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  • #101
  • Jul 13, 2019 2:04pm Jul 13, 2019 2:04pm
Analysis of the biggest fundamental events last week:

First off: Jul 9 14:45 Powell speak

The graph shows EUR/USD price (red) volume (green) on the day and time of speak at the yellow line.
Notice how herd mostly on the day tried to pull the price down, the day after it rose.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9julypowell.JPG Size: 121 KB
  • #102
  • Jul 13, 2019 2:22pm Jul 13, 2019 2:22pm
Jul 10

10:30 GBP - GDP and Manufacturing Production

The first graph shows GBP/USD on the day, second shows graph starting from news release.
On the day it's pretty mixed with the retail as losers as usual. This becomes more clear on the second graph which shows a desperate attempt at pushing it down throughout the next day with surrender to follow.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10julygbpusd.JPG Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 10julygbpusd2.JPG Size: 140 KB
  • #103
  • Jul 13, 2019 2:35pm Jul 13, 2019 2:35pm
Jul 10

14:30 USD - Powell testifies

20:00 - FOMC

EUR/USD reacted as attached: Powel comment caused price to jump on announcement. Volume stayed cool and tried holding price down, had to capitulate as price won the tugwar. FOMC didn't create that much volatility and the pattern from the day continued.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10julyeurusd.JPG Size: 128 KB
  • #104
  • Jul 13, 2019 5:59pm Jul 13, 2019 5:59pm
Jul 10

16:30 CAD - Rate statement
17:15 - BOC press conference

USD/CAD reacted as attached.
Volume and price followed each other mostly, but with volume in a bit of control.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10julyusdcad.JPG Size: 95 KB
  • #105
  • Jul 13, 2019 7:35pm Jul 13, 2019 7:35pm
Jul 11

12:00 - GBP Carney speak

Retail was heavily short GBP/USD when the speech began as seen on attached:
They got punished for that. Price control with the volume being behind.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11julygbp.JPG Size: 118 KB
  • #106
  • Jul 13, 2019 7:47pm Jul 13, 2019 7:47pm
Jul 11

14:30 - USD CPI
16:00 Powell testifies

EUR/USD Volume was in control throughout the day. Notice how the price was pumped prior to news and then return first down to volume and then up again later and the next day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11julyeurusd.JPG Size: 133 KB
  • #107
  • Jul 13, 2019 7:59pm Jul 13, 2019 7:59pm
Jul 12

14:30 - USD PPI

EUR/USD following each other mostly but with a bit of volume control. Notice how especially at news event price drops while volume holds, making price search back up towards volume line.

That concludes the analysis of high impact events last week. Hope it helped for the understanding while being visually helpful as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12julyeurusd.JPG Size: 110 KB
  • #108
  • Jul 13, 2019 11:31pm Jul 13, 2019 11:31pm
Quoting Lekkim
04 July/fifth-day status: 1 trade closed today in 29p profit, bringing our total profit up to 257 pips still without a loss. But, 1 position open (AUD/NZD sell) currently stands at a loss of -27p. It's been a quiet day on the markets, hopefully we'll get some more action going tomorrow.
Remember our AUD/NZD trade?

The last 'thread trade' I closed to switch focus to also try proving just counter retail.
Attached shows how the AUD/NZD pair continued. The yellow line marks entry and exit. Notice how extreme the price jump was compared to volume. That was why we continued holding it, even though it went against us like no other so far in the thread. It later continued searching down towards volume baseline last week. And then yes according to the theory, it still looks like a solid sell though according to that calculation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdlookback.JPG Size: 106 KB
  • #109
  • Jul 13, 2019 11:59pm Jul 13, 2019 11:59pm
I haven't mentioned, that this theory and method can be applied to other markets than FX as well, as long as there is enough client liquidity in those market.
This, for example, can be stock-indices, gold, and oil.
  • #110
  • Jul 14, 2019 12:31am Jul 14, 2019 12:31am
Some of the forex related financial market software/services/products I've tested and have experience with including some of my own research:

Trading software and services
- MT4&5
- Reuters Eikon
- Bloomberg Terminal
- Saxo Trader
- cTrader
- Nordnet
- Degiro
- Bookmap
- Efxnews

Personal research and testing:
- EA backtesting reliability
- VIX and other volatility products
- Twitter users with relevant FX tweets like big news/rumors announcers
- Following the money in crypto (for example how BTC and other coins were affected after short selling became available)
- Research into currency fixings times
- Research into sentiment and open interest in currency futures and options market at CME.
- Most correlation theories
- Most indicators
- Most other financial markets, but mainly in regard to their relationship with the forex market.

Feel free to ask me about my experience with the above.
  • #111
  • Jul 14, 2019 10:45am Jul 14, 2019 10:45am
Hi Lekkim, thanks for ask about your experience. interest topics to me sentimet and correlation...
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #112
  • Jul 14, 2019 11:53am Jul 14, 2019 11:53am
Quoting jusiur
Hi Lekkim, thanks for ask about your experience. interest topics to me sentimet and correlation...
Hi jusiur

Thanks, you're welcome.
Ok is there something, in particular, you want to ask about sentiment and/or correlation?
  • #113
  • Jul 14, 2019 12:17pm Jul 14, 2019 12:17pm
I am passionate and have developed a wide study with respect to both topics, I have learned from many points of view with great applicability to trading especially in reference to contrarian.
With respect to correlation, it was not only until I understood the concepts of neilsdigest where I could assess the applicability in practice at some point.
For me a concept can reach a great difference in the approach to trading, so I would like to know what personal appreciation you have in general at this moment of your experience and learning as an epilogue or conclusions about the two topics.
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #114
  • Jul 14, 2019 6:32pm Jul 14, 2019 6:32pm
Quoting jusiur
I am passionate and have developed a wide study with respect to both topics, I have learned from many points of view with great applicability to trading especially in reference to contrarian. With respect to correlation, it was not only until I understood the concepts of neilsdigest where I could assess the applicability in practice at some point. For me a concept can reach a great difference in the approach to trading, so I would like to know what personal appreciation you have in general at this moment of your experience and learning as an epilogue...

Sounds interesting, jusiur

Contrarian: Finally became in a position of broad market overview raw retail client data. Been testing this theory for many years with all possible data sources I could find, but got burned some times because of unreliable insufficient (liquidity) data.

Correlation:
Quoting Lekkim
I'm a fan of graphs and these time-random attached charts give a visual overview of markets (these got nothing to do with the price/volume theory though) I like to share some screens I look at on an everyday level, might spark some ideas for fellow traders. (But I don't use these in trade decisions, because of their irrelevance to the theory, which remains my best 'product' developed) First shows US bonds and exotics. Rising yields normally are markets bullish and falling bearish. But also the yield curve inversion is important to take into consideration....
Each market can be split into both bullish and bearish elements like mentioned in earlier post. For example in an overall bullish market AUD, NZD, CAD, Stock indices, oil, bonds, and exotics would tend to rise, while in a bearish market JPY, CHF, USD and XAU/gold would tend to rise and vice versa.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: alternativemarketoverview.JPG Size: 196 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: alternativemarketoverview2.JPG Size: 110 KB
  • #115
  • Jul 14, 2019 8:14pm Jul 14, 2019 8:14pm
interesting approach you have here, thanks for open your mind with us, really really love your charts, any insight how we can emulate something silmilar? any clue what platafform are you using? ... naturally is your edge and you´r many years work, I can understand and respect that, no need for spoon feed but that gereral market overview is amazing !!
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #116
  • Jul 15, 2019 2:46am Jul 15, 2019 2:46am
Quoting jusiur
interesting approach you have here, thanks for open your mind with us, really really love your charts, any insight how we can emulate something silmilar? any clue what platafform are you using? ... naturally is your edge and you´r many years work, I can understand and respect that, no need for spoon feed but that gereral market overview is amazing !!
I appreciate your compliments, really.
I put a great deal of effort into this thread trying to make my theory understandable with many visuals. Also sharing some non-volume related which I find potentially helpful for fellow traders.

It depends on which of the charts you are referring too. Is it the 8 currency strength matrix or the alternative market overview? I guess I probably can share/guide you with it, it's only my source of the raw retail volume data I hesitate about.
  • #117
  • Jul 16, 2019 9:13am Jul 16, 2019 9:13am
Can't find your web site Lekkim?
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #118
  • Jul 16, 2019 7:56pm Jul 16, 2019 7:56pm
I decided not to continue counter retail demo.

It was in a loss after several days of retail winning. If I was to continue I would have deposited more and continued the approach by constantly adding new retail positions. Like I mentioned before this little experiment started, according to the theory it would be a matter of time before it bounced back and retail clients once again would be paying for the party. Due to it not being automated it took a lot of my time and the point of this thread was the more advanced tug of war volume analysis where price and divergence is is included. (like I did the first few weeks of this thread)

This experiment of only counter volume was then not really a success. The demo ran into retail winning days from the beginning. It's the same in the gambling industry, the house doesn't always win (only in the long run) you gotta let the players win from time to time. However I still believe speculation against the herd is a factor in the market, but the egde ain't enough. It was also in contrast to some of the previous post. For example, when the tug of war showed last week how AUD/NZD still remained a strong sell, it doesn't make much sense to buy it heavily in demo.

That demo consumed a lot of my time and took my focus away from the tug of war volume analysis. I will be setting up a new demo with only my best trading decisions and comment on it alongside the thread.
  • #119
  • Jul 17, 2019 11:39pm Jul 17, 2019 11:39pm
Tug of war demo: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Lekkim/tug-war/3435982

I will be the trading account with 500 leverage and use 2,5% of equity per trade.
  • #120
  • Jul 17, 2019 11:50pm Jul 17, 2019 11:50pm
Just entered AUD/JPY sell (current best intraday trade, volume don't support price jump)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 18julyaudjpy.JPG Size: 51 KB
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