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Time and Price Forecasting

  • #21
  • Aug 31, 2019 2:28am Aug 31, 2019 2:28am
Gartley and Elliott spoke the same language
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Click to Enlarge Name: Gartley and Elloitt.jpg Size: 34 KB
Guess What? So did Gann !!!
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Click to Enlarge Name: Gartley-Gann-Ellliott all share the same common.jpg Size: 73 KB
"Geometric Trading is a trading method that utilizes the science of Geometry to forecast market reversals in Price and Time".
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #22
  • Edited 3:26am Aug 31, 2019 2:47am | Edited 3:26am
If one uses just basic tools they can made money at trading using four simple tools alone.
% Swing Chart Overlay
Price Retracements
Price Extentions
Price Expansions
When I get some time I'll post examples of each.
Let me explain something to you guys, I read, re-read, and re-read many books by Gann, Baumring, Cowan, Ferrera, Goulden, Prandelli till I was blue in the face, guess what? I didn't it and thought all of them were full of crap. Then one day a light bulb went on and it all made sense. But, by and large W.D. Gann was at the top and everyone else stemmed from his work.

****I will soon make a short video so you guys can do some of this stuff by yourself off your computer with a a piece of paper, a Protractor, ruler and dividers. You'll could be amazed on what was under neath you nose all the time. That will give you confidence.
I'm trying to get you guys to think, everything is out there.
P
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #23
  • Edited 9:45am Aug 31, 2019 4:32am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting priceact.fx
Thanks for the wealth of information, Pete. Using fundamental / sentiment analysis, GBPCAD was bearish (CAD's GDP printed green and as we are aware, Brexit is wearing down on GBP) and then using the SQRT(2), SQRT(3) and SQRT(5) method helped determine the timing aspect of reversal and Gann Square of 9 calculations helped determine the potential S/R levels....also use Davit's pivots to determine the buy / sell zones. Entered SELL on GBPCAD @ 1.62285 (a zone of price and time balance - more or less) and exited @ 1.6181 for a profit of 47 pips. The...
And that is exactly how it's done. Give that man a cigar !!! Good Post priceact.fx this is a perfect example of what happens when you break away from the herd mentality. My intention is to open ones mind and realize that there are alternatives to following the herd. From the responses I can tell some of you have heard of this type of trading. However, if I have the time, I'm going to try to change all of that so you don't end up going over the cliff. Let's not forget, this thread is not all about me, I invite any of you out there to participate if you have something important to say, OK?
Attached Image
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #24
  • Aug 31, 2019 8:41am Aug 31, 2019 8:41am
Thank you very much, waiting for more.
  • #25
  • Edited Sep 1, 2019 9:09am Aug 31, 2019 9:55am | Edited Sep 1, 2019 9:09am
Quoting DiamondMiner
{quote} And that is exactly how it's done. Give that man a cigar !!! Good Post priceact.fx this is a perfect example of what happens when you break away from the herd mentality. My intention is to open ones mind and realize that there are alternatives to following the herd. From the responses I can tell some of you have heard of this type of trading. However, if I have the time, I'm going to try to change all of that so you don't end up going over the cliff. {image}
Thank you, for your kind words, Pete. For the coming week, I have identified the following pairs based on fundamental / sentiment

GBPUSD (Bearish) GBPCAD (Bearish), GBPAUD (Bearish), EURUSD (Bearish), EURCAD( Bearish), EURAUD (Bearish), USDJPY (Bullish), AUDNZD (Biullish) and have marked the S/R levels on the charts (on M5 timeframe) by using GANN Square of 9 method. Next, i will continue to monitor the charts for price time balance (using the SQRT of 2,3,5 method) to identify potential trading opportunities.

I had downloaded a spreadsheet that calculates the levels (Need to input a price level - highest or lowest in a given time frame - i use M5 or M15.
I minimize the charts and find the level. if the S/R levels identified by the calculations in the spreadsheet have already been breached by the price, i input the next lowest or highest level.

I cannot recollect where i downloaded the spreadsheet from - My heartfelt thanks to the source. Attached is a copy. When using it, please do remove the decimal value from the price. Example: for EURUSD, instead of 1.1092, use 11092 and once the levels are calculated in the spreadsheet, add the decimal back when marking the level on the charts.

Hope fellow traders find this useful.

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Gann-Square-of-9-Calculator.xlsx   15 KB | 3,197 downloads
  • #26
  • Aug 31, 2019 10:00am Aug 31, 2019 10:00am
Quoting priceact.fx
{quote} Thank you, for your kind words, Pete. For the coming week, I have identified the following pairs based on fundamental / sentiment GBPUSD (Bearish) GBPCAD (Bearish), GBPAUD (Bearish), EURUSD (Bearish), EURCAD( Bearish), EURAUD (Bearish), USDJPY (Bullish) and have marked the S/R levels on the charts (on M5 timeframe) by using GANN Square of 9 method. Next, i will continue to monitor the charts for price time balance (using the SQRT of 2,3,5 method) to identify potential trading opportunities. I had downloaded a spreadsheet that calculates...
Priceact.fx, thanks for the spread sheets. Personally, even if people just used the Square of Nine, their trading probably would improve. Thanks Bro
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #27
  • Edited 10:25am Aug 31, 2019 10:11am | Edited 10:25am
Hi priceact. I apologize for my English.
I'm sorry, I didn't show up.
My name is Sergio and I live in Italy

Months ago I read a book on how to use "Gann Square of 9 calculations".
Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to insert the potential levels.
I decided to write this message after reading your post Post 25, I was fascinated by how you did the analysis.
Can you explain better how you do analysis?
What does "SQRT(2), SQRT(3) and SQRT(5)" mean? do you use any particular software?

I also ask for help from Peter, whom I thank in advance.
I really want to study Gann.

Thank you all and apologize again for my bad English.
Ciao.
  • #28
  • Aug 31, 2019 10:27am Aug 31, 2019 10:27am
Quoting ponson
Hi priceact. I apologize for my English. Months ago I read a book on how to use "Gann Square of 9 calculations". Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to insert the potential levels. I decided to write this message after reading your post Post 25, I was fascinated by how you did the analysis. Can you explain better how you do analysis? What does "SQRT(2), SQRT(3) and SQRT(5)" mean? do you use any particular software? I also ask for help from DiamondMiner, whom I thank in advance. I really want to study Gann. Thank you all and apologize again...
Ponson, I can't answer for Priceact.fx but I'd say it's short for Square Root of ( ). Jenkins and probably Gann is famous for finding the square root to determine Support and Resistance See screenshot from Michael S. Jenkins video.
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Ponson, there are numerous ways to do a lot of things. But, all of this stuff is all about mathematics, the only true science he have.
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #29
  • Edited 10:53am Aug 31, 2019 10:39am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting DiamondMiner
{quote} Ponson, I can't answer for Priceact.fx but I'd say it's short for Square Root of ( ). Jenkins and probably Gann is famous for finding the square root to determine Support and Resistance See screenshot from Michael S. Jenkins video. {image} Ponson, there are numerous ways to do a lot of things. But, all of this stuff is all about mathematics, the only true science he have.
Thank you, Peter, for taking my call. I forgot my name is Sergio
I understand what you're saying, "that there are many ways to do things."
You where I suggest to start, but I have a small problem with the videos I have difficulty understanding them.
Do you have something simple to understand to start understanding "Gann Square of 9 calculations"?
If it is not possible not to worry I will try to understand by myself what I find on the net.
Here in Italy there are not many people who know and use Gann.
I have only met one person who asks for too many Euros for his course, which I do not have of course.
I hope you understand what I've written.
Thank you anyway.
  • #30
  • Aug 31, 2019 10:53am Aug 31, 2019 10:53am
Quoting DiamondMiner
{quote} Priceact.fx, thanks for the spread sheets. Personally, even if people just used the Square of Nine, their trading probably would improve. Thanks Bro
You are welcome, Bro. Thank you for providing the videos and starting me re-think in the direction of Gann's approach and price time balance.
  • #31
  • Aug 31, 2019 11:16am Aug 31, 2019 11:16am
Quoting ponson
Hi priceact. I apologize for my English. I'm sorry, I didn't show up. My name is Sergio and I live in Italy Months ago I read a book on how to use "Gann Square of 9 calculations". Unfortunately, I couldn't figure out how to insert the potential levels. I decided to write this message after reading your post Post 25, I was fascinated by how you did the analysis. Can you explain better how you do analysis? What does "SQRT(2), SQRT(3) and SQRT(5)" mean? do you use any particular software? I also ask for help from Peter, whom I thank in advance. I really...
Hi Sergio, Thank you for going through my post. I do not use any special software for the Square root calculations. I calculate using calculator or Excel. I am not sure if this is the best way to use the SQRT method but this seems to work in back testing and forward testing - so far.

Example: USDJPY: Price: 106.16 was the price when i calculated the potential turning times in terms of bars on M5 (you can use the current price)

Price * SQRT(2) = 150.13 (Divide this by 10 and get the nearest integer = 15)
Price * SQRT (3) = 183.87 (Divide this by 10 and get the nearest integer = 18)
Price * SQRT (5) = 237.38 (Divide this by 10 and get the nearest integer = 24)

(I used a combination of back testing and the above SQRT results to come up with the divide by 10 approach for JPY pairs (For non JPY pairs, i multiply by 10 to come up with the number of bars) - so that i get a reasonable number of bars - I have done this with a limited knowledge and would like to defer to Experts in Gann and Price / Time forecasting methods to help with a different or better way of doing this. )

I try to get an integer from there that i can use to determine the 3 potential turning bars on the chart. It can get a little subjective here as to which bar needs to be used as starting point to count. I start counting the bars from the previous immediate reasonable swing of price movement. I check which bar (18th versus 24th) comes closest to the price levels determined by Gann's Square of 9 (you can use the spreadsheet attached in the earlier post to calculate Gann's Square of 9 levels and mark the charts).

In the attached USDJPY image, the arrow points to the bar where i start counting and the oval points to the bar where i end the counting. A BUY on USDJPY can be entered any where after that as close to the Support level as possible (marked by RED horizontal line) Or if you are a conservative trader, wait for a bullish bar to give you the confirmation. I use similar counting for exit.

Please do not apologize. You have communicated your question quite well and my english is not perfect.

Hope this helps.

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Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.jpg Size: 166 KB
  • #32
  • Edited 7:48am Sep 1, 2019 2:54am | Edited 7:48am
I recommend reading if you hadn't "The Secret Science of the Stock Market" by Michael S. Jenkins. It contains a wealth of information for trading success.
Attached Image
If you followed most of the suggestions he makes in the book about 90% of you problems in trading would be gone.
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #33
  • Edited 10:59am Sep 1, 2019 9:36am | Edited 10:59am
I would be using the following steps to determine the pairs for the week and identify potential trading opportunities, enter and exit:

1. Using Fundamental / Sentiment analysis, determine the strong versus weak currencies. I use "weekly" view of the news events from forexfactory.

The week of 9/1 has high impact news for the following currencies USD, AUD, CAD (mainly.. although CHF and GBP have one high impact news each)
Based on fundamental events in the recent past, the following currencies are weak: GBP, EUR, NZD and the following currencies are strong: CAD, USD,
AUD

Using the above, i come up with the following currency pairs along with the direction of trade for this week:
GBPCAD SELL
GBPAUD SELL
GBPUSD SELL

EURCAD SELL
EURAUD SELL
EURUSD SELL

USDJPY BUY

AUDNZD BUY

2. Open the charts for the above pairs in MT4 (M5 timeframe) and load Davit's pivots template (from Davit's Pivot trading system). My heart felt thanks to Davit and many other fellow traders for their contribution to the templates, indicators and Pivot trading system.

3. Using the Spreadsheet (Post # 25) in this thread, i calculate the Gann Square of 9 levels and mark them on the charts.

4. Next, using SQRT method, i calculate the numbers for all the pairs listed above and wait for market to make a significant move in the opposite direction of the trading direction listed above (the move should consist of healthy candles and not small or sideways moving candles). I look for potential reversals @ one of the three numbers calculated by SQRT method (I count the bars as mentioned in post # 31)

5. Once i see a "Price and Time balance" using confluence of levels calculated in Step 3 above (as well as other pivot levels and round numbers - 100, or 1000 levels), using proper money management, i enter the trades. I use Davit's pivots to also identify BUY / SELL zones and higher the confluence and probability, i use higher position size. If i get a SELL opportunity near S38, S61 etc, i reduce the position size OR simply stay out of the market - since these levels correspond to reversal zones based on the pivots.

6. I usually exit near the next level (pivot or Gann's Square of 9 level or 100 / 1000 round number or a confluence of these) and / or if the number of bars get close
to one of the three numbers calculated using SQRT method. I will definitely exit if the bar count reaches the highest number of the three.

I learnt the hard way that Fundamental / Sentiment analysis cannot be skipped just because it takes time and may not always be easy to learn. Using only technical analysis resulted in inconsistent results over many many years of my personal trading.

Hope this helps.
  • #34
  • Edited 5:32pm Sep 1, 2019 9:53am | Edited 5:32pm
I've always felt that Fundamental Analysis is the direct product of Economic Factors + Statistical Factors.
Example below is of How I hunt for a potential trade. There is a check list of filters to qualify.
I never want to take just any trade, I only take the trade that I hold an edge.
I had done a scan for Gartley Patterns, in the chart below it's identified in Red in the center. Then I found another one (Gartley) directly after the previous one. Upon applying the Beck's Emblem tool(in green) at the X to A leg clearly shows the Gartley Pattern already formed up to C leg. Reversal is expected in the upper right tip of the Quadrilateral tool.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NJ long_1.jpg Size: 160 KB
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #35
  • Sep 1, 2019 12:02pm Sep 1, 2019 12:02pm
Quoting DiamondMiner
I recommend reading if you hadn't "The Secret Science of the Stock Market" by Michael S. Jenkins. It contains a wealth of information for trading success.{image} If you followed most of the suggestions he makes in the book about 90% of you problems in trading would be gone.
Epiphany time! To those who invest their time to read it
  • #36
  • Edited 1:46pm Sep 1, 2019 1:13pm | Edited 1:46pm
Quoting DiamondMiner
I've always felt that Fundamental Analysis is the direct product of Economic Factors + Statistical Factors. Example below is of How I hunt for a potential trade. There is a check list of filters to qualify. I never want to take just any trade, I only the trade that I hold an edge. I had done a scan for Gartley Patterns, in the chart below it's identified in Red in the center. Then I found another one directly after the previous one. Upon applying the Beck's Emblem tool(in green) at the X to A leg clearly shows the Gartley Pattern already formed...
Simply stunning!!! Ive been trying to learn about Gann and all his ideas but it never made sense as I can only learn when its experiential like this, rather than theoretical from a book. A couple of questions for you, if you dont mind.

i) Your price is different to the current live price NZDJPY is showing (67.05ish). Why is your chart different to mine?
ii) Focusing on the pattern itself, how would you play this NJPY trade? Go long (at the current price on your chart and sell when it reaches that top right corner?
iii) How do you scan these patterns? They are so difficult to spot unless you have an indicator which does it for you. DO you spend your day manually scanning charts looking for set ups?

I really hope this thread goes the distance. This mathematical approach, trading charts naked really has always been my thing. Thanks once again for your time and energy!
  • #37
  • Edited 4:42pm Sep 1, 2019 1:41pm | Edited 4:42pm
Quoting Viv108
{quote} Simply stunning!!! Ive been trying to learn about Gann and all his ideas but it never made sense as I can only learn when its experiential like this, rather than theoretical from a book. A couple of questions for you, if you dont mind. i) How would you play this NJPY trade? Go long now and sell when it reaches that top right corner? ii) Would you go short at the top right corner and let it run down? iii) How do you scan these patterns? They are so difficult to spot unless you have an indicator which does it for you! I really hope this thread...
Viv108 Sadly you missed the really good Gartley pattern weeks back, but I see no pattern that I would take today. Sorry. Yes the software helps me. I am not saying there isn't other ways to do it but am saying, no trade for me today on that pair. But you can see if you got into the trade at the right time you would have been successful. A scan of all the markets is done in less then one minute.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY daily.jpg Size: 109 KB
Harmonically Guided Evolution download
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Harmonic_Evolution.pdf   3.4 MB | 2,800 downloads
You NEVER will be the person you could be, without pressure & discipline
  • #38
  • Edited 5:26pm Sep 1, 2019 5:03pm | Edited 5:26pm
Entered 2 trades in Asian session - AUDNZD BUY, USDJPY BUY as the criteria matched for entries (Please see post #33 above; The blue vertical lines are in the area of entry and the 3 red vertical lines represent the potential reversal bars - and these are identified in advance) . Not much movement due to low volumes in Asian session (expected). Exited both trades for a small profit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_AUDNZD.jpg Size: 319 KB
  • #39
  • Sep 1, 2019 6:50pm Sep 1, 2019 6:50pm
Entered a sell in EURAUD as the criteria matched for entry. 16 pips profit. Earlier, missed SELL trades on GBPUSD and GBPCAD... both would have been winners...
Oh well...Need better focus to trade on M5

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.jpg Size: 283 KB
  • #40
  • Sep 1, 2019 7:18pm Sep 1, 2019 7:18pm
I see, but how to scale the chart so we can get the exact 1x1 time and price. because without that, you cant draw with precise time. only price.
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