Tug of war in market flows

I advise you to think about hands. I have tunnel syndrome and this is a little "pleasure."
Can I ask for a scan with your pound / dollar trades?

Thanks for the reminder

Pound / dollar trades below

Some threads here on FF with similar topis discussed:

I would recommend the viewers to read they if you are interested in this truth/myth/conspiracy that the market isn't always fair and free. I've also contributed to these threads.

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How does the FOREX price move and who decides on the prices
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12473113

Trading against the herd
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post12470846

Do you believe brokers hunt your stoploss
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12447219

Bank/hedge Fund Information
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post12362500

The way the money flows works with this approach

There are three factors:

1 - There will be a natural flow of more positions the longer we test this. That's why our position size will adjust to this according our calculated margin from our retail data source.

2 - Since it's calculated by pair, each pair can evolve around the 0 or 50/50 area (not buying, not selling). This can also affect the total position/margin size.

3 - Possible own acts of decrease or increase of risk-taking/leverage

So the position size will increase exponentially. But what however will change rapidly is on how close the 28 pairs are to their 0 / 50/50 level. If all pairs were around 0 level, our position size would be small and if all pairs were very one-sided traded by retails, our positions size would be way bigger.

This can be illustrated by our holdings bar chart. Normally I just attach a screenshot of holdings in percentage, but by showing it in total margins factor 2's flow can be possibly visually understood. I attached a bar chart also showing our margins. Notice how currencies close to 0 line would mean us not speculating in either long or short. On the other hand, notice how the JPY currencies big margin of around 2900 means we will be heavily speculating (buying) this.

This is kinda complex, but I hope you understand, otherwise feel free to ask.

Let me know what you guys think, especially how the approach should be about factor 3 above ^

Does anyone know if there is a GoFundMe similar page with technology/software/trading relevance?

What kind of margin are you talking about?

The margin is what we use to see and determine what can/gonna trade for. Margin is determined by equity, so for example, 10.000$ account would have a margin of 10.000$. We use our trade balance to adjust according to our data. Our margin can be seen on previous posts left to the bar chart.

In the cTrader is looks like this:

I've been somewhat absent at the screens today, but I still managed to update multiple times today.

It's been a big day for me today - I've set up an investor meeting.
Nothing huge but I'm really hungry and excited about the potential possibilities this can lead to since I'm seeking employment as full-time analyst/trader.
Wish me to luck my trader friends

Things are moving fast for me right now, I will see where this takes me, the plan is not clear.

I dont use ctrde, i use mt5,
are the lines your trades?

Yes.

Also, cTrader got the automatic margin function, mt5 doesn't have that default.
But I believe there should be an indicator/script on mql codebase for that.

That pic was a request from a viewer.
The graph itself is kinda irrelevant - mostly for visual understanding and chart addicts haha

Good luck with it Lekkim

[quote=Lekkim;12473209]I've been somewhat absent at the screens today, but I still managed to update multiple times today. It's been a big day for me today - I've set up an investor meeting. Nothing huge but I'm really hungry and excited about the potential possibilities this can lead to since I'm seeking employment as full-time analyst/trader...

Well, there is a lot of misinformation about beeing a pro trader here on FF, so good info is hard to find.
(as I cannot insert links yet) google this: Day Trading Salary – See How Much Top Traders Make a Year

Good and free article about the subject... and actual data.

You will need at least $5-10K verified real account traded for at least 6 month with consistent profit and no or little DD, before companies in this field would even consider hiring you...

It is consistent profit that is important, not high returns.

Keep up the good work :-)

I will continue to analyze and try to connect the dots in volume trading.

Many factors are still indecisive at the moment and all types of approaches need to be re-tested again. I need to be in complete control and have an overview of the best approach and way to trade it and it will require more testing on all variables. I still believe this is where the code to the market lays if any.

I'm gonna continue to grind and hopefully return soonest with better knowledge on the finale edge. I'll be back with more solid proof to back of theories and methods also. Thanks to everyone who contributed to this thread so far.

Best wishes,
Lekkim

Some of you might thought this was the end of the tug of war theory,
I started doubting also, but my dear viewers,
Finally, I seem to broke 'the code', my apologies for thinking earlier that it was fully understood, tested and optimized.

I've been tiptoeing around what ended to be the best method. I apparently had to test the same variables, again and again, to fully understand the flows completely. It's not just one-way traffic towards either retail volume 'baseline' or away from it

Lookaside earlier posts, it will cause a lot of confusion. I will be back later with more details about new information and what's to come.

A great difficulty/challenge and something that been leading me astray a lot, been being able to constantly having the complete overview of everything that's going on, while simultaneously updating some of the data manually.

Including putting every dot together when both looking at calculations and visual graphs. Since some of the data/showings are historical and something is only at glimpse/ like a snapshot. So since it's not fully automated it's a lot to wrap one's head around.

Also when not sure what's best (testing and optimizing data endlessly) and has to test the same two variables (price and volume) together in more than 15 different ways. Each approach taking a lot of manhours in data calculation, backtest, forward test and analysis.

Turned out there was a rather innocent mistake in the calculation of the original tug of war approach (like at the beginning of this thread where you see visual red(price line) and green(volume line))

Precision is so important when looking at price/volume divergence.
I'm gonna be straight forward explaining exactly what went wrong.

Back when I was approaching after the most attractive pair - problem being I didn't calculate the 28 pairs into each of the 8 currencies.

That lead to, only in the spreadsheet was correctly calculated, but not in mql visual indicator. That gave inaccurate prediction and mismatch between numbers and graphs.
For example, there are 7 different pairs of each 1 currency. So 7 AUD pairs. Retail clients choosing of pair varies a lot, so the 50% read I would get on each AUD pair, was not accurate of the total volume of the AUD currency and the pair's counterpart.

I was let so much astray by this, including some visual glitches and overlay problems.
Isn't it funny how a simple factor like that lead to many months of going backward looking at either towards or away retail volume (looking in hindsight)

What happened?
Where does self-digging come from?

Hey erex

Could you elaborate, please?
Thanks