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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #101
  • Aug 14, 2019 4:03pm Aug 14, 2019 4:03pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Technically, from top to bottom was nearly 20 years rather than only ten....just saying....
obviously that was a typo... though I placed the actual chart, so everyone can see the picture...
  • #102
  • Edited 4:46pm Aug 14, 2019 4:24pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting Edd111111
hi Igrok, in your opinion do you think we will see a new hi in DJIA prior to your descending forecast ? i.e do you see another opportunity for accumulating short positions either euqal to or better than your prior estimate ? this question comes in alignment with enough people being on the wrong side of the trade to cause the emotional response warranted for your prior target objectives.
current top on dailies looks rather a bit flat to me from the geometrical point of view, which is a rare case for a major trend reversal... therefore it looks a bit suspicious... on the other hand, the measured objective target at 27250 got reached and even exceeded for just a bit... therefore there is nothing that would make my initial chart projection impossible... technically it's already a real broadening triangle indeed... not quite symmetrical and picture-perfect though, but still can turn into a some sort of a reversal diamond as it was expected...
  • #103
  • Edited 5:08pm Aug 14, 2019 4:32pm | Edited 5:08pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} That's true,.... provided you don't look at unemployment, or consumer spending or GDP or consumer confidence or basically any other economic indicator..... As a professional trader and capital manager for 26 years, surely you can't believe that?
apparently you imply that all those indicators have also quadrupled by now since 2008... OK.. I don't argue... bring in the actual data to support your position cause I'm too lazy to look for each and every indicator that you mentioned in order to support my initial statement... though here is the link to the historic consumer spending data: https://www.statista.com/statistics/383668/us-self-reported-consumer-spending-2008... as everyone can see those numbers being compared against now and back then are unlikely to justify such a huge rise in the US stock market value over the last 10-year period...
here is also some US GDP data: it was 14.72 trillion USD in 2008 and later by 2018 it rose to a level of $20.50 trillion... then take into consideration the inflation and the change in the USD buying power since then and you get the whole picture about this particular indicator which shows that the economy hasn't actually changed much over the last 10 years either... here is the link to some useful statistics... http://www.in2013dollars.com/2009-dollars-in-2017
  • #104
  • Aug 14, 2019 4:34pm Aug 14, 2019 4:34pm
its ok .... we ready to use leaves ....
  • #105
  • Aug 15, 2019 2:34am Aug 15, 2019 2:34am
Update of the Yield curve chart.

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #106
  • Edited Aug 16, 2019 9:04am Aug 15, 2019 4:36pm | Edited Aug 16, 2019 9:04am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} then take into consideration the inflation and the change in the USD buying power since then and you get the whole picture about this particular indicator which shows that the economy hasn't actually changed much over the last 10 years either...
Here is a good link to the national Economic Indicators from the Richmondfed.org site: https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/research/national_economy/national_economic_indicators/pdf/all_charts.pdf

By the end of 2008, many, many people were unemployed. Consumer spending was down. People weren't building houses any more. People saw their IRAs and 401k drop by half. People that were planning to retire and use money from 401k and other pension plans had to postpone retirement. People were a lot more scared of their situation than they are today. Thus, at least in my mind, showing that the economy is better now than it was then. The charts in the above link support that.

As far as the stock market being over priced, I agree. In reality, what makes Google stock worth $1200/share? For old timers, remember Red Hat?....December 1999 it traded at $151....less than 2 years later it was at $3.00. A lot of stock pricing is smoke and mirrors....why else would a stock drop if it had good earning results, but failed to reach what "analysist" thought it should? I remember Croc Shoes back in 2008, I believe, was trading around $75 and an analysist came out and said he saw a problem because of high inventory. The next day it dropped by half. Never mind that the inventory was due to getting ready to open several new stores and introducing several new styles, but just on a word from a guy that is supposed to know, people lost half of their retirement. So I agree the prices of the stock are usually inflated and controlled by outside sources.

Having said that, I do not believe we will ever see the DJIA at 6000 again....
  • #107
  • Aug 15, 2019 11:44pm Aug 15, 2019 11:44pm
5 years more son .....
  • #108
  • Aug 16, 2019 6:14am Aug 16, 2019 6:14am
No day without Hindenburg Omen ...

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #109
  • Aug 16, 2019 6:38am Aug 16, 2019 6:38am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} So I agree the prices of the stock are usually inflated and controlled by outside sources. Having said that, I do not believe we will ever see the DJIA at 6000 again....
it case it really turns out to be a diamond eventually then the slide back to under 6000 level on the Dow will be inevitable regardless of any current fundamental reasons or believes... it works pretty much like some law of physics... if no diamond though then it might be some other scenarios with a drop to under 17K-18K at least still being a must...
  • #110
  • Aug 16, 2019 7:13am Aug 16, 2019 7:13am
Hello Igrok,
i find all your posts very interesting and on point. Can I be your student?
  • #111
  • Aug 16, 2019 7:24am Aug 16, 2019 7:24am
Thanks Sixer lover your the charts that you post and thanks Igor for taking the time to get back to everyone. certainly is interesting times with volatility about to return.
  • #112
  • Aug 16, 2019 8:00am Aug 16, 2019 8:00am
S&P:

Will wave "c" (green) in wave "2" unfolding as an Ending Diagonal ?

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #113
  • Aug 16, 2019 10:30am Aug 16, 2019 10:30am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} it case it really turns out to be a diamond eventually then the slide back to under 6000 level on the Dow will be inevitable regardless of any current fundamental reasons or believes... it works pretty much like some law of physics... if no diamond though then it might be some other scenarios with a drop to under 17K-18K at least still being a must...
The right side of the diamond just looks like a Flag pattern to me, with the same outcome....either a continuation or a fail. Heck, you can get a fairly accurate direction with a simple trend line break. I just don't understand why the belief that 5000 would be the target, when on a weekly or monthly chart there are NUMEROUS support levels long before you get to that point.

Do you have an example of when a Reversal Diamond indicated a drop of more than 75% (or even 50%) of a stock? Maybe seeing the full scenario would help understanding....
  • #114
  • Aug 17, 2019 12:22am Aug 17, 2019 12:22am
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} The right side of the diamond just looks like a Flag pattern to me, with the same outcome....either a continuation or a fail. Heck, you can get a fairly accurate direction with a simple trend line break. I just don't understand why the belief that 5000 would be the target, when on a weekly or monthly chart there are NUMEROUS support levels long before you get to that point. Do you have an example of when a Reversal Diamond indicated a drop of more than 75% (or even 50%) of a stock? Maybe seeing the full scenario would help understanding....
take a look at the picture in the first post of this tread... according to that projection the right side of the potential diamond hasn't even been build yet... only the left one seems to be complete by now... though, the general diamond rules are simple... a continuation diamond always indicated the middle of a trend while a continuation diamond indicates a full reversal which normally leads to the previous trend being completely covered... in this particular case the trend has stated in January 2009 at 6470 level thus making it a legit target once the trend reverses, while a measured objective target of 27250 for a continuation diamond that was formed in 2014-2016 between 15370 and 18351 has been reached already...
  • #115
  • Aug 17, 2019 12:53am Aug 17, 2019 12:53am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #116
  • Aug 19, 2019 1:37pm Aug 19, 2019 1:37pm
Hello,
will you please describe how you draw the diamond in the first post of this thread? it looks like first you draw the line on the right at the bottom connecting the two lowest points
How do you draw the line on top of it? Thanks

Quoting Igrok
{quote} take a look at the picture in the first post of this tread... according to that projection the right side of the potential diamond hasn't even been build yet... only the left one seems to be complete by now... though, the general diamond rules are simple... a continuation diamond always indicated the middle of a trend while a continuation diamond indicates a full reversal which normally leads to the previous trend being completely covered... in this particular case the trend has stated in January 2009 at 6470 level thus making it a legit...
  • #117
  • Aug 20, 2019 5:32am Aug 20, 2019 5:32am
HI MarcB maybe you could check out "Beat the Odds in Forex Trading: How to Identify and Profit from High Percentage Market Patterns" as a book from Amazon or all good book stores. Perhaps that is a good place to start other technical books also offer insight into diamond patterns, the one mentioned before will give you a closer Risk reward for stops targets etc.
  • #118
  • Aug 20, 2019 6:03am Aug 20, 2019 6:03am
He can also start with the Colibri Trader stuff: Trading with Chart Patterns

Sixer
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Colibri Trader-Trading with Chart Patterns.pdf   383 KB | 947 downloads
  • #119
  • Aug 21, 2019 5:23am Aug 21, 2019 5:23am
Dow Jones Index:

The bullish outlook to "30000" ...

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EW-DJI(D)-21.8.19.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #120
  • Edited 5:24am Aug 28, 2019 1:17am | Edited 5:24am
Recession fears:

Are we at the marked points from the past ?

Sixer

Edit:
Profitable Long entries if you catch ROC values below "-6".
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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