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Trading fx fundamentals

Quoting thisara1
{quote} this week not good me crap markert
It's G20 taking the spotlight. Fundamentals out the window and replaced by politics. It happens more regularly than you think and can be profitable if you always keep yourself informed of these major developing themes and what they mean to sentiment.
  • Post #142
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  • Edited at 4:53pm Jun 26, 2019 1:57pm | Edited at 4:53pm
Hoping to drop the news trader PDF tonight, been a bit busy today and need to read through it again with a fresh mind so that I don't miss anything important and it's format is understandable. I appreciate many of you are finding this difficult and not sure where to start or what to look for. I understand that pain and will do what I can to help those needing additional guidance

Edit: Apologies I didn't have time this evening as I had to attend to an emotional 7-year-old daughter. Looking to get this out the door tomorrow though as a matter of priority in the AM
It's okay! Attend to your family, it is a must Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us.
I have just booked 283 pips off the USDZAR short I entered some days ago. Will look to get back in at some point after the G20.
here it is, the first of a series of educational resources. The next in the series will be swing trading and medium-term trading.
Attached File
File Type: pdf News Trader Trading System.pdf   1.5 MB | 380 downloads
Ready for the G20 showdown today and tomorrow. I am switching over to political news trading today and Sunday at Market open. Fundamentals are currently talking a back seat. You need to be able to identify when to do this and not get frustrated with the situation. Trading politics is profitable, its just a different strategy than standard fundamentals.
Quoting EcoTrader
Ready for the G20 showdown today and tomorrow. I am switching over to political news trading today and Sunday at Market open. Fundamentals are currently talking a back seat. You need to be able to identify when to do this and not get frustrated with the situation. Trading politics is profitable, its just a different strategy than standard fundamentals.
Which currency pairs will you be trading?
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Which currency pairs will you be trading?
Likely NZD, AUD if positive and JPY if risk off
Hello Eco! Um honest question, if the fundamentals do not work then it is better off to plan a risk-off/risk-on trade?
Quoting Alexandrize
Hello Eco! Um honest question, if the fundamentals do not work then it is better off to plan a risk-off/risk-on trade?
Not really, it depends on the situation. If politics is driving markets it can either be risk on or off. If the G20 goes well then AUD and NXD will benefit. If it goes bad they will suffer along with risk off flows. You have to assess it from a cause and effect relationship.

So here are example where it wasn't risk off

Trump election, majorly bullish for the Dollar
USMCA progress was bullish cad and peso

Here are risk off examples

Brexit
Trade war
Turkey
EU Banking crisis
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Not really, it depends on the situation. If politics is driving markets it can either be risk on or off. If the G20 goes well then AUD and NXD will benefit. If it goes bad they will suffer along with risk off flows. You have to assess it from a cause and effect relationship. So here are example where it wasn't risk off Trump election, majorly bullish for the Dollar USMCA progress was bullish cad and peso Here are risk off examples Brexit Trade war Turkey EU Banking crisis
gbpcad more drop?eurgbp short runing daily
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Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Not really, it depends on the situation. If politics is driving markets it can either be risk on or off. If the G20 goes well then AUD and NXD will benefit. If it goes bad they will suffer along with risk off flows. You have to assess it from a cause and effect relationship. So here are example where it wasn't risk off Trump election, majorly bullish for the Dollar USMCA progress was bullish cad and peso Here are risk off examples Brexit Trade war Turkey EU Banking crisis
Hmm. So it does take awhile to know what issues the markets are focusing. Thank you Eco. I think need to focus more on what you wrote down in the pdf and from the topic you wrote down as foundation for fundamental analysis which I saved before it was changed. I'll have to start with the concepts that seem to be easier to understand. Darn I really can't understand it yet. Sorry! Just need to voice out how kinda overwhelming this is. It is seems like a lot of paperwork but I'll persist. I'm eager to trade but I know I have to dial back as the news flow and research is what I am weak at.
Quoting Alexandrize
{quote} Hmm. So it does take awhile to know what issues the markets are focusing. Thank you Eco. I think need to focus more on what you wrote down in the pdf and from the topic you wrote down as foundation for fundamental analysis which I saved before it was changed. I'll have to start with the concepts that seem to be easier to understand. Darn I really can't understand it yet. Sorry! Just need to voice out how kinda overwhelming this is. It is seems like a lot of paperwork but I'll persist. I'm eager to trade but I know I have to dial back as...

Okay. So take a step back and begin with focusing on economic releases and understanding when politics takes the stage. You will notice news feeds start flooding with chatter about potitics because it won't be about economic releases, it will be talking about politicians, disputes, or negotiations. When you see this and you don't understand it then take a step back and wait until the market returns to normality. Once you have mastered news trading, you can then begin understanding and trading political news, but it isn't essential. Trade when the market suits you and not every twist and trun. For now focus on understanding the news trading system because it is the basis of swing trading and medium term trading. If you can do this then you will be well on your way to becoming successful. If you don't understand anything in the doc then let me know and I can expand on those areas.
Quoting thisara1
{quote} gbpcad more drop?eurgbp short runing daily {image}
Potentially, but the UK is currently dominated by politics so you need to account for that aspect and the uncertainty it brings. A single political headline can turn the pound hawkish or dovish to the tune of hundreds of pips. Your focus on cad is a good as it is currently the only hawkish central bank out of the majors but is subject to effects of oil news.

This week will be about the de-escalation on the trade front with a restart of negotiations. Trump also eased pressure on Huawei so we should see NZD and AUD bid but I haven't yet fully done my analysis on all aspects so this assessment is subject to change and I will post on it either tonight or tomorrow.

Are you looking at swing trading?
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Okay. So take a step back and begin with focusing on economic releases and understanding when politics takes the stage. You will notice news feeds start flooding with chatter about potitics because it won't be about economic releases, it will be talking about politicians, disputes, or negotiations. When you see this and you don't understand it then take a step back and wait until the market returns to normality. Once you have mastered news trading, you can then begin understanding and trading political news, but it isn't essential. Trade...
Thank you for this. This is really helpful because it clears up a lot. No further questions at the moment.
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} Potentially, but the UK is currently dominated by politics so you need to account for that aspect and the uncertainty it brings. A single political headline can turn the pound hawkish or dovish to the tune of hundreds of pips. Your focus on cad is a good as it is currently the only hawkish central bank out of the majors but is subject to effects of oil news. This week will be about the de-escalation on the trade front with a restart of negotiations. Trump also eased pressure on Huawei so we should see NZD and AUD bid but I haven't yet fully...
intarday trading markert profile base trading ECO
Some news for cad,the only central bank currently with a slightly hawkish outook. Just be aware that trade demand globally is down and that means demand for oil will be less so gains will be capped.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia...r-201906290921

The markets got what they expected with a de-escalation of trade war, Easing on Huawei, and trumps visit to meet rocket man at the North Korean border. This should be positive for risk sentiment and we could see gaps up on AUD, NZD, and CAD. Beware however that we didn't get any breakthrough as far as trade is concerned but this wasn't expected although it should cap the potential risk on gains. I will be looking at Market open to see what the prices are market is doing before deciding on any trades. This is a busy week on the calendar and will be sufficient opportunity to bag profit.
Quoting EcoTrader
Some news for cad,the only central bank currently with a slightly hawkish outook. Just be aware that trade demand globally is down and that means demand for oil will be less so gains will be capped. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russia...r-201906290921 The markets got what they expected with a de-escalation of trade war, Easing on Huawei, and trumps visit to meet rocket man at the North Korean border. This should be positive for risk sentiment and we could...
Keep in mind that in Canada is Canada day tomorrow which is July,1,2019 and Banks are closed. I will not be looking at CAD tomorrow. But other pairs will.
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Keep in mind that in Canada is Canada day tomorrow which is July,1,2019 and Banks are closed. I will not be looking at CAD tomorrow. But other pairs will.
Gday

Daily Canadian fx spot volume is about 20 billion while the UK is about 750 billion. I am still very much game on so long as USA, UK, and EU aren't also on holiday. You having a good weekend?
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