Spoof's Trading Made Simple(r) Journal

what if we go back to 1H charts too.

Closed mine for a coupla pips as not going anywhere.

I had to take a loss on both of my trades CJ & EJ.
Very important note: Never against the trend, duh.

Couple losses from last night. My mistake entirely for getting into some trades too early. Gotta nip that impatience in the bud - it costs money. I am going to step away from the four hour charts for a while and focus back on the dailies. Price is just a mess these last few weeks and whether that is simply due to summer markets or something else who knows, but it is becoming a pain in my ass - I need to take a breather and re-focus. Daily charts are always more reliable than the lower time frames, however, you don't get anywhere near as many trade signals which can be frustrating.

This is an on going battle I have had with myself for a long time now and I keep going back and forth between the two for various reasons. It takes a lot of patience to trade the daily charts since trades set up an unfold very slowly compared to the four hour charts. That being said, more trade set ups do not usually mean more profits. Quite often trade signals just end up failing in the normal movement of the daily market since our stops are usually within the daily range. Think if it this way...a daily candle has had the entire world behind the move over 24 hours whereas a four hour candle has 1/6 of the world behind it. The other 5/6 of the world could very well change the direction of that first candle and often does. What happens in the one trading session may not hold for the rest of the trading day. We get a signal to trade and it gets undone just like yesterday's EURJPY long signal. So basically a daily candle has a lot more conviction behind it than does a four hour candle.

I believe I am starting to over trade by trading the four hour charts and I'm having a bit of a battle with myself about needing to trade vs waiting for the best set ups so I am going to reel that in before it becomes a bigger issue (old habits die hard!). Here are some great articles that I am going to take on board and use as a chance to get my trading back on track in a focused manner:
https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...uantity-trades
https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...-forex-trading
https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...machine-gunner
https://www.learntotradethemarket.co...-forex-trading

Yup. This is a really important lesson we all need to take on board. Trading with the trend won't get us as many signals and some counter trend signals do turn out to be good trades, but overall I think trading with the trend puts more confluence behind the positions. Of course when the trend ends we will likely have a loss

My stop is at 0.5R now so we will see where it goes.

"The next thing that I realized after years of trial and error, was that if I ONLY focused on the daily charts, I naturally traded a lot less. This helped me to avoid over-trading and losing money unnecessarily. I will admit, you need enough self-discipline to do this, because it’s very easy to just flip open the lower time frames and ‘see what they’re doing’ quick. But, the second you do this, you’ve broken your rules and you’re opening yourself up to the temptations of the market. Remember, you are trying to change your habits and your routine to be more productive for you over the long-run. This means you must be disciplined and fight the urge to constantly trade. The way you do this is by planning what you will do in advance and sticking to it. So, part of your plan will be only looking at daily charts, this means to make it work, you must stick to that rule." ~Nial Fuller

Update : EU stopped out for a loss of -0.4R

I feel your pain

Sorry to hear that Spoof, 100% a tough week.

I used this weeks market illiquidity as a good testing period, price is choppy and truly unbalanced therefore unstable because of it. As a result the 4hour has been affected whereas the safe characteristics we know were lost and if you were not checking that you are correct in a higher trend signal direction i.e. the 1day undoubtedly you got stopped out but if you did you may have been fortunate to see your price range without moving away too much on some assets. Imho.

No investor appetite for risk across key currencys equals no liquidity or very tepid markets for various respective reasons; on top of that add low data days at the start of the week. We have definitely learnt our method loves the trend otherwise dont trade at all. I fear now some traders will get caught trying to make that money back when really we should just wait for the smooth movement that a truly liquid market gives to return.
In my demo account Of 14 trades this week 3 were successful and I still have 4 ranging. The rest stopped out.
This is just an observation I'm by no means an expert.

Indeed. It’s been a tough month in general. It’s ok though, better market conditions will return. You are absolutely right about revenge trading. Now is really the time to probably take a bit of a break. It’s looking like three weeks in a row now of crappy price action on the four hour charts. Need to be wary of this

This is something that many traders, including myself, need to really understand. Once this is accepted one’s trading mentality really starts to shift in a different direction.

Well...scan of the daily charts at the NY close and nothing to trade. Let the waiting begin

Hi TheSpoof,

sorry for my bad english and gramma , because english is not my mother language!
Im a sillence follower of your journal and like it very much. So dont let the short loss
to be your obstacle . There is not a problem of using 4 hour chart . Its just the selection of
your TMMS entry. As we know there are many TMMS signal during a time periode and the most of them
dont work, you need to try to filter the best one with high win chance . Dont worry i will attach picture !!!
But at first i want to share my experience about your last trade with EURUSD.

If you use 4 hour time chart then u need to catch the begining of the trend , specially if u want a 2R or 3R !
There are 2 different ways to indentified a Trend change . Break + Retest of Resistance ( Resistance becoming support)

The yellow signal 5 is the entry but what has todo with TMMS signal ????? In Line 5 is no any sign of a TMMS signal .
After the Break and confirm of the HL to LH switch to H1 chart and look the TMS signal !!! ( PIC 2)

In this trade the SL will be above the entry candle ~ 30 pips and unfortunely he runs only ~ 40 pips ! But at least u go in without to loss for a BE.

The second way is to use a weekly Davit pivot int the 4 hour chart ! Wait the price reach above S61 or R61 and break the HL and
retest .( Resistance become to Support )

In this pic u see 3 TMMS signal but not all of them have this critiria > ( Resistance become to Support )
Only the 3th line has such condition the other two are useless TMMS signals !
Thats what i mean with " most of them dont work "

If u have no much time just use the second methods in 4 hours chart and wait any currency to come into the 61 or above area !!!!
by 28 currency u have a lots of trade , sure there will be loosers ,too . But your RR recover the looser ver well .

Dont misunderstand my reply , i just want to share my experience with this indicator and become a part of this journal !

DC

I appreciate your analysis, but the original methodologies generally did not take any other factors into account. The idea was to make trading simpler. You are basically now primarily trading support and resistance with the addition of the oscillator as opposed to just using the signals generated by the indicators. For what it's worth, pivots fail as often as they work. I don't think it adds any measurable advantage to consider them.

My new trading ideas for the daily chart borrow from what you are talking about here but I will be using indicators to identify trending conditions. I want to move back to the daily charts for the reasons in the articles posted above. Four hour charts just aren’t reliable enough for me and I’m over trading.

Hi spoof, thanks for understanding for my purpose. I got worry u kick me out for the reply ....
The point behind my message is the Trend following into the Big direction. Without a direction only Tms alone lead us into a ranging market .
Dont mistunderstand my purpose > I dont want make any changing or comment of the startegy . I just want to share and talk about experience to improve . I have learn alots about from your journal and from your video and want to ask about your experience as well. The best friendly way is to share before to ask for anything .

This is what we are fighting trading a momentum based strategy. Historically low volatility in forex. Like squeezing blood from a stone right now.

Yup...this has been a terrible three weeks. Like I have said before, there are many traders that take the summer and December off of trading for a reason. On the daily charts not so bad since you can potentially ride out some inside bars or generally small price movements and then perhaps when things pick up price will move with the overall trend. The four hour charts? Whipsawed to death since the stops are right in the intraday price ranges.