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Yesterday or tomorrow

  • #21
  • Aug 31, 2019 7:11am Aug 31, 2019 7:11am
Quoting Rennaissance
You need enough information to make better trading decisions. One tick is no information. It's like trying to judge which season you are in by using the weather of today. You can say we are in winter. You can't say it's gonna snow tomorrow Because it snowed today. Prices are priced right most of the times but occasionally, mispricing occurs.
Agree with you; we need to increase the probability by adding enough parameters; there is nothing like guarantee in Forex!
  • #22
  • Aug 31, 2019 11:20am Aug 31, 2019 11:20am
It's a shame drock erased his posts .they were very good.

Prediction is a lost cause.we can argue for ever as to whether we are predicting or not when we enter a trade.

His point on calculated probability was of interest.thats what we need to focus on.

What I do know is the present value is always a calculation from that point and determines the parameters of futer range.
  • #23
  • Aug 31, 2019 12:02pm Aug 31, 2019 12:02pm
Forex less so. Stocks, no doubt about that. In fact I've made most of my money trading seasonal patterns in US stock market.
Can you predict exact price moves? No way. You can calculate probabilities that price will stay in certain range next 30-60 days.
That's how you make money via advanced options strategies, i.e. iron condors.
  • #24
  • Aug 31, 2019 7:41pm Aug 31, 2019 7:41pm
Quoting TradeMinim
{quote} True words. Prediction ultimately leads to chaos in the Forex Markets. Some traders say they can accurately predict this or that. I just laugh at these statements. Can they do it consistently? What happens after a wrong prediction? The chaos lies in the act of trying to predict, instead of trying to decipher what's happening currently. Trade safe

I think that "predict" its a misunderstood word in this case.. For a sucesfull trade you need to know the direction and the optimal place to enter; those 2 are NOT connected!! you can "predict" (or use whatever word you like) the direction accurately AND still place trades in shitty places (like selling low/buying high) with wrong targets, because you dont know how to do THIS STEP efficiently !!
  • #25
  • Last Post: Sep 1, 2019 2:37am Sep 1, 2019 2:37am
Quoting havo
{quote} I think that "predict" its a misunderstood word in this case.. For a sucesfull trade you need to know the direction and the optimal place to enter; those 2 are NOT connected!! you can "predict" (or use whatever word you like) the direction accurately AND still place trades in shitty places (like selling low/buying high) with wrong targets, because you dont know how to do THIS STEP efficiently !!
Well there are certainly a thousand methods to make money from the market. And everyone have their own beliefs and systems and I respect that.
I speak from experience from what works best for me, and try to guide those who needs advice and help from my perspective. Trade safe
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