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Tug of war in market flows

  • #81
  • Jul 9, 2019 1:26pm Jul 9, 2019 1:26pm
I've set up a demo trading exactly against my retail volume source.

Data from today 10:15 and trading started at 13:15 taking opposite positions from the period 10:15 - 13:15. Then around each hour I've looked at new volume and added opposite. This I continued throughout the day and will continue to do in my awake hours.
  • #82
  • Jul 9, 2019 1:37pm Jul 9, 2019 1:37pm
Here is myfxbook demo link: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Lekkim/lekkim/3400061

It reports everything in there and it's a fun little experiment. They update it around each 4h as far as I remember.
(It's a random broker and not a recommendation of brokers choice, not good spreads either)
  • #83
  • Jul 9, 2019 1:48pm Jul 9, 2019 1:48pm
Quoting Lekkim
Let me also remind you, that the analyzing/comparing with the price and looking at the tug of war, makes this method even better. The first trades I did here so far ended in a 213p profit with 10 profitable trades, 1 breakeven and 1 loss with were with this. Like I mentioned earlier this week, I now want to try prove that 'just' counter retail volume also should be profitable (talked about this in my first post)
Hi lekkim

this is also interesting but when you gonna tradeagain the price tug like last week it went good
  • #84
  • Jul 9, 2019 2:14pm Jul 9, 2019 2:14pm
Quoting Lekkim
Here is myfxbook demo link: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Lekkim/lekkim/3400061 It reports everything in there and it's a fun little experiment. They update it around each 4h as far as I remember. (It's a random broker and not a recommendation of brokers choice, not good spreads either)
good luck sir I will follow hope u right
  • #85
  • Jul 9, 2019 3:13pm Jul 9, 2019 3:13pm
Quoting Liarg
{quote} Hi lekkim this is also interesting but when you gonna tradeagain the price tug like last week it went good
Hello Liarg

Thanks!
Because the idea of the opposite retail volume is a base of my tug of war method. Also, there's a lot of interest in this in many threads, but nobody yet to prove it in real time. I believe it's a step for people to start believing in this theory, I might started out too complicated with the price and tug of war included. After this, I will go back to the more advanced level of analysis of the data.
  • #86
  • Jul 10, 2019 1:27pm Jul 10, 2019 1:27pm
Quoting Lekkim
Here is myfxbook demo link: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Lekkim/lekkim/3400061 It reports everything in there and it's a fun little experiment. They update it around each 4h as far as I remember. (It's a random broker and not a recommendation of brokers choice, not good spreads either)
The demo 'experiment' goes well and in a satisfying profit already.
I'll continue trading against retail volume and we'll see how it goes.
  • #87
  • Jul 10, 2019 8:13pm Jul 10, 2019 8:13pm
I've unfortunately discovered a calculation mistake in my demo approach.
I noticed a disorder in total positions comparing with my trades. Turned out I had an error in excel calculation which led to trading mistakes from my side.

This is fixed now. Instead of re-entering new trades by the change since the last update, the calculation will keep updating the total positions and then I'll change/add to current trades which then is in total since out time period started Jul 9 10:15.

Closed everything and added new correct total positions. This led to account dropping to the 9200 area. But we will continue and glad I noticed the mistake.
  • #88
  • Jul 10, 2019 8:57pm Jul 10, 2019 8:57pm
Since demo start attached.
The demo is only counter retail, so there's gonna be a general counter-trend in this, the edge will be laying in between the flows.
Attached Image
  • #89
  • Jul 10, 2019 9:44pm Jul 10, 2019 9:44pm
This is the calculation I will use to update our demo with.

It automatically calculates into what margin each pair in our demo should be. Then I will update it each hour or so in my awake time, adjust our counter retail volume with new positions. I think this is the easiest and most accurate way to trade against retail. But if you fellow traders got any good ideas, I am open ears. Also, does anyone knows if cTrader-software and excel can be integrated together for further automatization? In Metatrader this should be able to integrate probably, but now this time cTrader was chosen for demo.
Attached Image
  • #90
  • Jul 11, 2019 2:40am Jul 11, 2019 2:40am
Back in profit:
Attached Image
  • #91
  • Jul 11, 2019 7:06am Jul 11, 2019 7:06am
Quoting Lekkim
Last week retail volume attached: {image} {image}
The market started trading against last week retail volume.
Illustrated in the current week graph, the greener the more it was sold last week and vice versa with red.
Attached Images
  • #92
  • Jul 11, 2019 7:37am Jul 11, 2019 7:37am
So far so good on our demo:
Attached Image
  • #93
  • Jul 11, 2019 10:05am Jul 11, 2019 10:05am
Demo just updated.
It's looking promising and is up 15% with 757 pips profit and with a profit factor of 1.27.
  • #94
  • Jul 11, 2019 1:44pm Jul 11, 2019 1:44pm
Attach is the price development since start on Jul 9 10:15 and current demo holdings:

(Despite calculation error) our counter retail 'experiment' so far stands at:

12.700 (started at 10.000)
795 trades
1485 pips
Profit factor 1.41

I will continue updating this tomorrow and we will take a status on it tomorrow.
Attached Images
  • #95
  • Jul 12, 2019 7:46am Jul 12, 2019 7:46am
Thank you for your interest and messages!
I will try to answer some frequently asked questions here:

I'm sharing whatever I can without giving away my edge and risk other copying my source.

Tug of war is volume and price compared and closer looking at flows = speed of increase and decrease in the two. It also takes volume size compared to 'normal' into consideration

Right now I'm not trading real because I don't have the capital. I've spent so much time and money over many years on this project. Trading right now is not a full-time thing for me, but I wish it to be soon, that's also why I'm sharing my project to potentially get interested investors. But also to teach other traders some of my learned knowledge, strategies, and ideas. I had the final breakthrough a few months ago where I think I 'broke' the code. So I am optimistic.

Financial market and FX been my main interest and passion in my life ever since my teenage years.
I got a degree in financial management.
Been searching for an edge/holy grail for so long and now what I've got looks like it got potential.
  • #96
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:07am Jul 12, 2019 8:07am
Trading experiment that trades exactly opposite of retail volume been running for three days now and with satisfying results, let's hope it continues proving the theory.

Stats:

36% profit
2259 pips
1.71 profit factor
887 trades
  • #97
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:13am Jul 12, 2019 8:13am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: statdemo.jpg Size: 79 KB

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Lekkim/lekkim/3400061
  • #98
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:33am Jul 12, 2019 8:33am
Nice lekkim keep it up!
will you continue next week how long u run demo sir?
  • #99
  • Jul 12, 2019 8:48am Jul 12, 2019 8:48am
Quoting Liarg
Nice lekkim keep it up! will you continue next week how long u run demo sir?
Gracias, Liarg

Yes I will. And I will update here in thread step by step and if I change approach.
  • #100
  • Jul 12, 2019 3:26pm Jul 12, 2019 3:26pm
Attached shows currencies from experiment start. The colors represent only our current trades, not previous.
Also attached is a diagram of current holdings. We will be taking all open trades with us through the weekend and new week.
Good weekend to all.
Attached Image
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