Disliked{quote} problem you have with buy swaps if you get a sideways movement for a week mate i would believe your account would look like shit , and if it spiked down which does happen with exotics you get killed both ways , in my opinion a buy swap is a day trade get in and out , now a sell swap is the longer term trade if you get it at a high price and now its in the nearly in the range you can hold because the swap keeps adding to your account , now with this being said i would be interested in your opinion on how much negative swaps would take to...Ignored
Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)
- #2,222
- Aug 15, 2019 4:48pm Aug 15, 2019 4:48pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
{quote} Mate.. you're clueless. I might actually give up even posting here given the level of insight displayed. I won't even bother arguing. Time will do my arguing. I dare you to short USDZAR and hold.
i asked for your opinion but you came armed with excuses 
i am sure most trader will look at your post and shake there heads ,
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- #2,223
- Aug 15, 2019 4:54pm Aug 15, 2019 4:54pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
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- #2,224
- Aug 15, 2019 5:55pm Aug 15, 2019 5:55pm
{quote} yes it seems any one that points out the bad things of trading systems is being naughty , seems you are set in your ways please do not post here if you feel like a idiot , has zar as fallen last night where are you making money more negative swaps have been added and please do not make me smile at you , please feel free to keep them to yourself please look above and see the short
- #2,225
- Aug 15, 2019 5:58pm Aug 15, 2019 5:58pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
{quote} Painfully low IQ. I recommend spending the money you lose in FX on a good English course. Might help you find a job to help pay for your Forex habit lol. C u in a month.
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- #2,226
- Aug 15, 2019 6:04pm Aug 15, 2019 6:04pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
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- #2,227
- Edited 6:39pm Aug 15, 2019 6:25pm | Edited 6:39pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
when you trade exotics you have to beware of the risk involved in buys on it 
now if you had bought at the bottom at the end up side i can see profit less swaps and i am sure you can make a few dollars i have no problem with that trade risky being a exotic , but better trading would have seen you travel both ways
now if you had bought at the bottom at the end up side i can see profit less swaps and i am sure you can make a few dollars i have no problem with that trade risky being a exotic , but better trading would have seen you travel both ways
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- #2,229
- Aug 15, 2019 9:45pm Aug 15, 2019 9:45pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
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- #2,230
- Edited 10:12pm Aug 15, 2019 10:01pm | Edited 10:12pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
{quote} Nobody here cares to read the continual bickering between you two
will refrain from from bickering from him but will start with you 
glad your inputs on exotics was very helpful keep it up
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- #2,231
- Aug 16, 2019 3:16am Aug 16, 2019 3:16am
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
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Hello everyone,
I'd like to share my views on the current USD/TRY state, but first a few things to say about the Exotic currency pairs.
I believe more and more traders are starting to take their focus off the major pairs and starting to look at exotics as a gold mine. It is true that exotics provide more liquidity and there is stronger volatility involved in those markets, which could give your trades faster development. However this could also have a negative impact - your Stop Losses being hit quite fast. I personally trade exotics, but I usually invest in them the money I've already won from my main trading approach on the Majors. My approach to the exotics is usually intraday, since in the long run its' harder to survive on the spikes and huge noise there is connected with those pairs. Not to mention that the fees for keeping a trade open are higher and the spread is also higher.
So I take my winnings and invest them in intraday trades on the Exotics as the trades develop sometimes extremely fast and it can multiply my winnings. If its' a loss I am fine with it, because my main capital is not touched.
So moving on to the USD/TRY. Obviously the economic situation in Turkey is bad for quite some time and the USD was gaining swinging further up against the TRY. Now that the economic situation in the states is becoming more and more unstable with each day we've entered in to a downtrend on this pair. I suppose it could not get worse than that for the TRY. Below is the Daily chart of the currency pair with some additional info.
Analysis: We can see that in the past few days the pair starting swinging up again and has now reached a strong previous support zone, now turned in to a resistance. I expect to see a downswing here which could give us a possibility to make a quick intraday trade.
Analysis: On the H4 time frame we can see that 2 impulse waves were completed and only 1 correctional wave. If we see a movement down I expect it to end at the end of Wave 1 or the previous high in this uptrend. It almost aligns with a low made on the daily chart around 5.6183.
So based on that analysis I'll be switching to M30 in order to find good intraday opportunities.
I hope this analysis helps you! If you have any questions please don't hesitate to ask!
And I wish everyone a profitable trading day, week, month, year and eternity!
I'd like to share my views on the current USD/TRY state, but first a few things to say about the Exotic currency pairs.
I believe more and more traders are starting to take their focus off the major pairs and starting to look at exotics as a gold mine. It is true that exotics provide more liquidity and there is stronger volatility involved in those markets, which could give your trades faster development. However this could also have a negative impact - your Stop Losses being hit quite fast. I personally trade exotics, but I usually invest in them the money I've already won from my main trading approach on the Majors. My approach to the exotics is usually intraday, since in the long run its' harder to survive on the spikes and huge noise there is connected with those pairs. Not to mention that the fees for keeping a trade open are higher and the spread is also higher.
So I take my winnings and invest them in intraday trades on the Exotics as the trades develop sometimes extremely fast and it can multiply my winnings. If its' a loss I am fine with it, because my main capital is not touched.
So moving on to the USD/TRY. Obviously the economic situation in Turkey is bad for quite some time and the USD was gaining swinging further up against the TRY. Now that the economic situation in the states is becoming more and more unstable with each day we've entered in to a downtrend on this pair. I suppose it could not get worse than that for the TRY. Below is the Daily chart of the currency pair with some additional info.
Analysis: We can see that in the past few days the pair starting swinging up again and has now reached a strong previous support zone, now turned in to a resistance. I expect to see a downswing here which could give us a possibility to make a quick intraday trade.
Analysis: On the H4 time frame we can see that 2 impulse waves were completed and only 1 correctional wave. If we see a movement down I expect it to end at the end of Wave 1 or the previous high in this uptrend. It almost aligns with a low made on the daily chart around 5.6183.
So based on that analysis I'll be switching to M30 in order to find good intraday opportunities.
I hope this analysis helps you! If you have any questions please don't hesitate to ask!
And I wish everyone a profitable trading day, week, month, year and eternity!
- #2,234
- Aug 22, 2019 2:23am Aug 22, 2019 2:23am
- Joined Apr 2019 | Status: Trader | 3,132 Posts
#USDTRY / Daily / Four Ideas 
- #2,236
- Aug 31, 2019 6:01pm Aug 31, 2019 6:01pm
- Joined Nov 2017 | Status: Rebarkable | 1,428 Posts
Hey there, Supertraders!
usdMXN
According to the Daily (and the WK for now) it looks short. I'm twisted with a stronger dollar, so I'll watch it closely before deciding.
The charts are showing me that the H1 needs to come up into that cycle. There's a nice obvious fib/50sma/R38 pivot confluence that looks nice and easy. Right?
If she's short, she's gonna come back down around that area, my guess.
Alternatively, if DXY decides to start screaming again, I can leave in the trade and just ride it. I can tell that vis Stochastic momentum readings. You can't, because my indicator is custom. But stochastic set to 5,3,2 should show this momentum if you know how to read it well.
You see the orange zig zag? That's a weak double bottom pattern on H4 if there's a bullish run. I bet it's short-lived if it is a bullish run. The D1 on my chart has a cnfm high. The W1 on my chart has an unconfirmed high. The monthly is in a position to go either bull or bear on my stochastic indicator and that's cause for risk concern. I'm always trying to take trades when guys like you swing big money and often I must be very patient.
In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see the MM make it look like it's going to run up solid, but come back down with it.
MED/HIGH RISK.
Edit: WE'RE CLOSED MONDAY . . . . so, time to sit on fingers until volume kicks in
However, MEXICO has some bizness going on around 7am EST. So, there's that.
usdMXN
According to the Daily (and the WK for now) it looks short. I'm twisted with a stronger dollar, so I'll watch it closely before deciding.
The charts are showing me that the H1 needs to come up into that cycle. There's a nice obvious fib/50sma/R38 pivot confluence that looks nice and easy. Right?
If she's short, she's gonna come back down around that area, my guess.
Alternatively, if DXY decides to start screaming again, I can leave in the trade and just ride it. I can tell that vis Stochastic momentum readings. You can't, because my indicator is custom. But stochastic set to 5,3,2 should show this momentum if you know how to read it well.
You see the orange zig zag? That's a weak double bottom pattern on H4 if there's a bullish run. I bet it's short-lived if it is a bullish run. The D1 on my chart has a cnfm high. The W1 on my chart has an unconfirmed high. The monthly is in a position to go either bull or bear on my stochastic indicator and that's cause for risk concern. I'm always trying to take trades when guys like you swing big money and often I must be very patient.
In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see the MM make it look like it's going to run up solid, but come back down with it.
MED/HIGH RISK.
Edit: WE'RE CLOSED MONDAY . . . . so, time to sit on fingers until volume kicks in
However, MEXICO has some bizness going on around 7am EST. So, there's that.
- #2,237
- Aug 31, 2019 6:18pm Aug 31, 2019 6:18pm
- Joined Nov 2017 | Status: Rebarkable | 1,428 Posts
{quote} ok gstring
There's a pecking order around these parts. The cool part is, most of the old timers don't expect you to roll out the red carpet HOWEVER, if there's one thing I've learned:
If there's anyone on FX that has been here a long time AND they claim they are from AUSTRALIA, you should probably shut up. Not real sure what they put in the drinking water in Australia, but it produces some seriously excellent FX traders.
Therefore, it does not surprise me that Aussi was correct. Just look at that bear move:
That being said,
Hey Aussi, I've seen this behavior before via usdMXN :
That was quite a lesson for me. Hard to forget how I got chewed up in that.
So, I might look into trading usdZAR. It needs to make another daily top (but no guarantee).
edit: Ignore my text. That's my 'idiot text'.
- #2,238
- Aug 31, 2019 6:47pm Aug 31, 2019 6:47pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
{quote} NOTICE: There's a pecking order around these parts. The cool part is, most of the old timers don't expect you to roll out the red carpet HOWEVER, if there's one thing I've learned: If there's anyone on FX that has been here a long time AND they claim they are from AUSTRALIA, you should probably shut up. Not real sure what they put in the drinking water in Australia, but it produces some seriously excellent FX traders. Therefore, it does not surprise me that Aussi was correct. Just look at that bear move: {image} That being said, Hey Aussi,...
look at open and one hour after open if you see the stoch twist a little down i usually get a small sell some times as you know zar can move up but in my experiance it does come down during the day in saying that watch it every day for a week mate on hr chart it might show you what i am talking about
regarding the post on the guy buy on zar you can see the chart mate and he probably as made money but if holds in a ranging market buy swaps will kill his profit
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- #2,239
- Aug 31, 2019 6:55pm Aug 31, 2019 6:55pm
- Joined Nov 2017 | Status: Rebarkable | 1,428 Posts
usdZAR
Still don't have a bottom on the Monthly swing. My first instinct is to think:
It's making a double top formation.
That would require the DXY to go into a very very bad scenario - like crash scenario bad - and, well, that is possible, but it is not probable. I want probabilities, especially higher probabilities.
The better probability is: It's ranging to haul into a higher low on the monthly chart.
Note: By "higher low" I'm talking about my missing green arrow (stochastic calculations).
The other alternative is: usdZAR makes a higher high on the monthly. I'm not counting on it as we need some retracements on this pair and also the DXY.
The rest of this chart reads exactly like usdMXN. And you know what that means. It's all on the dollar.
Now I look at economic activity for ZAR. Oh look! Happenings at 6am est.
Let's not forget: USD and CAD banks are closed Monday. Happy holiday!
Still don't have a bottom on the Monthly swing. My first instinct is to think:
It's making a double top formation.
That would require the DXY to go into a very very bad scenario - like crash scenario bad - and, well, that is possible, but it is not probable. I want probabilities, especially higher probabilities.
The better probability is: It's ranging to haul into a higher low on the monthly chart.
Note: By "higher low" I'm talking about my missing green arrow (stochastic calculations).
The other alternative is: usdZAR makes a higher high on the monthly. I'm not counting on it as we need some retracements on this pair and also the DXY.
The rest of this chart reads exactly like usdMXN. And you know what that means. It's all on the dollar.
Now I look at economic activity for ZAR. Oh look! Happenings at 6am est.
Let's not forget: USD and CAD banks are closed Monday. Happy holiday!
- #2,240
- Aug 31, 2019 7:01pm Aug 31, 2019 7:01pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 25,201 Posts
usdZAR Still don't have a bottom on the Monthly swing. My first instinct is to think: It's making a double top formation. That would require the DXY to go into a very very bad scenario - like crash scenario bad - and, well, that is possible, but it is not probable. I want probabilities, especially higher probabilities. The better probability is: It's ranging to haul into a higher low on the monthly chart. Note: By "higher low" I'm talking about my missing green arrow (stochastic calculations). The other alternative is: usdZAR makes a higher high...
on zar i have limit sells higher mate
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