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Tug of war in market flows

  • #281
  • Sep 9, 2019 3:00am Sep 9, 2019 3:00am
So,

Back to what I talked about in the first post before I edited it:

THE TWO EXTREMES - TUG OF WAR BETWEEN RETAIL VOLUME AND OTHER PARTIES/PRICE

When price been moving away more than volume support (end of price manipulation)
And,
When volume tries to move away but price doesn't support (beginning of price manipulation)
  • #282
  • Sep 9, 2019 3:05am Sep 9, 2019 3:05am
I attached a detailed showing on today's intraday data and predictions:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: intraday0909+.png Size: 74 KB
  • #283
  • Sep 9, 2019 3:17am Sep 9, 2019 3:17am
[quote = Lekkim; 12490613] {quote} Эй, erex Не могли бы вы уточнить, пожалуйста? Спасибо [/цитата]

Everything was so optimistic. Then a short pause. Today posts about the problems. When did these problems occur?
  • #284
  • Sep 9, 2019 3:26am Sep 9, 2019 3:26am
Bar charts show tug of war flows time updates stated with white text connecting to result by the white line.

Red = price%
Green volume%

Top right chart = shows each currencies price movement since the close on Friday:
AUD: purple
NZD: pink
CAD: lightpink
GBP: lightgreen
EUR: orange
USD: red
CHF: green
JPY: blue

Charts below show price development from each of the four-time updates
Update charts the color changes to the prediction:

Most green = Biggest difference where price been making a fake move down
Less green = Similiar like ^ but not as attractive

Most red = Biggest difference where price been making a fake move up
Less red = Similiar like ^ but not as attractive

Most lightblue = Biggest difference where volume been trying to push the price down but must surrender
Less lightblue = Similiar like ^ but not as attractive

Most pink = Biggest difference where volume been trying to push the price up but must surrender
Less pink = Similiar like ^ but not as attractive

Yellow = None or irreverent small divergence (no trade on yellows)
  • #285
  • Sep 9, 2019 4:03am Sep 9, 2019 4:03am
I'm considering making a video, explaining this system in more in detail/depth,
is this something you would like viewers?

Bonus info: As you see on post around 1h ago, the most attractive intraday trade was a GBP buy since retails barely sold it and it was down -0,35 - it exploded 0,50% higher in 1h after that. Notice also how it was at sell earlier today (example of how to use data)

So first off this week the herd try to push GBP higher but must capitulate , then the following drop is heavier (f**ks over retails), then adjusting back up again.
Textbook. Beautiful. Doesn't always works that well though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.PNG Size: 55 KB
  • #286
  • Sep 9, 2019 4:47am Sep 9, 2019 4:47am
Inserted Video
Attached Image
  • #287
  • Sep 9, 2019 5:19am Sep 9, 2019 5:19am
Quoting Lekkim
I'm considering making a video, explaining this system in more in detail/depth, is this something you would like viewers? Bonus info: As you see on post around 1h ago, the most attractive intraday trade was a GBP buy since retails barely sold it and it was down -0,35 - it exploded 0,50% higher in 1h after that. Notice also how it was at sell earlier today (example of how to use data) So first off this week the herd try to push GBP higher but must capitulate , then the following drop is heavier (f**ks over retails),...
Video would be great! just found this thread 2 hrs ago but this is something I have been trying to learn more about. Will you be educating us the tools or indicator u are using too ? Thanks
  • #288
  • Edited 12:22pm Sep 9, 2019 10:50am | Edited 12:22pm
Quoting erex
[quote = Lekkim; 12490613] {quote} Эй, erex Не могли бы вы уточнить, пожалуйста? Спасибо [/цитата] Everything was so optimistic. Then a short pause. Today posts about the problems. When did these problems occur?
Let me refer you to post 274, 277 and 278,
if you have further questions, let me know
  • #289
  • Edited 11:40am Sep 9, 2019 10:54am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting joshuayip
{quote} Video would be great! just found this thread 2 hrs ago but this is something I have been trying to learn more about. Will you be educating us the tools or indicator u are using too ? Thanks
Welcome onboard, joshuayip!

Ok cool, thanks for responding - I'll look into the video course tour idea.

I'll continue opening up and educating what I discover + sharing knowledge/information.
For now, my plan is not to sell any volume source data, indicator, software, tool or spreadsheet, (I didn't make some of the software and indicator, I made tools, spreadsheet calculations and own indicators from raw volume data I extract/receive from third part)
However, I'm always open for an investor and would potentially show full disclosure to a partner.

We'll see where this goes - as soon as I by myself or with interested parties raise the capital needed, I'll take this live.
  • #290
  • Sep 9, 2019 12:10pm Sep 9, 2019 12:10pm
Today posts showed real-time tug of war predictions intraday.

This is great, but now imagine having these flow chart on all timeframes
So I made an overview calculation of all timeframes with 4 alternative calculation methods. All data valuable, but if your approach would be day trading, lesser timeframes should be more in focus. It doesn't get better than that.

13 different timeframes idea for 'total market overview' doubles up each historical lookback on volume/price: Intraday, 1 day, 2 days, 4 days, 1,5 week, 3 weeks, 1,5 month, 3 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 4 years, 8 years

Calc 1 = (C1+C2+C3+C4+C5+C6+C7+C8+C9+C10+C11+C12+C13) pure non edited showings

Calc 2 =(C1*1)+(C2*2)+(C3*3)+(C4*4)+(C5*5)+(C6*6)+(C7*7)+(C8*8)+(C9*9)+(C10*10)+(C11*11)+(C12*12)+(C13*13) Lesser timeframe gradually weighs more

Calc 3 =(C1*1)+(C2*2)+(C3*4)+(C4*8)+(C5*16)+(C6*32)+(C7*64)+(C8*128)+(C9*256)+(C10*512)+(C11*1024)+(C12*2048)+(C13*4096) importance on each timeframe equally

Calc 4 =(C1/1)+(C2/2)+(C3/4)+(C4/8)+(C5/16)+(C6/32)+(C7/64)+(C8/128)+(C9/256)+(C10/512)+(C11/1024)+(C12/2048)+(C13/4096) importance on each timeframe equally

Calc 5 = (numbers of positive numbers divided by numbers of negative numbers) a 'what if' type of calc

Total market control = (Calc1+Calc2+Calc3+Calc4+Calc5)/5 ?
  • #291
  • Sep 9, 2019 6:27pm Sep 9, 2019 6:27pm
Price and volume generally follow each other so far this week

still, some divergence as attached in screenshot:
Attached Image
  • #292
  • Sep 9, 2019 9:17pm Sep 9, 2019 9:17pm
Method how-to
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: method.png Size: 8 KB
  • #293
  • Sep 10, 2019 9:02am Sep 10, 2019 9:02am
In search of the ultimate client volume flow.. (havent found it yet) at least not something that works intraday.

Below showing Lekkim trades 21-29 Aug. compared to 3 big brokers client sentiment data in the same timeframe.

The 50% line is below the picture, and seems to be of no importance.. Clients are bullish the whole time and Lekkim taking many trades both ways.

I can not share the indicator, as it is a paid one. Anyway Lekkim's volume data is way better...

http://https://www.forexfactory.com/...9&d=1567102218

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD15_sentiment2.jpg Size: 235 KB


Can the datafeed come from other source than one of the big brokers, as it seems to be to slow for intra day trading?

Following this thread with interest.
  • #294
  • Sep 10, 2019 12:36pm Sep 10, 2019 12:36pm
Quoting Bundy
In search of the ultimate client volume flow.. (havent found it yet) at least not something that works intraday. Below showing Lekkim trades 21-29 Aug. compared to 3 big brokers client sentiment data in the same timeframe. The 50% line is below the picture, and seems to be of no importance.. Clients are bullish the whole time and Lekkim taking many trades both ways. I can not share the indicator, as it is a paid one. Anyway Lekkim's volume data is way better... http://https://www.forexfactory.com/...9&d=1567102218...
I can very much relate to your search and R&D.

I spent years searching for valid and reliable volume data as well. Problem being lack of real-time and update speed. I looked into both sentiments, COT report, CME option and futures data, polls, etc - everything that could provide a somewhat indication of herd behavior.

Most data available to the public is an overall sentiment, insufficient, lagging and delayed. No market maker is interested in us getting the same information as them, hence we would be able to see through their manipulation.

Eiter we gotta go 'take it' the providers/brokers (you would need programming/coding skills and you could dig into mql (or other software api) or,
find out who provided the data to the brokers.

Best wishes on your search - maybe we could get our heads together since you're from here as well (Denmark)
  • #295
  • Sep 12, 2019 2:36am Sep 12, 2019 2:36am
Current intraday situation (11-09-2019 23:00 until now 12-09-2019 09:35)
Attached Image
  • #296
  • Sep 12, 2019 2:43am Sep 12, 2019 2:43am
Attached Image
  • #297
  • Sep 12, 2019 2:50am Sep 12, 2019 2:50am
Intraday predictions as read from bar chart

AUD 18% down
NZD 11% down
CAD 5% up
GBP 26% up
EUR 7% down
USD 9% up
CHF 12% down
JPY 12% up
  • #298
  • Sep 12, 2019 3:33am Sep 12, 2019 3:33am
Quote
13 different timeframes idea for 'total market overview' doubles up each historical lookback on volume/price: Intraday, 1 day, 2 days, 4 days, 1,5 week, 3 weeks, 1,5 month, 3 month, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 4 years, 8 years

I'm in the making of finishing this spreadsheet calculation with tug of war analysis on all timeframes/lines,
also a video of more in-depth explaining is coming up tomorrow or next week
  • #299
  • Sep 12, 2019 5:38am Sep 12, 2019 5:38am
Quoting Lekkim
Intraday predictions as read from bar chart AUD 18% down NZD 11% down CAD 5% up GBP 26% up EUR 7% down USD 9% up CHF 12% down JPY 12% up
How the earlier intraday prediction is going/developed since then (around 0,30% total unlevereged)
Attached Image
  • #300
  • Sep 12, 2019 6:55am Sep 12, 2019 6:55am
Change of scenery
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