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Intraday Trading the US Index Futures

  • #141
  • Aug 23, 2019 1:01pm Aug 23, 2019 1:01pm
Journal Entry:

One [SIM] trade: 1 win. ** Trade analyzed in ES, taken in MES.**

Trade:

I did not take the premarket trade that I saw set up in real-time. I correctly identified that the trend was Down and saw SUPPLY enter the market at HalfBack (HB) of Yesterday's High Volume Zone H1 (YHVZ H1). Price moved to the first target, Yesterday's High Volume Zone H1 (YHVZ H1 (L)). It felt good to see that, and I really need it. The last few days have been brutal: -1100.00 on Tuesday, -1500.00 on Wednesday and -1000.00 on Thursday. DO NOT REVENGE TRADE. As the saying goes, "When you seek out revenge, dig two graves." However when dealing with the Market, there's only one grave, and it's always yours.

I've been watching a lot of Wyckoff videos lately, and now understand the edge in taking Springs (Tests) on the right-hand side with Strength (DEMAND) on the left. Additionally, Wyckoff talked about the power of HalfBack (HB). Volume Zone Analysis (VZA) places emphasis on HB as well. Thank You Pres78.

I don't want to bog this thread down with analysis that is beyond the scope of what is being discussed here, but it suffices to say I took a Test (Spring) that was on/above HB for Today's High Volume Zone (THVZ) and HB for Yesterday's High Volume Zone H1. The first target was HB for Yesterday's High Volume Zone H4 (YHVZ H4). The second target was HB for Yesterday's High Volume Zone Trading Chart (YHVZ TC). The third target was Yesterday's High Volume Zone Trading Chart (High) (YHVZ TC (H)).

I was expecting price to move higher and had moved my stop up well to protect some profits. The Up Thrust at YHVZ TC (H) was the start of some serious selling...........

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VZA 1.png Size: 178 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #142
  • Aug 23, 2019 4:50pm Aug 23, 2019 4:50pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Journal Entry: One [SIM] trade: 1 win. ** Trade analyzed in ES, taken in MES.** Trade: I did not take the premarket trade that I saw set up in real-time. I correctly identified that the trend was Down and saw SUPPLY enter the market at HalfBack (HB) of Yesterday's High Volume Zone H1 (YHVZ H1). Price moved to the first target, Yesterday's High Volume Zone H1 (YHVZ H1 (L)). It felt good to see that, and I really need it. The last few days have been brutal: -1100.00 on Tuesday, -1500.00 on Wednesday and -1000.00 on Thursday. DO NOT REVENGE TRADE....
Please bog it down! Its great reading - I studied Wyckoff for a long, long time, but couldn't create enough right edge of the screen actionable ideas for myself to actually enter trades, which is my own problem, not the teachings. At one point I wrote a "spring" indicator, but it worked terribly. I also extensively studied VSA, but again couldn't make it work for me at the right edge of the screen. Brooks has been different for some reason and seems to be clicking somewhat, but it could be just the sequence of events (if I had started with Brooks, then moved onto the others...).
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #143
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:52am Aug 26, 2019 9:52am
Missed an important entry, but got two good ones. The second one was going to target the top of the opening range, but then pulled back way too far so exited at a projection of the 1st swing. Might still go up, but travelling today so short day for me.

oio = Outside Inside Outside reversal.
bo = breakout
2lpb = 2 leg pullback
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Min) 8_26_2019.jpg Size: 86 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #144
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:58am Aug 26, 2019 9:58am
Quoting jmflukeiii
Missed an important entry, but got two good ones. The second one was going to target the top of the opening range, but then pulled back way too far so exited at a projection of the 1st swing. Might still go up, but travelling today so short day for me. oio = Outside Inside Outside reversal. bo = breakout 2lpb = 2 leg pullback {image}
Looks like the trade you "missed" was the one I took. See next post.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #145
  • Aug 26, 2019 10:53am Aug 26, 2019 10:53am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Looks like the trade you "missed" was the one I took. See next post.
At least someone got it!
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #146
  • Aug 26, 2019 10:58am Aug 26, 2019 10:58am
Journal Entry:

2 [SIM] Trades: 1 Win, 1 BE. *** Trades analyzed in the ES and taken in the MES***

Overall theme: Good analysis and poor trade management still equals bad trading.

Trade One:

As usual, I spent the weekend watching videos and studying charts. I entered the day confident that I had grasped somethings over the weekend, while certain that there were many more things still to be learned.

During the premarket, I saw a wide spread UP bar on Ultra High Volume that closed in the middle of its range. This is SUPPLY. Earlier in the premarket, there was a wide spread DOWN bar that created the Current High Volume Zone (THVZ)(not shown).

I went Short after the Upthrust like interval which was located at HB of the Current High Volume Zone (THVZ). My first profit target was THVZ (L) and the second target was YHVZ H4 (L).

The Market meandered a bit and then a wide spread UP bar on ultra high volume appeared at the open. This bar closed in the middle of its range thus indicating there was SUPPLY. However, the next bar did not confirm. I got scared on the next interval which made a higher high before making a lower low and closing lower. I exited at the high for a scratch trade. It was the EvR where I first started to feel uneasy about being short.

Trade Two:

I did not allow myself to be deterred or get "gun-shy". Once the Market fell below THVZ (L), confirming all the weakness I had been seeing, I started looking for the "edge trade".

Price moved back towards the THVZ (L) but did not touch it. I would have liked a touch, but the EvR that appeared was obvious. The move back to the THVZ (L) is the first break and Gary Fullett harps on the fact that the first break tends to fail. Accordingly, the EvR looked like "stopping action" a couple of tics away from where I would want to see it, so I entered the trade. Technically a touch is not needed, so I'm okay with entering the trade. This is a VSA trigger number - Sharp Shooter entry where a touch is not needed.

The initial profit target was YHVZ H4 (L). As price moved DOWN, I took a couple of random profit targets. I wanted to assure this trade was profitable, but my plan is not to exit positions "willy-nilly". PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN. I did take a partial at YHVZ (L) and leave myself with one lot to take a runner.

After the first touch of the Zone, there was a nice UP Thrust bar, but the next interval was an EvR (stopping action) and I exited the final lot on the open of the next bar.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #147
  • Aug 26, 2019 11:18am Aug 26, 2019 11:18am
Quoting HiddenGap
During the premarket, I saw a wide spread UP bar on Ultra High Volume that closed in the middle of its range. This is SUPPLY.
Nice trade, that SOW bar is screaming weakness especially with the up thrust at the high.
  • #148
  • Aug 26, 2019 9:40pm Aug 26, 2019 9:40pm
Would like to contribute to this thread. I revived my TD Ameritrade account and will be focusing my trading more on futures (YM, ES, GC, etc.) since the active trading hours are during NY session and more in line with my active trading hours. I'm not live yet but should be after Labor Day holiday. The ThinkorSwim platform is not too friendly but getting to know it again so any charts you see right now are sim.

I employ the much misunderstood median line tool also erroneously called Andrew's Pitchfork for much of my trading but price action is the core of my trading. I understand we're not pushing each other's methods so I'll minimize the banter about how I trade.
This is YM 512 tick chart.
Price bounced off the center median line and rallied. A line of buyers (gray rectangle) formed and got washed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Freedom is not free
  • #149
  • Aug 27, 2019 8:24am Aug 27, 2019 8:24am
Quoting Abe16
Would like to contribute to this thread. I revived my TD Ameritrade account and will be focusing my trading more on futures (YM, ES, GC, etc.) since the active trading hours are during NY session and more in line with my active trading hours. I'm not live yet but should be after Labor Day holiday. The ThinkorSwim platform is not too friendly but getting to know it again so any charts you see right now are sim. I employ the much misunderstood median line tool also erroneously called Andrew's Pitchfork for much of my trading but price action is the...
Hey thanks for posting - talking about your method is certainly fine. I have no experience with using such a tool so would be certainly interested to see more of how you use it -
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #150
  • Aug 27, 2019 8:37am Aug 27, 2019 8:37am
Same here. I'd be interested in seeing how you use that tool, and why you use tick charts over standard time-based charts. I'm guessings its to filter out noise and just focus on PA?
  • #151
  • Aug 27, 2019 11:01am Aug 27, 2019 11:01am
Mediocre day with a reasonable first entry that turned to a loss. Then was tricked out of a good trade to have to enter at worse price later. Traded the plan and that's what matters. Would like more time with this bottom as it could turn and provide a great long entry to be held back up to the open, but have to leave the desk.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MES 09-19 (5 Min) 8_27_2019.jpg Size: 73 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #152
  • Aug 27, 2019 11:26am Aug 27, 2019 11:26am
Quoting jmflukeiii
Mediocre day with a reasonable first entry that turned to a loss. Then was tricked out of a good trade to have to enter at worse price later. Traded the plan and that's what matters. Would like more time with this bottom as it could turn and provide a great long entry to be held back up to the open, but have to leave the desk. {image}
Very nice and somewhat familiar.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #153
  • Aug 27, 2019 12:19pm Aug 27, 2019 12:19pm
Journal Entry:

Two[SIM] Trades: 1 Win, 1 Loss.

Trade One: -45.00 (approximately)

When I opened the charts this morning the Market was in an Uptrend. Catching tops and bottoms feels great, but I want to try and respect the trend more.

Price created a new HVZ at the open. A few bars later, I saw a 2BR. This 2 Bar Reversal (2BR) closed above HB of the Zone, but it also closed above THVZ (H). Additionally, it was above Rolling HalfBack (HBr). Before I could even start to dream of what color "Vette" to buy with my trading profits, a Trap Up Move (TUM) appeared and took me out for a small loss.

Trade Two: +138.75 (approximate) Net: +93.75

The Smart Money is not the Smart Money because they never lose, they're the Smart Money because they lose better. Lately, even a small loss has played a psychological toll on me. But not today. I was undeterred by the loss and continued to feel good and stayed focused. I started to look for a short, however, I did not just get short out of revenge. I exhibited patience and waited for a valid short signal.

The Market gave me a "double whammy" and I had to take it. A nice 2BR appeared that touched and closed below both HBr and THVZ (L). There was a No Demand (ND) just prior to the 2BR, and I would have taken it, but price did not trade lower than its low.

My initial profit target was HB (YHVZ M3(MP)).My second profit target was HB (YHVZ H4 (MP)).

Price moved against me, but I felt fine. I felt comfortable being in the Market.

Gary Fullett talks about the edge in taking Springs in Uptrends and UpThrusts in Downtrends. There were 2 (actually 3) nice ones. Two were Up Thrusts in the form of ND and the Pres2BR is like an UpThrust over 2 bars.

I did get a bit anxious and take a partial profit early. I took one off at YHVZ M3 (H).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VZA 5.png Size: 185 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #154
  • Aug 27, 2019 12:58pm Aug 27, 2019 12:58pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
Need to get my new account set back up with the correct broker. TDs commission on the micro doesn't make sense.. (emphasis added)
Infinity's commissions are pretty high too. What do you think of Ninja? Are the numbers listed on the website accurate, or are there additional (hidden) fees?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #155
  • Aug 27, 2019 5:29pm Aug 27, 2019 5:29pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Infinity's commissions are pretty high too. What do you think of Ninja? Are the numbers listed on the website accurate, or are there additional (hidden) fees?
Since I purchased Ninjatrader a long time ago (right before I was going to purchase my lamborghini and vacation mansion with my soon-to-be-realized-massive-trading profits that so un-mysteriously never materialized), I get to trade in their lowest commission tier, which is $0.82 Round Turn per contract, confirmed through my daily statements, on all micros. I believe this is what they publish on that website.

I very much like the platform. As for replicating the VSA setup, there is a Better Volume indicator which I think attempts to mimic the VSA volume indicator. Ninjatrader 8 now has HLC bars whereas 7 only had OHLC.

I think AMP is slightly cheaper, but not sure what platforms you can use to obtain those costs. Ninjatrader used to be one, but since they opened up their IB, they are no longer an option through AMP.
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #156
  • Aug 27, 2019 8:23pm Aug 27, 2019 8:23pm
Quoting lolpie
Same here. I'd be interested in seeing how you use that tool, and why you use tick charts over standard time-based charts. I'm guessings its to filter out noise and just focus on PA?
Tick charts filter out time. If you have a 512 tick chart then each bar will have 512 ticks. Or a new bar does not form until 512 ticks. I guess it's just a matter of preference. I use tick charts for futures and time based charts for forex. Go figure.
Freedom is not free
  • #157
  • Aug 27, 2019 8:24pm Aug 27, 2019 8:24pm
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Hey thanks for posting - talking about your method is certainly fine. I have no experience with using such a tool so would be certainly interested to see more of how you use it -
Thanks.
Freedom is not free
  • #158
  • Aug 27, 2019 8:56pm Aug 27, 2019 8:56pm
In full disclosure the following is in hindsight:
1. Essentially I trade swings but I choose specific swings and define them strictly.
2. The median line tool quite simply measures A to B and projects C to D. Median lines project. The lines in and of themselves do not signal trades as many wrongly assume.
3. In this case price reached D (C to D equal to A to B). Once here I look at price action for potential trade. Price action is really the core of my trading.
4. Here price revealed its intention with the WRB outside bar and Gap that made a new relative low then retraced and retested the gap where I would not have hesitated to sell.

I'm very patient taking no more than one or two trades per day with very good setups such as the one shown. I also won't take a trade unless R:R is 3:1.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Freedom is not free
  • #159
  • Aug 28, 2019 9:57am Aug 28, 2019 9:57am
No trading in ES today, but traded YM instead utilizing a simple method I've been monitoring in SIM and feel is ready. +214 total. Very simply:

  1. Trade the first pullback after a trendline break or first LH or HL after a climactic bar.
  2. Redraw the trendline if subsequent pullbacks lead to a new high/low.
  3. If after the trendline breaks and price retests the last high/low and reverses, its acceptable to take a reversal trade.
  4. Hold until a prior swing low/high is broken or significant S/R is hit.
  5. If you take two entries in a row that result in nothing, you're in a range and so either take reversals from the outsides, or breakout pullbacks if the range breaks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MYM 09-19 (1 Min) 8_28_2019.jpg Size: 100 KB
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #160
  • Aug 28, 2019 10:16am Aug 28, 2019 10:16am
Quoting jmflukeiii
No trading in ES today, but traded YM instead utilizing a simple method I've been monitoring in SIM and feel is ready. +214 total. Very simply: Trade the first pullback after a trendline break or first LH or HL after a climactic bar. Redraw the trendline if subsequent pullbacks lead to a new high/low. If after the trendline breaks and price retests the last high/low and reverses, its acceptable to take a reversal trade. Hold until a prior swing low/high is broken or significant S/R is hit. If you take two entries in a row that result in nothing,...
Very nice.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
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