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Tug of war in market flows

  • #201
  • Aug 26, 2019 1:09pm Aug 26, 2019 1:09pm
Quoting sponge
{quote} Hi Lekkim, Great work but just to be clear you are short above the zero line and long below? What are your thoughts on WTI oil ?
Thanks man!

No the opposite, the graph is reversed of retail volume.
So over = buying - Under = selling.

I do not immediately have an opinion on oil.
I'm focusing on currencies, but the same approach could be used in oil markets also if liquidity/volume data is big enough to be considered trustworthy/an overview of the herd. Actually same goes for all markets, also precious metals and stock indices.
  • #202
  • Aug 26, 2019 1:32pm Aug 26, 2019 1:32pm
Quoting Lekkim
{quote} Thanks man! No the opposite, the graph is reversed of retail volume. So over = buying - Under = selling. I do not immediately have an opinion on oil. I'm focusing on currencies, but the same approach could be used in oil markets also if liquidity/volume data is big enough to be considered trustworthy/an overview of the herd. Actually same goes for all markets, also precious metals and stock indices.
Thanks Lekkim, Trust me to get it the wrong way round.

So we would expect a rise in erujpy/usdjpy since jpy is indicated as short?

You results are incredible Lekkim
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #203
  • Aug 26, 2019 1:35pm Aug 26, 2019 1:35pm
Quoting sponge
{quote} Thanks Lekkim, Trust me to get it the wrong way round. So we would expect a rise in erujpy/usdjpy since jpy is indicated as short? You results are incredible Lekkim
Hehe, it's natural since I've throughout this thread been using both ways and many types and colors in the bar charts.

I Appreciate it, friend
  • #204
  • Aug 26, 2019 1:39pm Aug 26, 2019 1:39pm
Yes, if we believe that retail will lose.

Attached shows the demo's positions - the holdings are exactly opposite of retail volume since start Aug 19.
Attached Image
  • #205
  • Aug 26, 2019 1:43pm Aug 26, 2019 1:43pm
As shown by the profit factor of 3.00, retail herd been losing hardcore these past 7 days.

As mentioned earlier, it's above expectations it can't continue being as great as currently with this pace.
The excitement level is high, we'll see.
  • #206
  • Aug 26, 2019 2:07pm Aug 26, 2019 2:07pm
My Broker.... clients open positions

GBPJPY 72% LONG
USDJPY 68% LONG
EURJPY 67% LONG
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #207
  • Aug 26, 2019 2:11pm Aug 26, 2019 2:11pm
Quoting sponge
My Broker.... clients open positions GBPJPY 72% LONG USDJPY 68% LONG EURJPY 67% LONG

Ok, is it on the same timeframe as ours?

Sentiment on brokers sites often only provides total percentage sentiment, not detailed, new positions, live time, etc.
Do you know the timelines of those sentiments? Our demo was started without historical data and started calculating from Aug 19 - now.
  • #208
  • Aug 26, 2019 2:21pm Aug 26, 2019 2:21pm
It works better the faster I update it.

I've been updating every 30m-2h these last many days, except when I need to sleep lol

There should be a possibility for automatization of this trading method. I might look into that later.
But so far so good and each 28 pair full update take me around 5 minutes in total, so it's not a problem to keep up with the updating speed.
  • #209
  • Aug 26, 2019 2:29pm Aug 26, 2019 2:29pm
Taken from daily charts.

No idea where it was on the 19th.

Volume...I don't know where your volume comes from, maybe retail clients ain't so daft ha.

Forex markets daily volume 5 trillion I don't think the retail clients volume would even register so your volume comes from the big boys?

Taking nothing away your analysis is first class.
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #210
  • Aug 26, 2019 2:41pm Aug 26, 2019 2:41pm
Quoting sponge
Taken from daily charts. No idea where it was on the 19th. Volume...I don't know where your volume comes from, maybe retail clients ain't so daft ha. Forex markets daily volume 5 trillion I don't think the retail clients volume would even register so your volume comes from the big boys? Taking nothing away your analysis is first class.
Ok, then it is probably a daily/with data for a couple of years of clients sentiment.

Volume is indeed fascinating, mysteries and a challenge.

Well, I understand your point and it's valid if you believe there aren't parties targeting, speculating and even manipulating against the unknowing 'amateurs'. Retail volume, in my eyes, is seen as milking cows for many parties. And yes I would agree, that having data from your own broker probably would be insufficient, however, it might still provide somewhat of an overview.

All I can say is that my source is better and more credible than above. ^

Many thanks - It actually hasn't even been a focus to make easily understandable analysis and evaluating.
But happy you like what you see so far.
  • #211
  • Aug 27, 2019 10:05am Aug 27, 2019 10:05am
Aug 27 17:00 status:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2708.PNG Size: 51 KB
  • #212
  • Aug 27, 2019 10:10am Aug 27, 2019 10:10am
2.464 trades
172 lots traded

157% equity growth
34.415 pips profit
2,14 profit factor
  • #213
  • Aug 27, 2019 10:12am Aug 27, 2019 10:12am
What a rollercoaster ride it's been today.
Glad we managed through it.

Standing by for new take-off towards new highs (hopefully)
  • #214
  • Aug 27, 2019 10:21am Aug 27, 2019 10:21am
Current holdings and market environment/situation matrix (since Aug 19)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2708marketmatrix.PNG Size: 34 KB
Attached Image
  • #215
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:14pm Aug 27, 2019 2:14pm
Another trading day draws towards the end,

We didn't manage to make it 8 out of 8 in profitable days.
Fortunately our loss today is small - Equity at 23.500 (highest it's been 26.400)

The account currently at:
2.614 trades
187 lots traded

136% equity growth
33.934 pips profit
1,95 profit factor
  • #216
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:33pm Aug 27, 2019 2:33pm
Nice approach.. a lot of work lies behind your strategy, I like that. Thank you for opening this thread Lekkim.

Is it correctly assumed that the first trade explorer eventually lost money because the sentiment data was up to 24 hours old?
  • #217
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:40pm Aug 27, 2019 2:40pm
Quoting Lekkim
Another trading day draws towards the end, We didn't manage to make it 8 out of 8 in profitable days. Fortunately our loss today is small - Equity at 23.500 (highest it's been 26.400) The account currently at: 2.614 trades 187 lots traded 136% equity growth 33.934 pips profit 1,95 profit factor

Hello Lekkim, You have managed to do extremely well. I can't wait to see how this goes in September when everyone is back. I am sure it is going to be great.
  • #218
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:49pm Aug 27, 2019 2:49pm
Quoting micah119
{quote} Hello Lekkim, You have managed to do extremely well. I can't wait to see how this goes in September when everyone is back. I am sure it is going to be great.
Hello micah119

Thank you for your nice words, it motivates me
Same here,
Hope and optimism on a high level from my point of view, but at the same time is a high-pressure situation and I hope not to let myself or anyone else down.
  • #219
  • Aug 27, 2019 2:56pm Aug 27, 2019 2:56pm
Quoting Bundy
Nice approach.. a lot of work lies behind your strategy, I like that. Thank you for opening this thread Lekkim. Is it correctly assumed that the first trade explorer eventually lost money because the sentiment data was up to 24 hours old?
Hello Bundy my fellow Dane

Tusind tak! (Many thanks in danish)

I'm glad you notice the effort that's been going into this project. It's been my main interest in life for many years and more intense focus on volume for the last 3-4 years. You're welcome

Do you refer to the first counter retail demo test or my excel spreadsheet simulation?
  • #220
  • Aug 27, 2019 3:17pm Aug 27, 2019 3:17pm
Hello Lekkim

Selv tak! :-) (you are welcome in danish)

I refer to the first counter retail demo test... Thank you.
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