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Spoof's Trading Made Simple(r) Journal

  • #701
  • Aug 21, 2019 11:57pm Aug 21, 2019 11:57pm
Quoting TheSpoof
The entry method is not all that important at the end of the day. {image}
Yet more questions:
What exactly produces your entry-signal now?
1. Is it - in your downtrend example - a low1/low2 etc (Al Brooks) or do you use an indicator?
2. The example you chose can be traded successfully with almost any strategy. Did you check the results for choppy, sideways markets?
MAs tend to lag, The D1-timeframe will - like H4 - generate long difficult ranges. How is your new system - backtests etc? - doing then?
If it isn't better or simpler than TMS, why change (see Walter Peters: Naked Forex - "cycle of doom")
I'm only asking because I want to learn.
  • #702
  • Edited 8:35am Aug 22, 2019 8:12am | Edited 8:35am
That was close!! Nice to see my broker didn't screw me over Sure be nice if this trade would now go hit my TP instead of bouncing around here.
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Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #703
  • Edited 9:14am Aug 22, 2019 8:13am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting josi
{quote} Yet more questions: What exactly produces your entry-signal now? 1. Is it - in your downtrend example - a low1/low2 etc (Al Brooks) or do you use an indicator? 2. The example you chose can be traded successfully with almost any strategy. Did you check the results for choppy, sideways markets? MAs tend to lag, The D1-timeframe will - like H4 - generate long difficult ranges. How is your new system - backtests etc? - doing then? If it isn't better or simpler than TMS, why change (see Walter Peters: Naked Forex - "cycle of doom") I'm only asking...
Like I said, I will explain all of this in a video later today.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #704
  • Aug 22, 2019 12:49pm Aug 22, 2019 12:49pm
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} Like I said, I will explain all of this in a video later today.
Looking forward to the video, mate
  • #705
  • Edited 5:44pm Aug 22, 2019 2:02pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting KarooVellies
{quote} Looking forward to the video, mate
Ok...video is uploading and it is a beast. It's about an hour long so I hope you will watch it through to the end as I discuss several important things and show this new idea on the daily as well as four hour charts and compare/contrast with the current smTMMS oscillator methods. I will post the template and general rules after the video is uploaded and posted here. Please make sure to watch to the end (some important summaries in the last 15 minutes or so) so you understand where I am coming from and if it makes sense to you before you go jumping into it. What I am sharing is not going to suit everyone simply due to the sheer amount of patience that will be required to trade successfully. Most traders cannot trade the dailies because they can't master the patience required to spend most of the time waiting for the trade setups. It is certainly a struggle and one that I am really hoping to have finally conquered after this horrible month on the 4 hour charts.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #706
  • Aug 22, 2019 4:11pm Aug 22, 2019 4:11pm
Hi Spoof...I just wanted to say thank you for all of your hard work...it is much appreciated. :-) Billy
  • #707
  • Aug 22, 2019 4:16pm Aug 22, 2019 4:16pm
Quoting apo
Hi Spoof...I just wanted to say thank you for all of your hard work...it is much appreciated. :-) Billy
Thanks, Billy. Hopefully we can get some profits back going forward. Bit of a rough patch, but I think things will start to come together again here moving out of summer and with some new ideas to avoid these awful trading conditions as of late.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #708
  • Aug 22, 2019 8:31pm Aug 22, 2019 8:31pm
Thanks, TS. I'm still hanging around. Copped a few beatings lately. Thanks for all your hard work.
  • #709
  • Aug 22, 2019 8:32pm Aug 22, 2019 8:32pm
Beast of a video is still uploading...Mexican internet doesn't help either
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #710
  • Aug 22, 2019 8:33pm Aug 22, 2019 8:33pm
Quoting carmelina
Thanks, TS. I'm still hanging around. Copped a few beatings lately. Thanks for all your hard work.
I know...it's been a rough few weeks. Bad trading conditions right now on the 4 hour especially.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #711
  • Aug 22, 2019 11:40pm Aug 22, 2019 11:40pm
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} after this horrible month on the 4 hour charts.
I really don't want to be a spoilsport but I am still wondering if:
a) changing the methodology
b) changing the TF
is what is needed. Have a look at the chart - how was this "horrible"? Do you really think you will find better ones than this on D1?
If not - isn't the problem rather one of selecting the right currency pair before you enter than of trading methodology?
So shouldn't the focus be on pre-entry analysis (i. e. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12458863)?
I'm not at all saying that I know better (hindsight and all) and I don't criticize anyone - I'm just wondering if this will really address the problem.
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  • #712
  • Edited 7:57am Aug 23, 2019 6:59am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting josi
{quote} I really don't want to be a spoilsport but I am still wondering if: a) changing the methodology b) changing the TF is what is needed. Have a look at the chart - how was this "horrible"? Do you really think you will find better ones than this on D1? If not - isn't the problem rather one of selecting the right currency pair before you enter than of trading methodology? So shouldn't the focus be on pre-entry analysis (i. e. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12458863)? I'm not at all saying that I know better...
Sure...the methodology worked fantastic on that pair for the last little while because the pair was in a strong downtrend. The trading conditions were great - a monkey could have pulled money out of that pair. You are looking at this chart in hindsight. How did you know that this nice down trend was potentially setting up? You didn't until it all unfolded. How do you know when it is coming to an end? How many losses do you take when this goes into a consolidation phase before you realize you are in it? I can also point out multiple ways to get into successful trades on that chart you posted. It isn't about the entries at the end of the day when the conditions are good i.e. having a strong trend in place. What is needed is a way to objectively determine favourable trading conditions and avoid bad trading conditions - that is what I am after and I believe I have sorted it out as best as can be done. Daily charts also tend to have longer and more stable trends than the four hour charts which I clearly demonstrate in the video in the post below
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #713
  • Edited 8:05am Aug 23, 2019 7:20am | Edited 8:05am
MAJOR UPDATE VIDEO

Ok, folks...video finally uploaded. So, the purpose of this video is to discuss how to find trading conditions that give us a better chance of winning trades. Those conditions favourable are known as trends. We need to trade only in trending conditions and forget the idea of getting into trends early as that will just lead to more whipsaw losses than success IMO. What is important to note is this is not so much about a new system as much as it is about finding the best conditions to trade.

The current entry methods and the smTMMS oscillator can still be used if you want but it is largely unnecessary. In the original methodologies one of the entry criteria was to only take continuation trades and what that basically means is waiting for a trend to establish and then trade with the trend which is precisely what I am showing in this video. It just so happens that when the market is trending you can get on board the moves several ways. The trending conditions are what leads to success not necessarily the entry technique or system.

The original methodologies do not show any way to objectively determine favourable trading conditions and when those conditions may be ending once established. I have found a way that makes sense to me and is provable. Again, guys, losses are going to happen we can't prevent them but what we can do is stack the odds in our favour by staying away from choppy ranging conditions and seek out those conditions that will put some more confluence behind our trades. Really, the trend is our friend and that needs to be taken as gospel.

Please, please watch this video in its entirety. Grab your beverage of choice and chill it's about an hour long. I talk about several issues and go through a daily chart as well as a four hour chart. Remember - the point here is not so much a change in the system because at the heart the spirit is the same i.e. continuation trades or as it should be more accurately called swing trading a trend. The point is simply to objectively filter out bad trading conditions and then you can use your entry method of choice and I discuss several towards the end of the video.

Inserted Video
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #714
  • Edited 8:04am Aug 23, 2019 7:36am | Edited 8:04am
NEW TEMPLATE

Here is the new template and indicators as well as a chart with the rules. You can also simply add the EMAs to your existing templates and trade the current system but only take the signals when the EMAs are indicating favourable trending conditions. Do not take counter trend signals. I am choosing to no longer use the smTMMS oscillator or any other indicators because they aren't required. They don't give us any more valuable information than what the EMAs are showing. We want to see those EMAs separated and sloping with price away from them and then we trade the pullbacks. Simple as that. I do not recommend trading this on any time frame lower than the daily. If you must, you can use the four hour but you'd better use some sound money management strategies to avoid the whipsaws that are inherent to lower time frames. If you do catch a nice trend on the 4 hour chart let those trades run as long as you can.

The EMA periods are as follows all set to close: 20 (yellow), 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, and 60. The parabolic SAR: Step 0.05, Maximum 0.5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: zip NEW TEMPLATE and INDICATORS.zip   6 KB | 727 downloads
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #715
  • Aug 23, 2019 9:09am Aug 23, 2019 9:09am
[quote=TheSpoof;12459912]NEW TEMPLATE

Thnx Spoof. Watched the vid. Very good. Files uploaded and setup done. Ready for action!

Thnx for your dedication and hard work, mate. Will give feedback
  • #716
  • Edited 10:56am Aug 23, 2019 10:33am | Edited 10:56am
END of TRADING WEEK

Goofy spike today took me out of my EURUSD trade from last week. So I am now flat in the market and licking some wounds after the last three weeks sitting at a 3.8R loss for August. What a mess. Oh, well...draw downs happen. There are a few trades that I will likely be entering on the daily charts on Sunday when the markets open: AUDJPY, AUDCAD, EURAUD (a little late), USDJPY, USOUSD, and XAUUSD.

There are a few pairs that are on the watch for set ups soon coming on the daily charts: AUDUSD, AUDCHF, GBPJPY, USDCHF, and DAX30 are all getting close to the SAR flipping and giving the signal to trade back with the trend. Many of these pairs have been trending for a while so these trades may or may not work out - all trends come to an end, but then again the market can keep going a lot further than we think and it often does.

Have a good weekend everyone.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #717
  • Aug 23, 2019 11:17am Aug 23, 2019 11:17am
so if I understand you correctly you are now exclusively the D1 timeframe ?

Best,
Mark
  • #718
  • Aug 23, 2019 11:44am Aug 23, 2019 11:44am
Quoting TheSpoof
NEW TEMPLATE Here is the new template and indicators as well as a chart with the rules. You can also simply add the EMAs to your existing templates and trade the current system but only take the signals when the EMAs are indicating favourable trending conditions. Do not take counter trend signals. I am choosing to no longer use the smTMMS oscillator or any other indicators because they aren't required. They don't give us any more valuable information than what the EMAs are showing. We want to see those EMAs separated and sloping with price away...
Hi TS,
would this trade be a valid trade with the new rules?
regards,
Peter
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Just trying to put a kiss on the cheek of success
  • #719
  • Aug 23, 2019 12:42pm Aug 23, 2019 12:42pm
Quoting pet3250
{quote} Hi TS, would this trade be a valid trade with the new rules? regards, Peter {image}
Yes sir. Text book Strong daily down trend. Price is below the EMAs. Pullback appears to over based on the SAR. Short in the direction of the trend. I will be entering this on Sunday.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #720
  • Aug 23, 2019 12:45pm Aug 23, 2019 12:45pm
Quoting mtacki
so if I understand you correctly you are now exclusively the D1 timeframe ? Best, Mark
Yes. I am over trading on the 4 our charts and getting caught in too many whipsaws. I will go back to end of day trading on the daily charts. Slow, but more reliable I believe.
Emotion - it steals your money.
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