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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #81
  • Jul 29, 2019 2:35pm Jul 29, 2019 2:35pm
Hi Igrok,
At what level of S&P500 would you start to short?
May be 3100?
Thank you


Quoting Igrok
{quote} I would short the CFD indices... ahead of 28000 on the Dow to target 22700 initially... on Forex I would buy EUR/USD at around 1.035-1.4...
  • #82
  • Jul 29, 2019 7:10pm Jul 29, 2019 7:10pm
Equity indices are asymptotically approaching what might be local or absolute tops. This week's data and fed actions could determine if advances continue toward 28000 Dow or if absolute tops begin forming. The chart is D1 Dow YMU9 contract.
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  • #83
  • Jul 30, 2019 3:12am Jul 30, 2019 3:12am
Quoting marcb
Hi Igrok, At what level of S&P500 would you start to short? May be 3100? Thank you {quote}
I would use DJIA chart as an indicator and to sell S&P based on the Dow level...
  • #84
  • Jul 30, 2019 12:34pm Jul 30, 2019 12:34pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I would short the CFD indices... ahead of 28000 on the Dow to target 22700 initially... on Forex I would buy EUR/USD at around 1.035-1.4...
What about shorting JPY pairs again?
  • #85
  • Jul 30, 2019 2:24pm Jul 30, 2019 2:24pm
Quoting Argo
{quote} What about shorting JPY pairs again?
jpy crosses don't look bearish to me...
  • #86
  • Jul 31, 2019 2:02am Jul 31, 2019 2:02am
Keep in mind that there are better signals which can be used:

The best indicators for important Highs or Lows of the Stock Market are the spreads:

Highs: Spread of the 10y-2y T-Notes
Lows: High Yield Spread

Sixer
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  • #87
  • Jul 31, 2019 3:47am Jul 31, 2019 3:47am
Update of post #30: Earnings 2019

Sixer
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  • #88
  • Jul 31, 2019 5:05pm Jul 31, 2019 5:05pm
Dow 27400 is looking more like a possible ceiling. The chart is D1 Dow YMU9 contract.
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  • #89
  • Aug 1, 2019 7:37am Aug 1, 2019 7:37am
Quoting timingchain
Dow 27400 is looking more like a possible ceiling. The chart is D1 Dow YMU9 contract. {image}
doesn't look this way.... major flat tops/bottoms just don't exist...
  • #90
  • Aug 1, 2019 12:54pm Aug 1, 2019 12:54pm
Gold starting to tell a story? I think 1412 is critical if it holds the upside target is 1700, flight to safety ???

The bears are rushing in on the Dow but I think they may get a poke in the eye I think we are still in a bull market ...review if we go 26463
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #91
  • Aug 1, 2019 4:10pm Aug 1, 2019 4:10pm
The chart is D1 Dow YMU9 contract.
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  • #92
  • Aug 1, 2019 10:05pm Aug 1, 2019 10:05pm
Quoting timingchain
Dow 27400 is looking more like a possible ceiling. The chart is D1 Dow YMU9 contract. {image}
New tariffs on China announced today. Anyway, IDK if that July high will end up being a top, but we can't declare the up trend to be over yet. August is an unlikely month for big bear moves without some big geopolitical or economic event to drive it. It could just be the next sequential wave forming. Be patient and watch how the indices unfold in September and going into October.

BTW, be careful of using a single futures contract as a proxy for the index (or for spot prices). The charts will look similar but they are not identical and they may give different signals. The tail does not wag the dog.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #93
  • Aug 1, 2019 11:56pm Aug 1, 2019 11:56pm
Quoting Trainman
{quote} New tariffs on China announced today. Anyway, IDK if that July high will end up being a top, but we can't declare the up trend to be over yet. August is an unlikely month for big bear moves without some big geopolitical or economic event to drive it. It could just be the next sequential wave forming. Be patient and watch how the indices unfold in September and going into October. BTW, be careful of using a single futures contract as a proxy for the index (or for spot prices). The charts will look similar but they are not identical and they...
To quote myself: '...approaching what might be local or absolute tops', '...a possible ceiling' I made no statement that a top has been set.

I keep running charts on 3 index futures and the same real-time actions during regular trading hours.
  • #94
  • Aug 6, 2019 9:53am Aug 6, 2019 9:53am
Just following a bit of news...

  1. Nomura's propriety sentiment data shows a "deterioration in supply demand for equities and a sharp downward break in fundamentals" among big players in the market like hedge funds.
  2. The market plunge could arrive as soon as late August, Nomura predicted, as trend-following algo traders still have many bullish trades to unwind.
  3. They are warning the next sell-off could resemble a crisis-level plunge like the one that followed Lehman Brothers' collapse.
  4. Nomura is basing its view on data showing hedge funds fleeing the market and said more are set to exit when their algorithms are triggered by rising volatility.

source: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/06/nomura-a-second-market-sell-off-could-be-lehman-like.html

Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #95
  • Aug 8, 2019 4:24am Aug 8, 2019 4:24am
You need to calm down, a lot of measures have been in place since Lehman, CB will step in and intervene when necessary. It would be cold in hell before another unmanaged crisis as you mentioned
Just my 2cents

Quoting Trainman
Just following a bit of news... Nomura's propriety sentiment data shows a "deterioration in supply demand for equities and a sharp downward break in fundamentals" among big players in the market like hedge funds. The market plunge could arrive as soon as late August, Nomura predicted, as trend-following algo traders still have many bullish trades to unwind. They are warning the next sell-off could resemble a crisis-level plunge like the one that followed Lehman Brothers' collapse. Nomura is basing its view on data showing hedge funds fleeing the...
yakinaja.hajarblehh
  • #96
  • Aug 8, 2019 7:51am Aug 8, 2019 7:51am
LEIs Index Update:

The index is nearly one percent lower but still positive.

Sixer
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  • #97
  • Aug 9, 2019 9:42am Aug 9, 2019 9:42am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} no need for a wild imagination... something like that had already taken place before... here is the NIKKEI 250 historic chart... January 1990 - top at 39260.0... March 2009 - bottom at 7021.3... drop - 82,12 % in 10 years... at that time, in the first half of 90's, Japan had the second largest economy in the world... besides, do you realize that I have been a professional trader and a capital manager for 26 years and might know the difference? {image}
Technically, from top to bottom was nearly 20 years rather than only ten....just saying....
  • #98
  • Aug 9, 2019 12:30pm Aug 9, 2019 12:30pm
Quoting Igrok
... nothing has actually changed much in the US economy since 2008-2009...the Dow has quadrupled in its value since 2009 bottoms despite the economy is not in better shape today that it was back then... {image}
That's true,.... provided you don't look at unemployment, or consumer spending or GDP or consumer confidence or basically any other economic indicator.....

As a professional trader and capital manager for 26 years, surely you can't believe that?
  • #99
  • Aug 11, 2019 2:18am Aug 11, 2019 2:18am
This my actual Elliott count for the DJI since the beginning of 2018.

Sixer
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  • #100
  • Aug 11, 2019 5:11am Aug 11, 2019 5:11am
hi Igrok, in your opinion do you think we will see a new hi in DJIA prior to your descending forecast ? i.e do you see another opportunity for accumulating short positions either euqal to or better than your prior estimate ? this question comes in alignment with enough people being on the wrong side of the trade to cause the emotional response warranted for your prior target objectives.
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