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Trading fx fundamentals

  • #241
  • Jul 11, 2019 7:51am Jul 11, 2019 7:51am
After careful deliberation, I have decided to leave the forum permanently and as of next week, the site will be effectively become what I originally intended it to be - my personal trading journal. It was friends who trade professionally that suggested I commercialise it as the content is valuable but in doing so the following has happened

1) site members emailing me with ridiculous demands
2) site members who took a 2-week trial, didn't signup but continue to use the service after I opened it up - it is not like it was costing a lot, the price of a weeks worth of coffee and some were even complaining about that!
3) site members who pay, asked for a refund which I gave, then continue to use the service after I opened it up
4) 81 downloads of the trading strategy on this forum, 150 downloads on the site, and not a single question. It is highly doubtful that the document is perfect and answers every question. What has surfaced in some correspondence with people learning to trade looking at is their expectations. People want a strategy that is like a red light green light system that requires no thinking and little effort. They expect riches from this expectation and run like hell when they see any work required. I spent several days with people over the last week who don't know how to trade, are interested in the strategy, but upon seeing the required work they walked away.

So, in a nutshell, I am removing myself from all forums, all engagements regarding trading and if anyone who is genuine about trading fundamentals and understands the value of the research for their trading, they can still access the service but only it won't be free and there will be no trials. The only positive I have had from this experience so far is one member who really took it all in and committed told me yesterday he has had his best month ever making 10% so far and he still has 14 days of the month left. It can be done if the effort is put in.

To everyone here that has participated and seemingly now find yourself affected by my decision, I apologise for the inconvenience and thank you all for the support and contributions. I will be cutting down parts of the site that won't be needed anymore including the forum and data flash (i will be using Eikon going forward). I will not be returning to respond to anyone and this is going to be my last post here or on any other forum for the foreseeable future. I am not interested in creating a small group of traders to work with because I frankly would rather spend the time on my own trading and transitioning to full-time without the bullshit of public commitments or dealing with members of the site as stated above.


I realise this decision is abrupt and some of you will be disappointed. If you have been through what I have then you might have made the same decision. Anyway, I wish you all the best with your trading and in life. I won't be signing back in to respond and this is my last post on this forum for the foreseeable future.
  • #242
  • Jul 11, 2019 8:01am Jul 11, 2019 8:01am
Wise decision bro LOL

We all tried it in past and got same results, people really dont care "free stuff" neither they are grateful to any one.

most people dont even have the courtesy to say " Thankyou".

do not waste your time and energy, unless some one in real comes up for help from you.


KEEP IT STRICTLY PROFESSIONAL AND CHARGE EVERY THING YOU WANT TO SHARE. THATS THE WAY TO GET ATTENTION IN THIS WORLD.
Allergic to bullshitters, never argue with fools
  • #243
  • Jul 11, 2019 8:09am Jul 11, 2019 8:09am
Wow well I respect your decision Eco. I wish you well on your journey. I give credit where credit is due but you made fundamentals a little more fun and I would like to say I enjoyed my first time listening to Fed Chair Powell give out hints on their forward guidance. Thanks for the help and I enjoyed your work.

Cheers
  • #244
  • Jul 11, 2019 8:17am Jul 11, 2019 8:17am
Quoting EcoTrader
After careful deliberation, I have decided to leave the forum permanently and as of next week, the site will be effectively become what I originally intended it to be - my personal trading journal. It was friends who trade professionally that suggested I commercialise it as the content is valuable but in doing so the following has happened 1) site members emailing me with ridiculous demands 2) site members who took a 2-week trial, didn't signup but continue to use the service after I opened it up - it is not like it was costing a lot, the price...
We would like for you to stay. But at the same time I understand. I have signed up to your fundamental website. ASAP when my free trial ends, I will sign up to pay monthly fee not a problem. I am learning a lot from you. Not yet there but it is helpful with news trading, compare to in the past where I did not understand fundamental news. I will be on your news website and will email if I have any questions. I do have questions, but will have to find time to sit down and write them all down. Trade safe.
  • #245
  • Jul 11, 2019 2:48pm Jul 11, 2019 2:48pm
Quoting EcoTrader
After careful deliberation, I have decided to leave the forum permanently and as of next week, the site will be effectively become what I originally intended it to be - my personal trading journal. It was friends who trade professionally that suggested I commercialise it as the content is valuable but in doing so the following has happened 1) site members emailing me with ridiculous demands 2) site members who took a 2-week trial, didn't signup but continue to use the service after I opened it up - it is not like it was costing a lot, the price...
I agree with your sentiments. Sorry to see you go, there are too few of us preaching the value of Fundamentals.
I have downloaded your document - just to see how much it varied from my own news trading technique. Your document is a decent base from which interested technical traders can start to get a handle on how to trade fundamentals and news events. I also signed up for your free trial as well, and I am impressed with your content, though truth be told I am swamped with good content these days.
As you know I am prohibited (by NDA) of sharing any details of the techniques that I use. Many are the same or similar to yours, except that I use more 'Value based' techniques such as Bonds and Equities as a way of seeing how the big guys are pre-judging the outcomes.

I find it interesting that one of my biggest critics in my own thread is now seeing the value in Fundamentals in your thread and site.
-Well there are still plenty more 'technicals only' traders to take the other side of my 'value based' trades - LOL !

Best wishes,
Ian
  • #246
  • Jul 11, 2019 8:21pm Jul 11, 2019 8:21pm
And well you are always welcome to come back. Nothing is set in stone.

I apologize for my part if your expectations were not met with regards to any rapid development that would come from those interested in your work. Your content is a gold mine. I know I have a different understanding about the use of fundamentals, I guess partly because I think there's still a lot to learn. Still thanks for setting this stage for its importance. It is great reading to your posts and trying my best to reverse engineer it :d What are you looking at anyway and how did you come up with them? Then again I just refer to your news trader document because I know you left plenty of clues to busy noobs.

Sincerely

Alex
  • #247
  • Jul 13, 2019 5:14pm Jul 13, 2019 5:14pm
Eco, did you go through the same process in starting your website?
Inserted Video
  • #248
  • Jul 20, 2019 2:17am Jul 20, 2019 2:17am
Quoting EcoTrader
After careful deliberation, I have decided to leave the forum permanently and as of next week, the site will be effectively become what I originally intended it to be - my personal trading journal. It was friends who trade professionally that suggested I commercialise it as the content is valuable but in doing so the following has happened 1) site members emailing me with ridiculous demands 2) site members who took a 2-week trial, didn't signup but continue to use the service after I opened it up - it is not like it was costing a lot, the price...
You have done well. You have chosen a field where there is little competition.

Any new business venture takes time to get established. From my own experience, I would give it 10 years.
Important is you should know what the market is demanding and make saleable products.
In spite of doing it all, if you don't focus on acquiring sales leads, the business will become a burden.
News trading was quite attractive when online fx business started taking roots in 2002.
Everybody trading straddles with pending orders made money before the market makers started raising ask-bid spreads to 90 pips (or 900 points) to defeat straddle traders.
Jimmy Young used to teach news trading those days. An unusual mentor who never insisted on a client paying upfront but only after the course was taught. Because of the spreads rising just on the eve of the news trading killed his mentorship business as well.

A number of websites mushroomed later but did not last long.

A handful players are in the market since last 10 years . Looks like they are not getting a good response from individual traders. Two of them have re-branded themselves and now are pitching for institutional clients. newsimpact and fasteconomicnews.

Their services offer a replay of past news events in addition to educating the traders on the impact of news events. Traders try to compare fx pairs and find which one spiked the most for a particular news release. The idea is to guess deviation and do some binary trading.

Digital marketing is a very expensive affair. Selling indicators, systems, signals don't really work unless they are supported by powerful copywriters and cold calling, which is banned.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #249
  • Jul 20, 2019 8:37am Jul 20, 2019 8:37am
Quoting EcoTrader
After careful deliberation, I have decided to leave the forum permanently and as of next week, the site will be effectively become what I originally intended it to be - my personal trading journal. It was friends who trade professionally that suggested I commercialise it as the content is valuable but in doing so the following has happened 1) site members emailing me with ridiculous demands 2) site members who took a 2-week trial, didn't signup but continue to use the service after I opened it up - it is not like it was costing a lot, the price...
Sorry you have made this decision Eco but I'm not surprised, newbies want quick sexy trading that'll give instant profits with little or no draw-down and little work! I'm fascinated with fundies but I do trade profitably using a Price Following and probability style. I have tried explaining it to some eager newbies, but Price Following is boring and repetitive and involves lots of tiny losses and they just loose interest preferring technical analysis. TA or price prediction is so much more exiting with lots of silly patterns and waves and doesn't need much work, very attractive! But in the long term is very very difficult to make money consistently!
  • #250
  • Sep 26, 2019 4:56pm Sep 26, 2019 4:56pm
I wish you could come back and teach these stuff Eco, the more content you have shown, it seems to me the ideas are becoming clearer and clearer. I have some questions with regards scheduled and unscheduled news though. Tuning to daily sentiment. And oh btw, please keep teaching via your blog. It is a great resource!!!
  • #251
  • Sep 29, 2019 9:32pm Sep 29, 2019 9:32pm
Quoting EcoTrader
The only positive I have had from this experience so far is one member who really took it all in and committed told me yesterday he has had his best month ever making 10% so far and he still has 14 days of the month left.
To the person Eco mentioned in this thread who made 10% of a particular month, can you reveal yourself to me? DM if you wish. I have questions to ask you.
  • #252
  • Oct 1, 2019 11:26am Oct 1, 2019 11:26am
Quoting Alexandrize
{quote} To the person Eco mentioned in this thread who made 10% of a particular month, can you reveal yourself to me? DM if you wish. I have questions to ask you.
Crazy! - Why would you want to contact somebody who had a (perhaps one-off) month of +10%?
Don't you realise that by using (mainly) fundamentals it is possible to make more like 10% per week (and very occasionally 10% in a single day)?

Actually a 10% day is a poor day for the guys I am thinking of, one of whom has not had a losing day for years and has made over 100% in a day several times this year and in 2018 and in 2017 etc.

I suggest that you read my thread to see what is possible.
And no I am not selling anything - just suggesting 2 different courses suitable for 2 different types of trader, from 2 different vendors neither of which pay me for a reccomendation!
  • #253
  • Oct 11, 2019 4:42am Oct 11, 2019 4:42am
I'm a lousy trader - but much better than most!

The reasons I am better than most are because:
1. I have been taught by probably the best. Taught both Fundamentals and OrderFlow (though I don't use Orderflow much- its too fast for me).
2. I have found a style and some markets (Major currency pairs for News, Oil for Inventories, Oil at major levels) that works for me.
3. I use a money/trade management system that suits my personality (multiple units, plus scaling both in and out).

Here is a short record of all my completed trading days so far in October - just so you know that I was not hypeing or B*S*ing in my post above:

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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That is a profit of $5400 over 7 trading days (or more meaningfully a profit of 18%).
  • #254
  • Nov 21, 2019 1:36pm Nov 21, 2019 1:36pm
Quoting EcoTrader
6 months ago I was on a mission to make my life trading fx fundamentals easier. Building and maintaining a foundation knowledge on central bank policy and the economy for the 8 economies I trade is time consuming. So my mission was to find services that I could use to consolidate and simplify. After spending weeks trawling through every search engine link, I realised it didn't exist. I would have to be the research analysts and a trader and this didn't really bother me much because I don't see this as work but more of a constant need to feed my...
Good evening sir can i have the site name im really interested in trading fundementals and learning on how i can trade them ive been learning different things but i struggle to gather information sometimes
  • #255
  • Mar 14, 2020 11:59am Mar 14, 2020 11:59am
No apologies for going off topic.
Off topic, but how about instead of just making money from it.
Why not help by joining international volunteer group to stop the Covid-19 outbreak?
See this Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/sta...67530638282752
They have a group Slack workspace, which I have joined, for organising and sharing ideas.

They are looking for organising skills, technical skills down to people to deliver food to those self isolating and vulnerable, or just people with contacts/influence to find others with skills etc.
  • #256
  • Jun 15, 2020 3:41am Jun 15, 2020 3:41am
hi everyone

Thought i would provide an update. The new service is still very much in development. I massively underestimated the work however i should be reasonable and state that the path has changed significantly. At the present time i am building a service that will provide

1) indices representing central bank sentiment
2) indices representing aggregated economic data with specific formulas and weightings and inclusive of the central bank sentiment component.
3) API for developers wanting to use the data
4) indicators for trading platforms that delivers the data to your trading terminals


The reason things have gone very quiet is because number 1 is taking up a significant amount of time. I am extracting 20 years of central bank statements and speeches from 8 central banks and scoring each sentence manually (about 20 000 sentences to score). This is then fed into AI to train models that will be used to build central bank sentiment. I have selected 20 years as it provides a professional level of back testing and provides AI with a wide range of examples for deep learning. These models will process statements and speeches and will be constantly retrained with new data to be kept current.

Once this is done i will be moving onto the index components and have teamed up with a guy with a PHD in math, and who currently works for a hedge fund, to build custom formulas for each economy to represent the type of economy, and its relationship with other countries. So Australia for example will have a China economy component to the index. We have tested the concepts on the US economy with excellent correlation to price. At the end of the day these indices will take away any thinking required when building a picture of fundamentals of an economy.

So to anyone waiting, i do apologize but i want to ensure this provides a very high standard of quality. The economies that are included initially and might be extended subject to availability of machine processable data by the central bank.

US
CN
EU
UK
AU
NZ
JP
CA

As to the timings of becoming available. I estimate about 3-4 months more of work on building the AI training datasets and about 6 months after that to define build and test indices. The site and service might take another 3-6 months after that to build so all in we are looking at 1.5 to potentially 2 years of work to get operational. This might seem like a long wait and it is but i do not plan on doing all this work for a sh!t product as i also intend to use it to build new trading strategies and also have some or full automation available on secondary accounts.

I do not expect to provide regular updates but wanted to let you all know the show will go on.
  • #257
  • Edited 2:34am Oct 16, 2020 1:22am | Edited 2:34am
I wanted to share something I found in building the economic data indices that I wanted to share.

There is an inverse relationship between foreign fx reserves and a country's ccy movement. To show this I inverted it and overlayed over USD going back 20 years. Ignore the first orange data point because its due to an average calculation so isn't a real data point.

The blue line is USD and orange line is foreign fx reserves.

You're welcome.


By the way, fluctuations in the reserves lead changes in the ccy, not the other way around

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  • #258
  • Oct 16, 2020 2:56am Oct 16, 2020 2:56am
some of the good stuff on the way.
Orange line is a composition of leading indicators working with the reserve changes offer excellent directional bias notification

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  • #259
  • Oct 23, 2020 12:42am Oct 23, 2020 12:42am
Quoting EcoTrader
I wanted to share something I found in building the economic data indices that I wanted to share. There is an inverse relationship between foreign fx reserves and a country's ccy movement. To show this I inverted it and overlayed over USD going back 20 years. Ignore the first orange data point because its due to an average calculation so isn't a real data point. The blue line is USD and orange line is foreign fx reserves. You're welcome. By the way, fluctuations in the reserves lead changes in the ccy, not the other way around {image}
I think the inverse relationship is quite logical. Look at the long USD decline on your
chart as an example. I know of few countries (if any) whose economies flourish over a longer
time period while their currency continues to depreciate. The currency value IS the long time
thermometer of a country's economic- and financial health. A country which currency is
going down, might use its (foreign) currency reserves to defend its currency and, more importantly,
usually gets into a negative current account, which necessitates it to dig in their foreign currency
reserves to pay the import bills.
  • #260
  • Oct 26, 2020 8:20am Oct 26, 2020 8:20am
Wow this FX Fundamental information is way out of this world, this can help me a lot in trading. Thank you EcoTrader for this post.
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