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Yesterday or tomorrow

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 21, 2019 3:35pm Aug 21, 2019 3:35pm
I would like to debate the relationship of past and futer price.

Is the next tick predetermined.

Does the present tick forecast the forward event.

If not explain why price is factored in , with such efficiency.
  • #2
  • Aug 22, 2019 11:43am Aug 22, 2019 11:43am
You will never know, easy as that. Because it's the market and we can never predict the perceived value of an asset
of a market in a future timeline.

Trying to predict is suicide. Period.
Price is factored in according to Efficient Market Hypothesis. But that leaves plenty of room to debate.
  • #3
  • Aug 22, 2019 6:30pm Aug 22, 2019 6:30pm
Quoting TradeMinim
You will never know, easy as that. Because it's the market and we can never predict the perceived value of an asset of a market in a future timeline. Trying to predict is suicide. Period. Price is factored in according to Efficient Market Hypothesis. But that leaves plenty of room to debate.

False..

Price can be forecasted with a huge degree of accuracy in certain conditions; of course it includes the inmediate past/present price and the relationship between them in that specific moment

It can be done, its very specific and it present itself over and over again..
  • #4
  • Aug 22, 2019 9:42pm Aug 22, 2019 9:42pm
Quoting havo
{quote} False.. Price can be forecasted with a huge degree of accuracy in certain conditions; of course it includes the inmediate past/present price and the relationship between them in that specific moment It can be done, its very specific and it present itself over and over again..
Can be forecasted, but never predicted.
Probable levels of accuracy in forecasting, but never certain.
  • #5
  • Aug 23, 2019 7:52am Aug 23, 2019 7:52am
Quoting TradeMinim
{quote} Can be forecasted, but never predicted. Probable levels of accuracy in forecasting, but never certain.

Actually in certain conditions can be predicted, asuming that your definition of predicted = 100% certainty.. Rest of the time you can trade with a little less than 100% easily, and those conditions presents more often of course
  • #6
  • Aug 23, 2019 10:43am Aug 23, 2019 10:43am
Thanks for the replies

Collectively,the participants factor in events and news to a high degree of accuracy. I was interested in the work of Martin Armstrong who was uncanny at predicting/forecasting changing world events which would see bottoms and tops in the commodities markets.albeit the FBI eventually locked him up.but his work on longer term cycles was very interesting.

I certainly believe past and present price can be beneficial to forecast levels within the currency market were price will find fair value .

In many circumstances the factoring in of futer value most often pre emps news and events yet to unfold
  • #7
  • Aug 23, 2019 11:07am Aug 23, 2019 11:07am
If I'm able , by using present data in time horizons,ie 1 hour. 4 hour. daily ect using averages within each horizon then making some simple calculations to establish areas were price will converge across these horizons then these futer levels generally in time are fair value and price tends to range within them.

Here is an example of my present working cable chart for this weeks cable calculated last week.now notice the converged level and the extremes.these levels were calculated before the price displayed.
  • #8
  • Aug 23, 2019 11:08am Aug 23, 2019 11:08am
Chart

So I would suggest some maybe wrong but collectively we are always right
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9
  • Aug 23, 2019 11:48am Aug 23, 2019 11:48am
Quoting diceman555
If I'm able , by using present data in time horizons,ie 1 hour. 4 hour. daily ect using averages within each horizon then making some simple calculations to establish areas were price will converge across these horizons then these futer levels generally in time are fair value and price tends to range within them. Here is an example of my present working cable chart for this weeks cable calculated last week.now notice the converged level and the extremes.these levels were calculated before the price displayed.
Interesting diceman,

How do you calculate those averages? how many bars?
  • #10
  • Aug 23, 2019 2:26pm Aug 23, 2019 2:26pm
Quoting diceman555
I would like to debate the relationship of past and futer price. Is the next tick predetermined. Does the present tick forecast the forward event. If not explain why price is factored in , with such efficiency.
Forex is all about probabilities; there is nothing like obvious in Forex! So; we can predict the price based on our analysis only!
  • #11
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:05pm Aug 30, 2019 3:05pm
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} Interesting diceman, How do you calculate those averages? how many bars?
Hi David.
The average prices are calculated from the present value inclusive of the extremes.
If you calculate the lower time frames they will always converge with the higher.
Whilst price remains within these boundaries you will always trade within the average price and your probability of loss decreases significantly.

The only time you really need to readjust those zones is when they are no longer in play.

Unless you have had large amounts of capital to convert either through your work or personal business you will not quite understand what I'm saying.the parameters within those averages hold for extended periods of time.only significant new information will change those parameters.

All the movements in price within those parameters are orders being matched its purely business. Albeit with the dominant able to take advantage. But for us guys just work with the averages and the upper and lower extremes. This is pure nature and not difficult to work out
Your risk ratio is the same. Even more now with leverage restrictions.
  • #12
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:24pm Aug 30, 2019 3:24pm
You only need to calculate when the full range is broken with conviction.
  • #13
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:26pm Aug 30, 2019 3:26pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Hi David. The average prices are calculated from the present value inclusive of the extremes. If you calculate the lower time frames they will always converge with the higher. Whilst price remains within these boundaries you will always trade within the average price and your probability of loss decreases significantly. The only time you really need to readjust those zones is when they are no longer in play. Unless you have had large amounts of capital to convert either through your work or personal business you will not quite understand...
So you see the drop coming from your calculations?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 43 KB
Stop using OANDA!You will lose money,they stop PRACTICE accnts, kept SPIKES
  • #14
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:41pm Aug 30, 2019 3:41pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Hi David. The average prices are calculated from the present value inclusive of the extremes. If you calculate the lower time frames they will always converge with the higher. Whilst price remains within these boundaries you will always trade within the average price and your probability of loss decreases significantly. The only time you really need to readjust those zones is when they are no longer in play. Unless you have had large amounts of capital to convert either through your work or personal business you will not quite understand...
Ok, so you use the current orders (buy and sell) at the time t, do you?
  • #15
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:50pm Aug 30, 2019 3:50pm
Quoting rtopa43
{quote} So you see the drop coming from your calculations? {image}
Yes I do..

We are still within my calcs for 9 days or so .
  • #16
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:52pm Aug 30, 2019 3:52pm
The extreme lows yet to be tested.but only time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17
  • Aug 30, 2019 3:57pm Aug 30, 2019 3:57pm
Quoting DavidRP
{quote} Ok, so you use the current orders (buy and sell) at the time t, do you?
Ochl
Across time frames

And the extremes from the average. Futer average price.

I do not know the futer unfolding events but I know the futer converged average .which is governed by nature
  • #18
  • Aug 30, 2019 11:25pm Aug 30, 2019 11:25pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} Yes I do.. We are still within my calcs for 9 days or so .
You are amazing! You are the greatest! Such a big move so you trade it? Show to us your greatness with a screenshot of your live account of the trade!
Stop using OANDA!You will lose money,they stop PRACTICE accnts, kept SPIKES
  • #19
  • Aug 31, 2019 4:20am Aug 31, 2019 4:20am
Quoting dkrock
Like I said, until you are 100% accurate, you cannot convince me you can predict anything, LOL. However, best of luck!!
True words. Prediction ultimately leads to chaos in the Forex Markets. Some traders say they can accurately predict this or that.
I just laugh at these statements. Can they do it consistently? What happens after a wrong prediction? The chaos lies in the act of trying to predict,
instead of trying to decipher what's happening currently. Trade safe
  • #20
  • Aug 31, 2019 4:49am Aug 31, 2019 4:49am
You need enough information to make better trading decisions. One tick is no information. It's like trying to judge which season you are in by using the weather of today. You can say we are in winter. You can't say it's gonna snow tomorrow Because it snowed today.

Prices are priced right most of the times but occasionally, mispricing occurs.
When you see it, BET big.
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