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Trading against the herd

  • #101
  • Jul 10, 2019 11:28pm Jul 10, 2019 11:28pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
GBPUSD bulls now at 70%. This bullish move can't last long...
What percentage do you think the bear will be finished?
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #102
  • Jul 10, 2019 11:35pm Jul 10, 2019 11:35pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} might get you wish on the 4hr chart mate
Hey Aussie. I'm not in the market yet, waiting to see what happens higher up.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #103
  • Jul 10, 2019 11:37pm Jul 10, 2019 11:37pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Hey Aussie. I'm not in the market yet, waiting to see what happens higher up.
i understand mate
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #104
  • Jul 10, 2019 11:37pm Jul 10, 2019 11:37pm
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} What percentage do you think the bear will be finished?
No idea.
Simply looking at % and going against the herd as explained in my first post.
This is for experimental purposes only and is not how I approach trading.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #105
  • Jul 10, 2019 11:57pm Jul 10, 2019 11:57pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
GBPUSD bulls now at 70%. This bullish move can't last long...
Agree! In fact I think all the PA above 1.125 is fake
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #106
  • Jul 10, 2019 11:58pm Jul 10, 2019 11:58pm
What sources are you using? At the moment, I got these:

https://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php
https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/deut...tch/sentiment/
https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment
https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading...osition-ratios
https://www.home.saxo/insights/tools...t/tool-details
https://www.fxblue.com/connect/#sentiment
https://www.myfxbook.com/de/community/outlook
https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio

What else can be used?
  • #107
  • Jul 11, 2019 12:13am Jul 11, 2019 12:13am
Quoting thj79
What sources are you using? At the moment, I got these: https://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/deut...tch/sentiment/ https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading...osition-ratios https://www.home.saxo/insights/tools...t/tool-details https://www.fxblue.com/connect/#sentiment https://www.myfxbook.com/de/community/outlook https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio What else...
Oanda's open order book is updated half-hourly or so. I use that mostly to find imbalances for bad traders. I'm sure there are other order books available, sadly I do not have access to them myself.
  • #108
  • Jul 11, 2019 12:19am Jul 11, 2019 12:19am
Quoting thj79
What sources are you using? At the moment, I got these: https://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/deut...tch/sentiment/ https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading...osition-ratios https://www.home.saxo/insights/tools...t/tool-details https://www.fxblue.com/connect/#sentiment https://www.myfxbook.com/de/community/outlook https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio What else...
Just the positions listed in the "trades" section of this site. It's what I have observed and loosely tracked over the years and has been quite a reliable contraindicator.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #109
  • Jul 11, 2019 12:59am Jul 11, 2019 12:59am
Quoting thj79
What sources are you using? At the moment, I got these: https://www.forexfactory.com/trades.php https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/deut...tch/sentiment/ https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading...osition-ratios https://www.home.saxo/insights/tools...t/tool-details https://www.fxblue.com/connect/#sentiment https://www.myfxbook.com/de/community/outlook https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio What else...

www.fxssi.com is a great tool that has all these combined at a glance. You can check the usage page to guide you on how best to use it.

Cheers
  • #110
  • Jul 11, 2019 1:27am Jul 11, 2019 1:27am
Thx!

Maybe a bit off topic, but also "the herd": You read all these articles that 99% lose money on forex? If you watch the broker ads, it is more like 75% who lose money. That means around every fourth FF visitor is making some money.

Quite encouraging
  • #111
  • Jul 11, 2019 2:14am Jul 11, 2019 2:14am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} i understand mate
1.26-2650 area.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #112
  • Jul 11, 2019 4:07am Jul 11, 2019 4:07am
Heavy GBP/USD retail volume sell last week:
Attached Images
  • #113
  • Jul 11, 2019 4:50am Jul 11, 2019 4:50am
Quoting Lekkim
Heavy GBP/USD retail volume sell last week: {image} {image}
Source?
Not from Forex Factory.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #114
  • Jul 11, 2019 2:15pm Jul 11, 2019 2:15pm
66% Bullish...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #115
  • Jul 11, 2019 6:57pm Jul 11, 2019 6:57pm
I will update the chart with all current SSI and price data when I get a chance. The SSI/Price cross.

GBP/USD May 14th SELL - Price crossed the SSI (Long-Short Ratio taken from forex factory and price taken from closing prices using FXCM on tradingview)

Keep the sell order until it crosses back over. The SSI crosses the price. After I have time to update the chart I will see if the SSI crossed the price on the pullbacks.

Sell order May 14th - Price = 1.29030

I will finish the chart off when I get time but they are still buying now and not sold the GBP/USD since May 6th

Price today U.K time 02.20 12 July 2019 = 1.25372
Difference = 0.03658 = 3658 points.
Attached Image
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #116
  • Jul 11, 2019 7:28pm Jul 11, 2019 7:28pm
Quoting neilsdigest
I will update the chart with all current SSI and price data when I get a chance. The SSI/Price cross. GBP/USD May 14th SELL - Price crossed the SSI (Long-Short Ratio taken from forex factory and price taken from closing prices using FXCM on tradingview) Keep the sell order until it crosses back over. The SSI crosses the price. After I have time to update the chart I will see if the SSI crossed the price on the pullbacks. Sell order May 14th - Price = 1.29030 I will finish the chart off when I get time but they are still buying now and not sold the...
The way you normalize the price into SSI 's 10~80 affect greatly to the result. Do you simply mapped daily chart turning point price to SSI 50% center?
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #117
  • Jul 11, 2019 8:19pm Jul 11, 2019 8:19pm
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} The way you normalize the price into SSI 's 10~80 affect greatly to the result. Do you simply mapped daily chart turning point price to SSI 50% center?
data quality is a big problem.
ff gbpusd's long & short positions is less than 0.5K, last night i saw one person bet 50lots in a single trade, mote than 10%, Cigarguy uses 20lots in his scalping trade.
Be a spectator, not a player
  • #118
  • Jul 11, 2019 8:36pm Jul 11, 2019 8:36pm
Quoting wiserltz
{quote} The way you normalize the price into SSI 's 10~80 affect greatly to the result. Do you simply mapped daily chart turning point price to SSI 50% center?
Re: data quality is a big problem - I always use myfxbook as I think the data quality is a lot better with more traders/positions etc.

I have a unique way of turning price into a rating like the SSI . I can't explain it at the minute as its 4am and my brain has gone sleep.

Last four days of USD/CAD - Latest SSI and price (Latest at bottom) Daily closing prices.

USD/CAD Price
61
61
60
60

SSI (Forex Factory)
61
64
65
64

Price under the SSI so SELL (Bolded)

USD/CAD sell order at 1.30808
Price now at posting 1.30387

I always use myfxbook but as I'll-be-back was researching the forex factory one so I tested it and they are the results.. OK only a small sample and by using the forex factory one its still a big theory but seems OK. I prefer myfxbook as it has more data from more brokers.

See what i'll-be-back thinks and I will do more from forex factory but its a long boring job -)

I have always used another method with the SSI but just started tying this approach.

I will carry on and finish the GBP/USD chart with data from forex factory over the weekend with all the data so it show the Price/SSI chart better.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #119
  • Jul 11, 2019 10:12pm Jul 11, 2019 10:12pm
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} Re: data quality is a big problem - I always use myfxbook as I think the data quality is a lot better with more traders/positions etc. I have a unique way of turning price into a rating like the SSI . I can't explain it at the minute as its 4am and my brain has gone sleep. Last four days of USD/CAD - Latest SSI and price (Latest at bottom) Daily closing prices. USD/CAD Price 61 61 60 60 SSI (Forex Factory) 61 64 65 64 Price under the SSI so SELL (Bolded) USD/CAD sell order at 1.30808 Price now at posting 1.30387 I always use myfxbook but...
I'm not concerned what data others analyse, feel free to continue Neil. I will just post from FF as that was the source of my past analysis and interest
Thanks for your contribution.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #120
  • Jul 12, 2019 2:29pm Jul 12, 2019 2:29pm
GBPUSD bulls at 64%.
Still bearish....
Come with me if you want to live....
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