The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Your choice of EU is good. It is better to be a super-specialist. It is a good symbol for selling options.
Anyway, nobody can become a multi-million millionaire if the trader has no money raw material to run the financial trading machine. It is a fantasy. whether you trade fx spot or fx options, as long as you enjoy doing it, it's fine.

A kind of time & sales for MT4?


Hello dear subscribers,

Our project # 6 is about improving the probability of winning in the forex market from 1:19 with data from the futures market to possibly 1: 6. Today I would like to introduce a kind of time & sales list for the forex market. The idea to create a time & sales list for the MT4 was born when I started drawing in my resistance zones in the tick charts. However, this presentation can only use the data from the forex market and is therefore not comparable to a real time & sales list from the futures market.

Our project # 6 will deal with the largest currency pair in Forex (EURUSD) and Future (Euro FX E6). The best-known currency futures contract is the Euro FX Futures, which is listed on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and can be traded 24 hours a day in electronic Globex trading. The ticker symbol is 6E and in this foreign exchange future, the euro is traded against the US dollar. The quotations are made with five decimal places, thus e.g. 1,12770 USD for the dollar. The smallest price change, a tick, is set at 0.00005. The tick value is 6.25 USD (0.00005 USD * 125.000 EUR / Lot.

First let's look at a time & sales list in future market (Euro FX E6).



On Friday evening we had some volatility, on the left side you could clearly see the Time & Sales list. Any small $ 0.00005 change will result in a tick. In addition, the list also shows the number of traded lots at the respective price level.

In the futures market we get clear information about the number of participants and the number of traded lot. Although there is no allocation how many lots each player deals within a given time, there is a trick, however, how to recognize the big players anyway. But I will go into that in more detail in the next few weeks, when we take a closer look at the future data. In addition to spoofing identification, there are historical volume levels as well as high frequency trader algorithm tracking. In the last few days I was able to clearly identify and take some breakouts before they took place. These are the topics for the next weeks.
In contrast to stock trading, the Forex market does not take place at a central trading venue. Therefore, the volume can not be measured with standard tools on the stock market. If a trader buys a single share, then this corresponds to a volume of 1 in the order book of the respective stock exchange. However, this is not possible in currency trading designed for global trading. As a consequence, the volume can not be measured in terms of the number of shares acquired, but only by summing up all the price changes recorded during a fixed period. For a price change in a currency pair, a certain number of completed transactions must be determined. The volume is a popular instrument in the technical analysis of markets, as it offers an additional dimension in the analysis of the price development of an asset. It helps to determine the strength of price movements. If a price movement is accompanied by a proportional increase in volume, it is considered more important than without. Traders will have to wait until the end of the day for accurate volume counts. However, there are other ways that traders can determine the market volume, e.g. with the tick volume or with the number of price changes. A rapidly changing market price can be an indicator of high trading volume. Therefore, a tickchart in the forex market is the only alternative to get as close to the volume as possible.

Since we do not receive any lot in the forex market, our self-made time & sale list is no concrete statement about the traded lot. If you run my idea of the time & sales list in the MT4 over a tickchart, they come a bit closer to the volume. The best data is the stock market data, but this is a short-term alternative in the forex market.

Let's take a closer look at the idea.

If we take a closer look at a 1-tickchart in forex, we will notice that no real candles are formed. The chart shows only a few lines that have a different price structure. The question was, with which indicator we are able to combine these individual lines. If you use a regular Bull Baer indicator, it will not work. So we need an indicator that includes in its calculation the close of the previous candle to make a candle out of two strokes. One solution is the Heiken Ashi calculation. The disadvantage of this indicator is that it smoothes the individual values. However, the smoothing in a 1 tickchart is not quite as dramatic, so that good values can still be achieved.

The idea was simple, we create a second MT4 with a 1 tickchart into which the Heiken Ashi indicator comes in. For all traders who do not have a tickchart available, it is also possible to operate the Heiken Ashi in a 1 second chart. However, the values in the 1 second chart are much slower and less accurate. For this I have created a video.



In the upper 16 Tickchart the Bionikcandles were used. At point A you will find the Heiken Ashi in the 1 tickchart at point B you will find the Heiken Ashi in the 1 second chart. On the right side is the Time & Sales list from the futures market, where I have only made visible the number of traded lot in the futures market. We have to keep in mind that in the futures market a tick starts at $ 0.00005, while in the forex market a tick starts from $ 0.00001. Within the same period, there are significantly more ticks in the forex market than in the futures market. First of all, please pay attention to the difference between the 1 tickchart and the 1-second chart in connection with the course price. At first, the price goes down, there is a short pullback and then another price down.



In the video you can see that the 1 Tickchart works much faster and cleaner than the 1 second chart. In the process, bearish or bullish investments in the market can be detected very quickly. Likewise, the volatility is relatively easy to detect. If the ad moves faster, the volatility increases. When the price goes up, you can see in the ad exactly the bearish objection that come in during the price. Pay close attention to the different circumstances of the bulls and bears. From this you can make assumptions, but the main decision to open a trade should always result from your strategy. In the past I have marked my resistance zones in the 16 tick chart. Once the uptrend came into my zone, the ad has often served me well. However, one has to keep in mind that the price often goes beyond the resistance zone, catch the trader's stops and then starts a stronger downtrend.

If you want to work with this indicator, you must first create a tickchart or a seconds chart in a second MT4. The indicator is then called in the offline chart. You can find more information in this blog. If you do not like the set color, I recommend Maroon and DarkGreen. Zoom out the chart as far as you can. Then you just have to place the tickchart under your main chart and you're ready to go. Another indicator (Toggle Borders) with which you remove the frames, you can download at the end.

Please note once again that this is not a specific time & sales list from the futures market. We have no concrete volume of data in the Forex market that we can access. But with this view we have the chance to roughly estimate the buy and sell orders that are currently coming onto the market. In addition, we recognize very quickly when there is high volatility in the market.

I once listed an example of what that might look like



Under my 16 Tickchart I inserted the Heiken Ashi, there he shows me very quickly the different trends. In an extra MT4 1 Tick Chart is the fast passing Heiken Ashi. In the video you can see how the course first goes up, then forms a small equilibrium. In the 1 tickchart heat Ashi, we quickly realize that strong bearish moves are coming in, signaling a possible downward trend.

This is just an idea that may possibly help one or the other trader. I recommend trying this indicator for yourself first and warn against making trade decisions. Maybe we have an alternative here, the 1 Tickchart is in the Forex market clearer. The values in the Heiken Ashi are slightly smoothed, so that not every tick is displayed correctly. However, the benefit of smoothing is that you do not see every little change in price. This creates a better picture. The indicator is not developed by me, but I adapted it for this project.

If the idea brings you further, we look forward to your feedback.



The next week, we look at the methods, you can use to look closer into a forex candle.

I wish you a nice weekend greetings

hello sir...i have a question about that kind of candles ...a candle without pullback ...that candle it's a puzzle ...whats that mean a candle without pullback in a hard market the sellers and buyers fight ech other ...how is that superman ?!! he can Passes a quantities without any pulback ..is it Normal that kind of candles ....Is that also a coincidence ??i find that you considered a candle with less pullback as a powerful candle ...is that right and why ?

[quote=thelord14;12394546]hello sir...i have a question about that kind of candles

Hello the lord14,



First let's compare your chart with my H1 chart.

We notice that your candle does not contain a pullback, while my candle has a small pullback. This is because the brokers pass on different price positions to their customers and it also comes due to the time difference to different candle formations. Basically, we have to assume that many traders in Forex market, especially in smaller time units, receive different candle information.

Let's come to your chance discovery. One speaks of chance when an event is unpredictable, when it is not deterministic. Science was originally operated to suppress chance. Today, however, we know that chance is an indispensable and fundamental part of nature. Unfortunately, the course is unpredictable and thus the formation of candles is a coincidence. You may have noticed some similarities over the past few weeks, and you are now creating a policy. Personally, I find that very dangerous because trading often involves a lot of money.

Let's return briefly to the construction of the bionic candle.



At point A and B you will see a standard candle on the left side and next to it the representation of the Bioniccandle. While you get several movements with four pieces of information (OHLC) in a standard candle, the Bionicchart only has two movements with three pieces of information (HLC). The open can often be estimated from the close of the first candle. Gaps between the candles are not relevant to me. But if you look for gaps between the candles, you should also pay attention to the gaps in the candles, which in my opinion are just as important. However, one can often not recognize them in a normal chart.

A trader needs to gather a lot of information within a day. With the Bionik candle I have reduced this flood of information a bit, because you can identify only two movements. At point C you can see the gradations of each bioniccandle. Underneath you will find a table about the respective candle strength at point D.
The bullish bioniccandle eliminates the lower wick. If in this candle the high and the close are on a price level, then it is a strong candle for me. The bearish Bioniccandle eliminates the upper wick. If in this candle the high and the close are on a price level, it is also a strong candle. The pullbacks have a much better significance for me than the actual main movement, I have already written about them in great detail in many posts. I am very happy that you are interested in the Bioniccandle, but I strongly recommend that you read this blog thoroughly. Within this blog you will find many examples of bioniccandle, the genesis, the strength and the possible conclusions that can be drawn from it.

This blog now contains over 300,000 words, which corresponds to about three books. I know that this is very tiring and time consuming, but you should keep in mind that this blog is absolutely free for you and you also get many great ideas from our Subscriber.

I wish you a successful day
best regards

Footprintchart in the forex market?


Hello dear subscribers,


The identification of many resistance zones was made significantly easier and clearer with the use of the developed Bioniccandle. In contrast to the Renkochart and Heiken Ashi who smooth the course, the Bioniccandle shows the same course as a candlechart only a little clearer, since the Open was omitted. There are a maximum of 2 movements in each candle, the main movement and if the price does not close at high / low, additionally a pullback from high / low to close. The pullbacks within a bioniccandle have so far been more crucial than the main move to identify a possible turnaround.

In Project No. 6, we first test whether the detailed data from the futures market is useful for making trading decisions in the forex market. So far, the results are very promising, but the price movement in the Forex market is much finer, since a tick is $ 0.00001 and the future market is $ 0.00005. The price developments of both markets run almost parallel to each other, the reasons for which I have already described in detail. Post 967.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post12383408

Before I created my own blog at FF in January 2018, I spent many years visiting FF on a regular basis and noticed the professional contributions of a very creative programmer Hanover. This post by Hanover and some other professional traders was the reason why I opened a blog here. I was particularly proud when my post received 967 a Like from Hanover. This may seem ridiculous to many, but I appreciate the work and opinion of Hanover very much. Although Hanover has been somewhat withdrawn for a year, his work is still cult and a benchmark for many successful traders. So I can be very proud of a Like.

As I only trade in the forex market because of the much lower risk, the data from the futures market is very valuable, but I wanted to check first whether a cluster chart (footprint chart) also works in the forex market. From the pure logic ago, that should not work, since the Forex market does not provide Lot, which are needed among other things to the calculation of a Footprintcharts. The market offers some footprints for the MT4, I chose the most effective one and bought it. The advertising sounded promising at first.

There are 6 criteria of cluster generation:

 

1. Time interval, the criterion is set in seconds.
2. Price range, the criterion is set in points. The current cluster is closed when the deal price goes beyond the specified price range. In that case, the current deal is included in the current cluster, while the next one opens a new cluster. The range is calculated as the difference between the High and Low price in the cluster.
3. The difference (delta) between buy and sell volumes. The current cluster is closed when the delta with the next deal exceeds the specified volume. The next deal opens the next cluster.
4. Total volume of deals. The current cluster is closed when the total volume of purchases and sales in the cluster exceeds the specified volume after one of the deals.
5. Number of ticks. The cluster is formed by the specified number of ticks.
6. Deal type. A cluster is formed by deals of the same type.

There are 7 types of cluster representation:

 

1. "Delta" - display the delta.
2. "Delta %" - display the delta as a percentage of the corresponding ASK or BID volume.
3. "BID + ASK" - display the sum of BID+ASK volumes.
4. "ASK & BID" - display the ASK and BID volumes separately, the ASK volume is drawn in the upper half of the cluster cell, the BID volume is drawn in the lower half.
5. "BID x ASK" - display the ASK and BID volumes separately, the ASK volume is drawn to the right, while the BID volume is drawn to the left of the cluster center.
6. "Delta and BID+ASK" - display the delta and the sum of BID+ASK volumes.
7. "Delta% and BID+ASK" - display the delta as a percentage and the sum of BID+ASK volumes.

YuClusters features built-in volume filters, indicators of cumulative delta and weighted average price of the cluster volume.
YuClusters has a powerful system of alerts, which can be set to events related to clusters, volumes, prices and built-in indicators.

In the interbank market, there is no concrete volume, but only approximate values, since I use a very good ECN broker, I was sure to test that this advertising promise of YuClusters with the help of the data from the futures market. Of course, these are two different markets that are difficult to compare, but as the markets are linked by swaps, it should be possible.

On the right side you can see the Euro FX E6 in the 5 minute chart showing the Bid & Ask Delta Histogram. The left number shows the number of bearish lot, the right number shows the number of bullish lot traded within one price level. In addition, there is a graphic display that is shown in red and green.

On the left side you see the indicator of YuClusters, which also represents a kind of delta histogram. Maybe the ticks in Forex can be used to find out how often the price reaches a certain price level. Basically, the structure is already a special programming performance, the result is the deciding factor.

Since about 90-100 times as much money is spent in the Forex market as in Euro FX Future, the numbers in the cluster can not be lot. However, since no lot is published in the forex market, I would like to focus less on the numbers in this comparison, but on the specific relationship between bid and ask.



Here you can see the indicator in the forex market at work. Among them I ran the Heiken Ashi indicator as a kind of Time & Sales list, which I posted on Saturday.



On Friday the 19th of July at 20:05 CET there was another quick move down. On the pullback of the Bioniccandle, it can be clearly seen that the first move at point A was significantly stronger than the move at point B. The candle at point C then continued the uptrend. Let's compare these three candles in the forex and futures market as an example.



We start with Candle A. On the left side is the cluster in the forex market. The high was 1.12243 and the low was 1.12127. Overall, the range had a movement of 11.5 pip. On the right side is the cluster in the futures market. The high was 1.12750 and the low was 1.12640. Overall, the range had a movement of 11.0 pip. (It should be noted that these are different reviews.) In the first moment, the motion sequences seem to be of a similar nature, although you can already see significant differences in the representation of the clusters.



In the second candle, the movements in the futures and forex markets are very similar. While the forex market gained 10.1 pip, the futures market was 11.0 pip. Although the numbers in the clusters differ significantly, at first sight the distribution of the bid and ask seems to be very similar.



The range in the upward candle is similar with 6.9 pip in the forex market and 7.0 pip in the futures market. The distribution of bid and ask are similar in nature, but they deviate slightly more in the middle.



If we compare the respective candles from the forex market and the futures market, we will notice that there are some strong deviations and that the candles under point B are the most similar. For this reason, we will examine these two candles closer.



To get a rough overview I added together the bit and ask values and created a table. At first glance, the course seems to be similar, you could see that already in the overview of the candles. But unfortunately that's only half the story. In 16 Tickchart you can see exactly the course of the candle. After the first bearish momentum, a strong bullish movement arose, which was then almost completely pushed down again.



First, I transferred the respective cluster values of the forex market and the futures market into a file. There were more price levels in the forex market than in the futures market. I have set the zones with the highest volume as the center and used this to create a table. In this overview it becomes clear that the differences within the candle are serious. This candle is a bearish candle that has a slightly larger pullback than the previous candle. In the Delta Histogram the forex market it looks as if the bulls had a clear advantage in the middle of the candle, at the highest volume. With this information, many in the forex market might have gone long.

The Delta Histogram on the futures market shows that just before the highest volume was reached, the bulls had the upper hand for a moment, but after the highest volume was reached, the bears were significantly stronger again. Shortly after the highest volume, the bulls spoke again and press the course up at the end. With this information in the futures market, one would have been much more cautious about entering into a long trade.



With the different attitudes in the futures market it is possible to look even deeper into the candle and determine possible imbalances. You can also see the number of trades that are responsible for a certain number of volumes. These are all important pieces of information to avoid being misled on the wrong track.



The information from the YuClusters indicator is a very interesting alternative within the forex market. However, the indicator uses the incomplete volume data available in the forex market. This is partly misleading, which is ultimately not the fault of the indicator, but is the faulty volume. The information you get with this indicator is much better than a normal candlechart. So I do not regret my purchase. However, basically, I can not make a clear recommendation for it because our volume data is inadequate. The advantage of the indicator, you can first download a demo version and test without time limit. If this indicator does you any good, you can still think about whether you're ready to pay $ 55 for it. YuClusters is also available for the MT5, for that I would rather make a recommendation, because the indicator uses the exact stock market data. With $ 55 it is much cheaper than other suppliers of footprints, but I have not tested the MT5 version yet. There is also a demo here.

Finally, we realize that many false data from the Forex market are responsible for giving us a flawed market picture. If you trust this data and trade, you have to expect to lose. This makes it clear that we can not do without the important future data in the long term.

And that's exactly what we'll be dealing with for the next few weeks.

best regards

LOL, you flatter me sir, I'm merely an old-time programmer who dabbles in trading as an occasional hobby. I post my opinions here, right or wrong, just like everybody else. My subscriber count merely reflects the length of time I was around here, and is a total embarrassment to me.

It makes sense to me that footprint charts get you closer to the 'real action' that drives the market -- liquidity imbalances at different price levels -- than standard candlestick charts. Of course spot FX is more difficult because the market is decentralized (making it near impossible for the retail trader to get comprehensive volume information); is potentially swayed by the actions of a cartel of large trading banks; and the available instruments are highly correlated (the lower the degree of correlation, the better diversification tends to work). Anyway, I'm nearly repeating statements that I've made many times before.

This is a huge thread with much good info, I will read it more intensively when I get some spare time.

Meantime I wish you good health, great success in your trading endeavours, and much happiness.

David

Hello David,

Thank you for your compliment, I was very happy about it. In addition to your incredible ability to program, I think you have a great deal of knowledge about the markets and their relationships. Which impressed me that in the many years you tried to help everyone without being bossy or arrogant. And that is a feature that is rarely found in FF today. I never had the feeling that you are putting yourself above a person. You also helped me once, even though you had more important projects during this time.

I use this blog as a kind of development diary and realize that I look at things differently today than I did many years ago. This chronological and comprehensible development is a decisive step for me to progress. After having dealt with the stock market data a few months ago, I noticed how little information we receive in the Forex market. Now we have to dissolve and sort these data so that they give us exactly the information needed to derive concrete trading decisions. But even the best information from the stock market is of no use, if we do not interpret and implement them correctly.

I would like to thank you again for your compliment, because I now know that we are on the right track. But we are just beginning and it is still a lot of work. I am very motivated to take this step with all the great subscribers who creatively support this blog.

If we were to get lost in this blog, everyone would be happy to receive a small and brief hint from you.

I wish you all the best from my heart

Michael

Thank you Michael, for this information-rich thread and excellent work.

Hello Khalil,

Thank you for your kind words, I was very happy about it. We have a commonality that unites us: we are both very creative. I'm impressed by your work and what you do to get on with it. In addition, besides having a high IQ, you have a very high emotional competence. After my Oracle certified master, a year ago, I first understood what data a MT4 processes and outputs. It suddenly became clear to me that it would be no use developing the best indicator. As long as the basic data received from the broker are incorrect or incomplete, you will not get to the target. Although the forex market is one of the most difficult markets in the world, it offers a great deal of security for most traders as their account can not go down. At the same time, the chances of winning are highest here. I would like to take a path that, in my opinion, has so far received little attention. With the right stock market data, we have a realistic chance to move forward in the opaque forex market. I'm less interested in the money that I can earn with it. The key is the challenge of finally being able to work with real data in order to make the right decisions in a parallel world. Maybe this could work, we will see.

All the best, Michael

Michael, congrats on making it to the Oracle Certified Master.

I done mine a while ago in 2002. Make sure you scan it in color; in case you loose the original through *family related* matters

[quote=alphadude;12398939]{quote} Michael, congrats on making it to the Oracle Certified Master.

Hello alphadude,

I did that at that time, thank you very much for the tip. If you have an account with Oracle, you can download it again and again. If you have mastered in 2002, your programming skills are certainly already very professional. I just wanted to have basic knowledge to figure out what's behind the indicators. Actually C++ is closer to MQL4 / MQL5, but for the beginning Java seemed a bit simpler. While there are no pointer arithmetic, goto statements, anonymous enumerations, or multiple inheritance, the order of ordinary statements (arithmetic, logical, binary) is the same as in C++. Unfortunately, you can not build independent applications in MQL4 and MQL5, because each language is connected to its corresponding platform. That would make a lot easier, but you can not have everything.

But to be as professional as Hanover, Nicholishen, Swingrader, palpite, FerruFX, cja, MathTrader7 or honestknave I would need decades of practical experience. Surely I've forgotten many good programmers now. We are now focusing on our next project: to become more successful in the forex market with the information from the futures market. That will be a good deal of work.

Unfortunately, the program I work with does not allow any programming intervention, so I think MQL5 may become an alternative for me in the future to get the data that I think is important. But that will take a while.

I wish you a successful week
best regards

Project 6 Forex & Future


Hello dear Subscriber,

Dark pools are bank or exchange trading platforms for the anonymous trading of financial products that are traded outside the open securities trading of the stock exchanges. The dark pools include areas such as Forex (Spot Currency Trading) and CFD (Contract for Difference). Dark pools are not subject to the rules and supervision of the European stock exchanges. There is no transparency in these markets. In the LIT market or light pool market, which refers to the ECN stock exchanges, there is an order book that will be published for everyone. This market allows traders to see the amount of liquidity.

Worldwide, there are about 70 exchanges, the ten largest produce a daily turnover of $ 800 billion. It is estimated that about $ 1.6 trillion will be transacted every day on all stock exchanges worldwide. The darkpool of the forex market converts about $ 5.4 trillion daily. Thus, the stock exchange has a share of about 25% of the total turnover (forex and stock market). Most of the trade is thus via the unregulated stock market.

Since the dollar is involved in currency trading in 88% and the euro in 38% of all cases, EURUSD is one of the most traded currency pairs in the Forex market and Euro FX in the futures market. Adding up the daily flow of capital in both markets adds up to $ 1,718,750,000. On average, Euro FX trades 150,000 Lot a day, making the futures market just 1%. That means the EURUSD is almost 100 times bigger than the Euro FX. 99% of the market is not regulated by stock exchanges and only 1% of total turnover gives us specific stock market data. Actually, it would be unwise to assume that one could use the Euro FX stock market data to make specific assumptions about the EURUSD forex. However, since the EURUSD is linked to the Euro FX via the swaps, this assumption is not entirely outlandish.



In my post 967 forex versus future, I made a candle comparison between the two markets and found that the movements are almost identical. I have already explained the reasons for this in detail. Next, I wanted to know how the markets relate to each other in a very small amount of time. Since the ticks in the forex market are significantly smaller than in the futures market, I had to make an adjustment for a comparison. In the following video you will see on the left side the futures market in a time unit of 4 ticks and on the right the forex market in a time unit of 16 ticks.



At first, the course was in a small equilibrium and then went down a bit. Interesting, but not surprising, is that the two courses are almost parallel even in a very small amount of time. This information has given me another reason to be more involved with this project # 6.

I would like to give a brief explanation of our upcoming project no. 6.

The goal is to match the forex data and future data so that it is possible to trade more successfully in the forex market due to the better information of the futures market. While in the forex market about 100 times as much money per day is converted as in the futures market, the profit opportunity of 1:16 is significantly smaller than in futures market with 1: 6. The attractiveness of the forex market is much higher and more interesting, but also more risky. As we have noted, this is due to the insufficient data provided in the forex market. In project # 6 we want to try to use the advantages in the futures market to realize higher profits in the forex market. Please note that this is only a project and not a recommendation based on futures data to trade in the forex market.

In addition to a MT4 with its own generated indicators, I have selected one of the best platforms for the futures market, which I think is currently available. ATAS is a professional trading and analysis platform for order flow and volume trading and offers many features for quick and easy market analysis: time and sales, level II data, current and historical volume levels, and HFT algorithm tracking. The platform prepares raw order flow data to present it to the trader in an intuitive manner. The range of functions includes very good filter options as well as flexible and dynamic setting options. The analytical tools of the platform significantly enhance the information content of the raw market data, leading to a comprehensive view of the market and, subsequently, improved trader performance.

I provide this platform with a data feed from CQG. CQG has the advantage over Rithmic of adding the volume data in a new CME data format. However, the datafeed from CQG is also significantly more expensive than Rithmic.

In the last few days I have set up and adjusted my screen settings for project number 6. In addition, I have been more intensively involved with ATAS and I still need to optimize a lot in this area to get the information I expect.

Let's take a look at the three different screens. The main screen is a combination of futures and forex data, one screen dedicated exclusively to the futures market, the other only to the forex market.



This is my main screen for our project.

A
Here you can see a graphic resolution of a 1 tick chart from the futures market. The size and color of the bars clearly shows the lot traded in the market.

B
In the following overview you will find a footprint in the 512 tick chart. This footprint chart displays the imbalance. The stacked imbalance is the volume of bids on a price level with the volume of requests, after the one-level higher price. Unlike Standard Delta (which compares bid and ask at the same price level), bit / ask imbalance allows us to highlight the volume imbalances in each spread above the price bar. An algorithm compares the different volume / price ratios and then highlights these imbalances in color. Another algorithm shows on the chart individual large market purchases and sales, the so-called aggressive trades, which are executed on a large scale at one go. I can choose which volume is crucial, and also configure by bid and ask.

C
The two-color bars indicate the size of the bid and ask for each 512 tick bars. Below we see statistical data for each bar. In this case, the size of the Bid and Ask, as well as the Sessions Delta (volume - volume of (contracts / lots / shares) traded in this bar / candle.) On the left side is the Bid / Ask volume of the current week.

D
Here we find a 16 tick chart in the forex market with the bioniccandles. Above and below the zigzag lines, you will find the average pip size of each candle within each trend. From the Daily open there is a range up and down.

E
Here we see the order flow from the order book, but the resolution here is a bit clearer. The larger the number of the Lot, the larger the circles. Smaller Lot are shown as points only. Thus, smaller volumes are better filtered out.

F
Here again we see a tick chart with the smallest resolution of the single lot. In the time & sales list, this lot is partially summarized or added. A better overview is possible with this representation. On the right side we find the market depth.

G
Here in the forex market is the indicator in the 1 tickchart, which should represent the Times and Sales List. In the Post 982 you can download the indicator for the MT4.

Here is a short video to see how it works



We see the screen is an interesting combination of futures and forex market.



Let's move on to the second screen, which contains only data from the futures market.

A
In the classic variant of the well-known tool, a dealer sees a job flow that is divided into parts (eg, a market order of 100 lots may be displayed as 100 separate prints). Such a display method makes it almost impossible to read the tape since the number and speed of the solder is very fast. There are several ways to group the incoming ticks (large numbers of separate limited prints) to fully see the market orders. There is also a volume filtration system. This allows you to see what traders are doing with different capitalization at all times.

B
In the following overview you will find two footprint charts in the 512 Tick chart and 2048 tick chart. This display also shows the imbalance and the big trades. The time units correspond approximately to the M8 and M30. On the left side is the daily volume with val1, val2 and POC.

The order book is relatively simple here on the right is the daily volume and the weekly volume. In the DOM you will find the bid on the left side and the ask on the right side.

C
A big problem is so-called spoofing. Many traders use the Oder book to determine the level of greater buying or selling interest. Larger dealers often place orders in the market and thus deceive a buying interest. Just before the limit order is picked up, it is deleted again. Here we see exactly these deleted orders and immediately learn at what level a spoofing has taken place.

D
Here are the limit orders waiting to be executed. The graphical overview is very clear and there is a graph of the first ten limit orders. It is a mistake to assume that these limit orders represent real market transparency. In addition to the factor spoofing, where orders were deleted shortly before, spoofing also works the other way. Shortly before the execution additional limit orders are given up. However, this can be seen immediately under point C. The market, however, is determined by the market orders and the triggered stops of the dealers.

E
Here we see the bid / ask volume of the current day.

F
Here we see the executed orders in Bid and ASK

G
The current price table, the coloring represents the range of the current day.

H
The total volume of the current day

I
The total volume of the current week

It is not surprising that many traders in Future Market work exclusively with this view of the DOM, because the daily and weekly volumes make it easy to follow the course of the candles.

I have created a short video here to illustrate the functionality.



The market was not so volatile at this time. The Time & Sales list was relatively easy to read. It becomes problematic in very volatile phases, but the settings are still adjusted. Overall, the clarity is very accurate.



Finally, my personally created dashboard, which should primarily show the strength of the euro and dollar. There are also other important information for me. This data relates exclusively to the forex market.

A
Here the green line shows the strength of the euro and the red line shows the strength of the dollar. Now I do not want to go into detail about the indicators, as I have posted them on this blog a few times.

B
Here we find my built Time & Sales list in the 1 Tickchart again.

C
This is all about the currency strength of the euro and the dollar. Green stands for the strength of the euro red for the strength of the dollar, in all time units.

D
In the 64 Tick Chart, we see here a range indicator that distinguishes the skin movements from the pullbacks and presents them in a 100% range chart. I also posted this indicator already.

E
Here we find a daily overview in the 4096 Tick Chart (comparable to the H1). In addition, some strength indicators were added.

F/G
Here I get information about the price, spread, time, volatility, the time overview of the largest stock exchanges, as well as a calendar for the most important meetings.

With these three charts, I would like to compare the two markets over the next few weeks and optimize my personal strategy. Surely the charts will change dramatically over time as they have to be adjusted daily within the optimization.


Equilibrium, the key to success.

The market equilibrium is defined by the intersection of market demand and market supply curve. At the equilibrium price, the market is vacated, i. the quantity of goods offered corresponds to the quantity of goods demanded. At a higher price, the supply would be higher, but this quantity would find no buyers. Conversely, the demand quantity is greater than the supply quantity if the price is below the equilibrium price. In the case of an imbalance, undercutting or overcalling processes are set in motion by the providers or buyers, who still want to get a chance. In the undercutting process, those suppliers whose costs are higher than the new price are excluded from the overbidding process whose customers are willing and able to pay less than the increased price. At the same time, the suppliers are increasing their offered quantity with rising prices and the demanders are increasing their demanded quantity with decreasing prices.

A market is a trend after which equilibrium is created. After equilibrium, the trend continues or the trend direction changes. On the pullacks that form within a trend, I have now deliberately renounced. Within a trend, there are one or more strong major movements, then exhaustion and possibly absorption.

Equilibrium does not necessarily have to be created between different trend phases, in addition, the market consists largely of a sideways market. And exactly this market situation is for me a very interesting aspect, with which I will deal again in the next few weeks.

As soon as a trend has reached its exhaustion phase, an equilibrium or possibly a sideways market is usually created. A very interesting point is the absorption, which of course you can already see in the candles, but then it is often too late. Let's say, a course is going up a lot and eventually comes a period of exhaustion. The market initially moves sideways. Suddenly, strong buy orders come in, but they only change the price marginally. That could be an indication of absorption. Many big players first collect larger orders before pushing the price down in one fell swoop. As soon as they have collected their necessary folders, the course will be pushed up again to trigger the sellers' stops. As a result, the course shoots straight up. After that, the big player pushes the price down, because the fewer traders on the flight down, the better for the big player. And that is also logical, the many sellers that are already in the market, no longer help the big players to drive down the price, but they can only harm the big player. When the big player drives the price down, many small traders will exit this way to realize their profits. If many do that at the same time, that stops the course. Therefore, the big player has to push everyone out of the market before. Then the way down is a bit freer.

This absorption is to be identified in the futures market, it is not easy but it is possible. By setting a 1-tick chart, only one trade is shown to me. With that, I am able to recognize relatively quickly whether there are 10 Lot or 100 Lot in this trade. This could identify the big players. In addition, the order book and the time & sales list help me a lot. The most important point is the price change and a sense of the market. In the last week I was able to identify and take some breakouts in advance. Trading a breakout is one of the toughest and most dangerous challenges besides the pullback trade. The advantage: It is fast in and out again.

Basically, you never know how much market movement is created by ten lot, but you can determine a rough average value, which does not always help in the trade. It is crucial to identify a trend and then to recognize when this trend is exhausted. Another very interesting aspect is to put yourself in the position of a trader. Create a typical chart in the M15. There we build the most popular trader indicators. MACD, RSI, Stochastics, Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci. This makes it even easier to estimate the possible stops of many traders. Or check out FF's chat, there you'll even find current stops in your currency pair. This helps in analyzing whether a big player might trigger a high number of stops.

The data from the futures market, especially processed with Atas, are already a clear advantage over the data from the forex market. But the biggest challenge is the interpretation of the recorded data. And we know, you can interpret each number differently.

If you give up a large ask order in the market, you buy the dollar and at the same time sell the euro. Maybe the course goes down. To get out now, I have to sell my dollar and buy euros at the same time. This means that the price can rise. An increasing price can therefore be triggered by two different market behaviors. A market participant who has set on a falling course wants to get off now. Another market participant who believes the price will rising, buys the euro and at the same time sells the dollar.

Of course, one could now assume that both market participants are right. The one who leaves the falling course may assume that the price can not fall further. The other market participant, which is on a rising course, expects the price to go up. For me, the distinction is already very crucial, but it is very difficult to find out the concrete.

Many market participants see this situation as a market recovery and bet on bid. The market trader who traded down and got out might have wanted to realize his profit and try to push the price down again after a pullback.

Behind a tick is always a buyer and a seller, we just have to find out who is the stronger of the two. With the data from the futures market, we already have a much deeper insight, but this is far from a guarantee to win.

In the next few weeks I will check to what extent the data from the futures market is useful for the forexmarket. I would like to emphasize once again that this is a project and not a recommendation. I'm very curious what comes out of it. Of course, I will regularly post the latest findings to you.

I wish you a great weekend.

best regards

60% better trading in the forex market?


Hello dear subscribers,

In today's article, we want to deal with various information that we receive in the forex or futures market. This information is hugely important as we derive our trading decisions from it. So we have to be careful to get only information that is correct.



In my post 906 and 907 we have already talked in detail about the three different data available to us in the Forex market. (Time, OHLC and Volume)
Over the past few days, I have compared the price of the EURUSD Forex with the Euro FX from the futures market. We found that the price trend is almost identical. We can assume that the OHLC and time data in the forex as well as in the futures market are represented very accurately. Provided that your broker transmits this price data without manipulation. Result: In this area, the futures market does not differ from the forex market. About the volume we have already spoken in great detail. In the forex market, it is not possible to provide a specific volume throughout the day. After the day is over, the forex market subsequently provides the specific volume, but then it is often too late. The volume refers to the number of lot, that are calculated on the bid or ask. Although the volume in the Forex market is already approaching the volume of the futures market a little, in the course of the day it is an estimate. In the futures market, in addition to a precise volume, there are also the number of traded transactions. This is important for the identification of big players, although the larger trading businesses usually run on market order.

If we now compare the forex market with the futures market, we get only 2.5 correct data from four important data in the forex market, while we have all the important data in the futures market. In the forex market, we therefore achieve a data efficiency of 62.5%, while we achieve 100% data efficiency in the futures market. This is an increase of 60% over the forex market and the reason for our project number 6.

While we have three dimensions in the forex market, of which one dimension (volume) provides insufficient information, the futures market has four dimensions. Today we want to take a closer look at these four dimensions.



As soon as I create a chart in the futures market, I have to choose a dimension. This dimension is fixed and thus the three other dimensions are variable. When I choose a standard Chart M5, I choose the dimension of time. That means each candle is rebuilt after 5 minutes, and the data OHLC, trades and volume are subordinate and variable in their values. In the forex market, I have to choose a tick chart to be closest to the volume. In the futures market, I am now spoiled for choice, which information has the highest priority for me. In the stock market I only get these four values Time, OHLC, Trades and Volume. There are also delta, reversal, range candles and much more, but these are calculated from these four values. Likewise, there are indicators that show the speed of a candle, but this calculation is also created using these four values. First let's look at these four values in the chart.



Here we see a normal time chart M20 in the futures market. A footprint chart showing the imbalance in the price is shown. In the lower area you will find two indicators. The upper area shows the number of Lot (volumes) traded within 20 minutes. The bottom indicator shows how many trades were completed within 20 minutes. Time is the set value. The size of the candles (OHLC), the volume and the number of trades settle this fixed value of time. That means they have different values.



Here we see a Renko chart in Euro FX. The value has been set so that the main movement of a candle is at least / at most 6 ticks until a new candle is formed. This means all candles have a major movement of six ticks. Of course, the high to low can be different in size, the decisive factor here is only the main movement. The three other dimensions, such as volume, trades, and time, reorder and achieve different values. The two lower indicators may look like they have the same values, but that's not the case.



Here we see a 1024 Tick Chart in Euro FX. This means that after 1024 trades a new candle will be formed. We see, the lower indicator always has the same values, the last value could not close the 1024 trades, since Friday night closed. Again, the three other dimensions are subordinated again.



Here is a 1600 volume chart in Euro FX. This means that once 1600 lot have been made, a new candle is formed. In the upper volume indicator, we can clearly see that it is always a fixed value. As always, the three other dimensions are subordinated and each receive different values.

It is not possible to define two fixed values within the four dimensions. We always have to make a decision about what is important to us. However, this is a little different in the futures market than in the forex market. For example, if we choose a time chart M20, the volume and trades indicator gives us the option of displaying the respective values. Since we have no concrete volume values in the forex market, it is much harder to get clear and clean information.

It will be interesting for the next few months to find out how to coordinate these four dimensions to obtain crucial information. The presentation of the Bioniccandle should also be an interesting aspect.

First let's look at the leverage effect in the futures and forex mart.

In the financial sector, leverage is used to increase investment through debt and minimize the use of equity. The ratio of debt to equity (leverage) is the formula for the so-called leverage effect, with the more debt being used, the greater the leverage.

If a company, an investment or a fixed asset is described as "highly leveraged", this means that more debt than equity capital is used. If the investor succeeds in using the leveraged debt in such a way that its return is higher than the interest he has to pay for the debt, he has successfully traded. However, this also carries the risk of being unable to repay the debts incurred.

The use of a lever serves the following basic purposes:

Extend the investment size of a business or private investor and generate return on venture capital. In particular, the return on equity (ROE) and earnings per share (EPS) are to be increased.

Trading with a lever allows the trader to trade high sums with a low deposit in the live account. Levered trading is also known as margin trading. As a trader you can deposit a small amount with a broker and then borrow money from the broker to open a higher position. This allows the trader to maximize his profits. Conversely, however, potential losses can be maximized.

Many traders would call the leverage" loan", the broker would grant to their clients. This is not entirely true, since the lever does not share the properties of loans. If you trade CFD with leverage, no one expects you to repay a loan. You only agree to close the open position again or to hold it until it is done automatically by a margin call. A deadline does not exist and there is no interest to pay. Instead, swaps are raised when positions are held overnight. Unlike loans, these swap payments can even be profitable for the trader.

It is not easy to set the right lever for your trading, as it always depends on the individual strategy of the trader and his overview of the markets. As a rule of thumb you can say: the longer you intend to hold your position, the lower your lever should be. Long-planned positions are usually opened when large market movements are expected. And since you do not want to be stopped out by market fluctuations, especially in such, you should not exaggerate the leverage. On the other hand, when positions are opened that are expected to last only a few minutes (or seconds), traders prefer to use large leverage to maximize profit over a very short time, even with the smallest of price fluctuations.

Let's take an example of three different market participants. First of all, we have the non-professional forex trader, who is subject to ESMA regulations in Europe. He can act with a maximum lever of 1:30, but also microlot are possible. Then we have a standard account in the futures market, which in principle every trader can conclude. Here I have a standard lever of 1: 250 in Euro FX, but the minimum bet is 1 lot. At the end we still have a professional account in the forex market. Just 4% of all traders in Europe fulfill this requirement. There is a standard lever of 1: 400, it can also Microlot be traded, and if you're very lucky, there is no additional funding. This means the account can never go to minus, due to an uncontrolled breakout.

Let's take a closer look at these three different market participants.



In the upper part, we find that when it comes to security, there are only two alternatives and these two alternatives can only be found in the forex market. Although the chances of winning are significantly lower there, with the data from the futures market we want to drastically increase the chances of profit in the future.

Now, for fun, we trade in the futures and forex market. Of course, there are different prices in both markets, but the price movements are identical, so for our example, let's just assume that we have the same prices in both markets. We are entering at a market price of 1.12525, our stop is 1.11515 and our target is 1.11575. We assume that this trade goes smoothly and we reach our goal.

The non-professional trader from the forex market has the same risk-to-reward ratio as the professional trader: 1: 3.6. Now many will think: This bill is not right. The stop was 1 pip, the profit was five pip, which is a risk-reward ratio of 1: 5. What was forgotten here is the cost of the spread. If I'm stopped, I'll have to pay the cost of the stop plus the spread. In this case, we had $ 14 risk to win $ 50. And that's a risk-reward ratio of 1: 3.6 at least that's my basis of calculation. The risk-reward ratio in the futures market is a bit smaller.

Crucial for me is another value and the ratio of profit to margin. As we all know, most traders get leverage from their broker and have to deposit a margin. This margin is a kind of risk capital. Now the question is: what is the return of my risk capital? And here there is a clear winner, the professional trader in the forex market. From 250 € risk capital, he makes 50 € profit while the future trader comes to a return of 12.5%. Since the non-professional trader has to provide a higher margin, the return here is only 1.5%.

But the calculation is not quite correct, because you are liable not only with your margin, but at least with the capital in the account and even beyond. With a leverage of 1: 250, the margin is $ 500 to trade 1 lot ($ 125,000) in the futures market. It's about the specific risk that I went in to win this $ 62.50. No matter how much money is on my futures account, I am unlimited in my private wealth. So far, there have been some major crashes within the stock markets, you always have to expect that there can be another crash. In principle, a crash would not be a problem if you were also able to manually exit at the moment, but unfortunately there are in a sharply falling market few buyers who are ready to buy your lot in the moment. From this risk perspective alone, the forex market is the only alternative to rationally protect its capital.



In the following case, we assume that four times the capital of the required margin is in the brokerage account. In the futures example, that's $ 2,000, although I've already written that making an under $ 30,000 account in the futures area makes no sense. This is just an example. We have already determined that the future market is not an alternative in terms of safety.

So let's take a look at the three examples below within the forex market.

In the first example, a trader who has $ 100,000 on his forex account trades $ 100,000 for a total of 1 lot. He does not need any money from his broker. His profit is $ 50 for which he has risked $ 100,000. Of course, the EURUSD would have to fall to $ 0.1, which seems impossible from today's point of view. However, since there are $ 100,000 in the account, the forex account is also the liability capital. As a result, you would risk $ 2000 to win a dollar. This corresponds to a return of 0.05% in relation to the risk.

The participant, who is subject to the ESMA regulations, reaches with a leverage of 1:30 after all with $ 266 risk 1 dollar profit and comes thus to a yield of 0,38%.

A professional trader in the forex market, who trades with a leverage of 1: 400, in this case with a risk capital of $ 20, a profit of $ 1. The effective return is thus 5%.

I know that's a very unusual approach, so I'd like to say a few words about it. I think that beginners in the forex market are overwhelmed with a high leverage, because many are driving inappropriately high stakes and can quickly destroy their capital. However, I am a professional trader who has been trading in the forex market for many years. For me, a high lever is a low risk because I could trade the same position even without levers. But I do not do it to minimize my risk.

Why that is so I would like to explain. Suppose I trade a lot and use $ 100,000 in equity. Now there is a big crash like in Euro Swiss Francs. 2000 pip, the price goes down until the stop is triggered. Then I make a loss of $ 20,000.

In the second case, only $ 1,000 is in my account, I'm trading again with a margin of $ 250. In the case of the Euro Swiss franc, the price is again 2000 pips against me. Then my $ 1000 is gone and that's it. That's a difference of $ 19,000.

Since I act sometimes with more than 10 Lot, everyone can quickly figure out that this approach is very interesting. Basically, I recommend only to act with a high level of leverage, if you can afford it and have enough experience. My approach should also not be a call to act at high risk.

For the broker, the lever is an interesting business. A lever of 1: 400 means a four-hundred times higher fee for the broker. No matter if we trade only with our own money or get a lever from the broker, the spread is always the same. Interestingly enough, many brokers allow trading only with margin, you do not have to say anything more.

In certain circumstances, a high level of leverage is even very safety-oriented. It is always a question of view. Of course, in the case of a loss with a lot and a high lever, the money is faster away than with a smaller lever. But if I acted without leverage, my money would be gone just as fast. And in case of an absolute fall, I would not have any security.

It does not work in the futures market, I liability with my entire fortune. Many claim that a professional trader would only trade in the futures market. Maybe you will see it now with different eyes. That's one of the reasons why I'm not afraid of trading because what can happen to me? In the worst case, there are a few $ 1000 gone, but we also have to be fair to offset the odds we have in this market. In that sense, I am very happy about the ESMA regulations, because it protects our hard-earned money in the Forex market, there can not be anything better.

And if we manage to use the data in the futures market for the forex market, we have killed 3 birds with one stone. We have improved our profit share, can make significantly more profits and have a high level of security. We will see if it works.

I wish you a successful week

best regards

Information about currency pairs

Hello dear Subscriber,

I've come across a very interesting site over the days that looks very good at first glance. I found the presentation of how individual traders are positioned in the different currencies very interesting.



Here's an example of this morning 8:00 CET. Nearly 70% of traders believe the price is up. Right next to it you can see today's price performance. On the side is also the recommendation given, since most traders are wrong in their assessment, one should assume exactly the opposite. I thought that was funny.



These and some other indicators can be downloaded from the site and used in MT4. I tried that too, it works and the indicator runs in the background.



Interesting on this page are also the assessments of different price developments and the latest news. Take a look around yourself and form your own opinion. I've also seen that there are services that you have to pay for, so be a little cautious and take a closer look. Nevertheless, I believe that some information can be quite helpful.

Home
https://de.fxssi.com/


indicator
https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio

I wish you a successful week.
best regards

hi Michael,

First of all, I will like to commend for your generosity and the mind-blowing project you a carrying out in this thread. Your work is about revolutionized the financial market. Your in-depth research and approach to supply and demand system of trading are the best I have seen. while am fascinated with your work, I have also spent countless days and hours going through your project and findings. And I believe you are that close to unearthing the holy-grail of trading.
However, if one can determine from one candle the number pips in the pullbacks-wicks/shadow alone (up/down wicks) of a candle, as well as separately determine from one candle the number pips in the body(of a candle) open/close.
By so doing one can determine the true force of a candle and clearly see the true strength in a candle as well as to knowing who is clearly in charge, whether is the bear or the bull.
Because this vital information will be very powerful and effective at equilibrium zone in combination with density histogram/Bionic power.

Many thanks,
Boby

[quote=bobydegood;12419607]hi Michael, First of all, I will like to commend for your generosity and the mind-blowing project you a carrying out in this thread.


Hello Boby,

Welcome to our blog and I feel very honored by your compliment. This project was created as a trading diary and should reflect the different perspectives on the market. At the same time I hoped to meet like-minded people interested in and participating in such a project.

What I am very pleased about is the fact that you have dealt with it in detail, it shows your great interest in supply and demand. Whether my view of supply and demand is right, I do not know, but it works for me and maybe it helps many others.

To revolutionize the financial market will not work in the long term because our brains are not working at 100% efficiency. Elon Musk is currently researching a neurallink that is supposed to be an interface between the brain and the computer. Our cognitive thinking is superior to any computer, but with an extra AI interface, our brain would be superior to any computer. Anyone who would trade on the exchange with such an interface would have a massive advantage today. One would be able to match 1000 information within milliseconds and could control his trades only with the thoughts. But even this technique would have a half-life.

In the early days of the stock market there was only one day candle on which the speculators could orient themselves, but if one sees today the footprint charts or the equilibrium charts of the high-frequency traders this is a huge step forward. The one who uses the technique first has a small advantage, but everything that succeeds is copied. And after some time, when everyone works with this technique, the market is back in balance. And a market must always be in balance to function in the long term. To get a tick on the stock market there must always be a buyer and a seller. If all traders are just on the bid side, nothing would happen.

The problem is the erroneous information we receive. Unfortunately, the volume calculation in the forex market is insufficient.



In the upper area we see the EURUSD H4 at the bottom of the Euro FX. It is the same price. The blue arrows mark the highest volume value within the visible period. If both volume information is correct, the question arises, which information do I use to gain an advantage? About the volume we have already talked extensively in this blog.

The Holy Grail exists, it is in our heads and is a trading style that is tailored to us personally. Risk, psychology, technology, fear, greed, perseverance, loss, money management, and many other factors must be tailored to our needs. It's like a racing car that's tuned exactly to its driver and able to correct certain mistakes.

The Bioniccandle has the advantage of making only 2 movements out of 3 movements without altering or flattening the actual candle, as e.g. at Heiken Ashi. That means the information is reduced to the point. Our brain has to absorb and process 1/3 less candle movements. My principle is as simple as possible, and the stock market is anything but easy.

I am delighted if this information will help you to develop a trading style that will help you and bring you more profits than losses in the long term. I'll keep my fingers crossed and thank you for your kind contribution.

best wishes

hello sir thanks for those good information but i have some question
1 - what we need information from footprint and forex market ?
2- i didn't find any indicator showing the number of traders ...can you show me how you got that indicator?

Hello thelord14,

In the forex market it is unfortunately not possible to get the number of trades or the specific volume. This information is only available through real stock market data. The indicator you mentioned comes from the platform ATAS, which is able to process the stock market data in a special way. The platform costs 70 euros per month or once 2,500 euros. Additionally you need a datafeed from the stock exchange. A pure data feed can cost a few 100 € per month, via a broker, it is usually cheaper. With a demo account I would first check whether the stock market data brings you an added value. If this is the case, you will have to reckon with about 100 € extra effort per month. However, this is an amount that is unreasonably high for many traders.

I hope I could answer your question and wish you a successful trade week

best regards

addendum:

Within Project No. 6 I will pass on specific recommendations for individual test runs. I would like to gain some experience first, before commenting on individual results.

best regards

Anniversary 1,000 posts

Self-employment in the forex market


Hello dear subscribers,


In early January 2018, this blog was launched as a kind of trading diary. The goal was to explain myself my own trading style, to learn to correct mistakes and to develop myself further. That's why it's not uncommon for me to have a writing share of 66.6% on this blog. With over 300,000 words we could already fill 3 books. During this time I have posted over 90 interesting indicators, over 1000 images and 5 completed projects including the Bioniccandle. The 6th project has already started and seems to be the most important project. In 19 months, over 95 subscribers have joined this blog. Quit pro quo, is my motto, I am ready to share my knowledge, even if you are ready for it.

At this point, I would like to thank all subscribers and former subscribers who have brought this blog forward. I am very proud of the fact that more and more a group of great different people from all over the world is forming in this blog, which receives and shares information. That's exactly the goal of moving forward together. I am particularly pleased that this blog is friendly, open and fair. In the beginning, I have also been in other forums to find like-minded people for this blog, but I now think that sometimes less is more. Of course, we are happy when other subscribers share the idea of supply and demand and come up with ideas. This blog is a kind of buffet, there are many different dishes that do not suit everyone. But nobody is obliged to try everything. You get the best out and you're satisfied.


On the occasion of the 1000 contribution in this blog I would like to write today about the independence of a Traders. Maybe they are now changing from amateur to professional. The difference between the two is that the professional lives off his job, while the amateur has his cost of living regulated by other income.

Annotation:
This text was a bit more difficult for me in the translation, I ask for leniency, if it comes to misunderstandings that I like to clean up.


Why do you want to become a trader?


money

The financial industry is the industry that makes the most money. Hourly wages between $ 50 and $ 500 are not uncommon and thus guarantee an above-average quality of life, which in this form is reserved for only a few people. Many people dream of financial independence. But most people do not achieve this independence, because it does not allow the job situation in most countries. Here, the financial market offers excellent prospects, which can be achieved with an efficient way of working. However, the stock market is one of the most difficult markets in the world.

life quality

Everybody dreams of things he could not afford in the past, such as a car, home, vacation, jewelry, fancy food, beautiful clothes, expensive leisure activities. Few people get the chance to achieve this because they are hindered by social norms in their professional advancement. Then they lose the desire for a career someday. However, you also have to be prepared to work harder and more strategically.


fun

There is nothing better in life than to practice a job in which growth rates are automatically preprogrammed, where there is no unemployment and people are rewarded for what they do. This brings freedom and independence and a lot of fun.


open time-management

As a full-time trader you should complete a weekly time of about 60 hours. This means you work either 5 days á 12 hours or 4 days a'15 hours. With open time, you decide when to start working, take a break, end your day, and when to spend your weekend and vacation. 60 hours a week is only an approximation, to become successful in the long term as a trader. So it's just a matter of efficiency, because there are people who can do it in 40 hours.


high reputation

Many people dream of becoming a doctor, lawyer, stockbroker, judge, pop star or actor in order to enjoy a high reputation in public. The stock market offers in public an excellent platform for high reputation and recognition.


recognition

It has been proven that people receive too little recognition in their work and leisure activities. While the supervisor usually lies in wait and seems to be waiting for mistakes in order to blame you in front of others, you will immediately receive your confirmation or blame in the stock market.

leisure

On average, Europeans work 250 days a year, although there are small differences within each country and region. This means that you not work for 115 days to enjoy your free time and vacation. If you divide your life into work, leisure and sleep, you will find the following: for the work you have an expenditure of 8 hours which is the pure working time. There are also breaks and possibly overtime and the commute. Overall, this results in a complete time of about 11-12 hours you have to calculate for the work. Within one year, this results in approximately 2,900 hours of effort for your work, in individual cases, of course, more.

365 days by 8 hours of sleep are also about 2,900 hours. The remaining 2,900 hours remain for family, leisure, body care, food, etc. This means you spend a third of your life on work, one third with leisure and one third with sleep. Because you do not consciously experience life in your sleep, it means: Your conscious life is 50% work and 50% leisure. Depending on your life situation, you have to deduct at least 50% of this free time, which you need for private obligations. So you may only have 25% of your free time (sometimes much less) available for recreation and with the financial resources also different ways to spend your free time.

It would be nice, however, if you could turn your hobby into a job and thus pursue an activity that you do not necessarily feel as work. Now, if you're ready to do more work, believing that you'll have to sacrifice a lot of free time, that's only partially true. After all, leisure is not a question of duration but of intensity. It always depends on what time frame and what kind of leisure activities you want to pursue. How many times have you been bored in your free time, because you may have lacked the financial resources to engage as you would have liked?


Motivating workplace

When working at home, often eliminates a costly and long journey. You are flexible with the establishment of your workplace and can thus ensure a comfortable atmosphere.

independence

The word says it clearly. You decide for yourself what you think makes sense in your life. However, the word independence means having to kick your ass. This requires a personal responsibility for his job and his personal success. You decide yourself where to prioritize. You will not be patronized by an unpleasant boss who only works for his own wallet. Self-employment makes you independent and gives you the feeling of freedom. However, you must be willing to fight hard for your success.

security crisis

The financial services market is one of the most expansive markets in the world. Double-digit growth rates in the area are completely normal. They work in a non-cyclical market as the markets interact. For example, if one particular market weakens slightly, other markets will increase sales. We work in the largest market in the world, money is always exchanged.


entrepreneur

As an independent trader you are an entrepreneur. You receive significant tax benefits and are exempt from social security in certain countries. Your taxes will not be deducted from earnings as usual. Some do not have to pay the overpaid taxes in the form of a wage tax compensation, but at the end of the year pay the maximum tax due to the tax office. As an entrepreneur, you can deduct things tax that are not possible for the simple salary recipient, eg. Your office, brokerage, your computer equipment u.v.m. However, you have to generate revenue for it.

Of course, it is nice as a trader to take advantage of the pleasant pages and thereby push the unpleasant side. But to become successful and to remain so there are conditions for traders that are not to be talked away.


Prerequisite for success


No 40 hour week

If you want to be successful, you must be aware that you can not cope with this with 40 hours. Certainly it depends on the type of activities that you can do within a certain time frame. However, you will not know a tax accountant, solicitor or entrepreneur who has succeeded in spending less than 50, 60 hours of work per week.

It is a question of efficiency and the willingness to spend, if necessary, in one week the time required to achieve the goal. So it can happen that you have to work 70 hours in one week and 50 hours in the next week. The sometimes consistent renunciation of freedom and comfort ensures a lasting, advancement in the profession.

Irregular working hours

As a trader you often work at times when other people have free time. The markets are not mine, so I have to follow the markets and then work when it's worth it. After working on the stock market comes the analysis and preparation for the next week. Maybe I have to revise certain strategies or develop new strategies that only works in times when you are not in the trade. This willingness requires some flexibility on your part and, of course, on the part of your family, which will certainly be accepted if a corresponding financial compensation is created.


Permanent training

Standstill is a step backwards, as a trader you must endeavor to learn more every day. Through targeted reading of books, information from the Internet, memorizing key figures, data and facts, you will strategically advance not only in your personal development but also in your area of expertise. This will enable you to develop further. Most traders fail because of your attitude. They already believe they know everything. As an eternal student, however, you have the opportunity to become a master in many areas by continuing your education and training on a regular basis.


Absolute concentration when the markets work

As a rule, I got up at 5 o'clock in the morning, breakfast, sports, showers, then from 6:30 CET preparation for the day. From 7:00 CET it started in EURUSD until about 12:00 CET. Then 2 hours break until 14:00 CET. Full concentration from 14:00 CET to 17:00 CET, with the highest volatility in Europe and the US. From 17:00 CET 1.5 hours break and from 18:30 CET again 2 hours of trading, sometimes longer. That was 10-12 hours a day and weekend was time for strategy and evaluation. Important: If the markets are running and I have to earn my money, I have no time for phone calls, Youtube, programming or other disruptions. I have to concentrate 100% and do not let myself be distracted. If I lost 3 trades in a row, I took a short break, then it went on. In the beginning there were weeks where I worked 80 hours. The time factor was the crucial point. A successful stockbroker told me that I should watch 10,000 hours of candles, after which the breakthrough might come. I do not completely share this view, but there is some truth in every sentence. The fact is that after 10,000 hours I have more experience than after 2,000 hours, provided I focus on the right goal.

If I spend 5 hours trading daily, it takes me 8 years to complete 10,000 hours. With 10 hours of trading per day I reach the goal in 4 years. When I focus on the right things, after 4 years I have completed my education and can now work to become a professional. If I want to become as successful as a doctor, I must be prepared to take 4-8 years of training and pay for it. And such training costs a hell of a lot of money. If you spend 2 hours trading daily with your main profession, you need 20 years to get to the 10,000 hours. It is a mistaketo think,you can trade for a few hours and thus achieve long-term and sustainable profits. The profession trader is one of the most difficult professions in this world and experience is the most important trait to pass. And experience takes time. Of course, there are natural talents who have reached their destination in less time, there are also lottery millionaires who have become rich without working.



The goal of which I speak is: sustainable and long-term success in trading in order to be able to live on it. And it has nothing to do with gambling. The world champions in trading manage to achieve 300% return within 1 year, but next year they are mostly gone. On the slide you can see how often the traders became world champions in a row. From a few 1000 people there are 4 traders, within 20 years, their at least 2 times world champion, but never in a row.



Here you can see 3 different people who became world champions in the forex and futures market. In the forex market, the average return was 136%. With 642% in the futures market, the yield was almost 5 times higher. This shows once again that the futures market may be easier to trade. The reason is clearly the better market information provided in the futures market.




The top 10 FX hedge funds, which manage more than $ 10 million, have generated an average return of just under 30% per annum over the last 9 years. The top 10 hedge funds that manage less than $ 10 million have achieved an average return of just under 15% per annum over the last 9 years. The average return of all participants was thus 24% per year or 2% per month. So the bigger big players seem to have a distinct advantage. These professionals manage the money of many investors and have no typical gambling mentality, as you often see in the forex market. The drawdown is relatively low and security is an essential principle.


What is the realistic return in the forex market?

There are professional traders who can achieve monthly returns of up to 100 percent with a 10,000 euro account, but these are the big exceptions. Since most forex traders do not make money in currency trading, the question arises as to what return the successful average trader can expect. A blanket statement about the realistic return can not be made. Too much depends on the trader, his money management and the chosen trading strategy. Traders with a lot of experience in the field of forex who use a good strategy can realistically achieve annual returns in the double-digit percentage range. There are many factors to consider. While one trader manages to achieve an average return of 10 percent each month, other traders generate returns in the low single-digit percentage range of between one and three percent. Those who risk around five percent of their trading capital can achieve returns of 100 percent a year. Those who risk 1 to 2 percent per trade can achieve a return of 50 percent a year. But with 5% risk, the money is gone faster than you can blink. I would set me at 1-2% risk per trade. In our # 6 project, we came to the conclusion that data from the futures market may triple the success rates in the Forex market. We will talk about that for the next few months.

Let's look at a simple example. Your account has $ 7,000. As a non-professional trader, you can trade a maximum of two lots in the case, and then your margin is $ 6666. Your stop is 7 pip of profit at 14 pip. The risk profit ratio is 1: 2.



We look at the course at a risk of 1% to 3%. We assume that 50% of all trades go into profit, and in the worst case scenario, they first lose 15 trades in a row and then win15 trades in a row. With a 1% risk, $ 7765 would be in the account after 30 trades. With an even distribution across the 30 trades, it would already be over $ 7900.

With a 1% risk, you would have lost 17% of your capital after 15 trades. With 2% risk, you loose 32% and 3% risk lose just under half of your initial capital. If the 30 trades go as expected, you get 11% to 33% returns. The question remains whether the 14 pip can always be achieved because the courses are often in equilibrium or in a sideways market. This means that you may need to run your trades overnight to reach your winning odds. This significantly increases the risk.

In the picture, we see that the higher the risk we take, the higher the return we can get. At a risk of 1%, it is quite possible to achieve a return of over 10% after 30 trades. The question arises: In what time can we complete these 30 trades? Suppose that we are able to trade each day, then it would be possible to achieve over 50% return within one year.

In the following case, we assume that the gains and losses are more evenly distributed within their 30 trades than in the previous example. We also assume that 50% of the trades will go into profit with a starting capital of $ 7,000. The numbers serve as rough clues as there are too many different ways to list them all. To simplify the whole thing was calculated with a Pip = 10 dollars.



Point A

The risk-reward ratio (RRR) is expected to be 5 pip and 10 pip. In case of loss, 5 pip plus spread in case of profit arises 10 pip minus spread. After 30 trades a profit of approximately $ 600 is reached. The risk of the first trade (Risk 1) in relation to the initial capital is 0.8%. The value Return 30 with 8.6% is the profit after 30 trades relative to the starting capital of $ 7000. In other words, we have made a profit of ten dollars with one dollar of risk per trade after 30 trades.

This calculation is not quite correct because we have taken 30 × 0.8% risk to achieve a gain of 8.6%. Therefore, one could say: We were prepared to take a cumulative risk of 24% to accumulate 8.6% cumulatively. However, the maximum risk of a trade is 0.8%. The factor of 10.9 should only be a comparison between the individual risk and the cumulative profit. Of course, there are fluctuations within these numbers because the initial capital is constantly changing. But as already mentioned, this is a rough example. On the chart you can see: With a stop of one pip and a gain of two pip, you can lose nothing but win nothing with a win rate of 50%. With a stop of 10 pip and a gain of 20 pip, you can improve the ratio of risk and return to a factor of 12.9.

There is a relatively easy way to efficiently improve long-term returns. In our yellow highlighted example under point A the trader expects a profit of 10 pip, but he has calculated a stop of five pip. With our strategy of supply and demand, I've shown you a few times how you are able to significantly reduce your stops. With the help of our Project 6, which will provide us with information from the futures market, reducing stops will be even easier. If you calculate with 10 pip profit and at the same time reduce your stop to 1 pip, the bill would look like this. In case of loss, 1 pip plus spread in case of profit arises 10 pip minus spread. After 30 trades a profit of approximately 1200 $ is reached. The risk of the first trade (Risk 1) relative to the initial capital is 0.2%. The value Return 30 with 17.1% is the profit after 30 trades relative to the starting capital of $ 7000. In other words, with $ 1 risk per trade, we have made $ 85 profit after 30 trades.

So we reduced the risk by 75% and at the same time increased the profit by 100%. That's an overall advantage of 686%.

Of course, the likelihood is higher with a stop of 1 pip rather than stopping with a stop of 5 pip. But with a stop of 1 pip and a gain of 2 pip, you will not advance as a scalper. So you are forced to keep your stop to a minimum in order to be profitable. When I work as a scalper with a stop of 1 pip and a gain of 3 pip, I reach the same factor as someone who works with a stop of 5 pip and a profit of 10 pip. However, I would have to complete four times as many trades in the same time to achieve the same profit.

The longer a trade runs and the more pip it reaches in relation to the stop, the sooner the spread is worthwhile. So I can understand that it does not matter to a swing trader whether the cost of the EURUSD is 1 PiP or 0.5 pip. For us Scalpers the spread is a very important factor in the Moneymanagement. Another advantage is that as a scalper I am also able to take smaller courses, provided the stop is significantly reduced. In the many years of my practice, I have noticed that I am more likely to be able to rate the course better in the short-term than in a long-term area. You should think about it yourself and work out a strategy that will make it possible for you to get the best possible return with a small risk.



How can I become self-employed as a trader in the forex market?


Permanent pressure

As a trader, it is your job to make a profit and generate income from it. The most successful big players in the world generate a 30% annual return, the smaller big players a return of 15% per year. With $ 10,000 and a return of 24%, this equates to a profit of $ 2,400 a year. With $ 200 a month you can not make ends meet. If you need $ 2,000 a month you have to generate $ 3,000 before taxes. With $ 10,000 of capital in the account, that would be a return of 30% per month, or 360% a year. This is not possible in the long term. For 20 trading days you would have to win $ 150 daily. For 1 lot this is 15 pip, for 10 solder it is 1.5 pip. Everyone knows that this is a big challenge. What happens if the price with 10 lot is 5 pip against you, then more than 5% of the capital is gone. That could build up enormous pressure, which is not exactly conducive to work. More than 1-2% of the capital should not be risked per trade. At $ 10,000, that's about $ 150. Good Moneymanagement is a crucial factor.

Now you could use a simulation (Monte Carlo) to calculate a possible scenario. Unfortunately, the Monte Carlo simulation does not get you anywhere, as you would have to tailor a strategy to the respective markets in order to get an approximately good result. If I am forced to earn a certain monthly capital, the pressure is enormous. If you have little capital, there is only one way, you have to build up capital first. But that too is a risk.



Suppose your partner supports you over 3 years, he provides the income for rent, cost of living and so on. In some countries you can enter health insurance free of charge through your spouse and you do not need to register for trading. You have a starting capital of $ 10,000. With a return of 5% per month and a tax rate of 30%, you reach a capital of $ 38,201 after 3 years. That would be a monthly income of $ 1910 minus $ 573 tax = net income of $ 1,336. Maybe you could then increase the number of plumb bobs and optimize the income. But your partner has to support you for 3 years and you have to do your job well at the same time. You can download the Excel file at the end to get an idea of it yourself. But do not expect too high returns, you also have to remember that there are months where they possibly lose.

In order to get a return of 5% per month, you have to achieve at least a risk-reward ratio of 1: 3 to 1: 4 with 2 lots. That means your capital of $ 10,000 must first be built to live on. Taking a loan or a mortgage on the house is not a good idea. You should always trade only with money that you can do without in an emergency.

What risks are there? If you own $ 10,000 and work to raise that money over the next three years, the worst case scenario is that the money could be lost and you would have worked for free for three years. The question is whether the family and financial situation allows such an approach.

At best, you can achieve your goal and, after three years, be able to financially support your partner. However, before you start such a project you should have proven for more than a year that you can achieve a monthly return of at least 3%. The return on a demo account does not count, because you act differently with real money.

If you have financial obligations in the form of mortgages, financings, children or alimony payments, you should refrain from doing so. Then you only have the opportunity to build a small account on a part-time basis. If you then start your career as a full-time career, you would immediately be able to support your family.

You should always keep in mind that the majority of traders lose money in the long term, but this is mainly due to the small amount of experience a young trader brings. I realize that the benefits of being a self-employed in the stock market are remotely appealing from a distance. But without money, the reality is rather sobering.

But of course it depends on your individual situation. Maybe you do not like your daily work and dream of a trading career, but you always have to keep an eye on the good of your family. If you have financial obligations, there is only one chance: build a small account after work. Although this may not be a solution in the short term, you have the chance of a potential trader's career in the long term. Better a trader in 10 years than never.

Define goals

Only those who have defined their goals keep track of the hustle and bustle of the day, setting the right priorities even under the heaviest workload, and understand how to quickly and safely achieve what they are looking for, how to optimally use their abilities. Those who consciously set goals and pursue them also direct their unconscious powers to their actions.

Stay consistent

Techniques, methods and schedule are the easier part of successful management. The part of the attitude, the behavior and the self-discipline are the other and more difficult part. The human being is controlled less by reason and logic, but predominantly by the psyche and the subconscious. The one does not go without the other, but the feeling usually dominates over the mind. Therefore, consistency, self-discipline, postponing things or overcoming unpleasant things, despite the use of a timetable, are repeatedly stated as a major difficulty in managing time in practice. Activate your subconscious and motivate yourself positively. Stay consistent. A Persian saying goes: All things are hard before they become easy.


Questions that advance me

What was especially good?
What motivated me this month?
What blocked me this month?
Where do I need help?
What do I have to learn, train?
When:
As:
By what / who:
Have I consistently followed my priorities every day?
Did I spend my most expensive time trading?
Did I stick to my strategy? ¬
Have I trained enough?
Was my time management optimal?
Did I reach my goal a) yes b) partially c) not
Would more have gone?
How?
What do I want to change concretely?
Errors I do not want to redo:


You relieve your memory and concentrate only on the essentials. Make writing as the number 1 working principle. A written plan has the psychological effect of self-motivation to work. You can also better control your activities later.

All this is just a small excerpt of some important skills to succeed. An independent trader is his own entrepreneur. And a private entrepreneur has no boss who daily kicked his butt, or shows him what he should have done better. In such a profession it is incredibly important to have a human being at his side who will build you up, if you want to give up and slow you down if you get too cocky. By that I do not mean a coach who receives money for his advice, but a person whom you loves from the heart and to whom they are important. Of course, there are some good coaches, but I'm convinced you can save your money 90% of the time. It has been proven that every trader has to develop his own system. That a possible system of a coach fits exactly on you, is quite unlikely. In addition, most coaches for me are eunuchs who philosophize about how best to perform the sexual act.

It's clear what a trader earns his money with? By taking a risk on the stock exchange every day. How does a trader coach make his money? In which he recommends other traders take a risk on the stock exchange every day. For this he receives a handsome fee that he can keep. That he now gets a fixed salary and no longer has to risk his money on the stock market. Get out of the risk and into the safe harbor. Believe me, the fewest successful traders become coaches, because they make their money faster on the stock exchange than it would be possible with coaching. And that's why there are not many coaches worth their money.

Success in the stock market has little to do with technical but more with psychological things. You have to focus on these psychological things in the future. When you overcome the fear and the greed, you are almost at your destination.

I wish you that you believe in yourself more in the future and achieve your goals.

best regards

Attached File(s)

Traderplan.xlsx   22 KB | 852 downloads