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Trading against the herd

  • #141
  • Jul 15, 2019 1:00am Jul 15, 2019 1:00am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I have the same problem. Loaded the templates and the indicators but just got this. . {image}
You must edit the.ini file according to the instructions in the PDF. Most importantly, your computer time zone and broker server time. The interval to update the data.
Your computer needs to be ON and connected for the length of time to be able to collect data.
  • #142
  • Edited 1:30pm Jul 15, 2019 1:02pm | Edited 1:30pm
Quoting peterbabs
{quote} You must edit the.ini file according to the instructions in the PDF. Most importantly, your computer time zone and broker server time. The interval to update the data. Your computer needs to be ON and connected for the length of time to be able to collect data.
Thanks.

I have changed the time zone to match that of the broker's time but dunno know how to edit the .ini files. Kindly put me through the process of editing the files please.

Thanks
  • #143
  • Jul 15, 2019 2:15pm Jul 15, 2019 2:15pm
I caught the lastest move down of the GBP/JPY. Took out 45 pips using Ill-b-backs great idea. Closed too soon it appears, but there is another day. To those trying to use an indicator for this ......... IT IS NOT NEEDED. Can you not do something this simple without another indicator? This takes me back to one Richard Dennis the founder of the Turtle Trading group. Richard took under his wing, shared his trend following method & even funded the account of those blessed enough to be chosen. Yes, I Said Blessed. Even after doing every thing he could do to help each trader be successful most went on to fail. If was later determined those that failed did so because they simply failed to follow the rules of the method as taught by Richard & his assistant. What Ill-b-back has shared in simplistic at its best. Just some data easily obtained from 5 or 6 sources & free. Just my view & nothing more. Best of trades to everyone.
  • #144
  • Jul 15, 2019 4:59pm Jul 15, 2019 4:59pm
Quoting peterbabs
{quote} You must edit the.ini file according to the instructions in the PDF. Most importantly, your computer time zone and broker server time. The interval to update the data. Your computer needs to be ON and connected for the length of time to be able to collect data.
Thanks very much Peterbabs, I appreciate your greater attention to detail
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #145
  • Edited Jul 16, 2019 5:04am Jul 15, 2019 5:04pm | Edited Jul 16, 2019 5:04am
Quoting Ill-b-back
GBPUSD bulls at 64%. Still bearish....
Climbed a smidge to 65% on the GBPUSD drop

GU drops, longs climb to 67%
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #146
  • Jul 16, 2019 3:59am Jul 16, 2019 3:59am
GBPUSD
(29k-4k)*100k = 2.5Billion 10 hours, really possible?
Attached Image
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #147
  • Edited 8:10am Jul 16, 2019 4:24am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting wiserltz
GBPUSD (29k-4k)*100k = 2.5Billion 10 hours, really possible?
Not sure, but there's been some unusual 'spikes' in the volumes:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PPI 460.png Size: 103 KB

There are some interesting anomalies in the way that 'pips' are measured also, e.g. note how retail GBPJPY volumes are apparently (on average) 4511 pips under water, whereas this measures 451.1 pips in MT4. But, unlike the spikes, that's not necessarily a recent development.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PPI 461.png Size: 17 KB

______________________________

@Ill-b-back: Sorry to further interrupt your thread, but to anybody who's having trouble getting the plots to work, please read both of my replies to FF member maknil in this post. I've added a step-by-step explanation of how to edit the ini file (see the section with the red asterisks **).

I'll try a little harder to disappear this time.
  • #148
  • Jul 16, 2019 5:03am Jul 16, 2019 5:03am
Quoting hanover
@Ill-be-back: Sorry to further interrupt your thread, but to anybody who's having trouble getting the plots to work, please read both of my replies to FF member maknil in this post. I've added a step-by-step explanation of how to edit the ini file (see the section with the red asterisks **). I'll try a little harder to disappear this time.
Thank you so much Hanover, stay pls as long as you like, you are a great help.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #149
  • Jul 16, 2019 5:05am Jul 16, 2019 5:05am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Climbed a smidge to 65% on the GBPUSD drop GU drops, longs climb to 67%
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #150
  • Jul 16, 2019 5:06am Jul 16, 2019 5:06am
Quoting wiserltz
GBPUSD (29k-4k)*100k = 2.5Billion 10 hours, really possible? {image}
What this does tells you is that 25,000 short lots were closed out.

What it doesn't tell you is if they really are lots, since we don't know what proportion of these 'lots' are from cent accounts, or other non-standard trading ratios. MyFxBook states that the outlook is generated from real, verified accounts, but does not state how cent accounts are treated. If you took an extreme position (that most accounts were cent accounts) then you would have a leveraged value of 25,000/100 = 250 full lots. The value of positions exited lies somewhere in between.

What it also doesn't tell you is if these positions were exited in profit. They could have been carrying a drawdown for some time and this is just traders taking an opportunity to minimise losses.

It's estimated that average global fx trading (across all currencies) is in the region of $220B/hr = 220,000 real lots/hr = 2.2M lots over 10 hours. When there is a big price move trading volumes are likely to increase well above this average. So $2.5B on GBPUSD? Easily!
Always read Post #1
  • #151
  • Jul 16, 2019 7:17am Jul 16, 2019 7:17am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote}If next week the GBP/USD starts falling again all the retail traders will start buying it and the data will go up to say 70/75% {image}
Currently rising to 69%.
https://www.forexfactory.com/trades....ions-details=1

It's on it's way...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #152
  • Jul 16, 2019 1:29pm Jul 16, 2019 1:29pm
89% buying the GBP (Myfxbook) - All GBP pairs
71% buying the GBP (FF Trade explorer) - All GBP pairs

Below Sources: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
https://twitter.com/fxcm_marketdata?lang=en

GBP/USD: Traders Remain Net-Long Since May
GBP/USD: RETAIL DATA SHOWS 79.9% OF TRADERS ARE NET-LONG

GBP/USD: Retail trader data shows 79.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.97 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.28987; price has moved 3.0% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.0% higher than yesterday and 2.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.6% lower than yesterday and 11.3% higher from last week.

GBP/USD: SENTIMENT SUGGESTS FURTHER BEARISH TRADING BIAS

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
-Written by Tammy Da Costa, DailyFX Research
Source: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDSSI.png Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FXCMGBPUSD.png Size: 61 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #153
  • Jul 16, 2019 2:05pm Jul 16, 2019 2:05pm
90% is most of the time the number to trade with the herd. So up from here +-.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #154
  • Edited 3:15pm Jul 16, 2019 2:57pm | Edited 3:15pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
90% is most of the time the number to trade with the herd. So up from here +-.
Yes true it does have its limit sometimes.. then does a large pullback like the GBP/USD has done a few times before resuming it's down move.

But the EUR/GBP has been trading at over 90% short for weeks now and it's still rising.

EUR/GBP moves to fresh 6-month tops beyond 0.9030

If we look at it another way... Davit's pivot method trades the vast majority of the time with the retail herd and he has success.
Just the SSI data won't help you but if say the EUR/GBP is 90% short then you just look for longs in that pair with whatever method you use.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #155
  • Jul 16, 2019 3:15pm Jul 16, 2019 3:15pm
Well would like to contribute this to the thread:
pre-note.. you might be onto something here but at the same time.. some "guy" asked me a while ago.. why I like to PISS against the wind...
I don't know... I do not plan to, but it always seem to be that way

This quote comes to minds...
“Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.” ― Oscar Wilde
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/132...ys-feel-i-must

Secondly.. I checked this forum (on SUNDAY) about the prediction for the week.. maybe I was "lucky" but everyone said we are going UP (EURUSD)...
so I posted, re-affirmed my slow down through the summer.. position.. now that it did happen... nothing

and the Third thing... I can tell you, from personal experience.. There is nothing better then "win" against BIGGEST players... maybe this is their game (to bait you) but at the expense of their credibility (if the biggest players needs it at all) to say the least... Once I started trading my model (at the early stage... was best... I reaffirm this by the day...) predicted AGAINST what the GREATEST were predicting.. oh hell, lets just say it.. the CITI... BANK And one friend just couldn't grasp the idea that I (no one) had it (even maybe!) better than the big brains, ivy leagues, image_is_everything etc... And yea, he gave me some doubt for like 5sec.. and then I replied.. I just dont care... if they really bet billions or whatever... I stay behind my position... and their prediction went to shit.. but since they got so big IMAGE... they can say/write anything, they can ALWAYS justify, bring some epic explanation (or just burn a few billies to make the prediction happen ... and in fact... some "smartest" give such a prediction/"ANAL-ysis! that they are always right

But to make it short... It is BEST when some BIG shot (banks, players, insiders etc).. SAY... ONE THING (BUY/SELL, BEAR/BULL) and you make the opposite and win... I can describe it like this. jokingly
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #156
  • Jul 16, 2019 3:33pm Jul 16, 2019 3:33pm
Quoting auricforecas
Well would like to contribute this to the thread: pre-note.. you might be onto something here but at the same time.. some "guy" asked me a while ago.. why I like to PISS against the wind... I don't know... I do not plan to, but it always seem to be that way This quote comes to minds... “Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.” ― Oscar Wilde https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/132...ys-feel-i-must Secondly.. I checked this forum (on SUNDAY) about the prediction for...
Yes true but really do you think that big institutions - Big players, banks etc would reveal what they are going to do except publish false facts, news.... Like you say... WHEN THEY DO. You do the opposite because that is what they will do... Think of fake news.

Time and time again I read in quality financial publications to buy this stock... So and so bank is buying this. You know to do the opposite then.

In the U.K if you’re not in the U.K is a newspaper called “The Sun”…. It had a financial column and every week it gave you all the best buys in stocks and shares.. The publishers of the article (Not the Sun) brought all the stocks before it was published. Once published they new readers of said newspaper would buy those stocks and make the price rise. Once it had risen the publishers of the article sold their stocks for a profit and leaving the readers out of pocket.

This went on for years before “The Sun” newspaper banned them.

Where am I going with this. If you see buy this in an article online or a financial newsletter in your inbox then sell it.
You will still have your losers but still make more doing the opposite of what is published.
Test it for a year. Sign up to a quality free financial stocks newsletter… For every tip they give you do the opposite and see how much you make in say the next year.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #157
  • Jul 16, 2019 3:57pm Jul 16, 2019 3:57pm
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} Yes true but really do you think that big institutions - Big players, banks etc would reveal what they are going to do except publish false facts, news.... Like you say... WHEN THEY DO. You do the opposite because that is what they will do... Think of fake news. Time and time again I read in quality financial publications to buy this stock... So and so bank is buying this. You know to do the opposite then. In the U.K if you’re not in the U.K is a newspaper called “The Sun”…. It had a financial column and every week it gave you all the best...
I completely understand However certain banks have dedicated FX INSIGHTS divisons for example... and employ certain dedicated people just to try to guess -they hate this term however (and publish) the market.. But yeah, they could be part of the game also For example "Weekly FX Insight" etc..

I just hoped there are some that are actually trying to do the prediction job, not just tweeting and entering the position at the same time...
I wonder if they do that so obviously also Btw I remember when Draghi had a speech some coupe of years back.. and he had like a good delay (compared to scheduled), few minutes, I wondered if "someone" placed the order before the speech.. yes it DROPPED as a mofo as soon as he opened the mouth, like 80PIPS... and it was pretty CLEAN.. meaning you could SHORT yOUR HOUSE at 500:1 if you had the info.. and would make SERIOUS return...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #158
  • Edited 4:32pm Jul 16, 2019 4:17pm | Edited 4:32pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} I completely understand However certain banks have dedicated FX INSIGHTS divisons for example... and employ certain dedicated people just to try to guess -they hate this term however (and publish) the market.. But yeah, they could be part of the game also For example "Weekly FX Insight" etc.. I just hoped there are some that are actually trying to do the prediction job, not just tweeting and entering the position at the same time... I wonder if they do that so obviously also Btw I remember when Draghi had...
Test the FX insights..

This was HSBC banks FX Focus for today

AUD/USD UP - Oh it dropped 0.39%

Its all misinformation if you read all their discalimers. (I can't spell, it's been a long day and my keyboard is Irish)

re: Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 20-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 50-day moving average, can be used if needed.

OK the biggest bank in the world publishes rubbish to follow....

RE: I remember when Draghi had a speech some coupe of years back.

That was some serious insider trading. Wonder how many know his speech before he makes it.

In the U.K you get sent to prison for longer for insider trading then killing some Internet troll ;-)

Ok back to the GBP/USD. Sorry i'll-b-back. ;-)
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #159
  • Jul 16, 2019 6:20pm Jul 16, 2019 6:20pm
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} Test the FX insights.. This was HSBC banks FX Focus for today AUD/USD UP - Oh it dropped 0.39% Its all misinformation if you read all their discalimers. (I can't spell, it's been a long day and my keyboard is Irish) re: Current Trend observations pertain to historical trend technical analysis only and do not reflect any forward looking fundamental views. The signal is generated with the the 20-days moving average as the main determining factor. A secondary reference, the 50-day moving average, can be used if needed. OK the biggest bank in...
That's quite alright Neil, pointing out the conflict of interest between banks and the "beneficiaries" of their advice, was a past time of mine in years gone by here at FF.
As was pointing out the near on 90% failure rate of their "published" positions here on FF.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #160
  • Jul 16, 2019 6:23pm Jul 16, 2019 6:23pm
Now, back to the herd.

https://www.forexfactory.com/trades....ions-details=1
69% bullish and climbing...

Hence, my analysis:

Perhaps a small rise to the sell area above, then to next support area below...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly.png Size: 29 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
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