Joined Apr 2019
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Status: Crypto fanatic
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For explaining/showing purposes I attached a chart showing the current biggest pair mover this week (CAD/CHF and this is not a trade)
Notice how, like usual/most often, the retail clients get slaughtered.
Joined Apr 2019
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Status: Crypto fanatic
|1,589 Posts
04 July/fifth-day status:
1 trade closed today in 29p profit, bringing our total profit up to 257 pips still without a loss.
But, 1 position open (AUD/NZD sell) currently stands at a loss of -27p.
It's been a quiet day on the markets, hopefully we'll get some more action going tomorrow.
Joined Apr 2019
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Status: Crypto fanatic
|1,589 Posts
Quote
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By itself, this got potential for counter trading these data, due to most retail clients losing money
This coming trading week I will try to back up the previous claim by trading exactly against retail clients, regardless of price. (comparing with price can increase attractiveness and is another level to this method, but first, let me try to prove my previous points by posting live retail new positions data)
{quote} This coming trading week I will try to back up the previous claim by trading exactly against retail clients, regardless of price. (comparing with price can increase attractiveness and is another level to this method, but first, let me try to prove my previous points by posting live retail new positions data)
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I really like your concept and will be happy to be active on your thread. But before that I will be glad if I will get your indicators
Joined Apr 2019
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Status: Crypto fanatic
|1,589 Posts
I will present the data in percentage% of all 8 currencies. Along the way, I'll be updating.
Below is attached a screenshot of how it's gonna look (example). This calculation shows retail volume activity and trading the opposite is simple. If this was a live example it would suggest I traded exactly this: AUD sell 16,6, NZD sell 17,7, CAD sell 13,6, GBP buy 15,1, EUR buy 18,5, USD sell 2,1, CHF buy 11,0, JPY buy 5,4.
{quote} I really like your concept and will be happy to be active on your thread. But before that I will be glad if I will get your indicators
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Thank you Ayaaba, sounds good.
(Since I could not send you a private message, I'll respond here) For now, I started sharing the theory and planning to continue proving it.
In regard to indicators, this contains a lot of elements, both raw data, software, and indicators. I'm currently not planning on sharing key indicators. I've myself invested a lot of time and money developing it, hope for your understanding of this. Maybe if you want to analyze or copy trades, I will be updating trades live in real time in the thread, feel free to follow and/or get ideas of your own.
However, I would be potentially open for something like a partnership, investor for funding or/and managed accounts in the future. But for now, my focus is on final adjustments and backing up my project here in this thread + getting and sharing inputs from trader peers.
Entering AUD/NZD sell at 1.0473. (Open trades below) {image}
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Closing this at a 1.0517 at a 44p loss, ending our profit run bringing our total profit down to 213p.
No open trades now. I will be focusing on mostly counter retail crowd (regardless) of price next couple of days.
Joined Apr 2019
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Status: Crypto fanatic
|1,589 Posts
Volume today now:
When analyzing the intraday volume, the '8 currencies % matrix' changes fast.
I've now uploaded a few real-time situations to give you the idea about how the flows go.
I'm thinking about might setting up a demo and let it be tracked and reported by myfxbook, then I could trade this approach (because intraday goes too fast for me to be able to update thread time enough)
{quote} Lekkim what does it mean when the retail volume gragh is pointing at positive and negative respectively
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Ayaaba,
It's a percentage summary of the raw retail volume data.
That means, for example, if let's say that the GBP is pointing down 50%, then it tells that 50% of all retail positions activity was selling GBP.
Which, according to the theory, would mean buying 50% of raw volume data or whatever else way you wanna trade it, there are many opportunities.
The only disadvantage about 'just' knowing the percentage, is not knowing the raw volume total.
Let's say there were two days in a row with 50% volume selling GBP, if the total volume was twice as large on one of the days, it would mean to adjust the percentage according to the total volume if ones want to trade EXACTLY against/opposite of retail volume.
Joined Apr 2019
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Status: Crypto fanatic
|1,589 Posts
I'm about to set up a demo account to be followed by myfxbook. Here I will try to trade exactly against the raw retail volume. The theory then is, that it only would be a matter of time before it would turn into profit if retail generally loses.
If it was to be fully automated, it would be able to trade itself, I've tried automating and optimize update speed the best I could, so for now at least, I will be needed to crunch the raw data down to software, indicators and trade decisions. So if I will do a demo with the approach talked about above, I need to have update times.
It takes me about 5-10 minutes for one data calculation, so I'm planning to update market situation each 30m/1h where I will add opposite positions of retail, then repeat that for the rest of the chosen time period.
Joined Apr 2019
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Status: Crypto fanatic
|1,589 Posts
Let me also remind you, that the analyzing/comparing with the price and looking at the tug of war, makes this method even better. The first trades I did here so far ended in a 213p profit with 10 profitable trades, 1 breakeven and 1 loss with were with this.
Like I mentioned earlier this week, I now want to try prove that 'just' counter retail volume also should be profitable (talked about this in my first post)
