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Spotting EURUSD Breakouts only

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 27, 2019 5:05am Jun 27, 2019 5:05am
How easy or difficult is it to trade selectively and make handsome part-time income consistently?

I think at least 10 weekly chances can be spotted when EURUSD breaks out or breaks down and leaves 120 to 200 pips in a week' s time.
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  • #2
  • Jun 27, 2019 5:10am Jun 27, 2019 5:10am
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Around 18 out of 52 weekly bars offered 100+ pips opportunities in last 12 months
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  • #3
  • Jun 27, 2019 5:28am Jun 27, 2019 5:28am
Working out margin required .
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  • #4
  • Jun 27, 2019 5:35am Jun 27, 2019 5:35am
If there is a breakdown of 120 pips, what will be the profit?
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  • #5
  • Edited 7:07am Jun 27, 2019 6:03am | Edited 7:07am
You have to demo trade at least for a year.

Your target should be to hit a profit of at least $2,410 in maximum 12 attempts.

$241 return on an investment of $682 in maximum of 10 trading days should be the goal.

You are allowed to take loss only for three trades.

For each attempt keep 40 pips as the Stop Loss.

If your breakout/breakdown trade does not oblige you three times in a row , you will lose $ 241.

If that happens , take a break for 3 months and resume demo trading.

In two years you will be ready to go live and make $2410 by trading in maximum of 120 days. Your return with an investment of $682 will be 1,200 per cent in a year. The risk will be $241 or risk reward will be 1 : 10.

It is quite challenging but you will enjoy it like an educational game and ultimately become an accomplished breakout trader. That's for sure.
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  • #6
  • Edited 7:10am Jun 27, 2019 6:20am | Edited 7:10am
Trading requires:
1. Reason or why should I do trade?
Technical or fundamental or both?

2. Timing or what could be probable trigger? How many triggers you can mark in a year based on historical data?

3. Exit plan: How quickly to exit so that I don't keep the position exposed for long?

4. It is important to classify trading events in two classes:
(a) Known events or opportunities
(b) unknown events you can't anticipate

Treat breakout as a trading opportunity that delivers a shock of 120 to 180 pips and you should be a beneficiary of the shock.

Don't get trapped in the aftermath of the shock. It is painful. Conserve your energies in mastering to be on the right side of the shock rather than fritter away your energy on learning how to deal with the pain. Believe me it's not worth it because you need deep pockets to cure the pain.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #7
  • Jun 27, 2019 6:23am Jun 27, 2019 6:23am
Let us work on becoming masters of breakout trading.

Any suggestions on how do we go about?
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  • #8
  • Jun 27, 2019 8:29am Jun 27, 2019 8:29am
Quoting simnz
Trading requires: 1. Reason or why should I do trade? Technical or fundamental or both? 2. Timing or what could be probable trigger? How many triggers you can mark in a year based on historical data? 3. Exit plan: How quickly to exit so that I don't keep the position exposed for long? 4. It is important to classify trading events in two classes: (a) Known events or opportunities (b) unknown events you can't anticipate Treat breakout as a trading opportunity that delivers a shock of 120 to 180 pips and you should be a beneficiary of the shock. Don't...
Fundamentals analysis
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=638303
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  • #9
  • Jun 27, 2019 8:36am Jun 27, 2019 8:36am
Quoting simnz
Trading requires: Treat breakout as a trading opportunity that delivers a shock of 120 to 180 pips and you should be a beneficiary of the shock. Don't get trapped in the aftermath of the shock. It is painful. Conserve your energies in mastering to be on the right side of the shock rather than fritter away your energy on learning how to deal with the pain. Believe me it's not worth it because you need deep pockets to cure the pain.
Details:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...90#post4785490
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  • #10
  • Jun 30, 2019 10:49pm Jun 30, 2019 10:49pm
One can't tap the opportunity to earn during breakout unless being mentally strong.
With trading experience, it can be gained.
  • #11
  • Jul 4, 2019 10:14am Jul 4, 2019 10:14am
Quoting FoIlko
One can't tap the opportunity to earn during breakout unless being mentally strong. With trading experience, it can be gained.
You really have to be mentally strong as well have deep pockets to take care of an uncertain drawdown as long as you are trading spot fx.

So you choose an instrument which gives you :

(a) quite a few chances to be proven wrong without having a stop loss

(b) a longer duration of time to gain back opportunity to win the race.

(c) Your loss risk, breakeven point and probable gains are known in advance.

Can you identify such an instrument of the forex market?

Breakout or breakdown strategy works well when trading that instrument.
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  • #12
  • Jul 4, 2019 10:53am Jul 4, 2019 10:53am
Quoting simnz
{quote} You really have to be mentally strong as well have deep pockets to take care of an uncertain drawdown as long as you are trading spot fx. So you choose an instrument which gives you : (a) quite a few chances to be proven wrong without having a stop loss (b) a longer duration of time to gain back opportunity to win the race. (c) Your loss risk, breakeven point and probable gains are known in advance. Can you identify such an instrument of the forex market? Breakout or breakdown strategy works well when trading that instrument.
That instrument is currency options or currency future options.

You can read about it in another of my threads:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12310392
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  • #13
  • Jul 4, 2019 11:17am Jul 4, 2019 11:17am
Be patient. Wait for breakout setups!
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  • #14
  • Jul 4, 2019 11:22am Jul 4, 2019 11:22am
Assessing fundamentals is akin to reading the mind of the market.
You should set up push-up points where the market is likely to trigger volatility or breakouts.
It makes you aware of what lies ahead in your quest for locating probable trading points.
It is one of the few tools that could be profitably employed to forecast probabilities.
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  • #15
  • Edited 12:13pm Jul 4, 2019 11:32am | Edited 12:13pm
I select pairs for their overriding economic reasons as well as their mean-reverting tendencies.

I use statistical studies for studying mean-reversion patterns.

I would avoid pairs which probably could be locked in a tug-of-war kind of situation.

I am not ready to inflict upon myself the pain of getting caught in consolidation or a flat market.

Hit and Run is my goal. Not Do or Die. No Stop Loss for me. So my favoured instrument is bought currency futures options because it gives me a lot of chances to be wrong without losing money entirely unless I am caught in a multi-year trading adjustment exercise.

I use economic calendars to mark my trading triggers.

Since I am into a business which largely involves guessing and exploring probabilities, I don't overlook the probability of losing as well when the market turns against my forecast.
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  • #16
  • Jul 4, 2019 12:12pm Jul 4, 2019 12:12pm
Quoting simnz
I select pairs for their overriding economic reasons as well as their mean-reverting tendencies. I use statistical studies for studying mean-reversion patterns. I would avoid pairs which probably could be locked in a tug-of-war kind of situation. I am not ready to inflict the pain of getting caught in consolidation or a flat market. Hit and Run is my goal. Not Do or Die. No Stop Loss for me. So my favoured instrument is bought currency futures options because it gives me a lot of chances to be wrong without losing money entirely...
I don't use any indicator to provide me signals.
I just use them to visualise where I am at present and where I could probably be heading into.
Main reason or logic for my trading is whether there is a trigger for trading or not.

It could be a fundamental known event or an interplay of currency strength of different pairs or the trends facing fatigue. Or a combination of all the reasons.

Some of the tools help you find out if the price is overstretched or not

Following template/tools could be useful in figuring out whether to move or not.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12357663

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=920925
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  • #17
  • Jul 4, 2019 12:24pm Jul 4, 2019 12:24pm
Fishing in the troubled waters!

A financial trader has to think like an angler. The two most important factors that an angler considers are:
Selection of a venue and time to fish. In other words, the angler takes a look at the weather and the tide.
An angler ponders over a few simple questions:
Which will be a good time to fish? As the old saying goes, the early bird catches the worm. However, the night owl catches the fish, and fish taste a lot better than worms.
It is important to find probable hot hours or hot days depending on the style of trading - whether it is spotting probabilities for breakouts, day trading or swing trading.

You can ask yourself some of such questions and plan trade setups that you think you can do differently from the crowd and gain an edge.
Are the fish likely to be present? Probability based on past patterns
Am I picking a suitable tide? Price location
Is the weather suitable for the venue? Pre-economic events or Point of Initiation (decision making).

What exactly are fundamentals?

If you have ever watched the sea while you are fishing you will appreciate its immense power.
Waves and swell travel over the oceans, and they are echoes of the weather, boat traffic and movement of the sea sometimes transferred across thousands of miles.
It is important that you make yourself aware of fundamentals that can trigger price changes.
What is coming up and what may unfold and how can you take advantage?
Keeping tabs on geopolitical events and economic report releases is essential. You get a picture of what is in store for you in terms of waves, boat traffic and movement of the sea.
Have you ever wondered why some anglers always seem to be in the right place at the right time and always catch all the fish? This is the crux of my simple strategy.
Currency trading is full of uncertainty yet it is quite vibrant and so offers rich opportunities to build wealth fast.
But only for those who understand what random trading and probabilities mean.
In terms of making money when your forecasts favour you.
Or accepting to take a loss when the forecasts go wrong.
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  • #18
  • Jul 5, 2019 7:31am Jul 5, 2019 7:31am
A good observation on fundamentals analysis:

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post12348333
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  • #19
  • Jul 6, 2019 7:00am Jul 6, 2019 7:00am
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If all the three UK data releases are positives, GBP will go up.
If GDP is good but tampered by other bad news, then the stalemate will continue.
GBP is now looking for a trigger to go up or down.
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  • #20
  • Jul 7, 2019 3:39am Jul 7, 2019 3:39am
Trading on perceived news is a sort of dice game. It is of no help in spotting breakout.

For spotting breakout or breakdown it is important to wait for the news t be released and see the market response to it.

Having done some preparation on fundamentals, you may have a bias but that alone is not the reason to do pre-news trading.
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