(binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont

Waiting for a big whoosh in usdjpy, thought it would have come by 2am... come on

Moving averages lag behind current price action because they are based on past prices; the longer the time period for the moving average, the greater the lag. ... Similarly, upward momentum is confirmed with a bullish crossover, which occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average.19 Jun 2019
Moving Average (MA) Definition - Investopedia (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp

Just had to post this here as someone said they don't... and I lied.

I tell you if I said Donald Trump is the President of United States of America, I 'll be called a liar :-)

What about the Hull Moving Average.

The HMA employs weighted moving averages and dampens the smoothing effect (and resulting lag) by using the square root of the period instead of the actual period itself.

Hull Moving Average (HMA) formula

Integer(SquareRoot(Period)) WMA [2 x Integer(Period/2) WMA(Price) - Period WMA(Price)]

A simple application for the HMA, given its superior smoothing, would be to employ the turning points as entry/exit signals. However it shouldn't be used to generate crossover signals as this technique relies on LAG.

All Moving averages LAG...... That's why you should never use a currency strengh indicator that uses moving averages.

The technical analysis is lag....it's can be useful ex-post to understand some movements of the market but effectively it's useless. Please be sticky in fundamental analysis, that moves the market

What’s better then, Marco? Specifically... how do you use fundamental analysis to make your decisions?

For me, if I know e.g. GBP is weaker than JPY. I spot a pullback and there’s an order imbalance - that’s perfect entry criteria.

Fundamental analysis alone will kill you.

It was just a randon post on moving averages as I was told they DON'T LAG.

Did you need a moving average to figure out if the EURGBP was going to make a new high today.
The GBPJPY was going to drop more. The GBP was going to drop as a whole and move to new lows.
Sorry about the randomness of the post but it was posted for a reason.

Neogeneses has it figured out..

Fundamental analysis alone will kill you..

It was posted as I keep being called a liar and don't know what I'm talking about but there we go, look back over the threads.

GBPJPY
EURGBP
GBPUSD

As my bio says - The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE.

I don't give the whole story here. You have to work out the bits for yourself.

Now a few post back I posted that when the myfxbook changes from sell to buy, do the opposite. May 6th on the GBPJPY.. By using the rules on the first page you would of sold GBPJPY on May 8th and just left it until retail traders started selling it.

They are still buying it now even though it keeps dropping with pullbacks now and again.

My blogger friend said why isnt everyone rich by using your method.

Again my bio tells the story of WHY NOT.

If you took that advice on that date you would be over 15,000 points up.

FIFTEEN THOUSAND POINTS.. And from just one pair.. It will keep you in the massive mega trends like the GBP pairs are having now and cut the others short as the SSI will change quick in pairs that are not in a trend.

So simple and logical.. But to easy for retail traders as they need a magical indicator or EA.

How I said last night how the GBPJPY is highly correlated to the GBPCHF... The GBPJPY was moving up and down last night.. The GBPCHF was moving up.
Wait until the GBPCHF moves down and the GBPJPY will follow. How perfect was that this morning.

There simple - more points and prizes.

I will say it once more..... The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE

He also states why don't I just post every thing here. The numbers, the data so we can all do it.

WHY? You have to figure some things out for yourself to succeed. IS that fair or not?
Why should I take things Ive learnt over 20 years (Due to disclaimers I can't say anymore) and just post it all here.

Take the bits from here, put it together and go research it... Most will waste time on stupid butterfly patterns, pivots, moving average crossovers etc, etc because its easy.

I will mention this here as myself and Davit don't get on... He succeeds in his method. Has his losses like we all do but every quarter he takes out a big fat profit.

WHY DON'T ALL THE FOLLOWERS OF HIS THREAD DO THE SAME... AGAIN ALL DOWN TO IGNORANCE.

Put it the work and figure it out for yourself...

If I found a method using the SSI that had a 100% success rate people will still lose in the long run.. It's all down to being IGNORANT.

Last post for ages as its the weekend and have special visitors coming in a while. The one and only British police... on my request.
But remember no one is going to give you the whole answer..

Does anybody have any EAs/algos on position scaling?

I am keen to implement a system that will scale up when a market moves in your favour, e.g 5+ pips add 1 lot, 10+ pips 5 lots, 15+ pips, 5 lots. Scale out 80% profit at 1ATR, move SL to break even and continue til 2ATR.

Neil, the fact you’ve even posted the things you have is incredible.

I actually wonder what drives people like yourself to share info. Clearly a big degree of kindness as I’ve seen your attention to detail and humbleness in replying to tedious questions, secondly perhaps it’s lonely being successful by yourself?

I am glad you haven’t given all away. It would be undeserved. With that said, given some of the minds in here I think we could strive for absolute greatness with continued collaboration.

Dont neglect the crypto markets also, folks. Easy money to be made there atm.

Hi Neal , do you keep trades open over the weekend when the trend is good?

Just want to say again that this thread is a goldmine for those who have eyes for details and are good at doing there own research, your personal research is what will lead you to find your own entry and exits to any trade[YOUR EDGE].
Special thanks to Neil,the coders and other persons who have kept this thread going.

##Today was another good day to a good week. Good weekend to ALL.

[attach]gbp now.PNG;3409036[/attach

Maybe someone will find this useful, i use liteforex index as my additional confirmation for my strength/weakness combined with Trendstrength-RSI.

These were screenshots taken few minutes ago. Will appreciate more insights to this.
For me this was the basis for GBPJPY AND GBPCHF trades today
Someone may wonder why JPY is red and 14.5, just do the reverse for JPY. its actually 85.5.

Just a quick one whilst got a minute.... Do you want advice like this OR listen to a deranged blogger?

Day Trading With The Sentiment Of The Day - Is it “Risk On OR Risk Off”

Risk off mode.

GBPCHF down 0.74% on the day
GBPJPY down 1.04% on the day

UK economy shrinks for the first time since 2012

FTSE 100 down 0.49%

European markets all down

Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down

RISK OFF SENTIMENT.

Where is the money going.
It begins with a capital J.

Are you to late.... See its not that hard...

The loser here will keep disliking all your posts because he is IGNORANT. Doesnt know his ass from his elbow..

This was known many years ago... And very true to those conventional simple, weighted, or exponential moving averages. But still, a lot of Analytical minds who tried to find a way to improve these things. Such as... T3 by Tim Tillson, Hull MAs by Allan Hull and its variation, some of John Ehlers algorithms; e.g. Deviation Scaled Moving Averages. There's Jurik MAs by Mark Jurik which makes the lag very small if not zero at all. These are great minds... wherein some people are able to benefit and make some awesome tools. Though, I admit there were too much out there that many traders become too dependent on these tools without knowing more of the reasons behind those price movements... Thus, produces misdirected speculative bias wherein the Reason itself is not understanding its own reasons or worse don't know anything all.

This quote from R. W. Hamming applies to the vast majority of indicators in technical analysis. Moving averages, be they simple, weighted, or exponential, are lowpass filters; low-frequency components in the signal pass through with little attenuation, while high frequencies are severely reduced. "Oscillator" type indicators (such as MACD, Momentum, Relative Strength Index) are another type of digital filter called a differentiator. Tushar Chande has observed that many popular oscillators are highly correlated, which is sensible because they are trying to measure the rate of change of the underlying time series, i.e., are trying to be the first and second derivatives we all learned about in Calculus.

"We use moving averages (lowpass filters) in technical analysis to remove the random noise from a time series, to discern the underlying trend or to determine prices at which we will take action. A perfect moving average would have two attributes:

It would be smooth, not sensitive to random noise in the underlying time series. Another way of saying this is that its derivative would not spuriously alternate between positive and negative values.

It would not lag behind the time series it is computed from. Lag, of course, produces late buy or sell signals that kill profits.

The only way one can compute a perfect moving average is to have knowledge of the future, and if we had that, we would buy one lottery ticket a week rather than trade!"

Anyway, the same goes to Market Profile or Volume profile type of tools. Some argued that it also useless as it used the same historical data like any other trading tools (prop or retail). It tracks down your broker's tick (volume) data (in retail standpoint) from filled orders (buy & sell)... They said it is better to use unfilled or pending order data. Again, there are Analytical minds tried to improve these things to find value in Price with these type of tools or data. In Fx Market... inter-market relationships govern currency price action. Therefore, one needs additional work/job in order to understand the data/information as most of these are just offering a proxy for (real) volume but represent only a small fraction of the entire currency market.

IMO: The powerful trading tools out there are Algorithmic Trading tools (with AI capabilities) supported by the latest or advance computing technology that their money can afford... But what I have is a crystal ball ; )─

It's a good book. I might send a copy to the blogger..

Here is one review from amazon.co.uk

I have seen the stops being taken out on charts but never understood why. After reading this book and gathering other information on this subject i believe that all retail traders should be aware of why are we constantly told to use stops by our so called friendly FX brokers\spread betting companies.
Agustin has confirmed that we as Retail traders need to know who is playing the other side of our trades, and my conclusion is that it is not us. we are nothing but the big traders\brokers meal ticket.

Algorithmic trading is dominated by large trading firms, such as hedge funds, investment banks, and proprietary trading firms.

It is the future.. They are available now to all...

But would you buy one or program one yourself?

What do they include:

Macroeconomic news
Fundamental analysis
Statistical analysis
Technical analysis
The market microstructure

They do all that faster then what it took you to see if the FTSE 100 is falling in the London session.

Pure algorithms just like how Google uses algorithms to give you the best search results.

Anyone interested in Algorithmic Trading Software. Take a look at at

algotrader.com
cloud9trader.com/

Only the Long term SSI ones. I can keep them open for weeks, even months depending on what the SSI is... If retail are buying and I have a sell order I will keep it open until the SSI changes. Like the EURGBP one.. Just leave it even through the pullbacks.. This trading isnt for everyone though.

Otherwise I close all trades usually before London closes on a Friday. If there is strong risk on or off like today I will leave them open until around an hour before New York closes..

We must remember the market really is open 24/7 but we can only trade it 24/5.

Who where the winners and losers today.... Oh The JPY and CHF... The good old GBP - Sad times.

Did I mention to see if the EURGBP made a new top before Fridays close.... Well it has... Then again I have no idea what im talking about ;-)

Thanks for the explanation. I short it UJ but not doing doing good now

I will try and explain... You will get used to it by keep practising when and what to buy and sell.

Take your trade. The USDJPY..

It was a good trade if you took it in the London session.. A lot of money was going into the JPY (Risk off)... Panic mode, so pour the money into the safe haven. JPY/CHF or GOLD or all three. So a lot was going into the JPY so the USD which was quiet was falling.. A nice trade.

Through the New York session there was a lot of buying of the USD. So they JPY was strong and so was the USD.

As you might of noticed that is why the GBPUSD started to plummet more in the New York session... Selling of the GBP and buying the USD when in the London session there was a lot of selling of the pound and not a lot of buying of the USD.

First thing to do when trading forex is to look at the currency first... then pair them.. We new today it was bad news for the GBP.. Markets around the world where falling. Risk off. Traders wont take risks so plow the money into a safe haven currency or Gold.. So the best trade was the GBPJPY or the GBPCHF or you could of traded XAUGBP, if you trade gold.

Even though the USDJPY has an SSI of 91% long.... Trade it when you are sure the USD is weak and the JPY is strong.

This is what made the USDJPY rise from its lows on the day because they both became strong... They fight it out in so many words and in the end the USD won. It had more buying pressure.

Neal Thank you for taking the time to explain, well appreciated.Which strength indicator you recommend

Ok, have to go away for a while.... I can't stop laughing... The blogger is over 65 years old and what does he do all day. Post shit. Watch his new video. Must of took him all day..

I find it hilarious he posts crap all day long then emails Twee if I say any thing here and complains and phones the police if I threaten him.... Yes, a person of sound mind. I'll go and see him as I have found out his address but at 65+ years old. Let him have his fun... I'll just keep sending some messages to make him more mad.

I know there are some seriously crazy people out there but OMG at his age. What a life he must lead..

TWEE I just had to... As according to the mad blooger you're my best friend, so you won't suspend me again - WILL YOU ;-)

OH can't stop laughing. I had some funny moments today but that is the cherry on the cake..

I need to go away for a while and chill out..... Before I laugh my self to death ;-)

TWEE JUST BAN ME.... He will stop then and go chill in his chair :-)

To the blogger:
I still read this thread from time to time but I won't contribute anymore. I unsubscribed not because I think this is garbage, there is a lot of rationale behind and I already made decent profit applying this method. You are right, I have 5 months (and counting) of 5minutes historical sentiment and it's very valuable resource for me apart of other datasources I've been collecting for some time now. I unsubscribed from this thread because I'm not willing to be food for your insulting blog posts anymore.

My apologies for disruption to the thread's readers