Trading fx fundamentals

It's owned by City, you could make it yourself by deriving the deviations in data into points and chatting it. I havent yet found the formulas they use though, I need to see if they have an info pack on the index like stoxx does for theirs (containing everything about it)

hellow ECO what;s watching pair trading today?

Right now watching audcad and looking for usd pullbacks

June 25

First up is US consumer confidence which is a leading indicator and red on the calendar but isn't on the FED red flag list. Here is a recap of the FED's focal points

 

1. Global growth
2. Trade uncertainties
3. Employment (Powell said employment needs watching with recent softness )
4. Inflation
5. Business investment

Even though it is not on their focus list, they are heavily data dependent and will be watching all aspects of the economy, especially leading indicators of consumer spending. A major deviation on the weaker side could kick start more dollar selling and add another nail to the rate cut which has a 57% probability according to the fed watch tool.


Later we hear from Powell which has the potential to move the market. In the portal, you can go over everything he said up until now so that it is fresh in your mind for the speech. If he changes his tone or adds new information then we should see some dollar action. Mostly, however, he is expected to repeat what he has already said.

Note: The dollar as you have noticed has been selling off since Powell and there should be plenty of technical opportunities. Watch out though for a good consumer sentiment reading as it might water the action down until Powell.

today Fed Chair Powell Speaks possible pullback usd?

Powell would have to change his tone for it to produce a pullback. What i am looking for is potentially $ profit taking ahead of that speech and then get in. There is also a chance he just regurgitates the same message - the most likely outcome, and should he be more dovish than last time, the $ will just continue to sell off.

I am watching AUDCAD too and looks like it will go down but will see.

USD CB consumer confidence 121.5 lower then forecast. Declined in June. EURUSD should go up anytime now. Powell speech should be dovish, having EURUSD push even higher today.

I think what is happening right now is, EURUSD is going to go sideways. Waiting for Powell speech to confirm the uptrend, possibly dovish and EURUSD will shoot up to 1.1450 or higher.

Possibly going to 1.1340 before going up when Powell speech news comes out.

There is also focus on the G20 this week and its a big one in terms of new information on the China\US trade tensions. I took a long eurusd earlier but the trade was terminated as it took too long to make progress. Right now i am sitting tight.

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/92...ke-a-good-time

Some small speech news to push down to 1.1340 before going up? Or maybe a confirmation that EURUSD is falling ? We will see. BUt they wont cut more than 0.50 so looks like EURUSD bearish.

Bullard was the only one to vote for a cut at the meeting so it never was going to happen in any case. Not unless the shit hits the fan. To me this is looking like the retrace I have been waiting for. Its right on Powell so let's see what he says

He is regurgitating the same information

Looks like EURUSD bearish.

Not by much and nothing being said changes the picture (yet). It does provide more context to Last week however, I like the questions being asked.

True. You mentioned earlier it looks like a pullback and it does. Looks like EURUSD bullish. USD looks weak.

US official cited by Reuters:

 

1. US would like China to return to where it was before talks broke down
2. There's a 'pretty good chance' trade talks will restart after meeting
3. No broad deal is expected at G20
4. Trump-Xi meeting will take place Saturday
5. Liu He still leading Chinese delegation but new names, including possible hard liners, have been added
6. Trump believes US dollar is too strong and euro is too weak
7. If Fed took back rate hike from last Fall, the dollar would be less strong
8. Trump expected to interview several finalists for open Fed seats
9. White House has no plans to demote Powell
10. Huawei could come up at Trump-Xi meeting

Ecotrader, please give us your thoughts on the news and what do you think where is EURUSD going, thank you.

my view

Be careful. As this could be a pullback to 1.1340 area which it did, now it's at 1.1375 area.

I'm holding my view on this as being a pullback. I can't see any reasoning for the picture to change but I am cautious of the market holding out for the G20.