Trading fx fundamentals

USDCAD daily support broken. Possibility for longer term bearish.

AUD retail rose by 0.1%. AUD bullish.

sure?

Going to be a quiet day folks. I won't be doing any trading today. Tomorrow is the jobs report where a meet or beat on expectations should lead to profit taking opportunity. It would need to be a sizeable miss on expectations to drive the dollar deeper. When looking at this stuff you have to always be mindful of the journey. The market has priced in a rate cut by the Fed so there isn't much meat left on the bone. The dollar has felt the heat since Powell signalled lower rates. The show can't go on like this and it doesn't so with it being Friday tomorrow and a holiday in US today, look for retrace opportunities. Its a counter trend move but a valid one given the circumstances.

Yes sure.

Even though is lower then forecast, it is still 0.1% in positive. That is why the reaction is to go up. But once that move happened, as you can see, it went down again. Could have taken the sell position on, but i am not greedy so i was happy to take about 15 pips on a bullish short move. Trade safe.

Nothing much going on today. Will be back in the morning London time or NY time. Trade safe.

July 5



Today we get the job report for Canada and the US. These central banks are diverging with the FED looking to cut while BOC isn't even discussing the matter. The economic data out the USA has been mixed while on the Canadian side there have been many beats on expectations.
The market will be more sensitive to economic data going forward for the US since the FED switched to dovish. The FED is heavily data dependent to determine how deep they will go and so the market will be more focused on data now and therefore we will see higher volatility, which is good for trading opportunities.
Any further deterioration in the US data will help pave expectations towards additional cuts but you do need to consider how the FED look at this data. They don't look at a single job report they average it over 3-6 months. The US needs to create 100k jobs every month to support the growing economy and the 4-month average is roughly 125k.


US
If wages miss but NFP beats or meet expectations then we will see some $ selling but how much will be dictated by the size of the miss. If wages beat and NFP misses then we have a mixed picture tilted towards USD strength so long as the NFP miss isn't significant. Inflation has been a concern for the FED and wages feed into inflationary pressure. With the USD being weak since Powell any signs of inflation pressure will take the heat off expectations of further cuts after the one expected this month.

If however, we get a beat on both employment numbers and wages then you can expect to see USD strength.


Canada
Depending on the outcome of the US job report, the Canadian report could offer a pairing of strongest against weakest. If one of the scenarios mentioned for the USD weakness materializes and the Canadian jobs report is a beat on expectations then we could see the support in USDCAD that is currently holding price, and been in play since 2015, be broken for a move down.

If the Canadian jobs report is a miss and the US a beat then we should see some profit taking on the pair and a bounce off this support area.

If both US and CA job reports meet expectations then volatility is likely to go both ways which isn't an ideal trading scenario and you should step aside and wait for another opportunity that offers more clarity

NFP numbers good. USDCAD going up.

Just closed the profit manually. Have a good weekend everyone. Again thank you Ecotrader for providing us the best information as you can for news trading. It has helped me a lot for these past few weeks, and I do spend much less time on the computer and still earn very good money. Trade safe.

77 pips profit on 2 usdcad trades. Got the initial spike then back in on the retrace. Added 1.75% to the account.

Will post charts when I can, Internet issues at the moment

So happy to hear that. Have a good weekend.

Here are the trades

The job numbers were not just a beat it blew the expectations hats off. The highest of the estimates was 170. The wages were 0.1 weaker than expected but unchanged from the last reading so no deterioration. Cad had a miss on expectations and the deviation between the the 2 offered the perfect pairing. The first trade was the release and the second was on the pullback (off the 1 minute chart using the same dynamic trade management process I outlined in the news trader document )

FYI

I have decided to open the site up for a year for free to anyone who registers. As of now the site is completely free but I have removed some content and services I have to pay for to make it feasible. There is no dataflash and no daily scrum

Going to sign-up then. Thank you Eco.

new feature on the site, forum + chat room

Congrats Eco. Site is looking good.

Looks great. Everything and all in one. Looking forward learning and trading fundamental analysis and mixing it with technicals and price action.

Going to be an interesting week with central banks and tier 1 data so should be a few trades available.

please chart room made later update herei am isn't it sign-up paid service yet

Do you also trade medium impact news or just high impact?