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(binned per thread starter’s request) Abe's Median Line Thread

  • #121
  • Jul 17, 2019 5:04pm Jul 17, 2019 5:04pm
Quoting kicktothehea
{quote} Abe - do you mind clarifying this statement for me that you made? I am curious as to your thoughts on this. Thank you -Kick
Sure. For example if one desires to trade in the direction of the daily time frame. Perhaps in this context one will enter on the H4 time frame in the direction of the daily time frame. Let's say the daily time frame is up so one looks at the H4 time frame. So in this context the trader is looking for a long entry on the H4 time frame based on some criteria. Let's say in this case the H4 time frame is clearly down trending so the trader decides to enter long when the H4 shows some intention of turning up. The trader in this case is entering clearly against the H4 down trend and is doing so only because the daily time frame is up. To me this is no different than trading moving averages.

I discarded MTF analysis years ago. I choose a time frame and trade that time frame exclusively. Anyway it's just my opinion.
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  • #122
  • Jul 19, 2019 3:30pm Jul 19, 2019 3:30pm
I am definitely curious as to how your results are using 1 timeframe?
Do you ever get caught out or caught by suprise?
I ask because I know most online trading info is made for marketing purposes and most are not real traders - but almost everyone pushes MTF - (I could talk for days about trading sorry haha)


Current view 1H chart AUD/USD - Looking for a potential buy if they show up


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-B
  • #123
  • Jul 19, 2019 8:04pm Jul 19, 2019 8:04pm
Quoting kicktothehea
I am definitely curious as to how your results are using 1 timeframe? Do you ever get caught out or caught by suprise? I ask because I know most online trading info is made for marketing purposes and most are not real traders - but almost everyone pushes MTF - (I could talk for days about trading sorry haha) Current view 1H chart AUD/USD - Looking for a potential buy if they show up {image}
Hey Kick. I could talk forever about trading too so don't worry. I appreciate the dialogue.

I'm not sure what you mean by "caught out or caught by surprise". I take stop losses like everyone else. It's just part of trading. I go for a minimum 3:1 R:R so I don't get too worried about taking a loss. In fact my win rate is well below 50%. I put MTF analysis in the same category as indicators... Don't use 'em. LOL. If your using MTF analysis I'm not going to rail on you so don't worry 'bout it.

I mostly trade 20 min charts and look at other chart time frames when I converse with others and just want to see what they're looking at. Sometimes I see something cool and go for it. I don't go back and forth between time frames. If I'm on a 20 I trade it exclusively and don't look at anything else. I have pretty well-defined PA dependent criteria for trading and don't need to surf time frames to find it. If it's not on my time frame then it's not tradeable.

Anyway I'm glad for your interest and hope to carry on with you.
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  • #124
  • Jul 21, 2019 10:05am Jul 21, 2019 10:05am
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  • #125
  • Jul 21, 2019 3:23pm Jul 21, 2019 3:23pm
How would you trade the Yen based on that chart?
Would you put a sell stop underneath the ML if it breaks down to catch it?
-B
  • #126
  • Jul 21, 2019 5:11pm Jul 21, 2019 5:11pm
Quoting kicktothehea
How would you trade the Yen based on that chart? Would you put a sell stop underneath the ML if it breaks down to catch it?
Hey Kick! Happy Sunday!
In this ML price has reached the center ML. At the ML there was a bearish reaction (upside down V formation) and as the light blue horizontal rectangle depicts there are sellers in this area.
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Zooming in we can see coil before and after the upside down V (purple rectangle).
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At this point I can see price overall is going down but for the moment I'm watching and learning from price.
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  • #127
  • Jul 21, 2019 5:54pm Jul 21, 2019 5:54pm
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  • #128
  • Jul 22, 2019 7:11am Jul 22, 2019 7:11am
Quoting Abe16
{image} {image}
Stopped
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  • #129
  • Jul 23, 2019 7:49am Jul 23, 2019 7:49am
HI Abe!
i ask something.
When you draw a fork, how do you set the three reference points?
curisous tell me plz
  • #130
  • Jul 23, 2019 4:33pm Jul 23, 2019 4:33pm
Quoting Mjlee
HI Abe! i ask something. When you draw a fork, how do you set the three reference points? curisous tell me plz
I would encourage you to read from the beginning of this thread. Post #2 is helpful.

Also take a chance and draw some median lines and post them here.
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  • #131
  • Edited 11:49pm Jul 24, 2019 10:37pm | Edited 11:49pm
Hi Abe,

I want to officially show up here. My name is Robert and I am studying forex trading "fulltime" since a few months, my long years back origin is crypto actually.

Median lines (Andrews Pitchforks and the subjects and tools around it) seem truly sexy for me. I am so often surprised-excited, how precise price follows the predictions. My biggest challenge at the moment is, how to get proficient in confirming a true point C. I guess I will get some answers here during carefully reading. From there on, things will get just half so difficult.

Thank you honestly to be here and to share your knowledge. After I read this thread thoroughly twice, I will contribute as a writing student actively.

From now on, be aware that you have one more serious reader here.



---------

Just for fun, here one of my very recent failures:

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Trying to safe the world...
  • #132
  • Jul 25, 2019 7:27am Jul 25, 2019 7:27am
Here is a Modified Shiff on the NQ this morning 888 Tick Chart. Active Trade.
I am no expert but according to Tim Morge, this is how he trades. He waits for a confirmation of C, Ideally, I would have entered on the lower line.
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  • #133
  • Jul 25, 2019 7:35am Jul 25, 2019 7:35am
Quoting RobertMY
Hi Abe, I want to officially show up here. My name is Robert and I am studying forex trading "fulltime" since a few months, my long years back origin is crypto actually. Median lines (Andrews Pitchforks and the subjects and tools around it) seem truly sexy for me. I am so often surprised-excited, how precise price follows the predictions. My biggest challenge at the moment is, how to get proficient in confirming a true point C. I guess I will get some answers here during carefully reading. From there on, things will get just half so difficult. Thank...
Thanks Robert. Looking forward to your charts.
I think I found your EURJPY 5 minute chart and I'll make a few comments. I posted my chart for reference.
First always draw the pivots alternating from a H,L,H or a L,H,L. Your ML looks to be drawn from a L,L,H.
Also I very much recommend dumping all indicators from your chart especially that moving average. It's truly useless.

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  • #134
  • Jul 25, 2019 7:36am Jul 25, 2019 7:36am
Quoting TheLaw1
Here is a Modified Shiff on the NQ this morning 888 Tick Chart. Active Trade. I am no expert but according to Tim Morge, this is how he trades. He waits for a confirmation of C, Ideally, I would have entered on the lower line. {image}
Nice!. I'm not trading futures right now but thinking about taking the plunge.
Freedom is not free
  • #135
  • Jul 25, 2019 8:01am Jul 25, 2019 8:01am
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Thanks Robert. Looking forward to your charts. I think I found your EURJPY 5 minute chart and I'll make a few comments. I posted my chart for reference. First always draw the pivots alternating from a H,L,H or a L,H,L. Your ML looks to be drawn from a L,L,H. Also I very much recommend dumping all indicators from your chart especially that moving average. It's truly useless. {image}
True. It was L,L,H. Jesus...
Trying to safe the world...
  • #136
  • Edited 1:14pm Jul 25, 2019 1:01pm | Edited 1:14pm
Hey guys I need some help. I'm doing some backtesting... The hagopian rule says that if price can't reach the median line and fails to hold the closest parallel, that it should fall at least to the C point of that median line. But what about when price falls off of the parallel, after having already met the median line? I've seen this happen successfully quite a few times from experience. But I don't know if it is a good target. So is that a good profit target for a trade like this? If I make a new median line and use the parallel as profit target, it's like 1/3 of the move.

keep in mind this has to be coming from the frame of mind of someone who can't see the future price action to know what kind of ML should be drawn. The new fork I drew is the one that would look the best to hypothetical me at the time the trade would have been entered.
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  • #137
  • Jul 25, 2019 7:13pm Jul 25, 2019 7:13pm
Quoting dvrkbxy
Hey guys I need some help. I'm doing some backtesting... The hagopian rule says that if price can't reach the median line and fails to hold the closest parallel, that it should fall at least to the C point of that median line. But what about when price falls off of the parallel, after having already met the median line? I've seen this happen successfully quite a few times from experience. But I don't know if it is a good target. So is that a good profit target for a trade like this? If I make a new median line and use the parallel as profit target,...
I'll just use the daily chart to provide an answer.

Ican't see the origin of your ML but I think my chart got it. You've drawn a modified schiff ML. I've labeled the pivots because this does ground the chart very well. give this is a modified schiff then the upper parallel becomes essentially the same as the center ML of a standard ML. Once it reaches this as it essentially does as shown by D1 then the ML is considered completed. If one continues to use the ML then it essentially becomes a channel and IMHO it becomes more difficult to apply Andrews rules.

However we can use the swing as a reference or measured move to help us find potential trades or even to tell us when the "trend" or rhythm changes. We can see that BC is the largest reaction leg or retracement leg so B-C becomes a superb measuring tool. So as price moves up and pulls back we would look for a pullback about the same size as B-C and when a pullback equals B-C we might consider buying the pullback for a new impulse wave to a new high. I've marked off several attempts that never equal B-C until the very top where B-C is met but as you can see price tries to make a new high and then fails. At this point one might consider looking for shorts.

So rather than look at the ML strictly it is better to look at how price is moving in relation to very identifiable price moves as I've elucidated by using B-C as a measured move.

I hope this was helpful.
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  • #138
  • Jul 25, 2019 8:39pm Jul 25, 2019 8:39pm
I've been watching this AUDCAD H4 chart since last week and it's looking tempting.

It's a good example of not being beholden to "the lines". In other words we shouldn't allow the median line tool to tell us what to do. Here we can see A,B,C,D and price has "zoomed" passed the center ML and retested support below the center ML and rezoomed to the upside and is now looking to retest lower support.
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  • #139
  • Jul 25, 2019 8:51pm Jul 25, 2019 8:51pm
NZDCADH4
Similar to AUDCADH4
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  • #140
  • Jul 27, 2019 8:00am Jul 27, 2019 8:00am
Recent AUDCHF H4
This is a standard ML that is tilting down. Notice AB and CD. Also note the smaller swings.

While a C to D trade or a trade taking potential advantage of Andrews rule that price has about an 80% chance of reaching the ML we have to be aware of overall context. For the moment let's just talk about C in this case.

C definitely forms when e to f is taken out to the upside. This scenario often presents an opportunity to trade towards the center ML by entering on a pullback. But notice again that the ML is pointing down and this gives one pause to attempt a long entry towards the center ML as the R:R is poor.

In this case I would rather wait for price to get to the center ML then consider selling at the center ML for another impulse to a new low.

This also highlights the value of median lines as very effective measuring tools. This escapes many who essentially use MLs at channels. In this case after A to B occurred and price moved below B then we could follow price as it descended. As it descends we expect pullbacks on the way down. You can see the 3 small pull backs but the one we really are waiting for is a pullback that is equal to a relative to A to B. Here C to D is very close in size to A to B and when it occurred one should pay close attention.
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