Spoof's Trading Made Simple(r) Journal

Hi Spoof:

After that bad week.....I haven't been doing much trading for the past couple of weeks. I often do this in order not to "revenge trade".

'Having a go at yours:-

1st Trade.
AUDCAD. Late entry but good potential (currently under water)


2nd Trade
GBPJPY. Am I alone on this train?.


3rd Trade
USDSGD. Sink or swim?


Let's see how they ride.

Trade well.

I have a sell stop at the last SAR point to catch a move going short on the AUDCAD if it comes along. Currently in the GBPJPY with you. I don't trade the other pair.

Cheers.

GOLD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Trade well.

This moving average trading method is great when market is consolidating and for continuation trade. But lag behind when a new trend is forming. I will prefer it for a continuation trade.

Hi there Victor...I think The Spoof has spoken to this in his update Video (the System helps to avoid sideways markets/consolidation and is meant for Trending Markets, but only after the trend has been established).

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12459851

Cheers.

We are still on the same page, i have observed it.

@thespoof Maan, you should go back and analyse what went wrong i don't believe it was just because of ranging markets.. you were doing good and now not so good.

Yup...hit a bad patch here for sure. I am taking a bit of time off the forum since I just moved across the country yesterday and I need to get my new life and daily routines sorted out.

Anyone trading the 4 hour charts with success? Daily charts are sluggishly moving along as is to be expected. I am going to be MIA for a while since I just moved to a new part of Mexico and it is going to take a few days to get settled in.

No Boss, loss after loss for me

Not at the moment will go back to them next month, the last 2 weeks using day TF has not been great fewer trades mostly stopped out with spikes. Note to myself do not trade last 2 weeks in August and December.

No, but I'm thinking that the two Systems work well together.
Yours (D1) to identify the Trendig Pairs to trade and RH's to trade the selected pairs @ H4.
Entered NZDJPY at close of last H4 Candle, using both methods.
Will post chart in the other forum.

Let's see how she rolls.

Cheers.

Has anyone done backtesting for H4 TF with original rules ? I have noticed that each pair has its own cycles in market for particular month and as i understand August is the worst month when price pretty much spikes all the time and goes sideways, due to lot of vacation/holiday time. I am thinking of creating backtest statistics with all pairs which i trade and compare which months are the best for this particular strategy, of course i am aware that past results do not guarantee future results, however if we see pattern which repeats it self every year or particular month we should consider it as a big sign.

Has anyone done manual spread sheet backtesting ? Maybe someone can recommend the most constructive way of doing it, with maybe template or examples ?

Thank you !

Unfortunately, those things tend to be predictable. I by those things, I mean people jumping on board a new system, and trading it with real money.
I myself have been following closely RH’s method and thread, on trading it every day for that past month and a half or so (pretty much the same time as TheSpoof started). I opened a demo account specifically to track and monitor my performance following it. I love trading it, it started out nicely, but now things have been going downhill. And that’s what I want to emphasize here:

There are a few “red flags” that readers of this journal should have seen. For one, someone who trades “for a living”, but decides to trade live a new method that has been published for only a few months (RH started his thread end of May, and TheSpoof started posting in July)… That is wrong on so many levels, but to point the obvious: a full time trader trades his system that has been proven, and doesn’t jump on board another method that came out of the blue. Sure, one can test / demo because trying out new stuff is always nice, but that’s something different.

Here, it’s like “I’ve been trying out this new method for the last couple of weeks, I’m doing fine with it, I’m going to trade it live and make a journal”… Dude, RH has been doing it for 20+ years, maybe, just maybe, a few weeks / months is not enough to trade it live and even less make a journal to give advice to newbies.
And the inevitable comes next (other red flag): The OP starts tweaking the rules (because of losing streak), modifying indicators, ditching this, adding that (in less than a couple of months)… All at the same time continuing to give trading advice… The end result is that the current rules have nothing to do with how it started. Now again, to point the obvious: It’s all well and fine to try and tweak a method to your liking, but you do it AT THE RESEARCH PHASE, using demo, and giving it time to see how it pans out. Not buy throwing money at it thinking “oh I got this”.

The reason I point this out, is that I see too many people coming here & asking questions, where imo it would be much more reasonable to ask the creator of the system that has been trading 20 years. I perfectly understand the human nature that drives someone to persuade himself that, after a nice win streak, he has finally “figured it out”, especially after a few years of constant struggle. But personally I saw it coming from the beginning, and by occasionally seeing the changes was thinking “this is not going to end good”. Well there you have it, so please people always be aware of who you follow, and in general it’s better to stick with the one that has years of market experience and profitability.

Oh boy, I knew one of you would show up. As I showed in several videos, RH's system and indicators are not magic nor do they give any wondrous predictions as to how far a move will go after a signal is given and I've shown several methods in videos that duplicate or out perform the original methods - more than one way to skin a cat my friend. Price goes up and price goes down - it's not rocket science. August was a shit, choppy sideways month (probably should not have traded it like I have said several times) and trend following systems tend to fail in ranging markets.

I explained why I switched over to RH's methods a few times so if you care not to read or watch my videos then I'm not going to explain it again. I will say that I made the switch because the methods were fundamentally in line with what I was already doing but they appeared to be just a little more objective and clear. I am not some newbie trader that jumps from system to system as I have learned that is a recipe for failure. I made a calculated decision based on my experience and observations to switch my entry methods. I have also clearly stated that this is my ongoing journey and that it is a work in progress. I have never hid that fact. Man, it would be nice if people actually READ things before they go shooting their mouths off. Shit, if you read the beginning of RH's thread he states 10+ ways to trade his ideas and encourages people to do just that. Mix and match, use an indy or don't use one. READ and COMPREHEND! And you come here and chastise me for doing just that As far as I know...RH has not proven his profitability and others have complained that he only seems to show winning trades. That's his prerogative - I don't care. Any professional trader will tell you that losing months happen and I have said it several times. It is not the end of the world to have a bad month and it is to be expected. I have also never demo traded and will never demo trade. You are free to fake your trading but I will take my lessons from a live market where money is real and emotions are real.

Look, good trading is directly related to good trading conditions. There is no indicator or system in the world that will consistently predict how long a potential move may or may not go after a trade signal is given. We are at the mercy of the market and the market will hand out what the market will hand out - period. August proved to be a crappy month so we move on and keep trading. The original rules are still valid, as I have said and showed in videos, I ultimately added a trend filter into the mix to weed out the ranging periods that are responsible for many of the losses traders have suffered and showed how the original indicators were not really required. The vast majority of my trade signals match exactly the original ones. I also trade with tight stops and have said I trade with tight stops and acknowledged the fact that I will get taken out often because of it.

I don't appreciate you coming onto my journal and shooting your mouth off at me like I am some rank amateur pulling things out of my ass. I have put out numerous videos clearly backing up my claims and observations. Please, go ahead and show me where I am wrong in my observations. Go ahead and show me where the original methodologies are so radically different and superior to what have added or removed. Go ahead and show me how this system would have been profitable in this ranging month. As far as I am aware lots of people got chopped to death. Dude, at the end of the day this is simply a trend following method designed to catch potential early trend changes or to get on board trends that are already in progress. If those trends don't materialize after a signal is given then we take losses. A signal is no guarantee that the move will deliver any profit especially with wider stops. It ain't magic, it ain't predictive and it has its shortcomings, like all systems, as I've shown several times. Lots and lots of ways to get on board a favourable market. August was not a favourable market and now I am experiencing a draw down. They DO happen. Big deal. What you are failing to understand is how this draw down will be dealt with and THAT is the whole point going forward.

I might even go back to the price action trading that I used to trade. It is not as simple as these methods, but it offers more confluence behind the trades, takes more patience and potentially gives more trade opportunities than what is currently being traded. It is also a lot more difficult to share the methods with others unfortunately. If I do make the switch back it will be a personal decision based on how I want to trade. However, at the end of the day the underlying premise is the same and that is attempting to trade with the trend but I have an objective way to determine the trend which was absent from RH's methods. Funny thing, most of my entry signals also happen to match the TMMS ones. Go figure

"But personally I saw it coming from the beginning, and by occasionally seeing the changes was thinking “this is not going to end good”. " Who said anything has ended? Shit, if you think a bad month is a reason to give up and pack it in then you have completely missed the point of my journal

I agree with you totally I believe both systems you have shared will be profitable in the coming months

Stopped out on Gold for a small loss, as I was trailing my Stop 2 Bars back.

Cheers.

Got out of these three trades more of less at break-Even +

AUDCAD has been rather lazy;
GBPJPY moved over 100 pips and retraced; I closed for a small profit as I didn't like the price action.
USDSCG moved very little so I closed at BE. Traded this pair as spread is very low but very little liquidity.

Nothing wrong with this approach Spoof. Just requires much more patience and certainly a large account. Setups will be fewer, as you have mentioned in your video and one may have to hold -open for a much longer time.

The significant benefit, as I see it, is the opportunity to use these MVAs to stay clear of choppy markets while trading the RH Method, and this I will be doing.

Trade well.

I'm still hanging onto this trade on the dailies stop trailed via the SAR. It will likely be a loss as price heads down to re-test the most recent swing area around 1492.43 We can get long again there if we get a signal off that area since the bias is clearly long.