracting a lot of interest, newbies or retail traders that want to learn from the master.
They are looking for advice and for a mentor that helps them to become "profitable".
As soon as they have built up trust they offer to help to get better trading conditions, because they claim to have good connections to brokers.

Good chance that the affiliate does indeed have very good trading conditions, better than a new trader would get if he would sign up directly on the website of a broker. So far it looks like a win - win for the newbie..... and since they intend to open an account anyway, why not with better conditions and recommended by someone they trust?

He can now either channel them to his broker through a own website with affilate links or can also send sign up links via other means (email, etc). He can even have a direct contact person at the broker that signs up the new customer conventionally - "special offer only for my friends".

As soon as the newbie deposits real money, he is getting his first payment from the broker.
Typically he also earns additional money based on the trading activity of the new client - this is where the real money starts to roll in.
If he creates a base of let say 30 traders that trade on high leverage he can achive a significant revenue stream.

If you are very good in this game it is certainly more attractive than trading.

In this article you can find how costs to lure in new victim rise......
https://financefeeds.com/average-ret...le-status-quo/

Maybe the two of us helped a little to drive this costs.... which would be pretty cool.
  • #283
  • Sep 5, 2019 2:19pm Sep 5, 2019 2:19pm
Binary option fraud..... the main factors are very similar to retail forex:

In German, but for newbies a must to understand your rotten counterpart:

https://multimedia.boerse.ard.de/gla...ker-video#5693
  • #284
  • Sep 5, 2019 2:50pm Sep 5, 2019 2:50pm
I especially like the part where a employee from the Israely binary broker has been asked wether he received bonuses based on the money a customer paid in on his account or on the net amount between paid in and the money withdrawn......

he said, just on the money paid in, because there was never a customer who was able to withdraw any money....

Howmany here on FF claimed they make money with binary options?

So explain why an employee of one of the very big players in this field tells none - absolutly none - gained money.

Retail forex trading is a negative sum game for losers.
  • #285
  • Sep 6, 2019 2:46am Sep 6, 2019 2:46am
And the beat goes on:

https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...l-fx-deposits/

https://www.financemagnates.com/wp-c...Untitled-2.png

Is this bad for US retail customers? No - they lose far less money.

Is this bad for interactive brokers? No

Why?

Because Thomas Peterffy realized early on that a business model where almost all of your customers lose money is really bad for the reputation of the company and might cause one day some serious legal backlashes. So he started to get rid off small retail fx traders. He likely knows that one day the pendelum will swing back and hit those who preyed on the countless, powerless gambling addicts strategically spreading lies of epic porportions.

https://financefeeds.com/did-interac...ents-in-china/

In a press release, Thomas Peterffy, Chairman and CEO, explained that “Today retail order-flow is purchased by large order internalizers and joining them would represent a conflict we do not wish to have. On the other hand, providing liquidity to sophisticated, professional synthesizers of short-term fundamental, technical and big data is not a profitable activity”.

In other words... channeling new victims into the retail forex space so that the professionals can prey on them is not a smart move. I fully agree.

But sadly IB won't stop it completly, rather shifting the focus on other hunting grounds with a better legal risk / reward ratio. However, it is a start and I still believe that Mr. Peterffy will exit retail forex earlier than others.

Retail FX is currently pushed out of the better regulated markets into places where regulation is still weak or non existent. So the next phase will be to let the shady brokers concentrate their activities in such jurisdictions and finally crush them alltogether.

Switzerland certainly needs addtional regulation too and has to implement negative balance protection and leverage caps asap.

The core message is slowy penetrating the market:

Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.

Get it or lose it.
  • #286
  • Sep 6, 2019 2:59am Sep 6, 2019 2:59am
Quoting HudithePfupf
Goals: This thread should help to uncover the marketing lies of the forex industry. Please post scientific publications and reports from regulators about CFD's, binary options and retail forex. If somebody has knowledge about leaked statistical data from forex brokers that prove how retailers are getting ripped off in an epic scale... post what you have. Post evidence about tail risk in extreme market conditions (SNB event on January 15th, 2015, flash crashes, extreme spread widenings...) post facts, not fiction As as starting point, this is a good...

Not true: brokers are obliged by law to show the numbers of traders loosing, it´s more like 75%, like in any other business..
It is NOT a negative Sum game of loosers, check Robert Miner´s statistics, on a contest with real money, second place last year, doubled his capital...first place this year.
Robert also won the first prize 20 years ago trading commodities.

https://twitter.com/BobatDT

If you are a looser , just quit, but don´t waste other peoples time with fake information.If you want to win, please make more effort....study, study study...
  • #287
  • Sep 6, 2019 3:08am Sep 6, 2019 3:08am
Play poker against pros, loose your shirt, and blame it on the House...Pros love your kind...
  • #288
  • Sep 6, 2019 3:29am Sep 6, 2019 3:29am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} Not true: brokers are obliged by law to show the numbers of traders loosing, it´s more like 75%, like in any other business.. ...
Ohh common.... the 75% is just 12 months....

12 month 0.75
24 month 0.0625
36 month 0.015
....

After 3 years.... all is gone.

An retail forex trading is not a business..... it's gambling.
  • #289
  • Edited 4:54am Sep 6, 2019 3:34am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting cuchuflito
Play poker against pros, loose your shirt, and blame it on the House...Pros love your kind...
First chess, then Go.... and now poker.

The first AI wins against pro poker players..... so think about the implications on retail forex trading.

Maybe one day you'll get it or you certainly lose it.
  • #290
  • Sep 6, 2019 5:49am Sep 6, 2019 5:49am
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} check Robert Miner´s statistics,....study, study study...
Robert miner is a classical example. An other trading mentor..... (aka shovel seller).
You drop the name to lure the readers towards his dt7 software.....don't you?

Jesus.... he doesn't even have a company adress on his site!
How do you know with whom you legally deal if you just have an email adress and f...king mobile phone number.

Seriously, those who pay 1000 USD for software or buying his training courses or books or whatever product - oh my... what shall I say.
It's hard to believe they still find new victims but they do. These shovel seller sites are copy - paste orgies. All look very similar.

A company must have a clear legal entity, a business adress and a real management.
If this is not the case - expect fraud and scam.
  • #291
  • Sep 6, 2019 6:02am Sep 6, 2019 6:02am
WRONG AGAIN, you must be big looser, sorry for that, especially if you spend so much time writing here.

You need to really find Miner´s credentials before accusing him of being a scam, you could get into legal troubles.
Just look up the 3 Contests in which he participated (and is participating), with real money.

I bought the software, studied 10 years and more, I am profitable, and on top of that I enjoy trading. I own my own business, work from home. Play classical guitar as a hobby, enjoy that very much too.
Both trading and classical guitar are similar, 10000 hours of study to get started.
But wasting time here won´t get you there.
I´m done with the discussion, wish you the best of luck in life anyway.
  • #292
  • Sep 6, 2019 7:15am Sep 6, 2019 7:15am
So why don't you team up with fractalfreak..... he is a good saxaphone player.

Ladies and Gentlemen, ....the incredible, ....... the unforgetable...

FOREX BLUES BROTHERS....



I would rather listen to your youtube music clips than to your trading advice.
It's better for my financial health.
  • #293
  • Sep 8, 2019 5:38am Sep 8, 2019 5:38am
Quoting HudithePfupf
So why don't you team up with fractalfreak..... he is a good saxaphone player. Ladies and Gentlemen, ....the incredible, ....... the unforgetable... FOREX BLUES BROTHERS.... I would rather listen to your youtube music clips than to your trading advice. It's better for my financial health.

Sounds great, but I don´t play in public and don´t give financial advice .
Guitar is described as the easiest instrument to learn, and the hardest to play well.
Some human beings excell in their endeavors, through hard work and total dedication...
Best trader I know, averages a million a week, works 12 hours a day, wakes up at 3 am. His main problem is execution, his orders are so big, he needs 3 different brokers.
True, there´s a lot of scams, stop hunting, market manipulation, you name it.
But to deny the fact that there´s many people making money trading, is just an excuse for not putting in the effort needed.
Making 5 or 10% a year is very possible if you don´t want to sacrifice 12 hours a day.
First step is to find a few people that are not scams, and learn from them. They made it there also learning from others. Just to find these, and being able to recognize their value is a feat in itself.

Here´s one of the best classical guitar players in the planet...started as a little girl, 8 hour a day practice schedule.
Notice in the video she plays Bach (extremely difficult), and hardly looks at the fret while performing...

Inserted Video


Have a great weekend.
  • #294
  • Sep 8, 2019 9:27pm Sep 8, 2019 9:27pm
If you have faced loss then it does not mean every other person in Forex is loser. Many points affects trading. You should have focused on it.
  • #295
  • Edited 3:30pm Sep 12, 2019 2:58pm | Edited 3:30pm
To Aussi, Butty, Tropy, Chucu.... and all the other spin doctors of profitable retail trading.....

Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers! TM

Study the attached paper. This is the reality. Get it or lose it.
My performance is better than 99% here on FF - because I do not day trade retail forex.

Here you see real data over a at least 300 trading days period of futures day trading in Brasil.

The results are even worse of what I claim based on extrapolation of data from CFTC, ESMA, ANF, etc

Brasil day traders starting between 2013 -2015

Those who persisted over 300 days:

  1. 97% lost money,
  2. 0.4 % earned just an average of 54 USD / day
  3. the very best trader earned a 310 USD +/ 2560 USD per day

This is absolutly devastating - How could I have been such a ridiculus optimist for so long if the real numbers are even worse of what I claimed?
This is worse than what you get if you simulate the loss / profit distribution in a simple efficient market model with typical trading costs!
Therefore those who are still in profit in this evaluation can be fully explained by pure luck.
And honestly, if the standard deviation is 8 times your average daily profit you will blow up very soon....

This is exactly the data I am continously looking for. I am sure what you see here can be found in every zero sum market world wide.

You guys are losing your money at a breath taking speed. Nonetheless so many claim to be profitable with absolutly zero evidence.

Isn't it a crime to offer such a service to retail traders - I mean a broker could steal your money at gun point on day one and you would be far better off, because you would have saved 299 days that you could use to do something productive instead - a real job - you would be even better off. Think about it.

Is there still one person not convinced yet?

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf SSRN-id3423101.pdf   235 KB | 443 downloads
  • #296
  • Sep 12, 2019 7:30pm Sep 12, 2019 7:30pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
To Aussi, Butty, Tropy, Chucu.... and all the other spin doctors of profitable retail trading..... Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers! TM Study the attached paper. This is the reality. Get it or lose it. My performance is better than 99% here on FF - because I do not day trade retail forex. Here you see real data over a at least 300 trading days period of futures day trading in Brasil. The results are even worse of what I claim based on extrapolation of data from CFTC, ESMA, ANF, etc Brasil day traders starting between 2013 -2015 Those...
interesting thesis, however you are forgetting that financial markets consist more than just the fx market asset class the correlation between the different classes are even more alarming similar.

it is true tho that most retail traders do not have access/know the purpose/corelation to many other financial market instruments. instead having to repeat trading the same few currency pairs repeatedly
  • #297
  • Sep 12, 2019 8:06pm Sep 12, 2019 8:06pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
To Aussi, Butty, Tropy, Chucu.... and all the other spin doctors of profitable retail trading..... Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers! TM Study the attached paper. This is the reality. Get it or lose it. My performance is better than 99% here on FF - because I do not day trade retail forex. Here you see real data over a at least 300 trading days period of futures day trading in Brasil. The results are even worse of what I claim based on extrapolation of data from CFTC, ESMA, ANF, etc Brasil day traders starting between 2013 -2015 Those...
""" Aussi, Butty, Tropy, Chucu.... and all the other spin doctors of profitable retail trading..... Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers! """

well well again you call traders names for no other reason but to push a agenda that is untrue , bring a one sided story to enhance your position well done mate your getting a reputation for being a winger , it is not my fault you constantly blow your accounts , it your fault for not learning trading in the first place ., its like going school if you do not learn your marks have a low grade , if you learn your marks have a high grade , your spelling tells me it all , please do not call us names because we are better than you at trading
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #298
  • Sep 12, 2019 8:19pm Sep 12, 2019 8:19pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
To Aussi, Butty, Tropy, Chucu.... and all the other spin doctors of profitable retail trading..... Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers! TM Study the attached paper. This is the reality. Get it or lose it. My performance is better than 99% here on FF - because I do not day trade retail forex. Here you see real data over a at least 300 trading days period of futures day trading in Brasil. The results are even worse of what I claim based on extrapolation of data from CFTC, ESMA, ANF, etc Brasil day traders starting between 2013 -2015 Those...

ok so retail lose most of the time...so trade the opposite to them. Simple !

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=761579
  • #299
  • Sep 12, 2019 8:30pm Sep 12, 2019 8:30pm
Quoting shrips
{quote} ok so retail lose most of the time...so trade the opposite to them. Simple ! https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=761579

perfect
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #300
  • Sep 13, 2019 12:04am Sep 13, 2019 12:04am
Quoting HudithePfupf
To Aussi, Butty, Tropy, Chucu.... and all the other spin doctors of profitable retail trading..... Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers! TM Study the attached paper. This is the reality. Get it or lose it. My performance is better than 99% here on FF - because I do not day trade retail forex. Here you see real data over a at least 300 trading days period of futures day trading in Brasil. The results are even worse of what I claim based on extrapolation of data from CFTC, ESMA, ANF, etc Brasil day traders starting between 2013 -2015 Those...
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hudithepfupf do you get it
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
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