- #93,022
- Aug 7, 2019 2:33pm Aug 7, 2019 2:33pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,258 Posts | Online Now
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #93,025
- Aug 7, 2019 2:43pm Aug 7, 2019 2:43pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,258 Posts | Online Now
Oops my bad only someone else posted a DX chart and it didn't go down to well. Also i never read any instructions or rules i just trade.
Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #93,026
- Aug 7, 2019 2:48pm Aug 7, 2019 2:48pm
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,258 Posts | Online Now
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #93,027
- Aug 7, 2019 3:47pm Aug 7, 2019 3:47pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,646 Posts
Don't believe me just watch!
- #93,029
- Edited 6:59pm Aug 7, 2019 6:48pm | Edited 6:59pm
- | Joined Feb 2019 | Status: Trader | 121 Posts
Algo BOT is short again so i looked to try and validate the trade. Clearly we are stuck n this range making a fish bone pattern on the daily. Its much safer to trade a breakout of this range rather than trade inside of it. Having said that We already achieved an R2 pivot move this week sending the price back to the MA and making a move to R3 its extremely rare especially when we got such strong resistance level in the 1245 region. In recent months when the euro does make a full S3 move in one week its almost always a short. So it makes more sense to sell than to buy and we still have not achieved a decent correction and a 618 correction of this move up would be ideal.
One more thing IG traders sentiment shows most traders are long so its better to short
One more thing IG traders sentiment shows most traders are long so its better to short
- #93,030
- Aug 7, 2019 8:58pm Aug 7, 2019 8:58pm
- Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,646 Posts
Don't believe me just watch!
- #93,033
- Aug 8, 2019 2:56am Aug 8, 2019 2:56am
- Joined Nov 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,643 Posts
ex nihilo
- #93,034
- Aug 8, 2019 3:22am Aug 8, 2019 3:22am
- Joined Nov 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,643 Posts
ex nihilo
- #93,035
- Aug 8, 2019 3:29am Aug 8, 2019 3:29am
- Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Fundamental & Technical Analyst | 1,910 Posts
Good Morning!
Expectation for a 50 bps cut from FED next month has jumped from 15 to 32.7 % .... that being said a 25 bps cut has 100% expectation and total of 75 bps cut by year end.
Not a good thing for Dollar bulls, even a 25 bps cut in next month could prove that FED may be up for long easing cycle or caving in to Trump pressure... all this points to more EU gains despite of a threat for fresh start of QE by ECB..
Trade Safe
Happy Trading
Expectation for a 50 bps cut from FED next month has jumped from 15 to 32.7 % .... that being said a 25 bps cut has 100% expectation and total of 75 bps cut by year end.
Not a good thing for Dollar bulls, even a 25 bps cut in next month could prove that FED may be up for long easing cycle or caving in to Trump pressure... all this points to more EU gains despite of a threat for fresh start of QE by ECB..
Trade Safe
Happy Trading
Trades technical moves enforced by fundamentals
- #93,038
- Aug 8, 2019 3:46am Aug 8, 2019 3:46am
Good Morning! Expectation for a 50 bps cut from FED next month has jumped from 15 to 32.7 % .... that being said a 25 bps cut has 100% expectation and total of 75 bps cut by year end. Not a good thing for Dollar bulls, even a 25 bps cut in next month could prove that FED may be up for long easing cycle or caving in to Trump pressure... all this points to more EU gains despite of a threat for fresh start of QE by ECB..
So, basically, the announcement of a FED rate cut had the opposite effect in the market. Was it already discounted? Maybe, but i suggest (and others also have said this - Digger especially) that these announcements are just catalysts for the market to move quickly to where it wants to be, and in either direction.
EU longer term trend is still down so, while we may get spikes and movements from Trumps tweets, FED rumours, ECB easing, EU potential recession etc...until the trend changes the overall direction is still to 1.08 and maybe further.
Of course the trend may change before we get there, who knows. Do yuo agree?
It takes time
- #93,039
- Aug 8, 2019 3:59am Aug 8, 2019 3:59am
- Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Fundamental & Technical Analyst | 1,910 Posts
{quote} Could be. I like your fundamental analysis when you offer it. Last week FED cut the rate and the EU dropped 100 pips and it now back where it was and has been for several weeks. So, basically, the announcement of a FED rate cut had the opposite effect in the market. Was it already discounted? Maybe, but i suggest (and others also have said this - Digger especially) that these announcements are just catalysts for the market to move quickly to where it wants to be, and in either direction. EU longer term trend is still down so, while we may...
Hi Mate,
You need to dig in to this rate cut game and understand the market expectation, last time FED cut rate and EU falls why??? because market was expecting not only just a rate cut but also some sort of indication of a start of easing cycle where FED chair poured cold water to it by saying it's just a mid -cycle adjustment and market got disappointed as the 25 bps was already priced in ... anyway then EU moved up when FED chair later clarified that he didn't meant a one cut only....plus EU bulls got more wind with Trump latest drama.
Last of all... a rate cut is not just simple as it is... you got to understand the market expectation as well cause they are real game changers not the Central banks...
Market = You and I , all of us
Happy Trading
Trades technical moves enforced by fundamentals