Technical Analysis of Energy Markets | Forex Factory

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Technical Analysis of Energy Markets

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 14, 2019 8:40pm Aug 14, 2019 8:40pm
Interesting new site here where I can have my observations on crude in an orderly manner. Lets get down to business and start Crude

As the daily chart below shows, WTI currently locked in a sideways range with roughly $60 on the upside and $50 on the downside.

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Here is where it gets interesting. Looking at the 60M chart, WTI has broken below its rising trendline which had been in place for nearly 7 days and is now facing resistance at $57 and appears to be headed to the lower end of the range.

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  • #2
  • Aug 14, 2019 9:42pm Aug 14, 2019 9:42pm
Quoting demontrade
Here is where it gets interesting.
Looks like a larger downward channel as well. Are you a bear for the time being?
  • #3
  • Aug 14, 2019 11:20pm Aug 14, 2019 11:20pm
Quoting vpn
{quote} Looks like a larger downward channel as well. Are you a bear for the time being?
Yes! Bear on a larger time-frame while below 62 and then importantly 67, and WTI is sideways on a medium term time frame within 60-50. On the short term time frame it is again bearish and headed towards $50!

A move above $67 is needed to shift larger trend to bullish.
  • #4
  • Aug 15, 2019 6:31am Aug 15, 2019 6:31am
Good to hear. I don't see 67 happening again save for war happening, which I don't really foresee on the horizon.
  • #5
  • Aug 15, 2019 7:22pm Aug 15, 2019 7:22pm
Looking at WTI today, below the trendline, crude has once again gone inside a very small range of $55.32 and $53.97. A break of the range will give us next swing trade. I still think there is more downside in store. Look that Trender indicator on all 3 time frames point downward. (Trender is a Bloomberg indicator which is similar to parabolic sar). What do other guys think?

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  • #6
  • Aug 15, 2019 11:46pm Aug 15, 2019 11:46pm
54.66 as we speak
  • #7
  • Aug 18, 2019 10:20pm Aug 18, 2019 10:20pm
There has been little change in crude outlook as of now, but it is providing better levels to enter short position. I am entering with SL above $55.67 and target $54.00

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  • #8
  • Aug 18, 2019 11:07pm Aug 18, 2019 11:07pm
She's definitely looking like she's losing steam!
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  • #9
  • Aug 19, 2019 6:16am Aug 19, 2019 6:16am
Quoting C8H18
She's definitely looking like she's losing steam! {image}
Yeah but unfortunately I got stopped out. Will look to re-enter a short trade.
  • #10
  • Aug 19, 2019 9:07am Aug 19, 2019 9:07am
I was thinking short too. Do you think this channel on the H4 looks legitimate?
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  • #11
  • Aug 19, 2019 10:18pm Aug 19, 2019 10:18pm
Quoting vpn
I was thinking short too. Do you think this channel on the H4 looks legitimate?{image}
Yeah absolutely and currently crude near the upper end of the channel. A down move is likely shortly and it appears that it is waiting for some trigger. Perhaps some news or API data later today.
  • #12
  • Aug 20, 2019 6:46am Aug 20, 2019 6:46am
Cool - I ended up going limit short and my order was filled... we'll see how she does:
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  • #13
  • Aug 20, 2019 9:57am Aug 20, 2019 9:57am
Quoting vpn
Cool - I ended up going limit short and my order was filled... we'll see how she does:{image}
Good luck. Where have you kept stop?
  • #14
  • Aug 20, 2019 11:46am Aug 20, 2019 11:46am
Quoting demontrade
{quote} Yeah but unfortunately I got stopped out. Will look to re-enter a short trade.
Were you able to re-enter and collect some profits? You had the set-up
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  • #15
  • Edited 11:13pm Aug 20, 2019 10:57pm | Edited 11:13pm
Quoting C8H18
{quote} Were you able to re-enter and collect some profits? You had the set-up {image}
Yeah indeed I did but just a very small 20 ticks profit.

Looking ahead, crude got support yesterday at around 100-hour average which now is the fulcrum for short term and needs to break.

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  • #16
  • Aug 20, 2019 11:46pm Aug 20, 2019 11:46pm
Good stuff! In and out at the right time! The bulls have been stampeding as of late
  • #17
  • Aug 22, 2019 5:15am Aug 22, 2019 5:15am
Crude is in some sort of an uptrend on the 30M chart, however that will break on a fall below $54.80. I would enter short there or on a rally towards $56.70

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  • #18
  • Aug 22, 2019 10:22am Aug 22, 2019 10:22am
Quoting demontrade
{quote} Yeah indeed I did but just a very small 20 ticks profit. Looking ahead, crude got support yesterday at around 100-hour average which now is the fulcrum for short term and needs to break. {image}
Where are those screenshots from? That wouldn't be Bloomberg terminal by any chance?
As for market being locked etc.. I do not think we will see much action until tomorrows Powell's "kick in the nuts" speech...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #19
  • Aug 22, 2019 11:32pm Aug 22, 2019 11:32pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Where are those screenshots from? That wouldn't be Bloomberg terminal by any chance? As for market being locked etc.. I do not think we will see much action until tomorrows Powell's "kick in the nuts" speech...
Yeah that's Bloomberg terminal which I use along with Bloomberg proprietory indicator "Trender". Agree Powell speech today is hugely important.
  • #20
  • Aug 23, 2019 12:52pm Aug 23, 2019 12:52pm
Crude had a huge selloff today, with a trigger which it was searching all week. Finally the trigger was China tariffs. It broke below its all important level of $54.80 and is now headed towards $51.0 - $50.50 which is where the next support lay. If that breaks, then an extremly sharp fall may be seen. However that's for later. For now enjoying the ride to $51.0 - $50.50

Look at the trender indicator across all timeframes is bearish

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