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Trading fx fundamentals

  • #181
  • Jul 3, 2019 12:54am Jul 3, 2019 12:54am
Quoting OutThere
Hi Eco. I'm kinda barging in to ask a quick question. It may have already come up. If so, sorry. Question is, this coming NFP happens to be at the end of a slow groggy week that started with CAD holiday and then USA holiday. Also, it is summer time and a lot of people are probably off doing fun things. So, the market reaction to whatever the report says is probably going to be kind of thin? You think? And comes Monday, sober heads at work, are they going to just validate the Friday's direction or should we expect a more full bodied reaction that...

Morning

The industry tends to take its holiday at the end of July and into August so this release should be fine to trade. This employment report is going to be a bit more interesting than previous ones because the Fed have turned dovish and likely to cut this month. What the markets are now looking at is not July's cut but any evidence that could translate iinto additional cuts down the road. A miss in wages and jobs will add fuel to expectations of additional cuts but it will be not as aggressive as it would if this were the 3rd report that misses. Thats because the Fed average over 3 to 6 months and don't focus on a single report. Conversely a beat on jobs and wages will potentially soften expectations of additional cuts and should leave the dollar bid.
  • #182
  • Jul 3, 2019 1:02am Jul 3, 2019 1:02am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I think because most of us are use to technical analysis and price action/supply demand trading. No matter what, if you are use to it and you do good, you will always go back to that, it's interesting how brain works. I think you provide great information on news trading from my experience so far. But I personally use it on 5 or 15 minute time frame and I still look at the price action. Not sure what to tell you, I guess it is not for everyone just like technical analysis is not for everyone. But you provide great information, i do appreciate...

Hey Techanalyst

Using technical analysis with fundamentals produces more consistent results than technicals alone. All traders would benefit from knowing why the market is moving and if it presents an opportunity. I do realise many have been brainwashed into believing they can do this consistently with only charts, broker client statistics highlights the flaw in that thinking. I guess people are mostly looking for the solution thats technical and haven't yet come to the realisation that it simply doesn't exist. Thanks for offering your view on this I do appreciate the feedback.

Regards
  • #183
  • Jul 3, 2019 1:10am Jul 3, 2019 1:10am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Hey Techanalyst Using technical analysis with fundamentals produces more consistent results than technicals alone. All traders would benefit from knowing why the market is moving and if it presents an opportunity. I do realise many have been brainwashed into believing they can do this consistently with only charts, broker client statistics highlights the flaw in that thinking. I guess people are mostly looking for the solution thats technical and haven't yet come to the realisation that it simply doesn't exist. Thanks for offering your view...
I'd like to add that it's a bit hard to remove of the habit - pattern based thinking especially since it's a visual activity. I still struggle on this myself. I haven't done any serious research just to be honest because of my dayjob but I promise to religious digest your material. I appreciate all your work and the examples you provided.
  • #184
  • Jul 3, 2019 1:12am Jul 3, 2019 1:12am
Quoting Alexandrize
{quote} I guess it's pretty comprehensive if you ask me. I think you provided good enough examples. I was about to ask a question on how to best track central bank communication but then again when I look at the document you just already provided some. I guess most of the people who downloaded it took time to think. :d
Maybe but would have thought more would have questions about specific areas. I couldn't possibly have produced something so complete as to have answered all questions. I think it's a case of people looking for a solution that's technical and easy to solve their trading issues and see a bit of work involved and shove it into the not going to do pile. The potential for this knowledge to transform a failing trader into a successful is there and it works, I have several friends that where struggling and now have growing accounts. Even if ignored from a news trading point of view, it can serve as a filter for trades that won't work. The other thing is that trading strategy is the most time efficient way for someone with a job to be able to trade without it affecting their work. I guess I need to set my expectations for traders who are going through the process in a way that they think is appropriate. Thanks for your feedback.
  • #185
  • Jul 3, 2019 1:17am Jul 3, 2019 1:17am
Quoting Alexandrize
{quote} I'd like to add that it's a bit hard to remove of the habit - pattern based thinking especially since it's a visual activity. I still struggle on this myself. I haven't done any serious research just to be honest because of my dayjob but I promise to religious digest your material. I appreciate all your work and the examples you provided.
Agreed on the pattern viewpoint and find it interesting that in the face of the statistics around failure, people still belive they have any meaningful edge without understanding why price is moving. I can show similar patterns developing in random data and data that isn't trading related.

Regarding your job. Spend some of your evening researching and then in the day you only need to focus on the economic calendar and sentiment. You should be able to trade while you work without it affecting your job.
  • #186
  • Jul 3, 2019 1:21am Jul 3, 2019 1:21am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Agreed on the pattern viewpoint and find it interesting that in the face of the statistics around failure, people still belive they have any meaningful edge without understanding why price is moving. I can show similar patterns developing in random data and data that isn't trading related. Regarding your job. Spend some of your evening researching and then in the day you only need to focus on the economic calendar and sentiment. You should be able to trade while you work without it affecting your job.
Thank you for the exercise! I will try this tonight.
  • #187
  • Jul 3, 2019 5:44am Jul 3, 2019 5:44am
central bank publications are now live with the exception of Japan because it is all in Japanese
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  • #188
  • Jul 3, 2019 5:53am Jul 3, 2019 5:53am
Closed off USDCAD short from the other night for 35 pips.
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  • #189
  • Edited 7:40am Jul 3, 2019 6:42am | Edited 7:40am
Non farm employment change coming up at 8:15am.

ADP still created 102,000 jobs. It is lower than forecast but better than previous. So good for USD i guess EURUSD sell?

CAD news positive so CADJPY up.
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  • #190
  • Jul 3, 2019 7:56am Jul 3, 2019 7:56am
Quoting Techanalyst
Non farm employment change coming up at 8:15am. ADP still created 102,000 jobs. It is lower than forecast but better than previous. So good for USD i guess EURUSD sell? CAD news positive so CADJPY up. {image} {image}

Hey Techanalyst

I don't trade ADP it is too volatile in its releases versus expectations and also in relation to Friday's job report. I have however shorted USDCAD again with the trade surplus (first since December 2016). Currently managing it and looking for this support to break
  • #191
  • Jul 3, 2019 8:02am Jul 3, 2019 8:02am
20 pips bagged, waiting for ISM now. If you at work, this trade took 3 minutes of my time and managing it was casual, not full-on. Trading news is perfect for those who have a job and want consistent results without needing to hold swing trades overnight or utilise wide stops.
  • #192
  • Jul 3, 2019 8:17am Jul 3, 2019 8:17am
Quoting EcoTrader
20 pips bagged, waiting for ISM now. If you at work, this trade took 3 minutes of my time and managing it was casual, not full-on. Trading news is perfect for those who have a job and want consistent results without needing to hold swing trades overnight or utilise wide stops.
Do you see a pullback on USDCAD or continues to go down?
  • #193
  • Jul 3, 2019 8:23am Jul 3, 2019 8:23am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Do you see a pullback on USDCAD or continues to go down?
here was the entry, target was the lows on the daily (the support i am waiting to break - maybe ISM will do it)

If ISM is bad i will get back in
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  • #194
  • Jul 3, 2019 8:46am Jul 3, 2019 8:46am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} here was the entry, target was the lows on the daily (the support i am waiting to break - maybe ISM will do it) If ISM is bad i will get back in {image}
USDCAD 5min.
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  • #195
  • Jul 3, 2019 9:02am Jul 3, 2019 9:02am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} here was the entry, target was the lows on the daily (the support i am waiting to break - maybe ISM will do it) If ISM is bad i will get back in {image}
So actual is bad. That means USDCAD sell?
  • #196
  • Jul 3, 2019 9:06am Jul 3, 2019 9:06am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} So actual is bad. That means USDCAD sell?
It does but we are sitting on some major support
  • #197
  • Jul 3, 2019 9:07am Jul 3, 2019 9:07am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} It does but we are sitting on some major support
I understand. Looking at it now. If it breaks support level, i am selling and waiting about 15 pips to take profit. Will not buy it. I did earn some money this morning on EURUSD sell position closed it manually. Again THANK YOU for providing us with news information it truly is very helpful.
  • #198
  • Jul 3, 2019 9:23am Jul 3, 2019 9:23am
oil inventories up next, could potentially push it through
  • #199
  • Jul 3, 2019 9:58am Jul 3, 2019 9:58am
Looks like it is not breaking support. Could of taken a buy, but that is fine. Earned some money on EURUSD sell position earlier. Will not take any trades now. Will check back tonight around 9:30pm for AUD retail sales news.
  • #200
  • Jul 3, 2019 4:30pm Jul 3, 2019 4:30pm
Quoting Techanalyst
Looks like it is not breaking support. Could of taken a buy, but that is fine. Earned some money on EURUSD sell position earlier. Will not take any trades now. Will check back tonight around 9:30pm for AUD retail sales news.
aud short positions
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