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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #61
  • Jul 20, 2019 4:04pm Jul 20, 2019 4:04pm
Quoting timingchain
I was caught with gold futures longs in '80 when panic selling drove the futures limit down for a few painful and costly days. I was too much of a newbie to have an Exit Plan B ready to go. Well, that's how we learn.
What sort of Plan B exit would you use for stock indices these days?

SP500 futures have a daily limit AFAIK, but I don't know whether MT4 brokers offering US500 CFDs would enforce daily limits or not. If they do not, such CFDs might be subject to wild excursions as panic selling spills over from the futures markets. Something to look into.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #62
  • Edited 2:32am Jul 21, 2019 1:59am | Edited 2:32am
Plan "B":

Exit now and Wait until wave "2" (red) is finished.

Sixer

Edit:
The Dow Transport Index as frontrunner will guide you
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  • #63
  • Jul 21, 2019 10:23am Jul 21, 2019 10:23am
An outline of the problem:

Exit Plan A: Close early--don't be on the track when the train arrives
Exit Plan B: If acting late, acting fast may be better than slow. If caught by circuit breakers, try options, CFDs, and ...

Entry Plan A: Watch charts and indicators carefully, enter gradually until confirmation shows; use futures, options, CFDs, ...
Entry Plan B: TBD

Sixer: The Dow Transport Index as frontrunner will guide you.

Watch the exchanges for circuit breaker rules.

A lot remains to be done expanding on these and monitoring developments. This thread looks like a good venue for doing so.
  • #64
  • Jul 21, 2019 12:39pm Jul 21, 2019 12:39pm
Doesn't look too bearish to me, just a normal retrace ?

27021 is support but below could scare the bulls I think 26982 might create more selling but I would need 26422 to consider a possible trend to the downside.

Easy to fall for the hype, so many charts and opinions say we are heading to ARMAGEDDON, I remember the hype in 2000, computers will crash, we will never be the same, all hell will be apon us.....blah blah blah

My upside target 30,000 + but I reserve the right to change my view as the "charts" unfold.
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #65
  • Jul 21, 2019 1:26pm Jul 21, 2019 1:26pm
Quoting sponge
Doesn't look too bearish to me, just a normal retrace ? 27021 is support but below could scare the bulls I think 26982 might create more selling but I would need 26422 to consider a possible trend to the downside. Easy to fall for the hype, so many charts and opinions say we are heading to ARMAGEDDON, I remember the hype in 2000, computers will crash, we will never be the same, all hell will be apon us.....blah blah blah My upside target 30,000 + but I reserve the right to change my view as the "charts" unfold.
This is from a long term perspective. For me, it comes from the unstable global economic condition--unprecedented debts that cannot be repaid. That would lead to massive wealth destruction. Maybe this year, maybe next, maybe...
  • #66
  • Jul 21, 2019 1:53pm Jul 21, 2019 1:53pm
Quoting timingchain
{quote} This is from a long term perspective. For me, it comes from the unstable global economic condition--unprecedented debts that cannot be repaid. That would lead to massive wealth destruction. Maybe this year, maybe next, maybe...
Yes maybe but maybe not.

TC, I have the same concerns as you but after many years looking at the markets I just use the charts to guide me. If had relied on the hype I would be broke!!

We don't know the future, if like me you are over 60ish then nothing is making sense anymore

All us oldies can do is hope it's going the right way.

Good luck
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #67
  • Jul 21, 2019 5:40pm Jul 21, 2019 5:40pm
Quoting sponge
{quote} Yes maybe but maybe not. TC, I have the same concerns as you but after many years looking at the markets I just use the charts to guide me. If had relied on the hype I would be broke!! We don't know the future, if like me you are over 60ish then nothing is making sense anymore All us oldies can do is hope it's going the right way. Good luck
A couple of years ago I listened to the hype on silver and took a serious beating. What added to the pain was knowing I should have known better!

When the markets talk, listen. Do your own analysis. Ignore almost everything else.

I might be running a decade or so ahead of you. ~tc
  • #68
  • Jul 22, 2019 1:12am Jul 22, 2019 1:12am
Quoting timingchain
{quote} A couple of years ago I listened to the hype on silver and took a serious beating. What added to the pain was knowing I should have known better! When the markets talk, listen. Do your own analysis. Ignore almost everything else. I might be running a decade or so ahead of you. ~tc
I think everyone's ahead of me in this game ha

Have a look here tc, free analysis under products tab covers the indices.

https://www.investtech.com/main/market.php?CompanyID=10400521&product=211
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #69
  • Jul 24, 2019 2:41am Jul 24, 2019 2:41am
Has a Dow correction started ?? Check the McClellan Summation Index and the Gann Info form OM !

Sixer
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  • #70
  • Jul 24, 2019 2:57am Jul 24, 2019 2:57am
Quoting Sixer
Has a Dow correction started ?? Check the McClellan Summation Index and the Gann Info form OM ! Sixer {image} {image}
Certainly looks toppy on that chart, I have next Monday 29th for a turn, recent turns dates have been quite shallow.

Just my 2p
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #71
  • Jul 27, 2019 12:09pm Jul 27, 2019 12:09pm
Quoting Trainman
I'd like to invite discussion on ways us traders can profit when this event comes.
Buy far out OTM puts on spy for pennies on the dollar. However this then adds the element of time, which isn't as big of an issue if you are shorting the outright
  • #72
  • Jul 27, 2019 7:28pm Jul 27, 2019 7:28pm
Quoting 1qaz2wsx33
{quote} Buy far out OTM puts on spy for pennies on the dollar. However this then adds the element of time, which isn't as big of an issue if you are shorting the outright
Indeed, this is a great strategy if you can get the timing right. Especially deep OTM puts that are close to expiry. I did precisely this during the Dotcom boom -- my puts increased by more than 10x in less than a day. I shoulda taken the money. Ended up holding for too long and the market took most of that back.

Stocks, unlike Forex or commodities, are mostly a one-sided investment, meaning that investors and traders predominantly take only long positions. That means that when volatility spikes and investors get nervous they get nervous about price dropping more than they get nervous about prices going higher. So during uncertain markets, puts tend to cost more than calls. I've wondered if you could create a "synthetic put" by using calls and shorting the underlying. For example, sell the SP500 index and buy SP500 calls to protect the short sell in case price goes up. You could then sell puts at a premium to what you bought the calls for, pocketing the difference. Then just carry everything to expiry -- either the put or the call will be in the money, you don't care which, since you are completely covered. This method requires heavy capitalization though. I discussed the use of options to protect naked futures contracts (instead of having a lot of cash in the account to cover drawdowns) with my futures broker and he said "no way". He said that they don't have a way of locking an option to an open futures contract to prevent it from being sold without simultaneously liquidating the futures contract. So if your futures contract is drawn down you have to maintain enough cash in your account to cover it, even if you are holding an option whose "marked to market" value is adequate to cover it. That was a long time ago though, so perhaps the situation has changed since then.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #73
  • Jul 27, 2019 9:15pm Jul 27, 2019 9:15pm
Quoting Igrok
DJIA and S&P have reached their new historical highs yesterday... for the Dow it means that the bullish wave that started forming on December 26, 2018 and which bottomed out at 21712,5 is gonna be the last one on its predominantly bullish historical chart... so. the market is likely to reach its absolute top before the end of this year... most likely even before the end of September, 2019... from that point it is quite likely to turn around and to target the lows of 2009 once again thus reaching 5000-5500 (tel:5000-5500) level within...
I disagree. The U.S. economy fuels the stock market, not a chart. The economy is in great shape. Yes, we will see it slow down and maybe even drop, but assuming the worst when times are good?
  • #74
  • Jul 28, 2019 2:44am Jul 28, 2019 2:44am
Here is the bullish outlook by using the Delta cycles - based on this, the correction (L-5 Low) will be finished with a rate cut of the Fed !?

Sixer
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  • #75
  • Jul 28, 2019 11:06am Jul 28, 2019 11:06am
Quoting Sixer
Here is the bullish outlook by using the Delta cycles - based on this, the correction (L-5 Low) will be finished with a rate cut of the Fed !? Sixer {image}
Nice! Do you closely follow the Delta cycles? I did some research on them some time back but never traded using them. Isn't there a super LTD cycle, something like 19 years? I wonder what part of that cycle the stock market is currently in.
Sure I have a trading plan. Buy low. Sell high. What's yours?
  • #76
  • Jul 29, 2019 1:31am Jul 29, 2019 1:31am
Copan (Matrix cycles) offers a 19 years cycle solution (MC5) - i havent`t seen an Ultra Super Long Term solution for Delta.

Sixer
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  • #77
  • Jul 29, 2019 3:19am Jul 29, 2019 3:19am
Quoting MoneyEyes
{quote} I disagree. The U.S. economy fuels the stock market, not a chart. The economy is in great shape. Yes, we will see it slow down and maybe even drop, but assuming the worst when times are good?
I hope the overwhelming majority of the market participants shares your views on this issue now and will continue doing it for a while in the near future... this is the way I usually make my profits...
  • #78
  • Jul 29, 2019 3:23am Jul 29, 2019 3:23am
the MOT on the DJIA at 27250 has been reached finally.... now it's likely to extend the gains further towards 28K the figure...ahead of there it's gonna be the strongest sell in a century...
  • #79
  • Jul 29, 2019 11:30am Jul 29, 2019 11:30am
Igrok, what is the best play you can think of? Option?
  • #80
  • Jul 29, 2019 12:24pm Jul 29, 2019 12:24pm
Quoting fastrackfx
Igrok, what is the best play you can think of? Option?
I would short the CFD indices... ahead of 28000 on the Dow to target 22700 initially... on Forex I would buy EUR/USD at around 1.035-1.4...
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